Originally posted on The Football Fan Spot  |  Last updated 9/6/13

NEW ORLEANS - JANUARY 24: Adrian Peterson #28 of the Minnesota Vikings runs the ball against the New Orleans Saints during the NFC Championship Game at the Louisana Superdome on January 24, 2010 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0) The Lions and Vikings are among the teams I picked to have big win changes, the Lions in a positive direction and the Vikings in a negative direction. Part of this has to do with the fact that the two teams did the opposite last season, with the Lions going from 10 wins to 4 and the Vikings going from 3 wins to 10. Ordinarily, we can expect teams that have big win changes to have an opposite change of about half the following season, so a 6 win decrease is, on average, followed by a 3 win increase. This is because the NFL has such a short season that, when teams have big win changes, it has more to do with bad or good luck than an actual change in talent level. However, that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Both teams have other signs of impending win changes. The Lions won just 4 games last year despite outgaining opponents by the 2nd most yardage in the NFL, by over 1000 yards. This is largely because they surrendered a ridiculous 70 po...
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