Originally posted on The Pass Rush  |  Last updated 10/31/11


WEEK 8 SUMMARY

The posted picks went 1-2 ATS this week, but I dominated the pick ‘em league with an 8-4 ATS record. I now sit in 8th among the 32 active teams with a 57-51 record ATS. Well played by The Vaidya Twist who now ranks 1st ahead of perenial favorites Deez Nuts and Mempis Gangstas. Although I missed on the Saints and Panthers picks, I made some of that back with my 4:00 pick thanks to an easy win with the Bengals (-3) over the Seahawks.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-3.5) @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Tonight’s Monday Night game is between AFC West rivals, Kansas City Chiefs and San Diego Chargers. When was the last time the Chiefs had a Monday Night home game? Oh that’s right, that was last year when the Chiefs upset the Chargers in the opening week 21-14 as 4-point dogs. The Kansas City crowd will be jacked up again for this one. King posted why he likes the Chiefs. He makes some compelling arguments.

For purposes of the pick ‘em league, I’ll stick with the Chargers (-3.5). As far as my money is concerned, I will be passing on the game, as I don’t want to take the Chargers (-3.5) on the road on Monday Night. You know the rule: don’t bet against a home dog on Monday Night (unless Tom Brady is playing the Dolphins). I’m not sold on the Chiefs (+3.5), but if you tease the spread up to Chiefs (+10.5) with the over 37, it makes the game more interesting for me.

I have a bit of a gut feeling that this will be a high-scoring contest. Maybe it’s just wishful thinking since I have Philip Rivers, Ryan Matthews, and Dwayne Bowe all left to start on my fantasy team and I find myself down by 16 points. However, if you look at the injury notes for tonight’s game, you’ll see why a higher scoring contest can be in the works.

The Chargers defense has been hurt by the injury bug. Not only did they lose DE Luis Castillo early in the season, but they just lost their best  playmaker at linebacker. San Diego’s sack leader in LB Shaun Phillips is ruled out of the Monday Night game with a foot injury and LB Larry English was also recently placed on the IR.

With the Chargers losing their two best players at generating pressure, I’m liking the Matt Cassel to Dwayne Bowe connection. Bowe has had three 100+ receiving yard games thus far this season. Although the Chiefs struggled early on after losing Eric Berry on defense and then Jamaal Charles on offense, they’ve put up three-straight wins and have been gaining some momentum.

The Chargers, on the other hand, have fans questioning what’s wrong with them despite their 4-2 record. Their four wins have not been impressive as they were against teams that the Chargers should have blown out: Minnesota, Kansas City, Miami, and Denver. The Chargers 2-4 ATS record tells you how this team has performed compared to expectations. Compare that to the Chiefs 4-2 ATS record.

Tonight’s over/under is 44. As I mentioned, my fantasy lineup is compelling me to root for the over. Coupled with the loss of Eric Berry on the Chiefs defense and the loss of the Chargers top two playmakers at generating sacks and pressure, I think you have the makings of what could potentially be more of an offensive game.

Could this be the week that the Chargers offense gets going? Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson are healthy again. That should give the Chargers offense the spark they’re looking for. The Chargers are averaging 23.5 PPG when they averaged 27.6 PPG last year and led the league in offensive yards. This year they’re ranked 8th in yards per game.

I’m expecting a three-t0-four point game somewhere in the range of 24-20. I think the Chiefs can pull off the upset, but I still like the Chargers to win since they’re more talented than the Chiefs. However, with the Chargers on the road in a hostile road environment on Halloween, I just cannot recommend Chargers (-3.5). With Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates healthy again, Philip Rivers is poised to right the Chargers offensive woes, but I’ll stick with the home dog on Monday Night theory and tease up the points for an extra cushion. I’ll have to recommend  teasing Chiefs to +10.5 and taking the over 37 points. I wouldn’t be shocked by a Chargers domination though. There’s a lot of question marks in tonight’s game, so I’ll likely end up passing.

Prediction: Chargers 24 – Chiefs 20

Free Pick Against the Spread: Chiefs +10.5/Over 37

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