MVN Chiefs Draft Preview: Linebackers (and Why it Won't Be Aaron Curry)

I still think it's interesting that Aaron Curry is still the favorite among most mock drafts to be the Chiefs' #3 pick in 2009. I've written about this before, but let me briefly tell you why this doesn't make any sense and then go a little more in-depth. In short, Aaron Curry is a great top 5 pick if a team is running a 4-3 defense. In a 3-4 defense, Curry would be placed at an Inside Linebacker (ILB) position, which carries far lower positional value. He is NOT going to play outside linebacker in a 3-4. We'll explain why in a second.As I mentioned in a previous post, the Chiefs will be running a hybrid 3-4/4-3 defense. However, this is likely just a transition period defense until the Chiefs get enough personnel to fully run a 3-4. The reason I'm convinced of this is it simply doesn't make any sense to carry personnel for two very distinct defenses. You need to focus on one defense and build off of it. And so, if the Chiefs are building toward a 3-4 defense, that means they need to draft players that they believe can play in a 3-4 defense a few years down the road.The two positions with the highest positional value for a 3-4 are probably nose tackle and 3-4 OLB. Now, granted, these guys are often drafted in the middle of the first round or later, but don't be deceived. The reason these guys typically fall is because there are only a handful of teams that run a 3-4 and most of those teams don't get picks in the top 10. And so when you see a player like Shawn Merriman or Demarcus Ware or Vince Wolfork fall out of the top 10, realize that these guys slipped largely because a 4-3 defense didn't want to gamble on one of these guys.