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Is Cutler signing an ominous sign for Tannehill, Moore?
Could Jay Cutler remain with the Miami Dolphins past 2017? Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Is Cutler signing an ominous sign for Tannehill, Moore?

There are several conclusions to be drawn from the Miami Dolphins signing Jay Cutler, none of them particularly encouraging.

For one, it’s fair to wonder why Miami wanted a starter-level quarterback with name recognition in the first place. That’s even before you get into whatever rationale exists for choosing Cutler over Colin Kaepernick. With Matt Moore on the roster, the Dolphins already had a QB with plenty of starting experience to relieve the injured Ryan Tannehill.

Moore has been one of the league’s best backups for years and arguably played better than Tannehill down the stretch for Miami in 2016. One thing he doesn’t have, however, is star power. Cutler brings name recognition, if not a pronounced improvement in quarterback play. Matt Moore is a hard sell to drum up excitement going into a regular season. Having Cutler means there’s at least some anticipation for how he will fare, a selling point for casual fans. The hardcore ones may not be impressed, but they’re already locked in anyway.

Adding yet another well-known passer is either a cheap ploy for publicity or a desperate attempt to go for broke in the last season before contracts will force the team to make some drastic changes in the upcoming offseason. It could signal that the team is ready to move on from the status quo of the past few years.

Tannehill signed a six-year deal in 2015, except the Dolphins have the ability to opt out of that deal before the fifth day of the 2018 league year next spring. Even after that, only $5.5 million of his $19.8 million 2018 salary is guaranteed. In other words, it wouldn’t be exceedingly difficult for Miami to cut ties with the 29-year-old who was taken in the first round in 2012.

In 2016, Tannehill posted a career-best 93.5 rating, good enough to rank 12th among starters in the league. Adam Gase has been known as something of a quarterback whisperer, and it should be noted that he got a performance out of Moore in late 2016 that was better than his career numbers and arguably superior to what Tannehill had posted through the first three-quarters of the regular season. Cutler showed improvement under Gase in 2015 with the Bears under fairly dire straits. Yet the ceiling for their work together isn’t much higher than what Moore showed last season.

A December injury that was initially thought to be an ACL tear kept Tannehill out of the Dolphins’ first playoff appearance since he was drafted. The severity of the injury wasn’t as bad as feared, but missing a playoff start was an especially unfortunate development for a QB who, fair or not, has long been associated with middling teams that couldn’t crack the postseason.

Tannehill certainly isn’t a bust. In many ways, though, being in the middle ground of NFL starters is even worse. Teams get mired sticking with a quarterback who is either average or just inadequate enough not to elevate a middling supporting cast. Miami has been waiting a few years for Tannehill to take the next step. Incremental improvement is there, but it doesn't make a team a Super Bowl contender.

Cutler isn’t the answer, of course. He’s 34 years old and admittedly out of shape. Depending on which season you’re examining, he’s either marginally worse or marginally better than Tannehill. He’s in the same ballpark and arriving at a time just before Miami needs to do some roster restructuring. Ndamukong Suh’s cap hit is about to head north of $26 million. Having Cutler at a reasonably reduced rate for a starter means the team has the flexibility to add him for one more year, possibly as a stopgap starter for a rookie drafted in 2018.

The timetable for Tannehill’s return seems to be shifting. Reports have indicated it could be six to eight weeks before he comes back, or the situation may call for season-ending surgery. If it’s the former, why bring in Cutler and effectively make Moore completely useless for nearly two-thirds of the season? If it’s the latter, it’s difficult to imagine Miami continuing to invest in a 30-year-old quarterback who hadn’t finished the previous two seasons when it would make more economic sense to cut ties with both him and Suh and rebuild.

Tannehill has been fine. NFL teams are seldom willing to settle for fine, especially one whose search for the next star quarterback has defined the last two decades of its existence.

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