Originally written on Awful Announcing  |  Last updated 4/26/13
2010-sports-illustrated
With this year by all accounts being one of the most muddled, unpredictable NFL Drafts, what better time than this to examine just how much of an expert the alleged NFL Draft experts truly are.  In this day and age, nearly every NFL fan with access to a keyboard and the internet attempts to project the 31st pick in the NFL Draft with the accuracy of Joe Bauserman.  (What you thought I would make a Tebow joke, there?) Mock drafts are a dime a dozen and taking them with a grain of salt may be giving too much credence to these prognostications.  While guys like Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, and Mike Mayock have made a career out of studying the drafts, you might be surprised with just how much of an inexact science proves to be.  Between trades shaking up the 1st Round order, smokescreens, and players rising or falling, projections from respected national writers and draft experts fall well below the Mendoza line. Wednesday night I compiled 12 mock drafts from around the internet from ESPN, NFL Network, NFL.com, Yahoo, CBS, Bleacher Report, and more.  These results were the most recent mock draft published at that time and excluded any draft day changes a mocker could make in the hours leading up to the event. You can find all the results from our Mocking the Mocks Database at this link with the final scoreboard and additional notes below.   Mike Mayock, NFL Network: 27/32 players selected, 8 slotted correctly. Todd McShay, ESPN: 27/32 players selected, 4 slotted correctly. Mel Kiper, ESPN: 26/32 players selected, 6 slotted correctly. Bob McGinn, Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel: 26/32 players selected, 6 slotted correctly. Walter Football: 26/32 players selected, 3 slotted correctly. Peter Schrager, Fox Sports: 26/32 players selected, 1 slotted correctly. Mike Florio, PFT: 25/32 players selected, 6 slotted correctly. Doug Farrar, Yahoo: 25/32 players selected, 1 slotted correctly. Gil Brandt, NFL.com: 24/32 players selected, 1 slotted correctly. Peter King, NFL.com: 24/32 players selected, 1 slotted correctly. Matt Miller, Bleacher Report: 24/32 players selected, 1 slotted correctly. Pete Prisco, CBS: 23/32 players selected, 2 slotted correctly. Congrats to Mike Mayock on correctly mocking just 25% of the NFL Draft's 1st Round and being far and away the most skilled mocker.  Incredibly, multiple NFL writers at major national outlets could only muster one, yes, one pick slotted correctly at the right pick.  One.  Uno.  Peter King and Gil Brandt's lone correct pick was Jarvis Jones going to the Steelers at #17, which was actually the pick nailed most often with 7 of 12 correctly projecting.  Other notes... -If you followed the mock drafts, Sharrif Floyd's drop to Pick #23 would have been a shock. 10 of our 12 mockers had Floyd in the Top 3.  Only Pete Prisco had Floyd slipping out of the Top 10. -Prisco, Florio, and Schrager were the only 3 to have Manti Te'o falling out of the 1st Round. -Just 4 out of the 12 had Eric Fisher going #1 overall to Kansas City on the eve of the draft (Mayock, McGinn, Florio, Farrar).  The other 8 had Luke Joeckel going first. -Only Mel Kiper Jr. had neither Geno Smith or Ryan Nassib going in Round 1.  Smith was mocked as high as #2 overall (Matt Miller) and Nassib as high as #8 overall (McShay, Walter, McGinn, Florio).  Nobody had E.J. Manuel in their 1st Round mocks. -In terms of the "best picks" Mel Kiper was the only one to correctly project D.J. Fluker to San Diego and Datone Jones to Green Bay.  Only Mike Mayock had Jonathan Cooper to the Cardinals and Bob McGinn was the only pundit to predict D.J. Hayden to the Jets. -If you're really paying attention to mock drafts and using them as a guide for what will happen in Round 1, stop midway through.  After Jarvis Jones to Pittsburgh, there were a total of 5 correctly slotted picks out of 180 possible or just 2.77%. Perhaps it should be clear now more than ever that mock drafts should be consumed for entertainment purposes only and not for any kind of consistent projection tool.  Let's leave that to Joe Lunardi.
GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Three things to watch for on Hard Knocks with the Texans

Pierre-Paul could face charges for possession of fireworks

Report: Warriors trade David Lee to Celtics for Gerald Wallace

Rivers believes Gates' PED use was unintentional

Favre felt 'bothered' by Green Bay's decision to trade him

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Ned Yost explains Alex Rodriguez’s All-Star Game snub

Donovan McNabb arrested for DUI after rear-ending car

It is progress time for the Philadelphia 76ers

Andrew Luck talks Super Bowl hopes and Patriots

Rapper rips David West for taking pay cut to join Spurs

Report: Kevin Garnett will return for 21st NBA season

Tigers should accept reality and become trade deadline sellers

5 running backs who could break the Heisman Trophy streak

Roy Halladay snaps selfie while getting a speeding ticket

National Basketball Players Association to set up heath insurance for retirees

'Corrected' 2015 MLB All-Star Game picks

NHL expansion process begins, application cutoff set for Aug. 10

Cardinals send rookies to Starbucks to pick up order

Mark Cuban fined for discussing Matthews and Jordan deals

Baseball's most productive low-authority hitters of all-time

USWNT's World Cup triumph four years in the making

Cubs announcer defends saying 'no-hitter' during game

MLB scout hiring and pay practices challenged in lawsuit

NFL News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

5 RBs who could break the Heisman Trophy streak

Watch to watch on Hard Knocks with the Texans

Tigers should become trade deadline sellers

JPP could face criminal charges?

'Corrected' 2015 MLB All-Star Game picks

MLB's 2015 All-Star snubs

Gronk, David Ortiz in latest Dunkin Donuts iced coffee video

The 2015 All-Star reserves & pitchers

Are LeBron, Cavs just playing teenage games?

Bucks threatens move to Vegas, Seattle

Bryce Harper to skip Home Run Derby

Video shows De'Andre Johnson punching woman

Today's Best Stuff
For Bloggers

Join the Yardbarker Network for more promotion, traffic, and money.

Company Info
Help
What is Yardbarker?

Yardbarker is the largest network of sports blogs and pro athlete blogs on the web. This site is the hub of the Yardbarker Network, where our editors and algorithms curate the best sports content from our network and beyond.