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NFL Week 13 predictions
Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Week 13 predictions

What would have seemed inconceivable five weeks into the season is fast becoming reality in the AFC West. The Chiefs, losers of three in a row and five of six, suddenly find themselves only a game up on the surging Chargers and persistent Raiders. Meanwhile, the Falcons have reinserted themselves into the playoff picture, winning three games in a row and looking impressive in doing so. Atlanta clashes with Minnesota in arguably the week's most interesting contest. No story, though, is bigger than Eli Manning's benching in New York, which has sent ripples throughout the NFL landscape, and incited plenty of anger towards Ben McAdoo, as well as Giants GM Jerry Reese.

 
1 of 16

Washington (-1) at Dallas

Washington (-1) at Dallas
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET (NFL Network)

No division has less intrigue than the NFC East, where an Eagles win this week clinches things for them, while Dallas and Washington struggle to stay even remotely relevant in the playoff chase. The loser of this game is all but eliminated, though a Washington win coupled with a Seahawks loss would raise some eyebrows because of the Redskins' win over Seattle a few weeks back. Kirk Cousins has been much better than the team's 5–6 record would suggest, with a passer rating of 101.1. Dallas fans, meantime, have reached the "conspiracy theory" stage while dealing with their team's plummeting fortunes. The truth is much simpler, if harder to handle. The Cowboys weren't good enough when Ezekiel Elliott was in the lineup, going 5–3, and they don't have a prayer of making a run without him.

Pick: Redskins

 
2 of 16

Minnesota at Atlanta (-3)

Minnesota at Atlanta (-3)
Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

This stands as Week 13's best game, at least on paper. It matches the team many thought would win the NFC before the season with the team many would pick right now to do that exact same thing. Matt Ryan figured to be an MVP candidate, but Case Keenum has played like one ever since Sam Bradford went down. Everson Griffen and the Vikings' defense are vicious, and have ruined game plans all season long. Atlanta's offense finally seems to be finding its stride, and Julio Jones erupted in last week's win over Tampa Bay. This game feels like a pick em', with Atlanta sitting as a slight favorite due to home field advantage. Thing of it is, Keenum and the Vikings are 4–1 on the road this year. This should be a close one, and a good one, but Minnesota will add another chapter to a great story.

Pick: Vikings

 
3 of 16

New England (-8.5) at Buffalo

New England (-8.5) at Buffalo
Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Bills temporarily stopped the bleeding and got a much-needed win over the reeling Chiefs, thrusting themselves back into the AFC playoff chase. Problem is, they still have two games left against New England, and even playing at home, they don't figure to have much of a chance. Unless Buffalo rediscovers its early-season form, manhandles Tom Brady, and forces turnovers in bunches, it's very unlikely that they'll beat or even stay close with New England. The Pats, meanwhile, just keep chugging along in workmanlike fashion, resembling more and more the team everyone expected them to be when whispers of 16–0 were thrown around before the season. New England also hasn't allowed an opponent to reach 20 points in almost two months. That trend should continue, and with it, the Pats' winning streak.

Pick: Patriots

 
4 of 16

San Francisco at Chicago (-3)

San Francisco at Chicago (-3)
Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Not a whole lot of intrigue here, at least as far as each team's record is concerned. That said, the Jimmy Garoppolo Experiment will begin in earnest, with the Niners' new acquisition getting his first start. Garoppolo was 2-for-2 and threw a touchdown in his San Francisco debut, and it will be interesting to see how much of the playbook he has internalized after about a month with the team. Mitch Trubisky has been at the controls for the Bears for seven games, and has been equal parts impressive and overwhelmed, which is what you'd expect from just about anyone in his position. Bears fans would doubtless like to see a bit more of a command performance from their rookie signal-caller, but something tells me that Garoppolo is going to make San Francisco look pretty good, and get a win.

Pick: 49ers

 
5 of 16

Tampa Bay at Green Bay (NO LINE)

Tampa Bay at Green Bay (NO LINE)
Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

It will be interesting to see if the Packers have really started to find their footing with Brett Hundley, or if his excellent performance in prime time was more a function of a porous Steelers secondary than anything else. Hundley did do a good job of moving up in the pocket and making the throws that were there against Pittsburgh, so it's very possible he's settling in. Tampa Bay has wins over Miami and the Jets in recent weeks, but anytime they've faced off against decent competition, they've gotten smashed. Atlanta and Julio Jones did quite a number on them last week. Even if Jameis Winston plays, one finds it hard to believe that the Bucs will walk into Lambeau Field in late November and walk out a winner—even without Aaron Rodgers staring back at them.

Pick: Packers

 
6 of 16

Houston at Tennessee (-6.5)

Houston at Tennessee (-6.5)
Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Something about Tennessee seems off. The Titans are 7–4, and 5–1 in their last six, the only loss being an ugly blowout at the hands of the Steelers, but they just don't pass the smell test. Tennessee's defense has been stingy in terms of allowing yards, but ranks only 20th in points against. Their offense can't be counted on to pick up that slack, at least if Marcus Mariota is forced to put the team on his shoulders. Houston has been predictably bad since Deshaun Watson was lost for the season, but they might be able to hang around in this one, especially if Tom Savage can limit his mistakes. Tennessee will struggle, especially if Mariota is as reckless with the ball as he was against Pittsburgh, but should ultimately prevail in a close one.

Pick: Texans

 
7 of 16

Denver (-1) at Miami

Denver (-1) at Miami
Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

Quite possibly the worst game of the week. If it's possible, both teams appear to be worse than their records would otherwise indicate. The Broncos give up the third fewest yards in the league defensively, but are 27th in points allowed. The only explanation for this is that their horrible offense consistently puts the defense in terrible situations. Denver is 31st in the league in both forcing and committing turnovers. That's a bad recipe, but it might not matter against Miami, a team with virtually no direction, especially on offense. The Dolphins have topped 400 yards one time all season, and have been held under 200 yards on multiple occasions. Even with Jay Cutler available, the quarterback situation is a complete mess. This is the rare game where both teams would be better served by losing, so as to boost their 2018 draft stock. Bad news for Denver fans: your team is going to win.

Pick: Broncos

 
8 of 16

Kansas City (-3.5) at New York Jets

Kansas City (-3.5) at New York Jets
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Chiefs' fall from "Super Bowl contender" to "possible non-playoff team" has been as stunning as it has been swift. Ever since the Steelers gave them their first loss, Kansas City has spiraled out of control, no longer able to hit deep shots downfield, or do anything consistently well on offense. More troubling is the fact that, after turning the ball over once in their first seven games, the Chiefs have coughed it up seven times in their last four. None of that sounds very positive, and it's quite possible that the Jets make like difficult for Andy Reid's bunch. New York is 1–5 in their last six games, but one gets the sense that Todd Bowles' team hasn't quit on him, as none of those losses has been by more than one score. Neither team is good right now, and while the Chiefs have more talent, there are plenty of reasons to question whether or not they'll pull themselves out of this funk.

Pick: Jets

 
9 of 16

Indianapolis at Jacksonville (-9.5)

Indianapolis at Jacksonville (-9.5)
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Just when everyone was about to take the Jags seriously as a dark horse AFC threat, they go and lose to Blaine Gabbert. That kind of lame duck performance is the reason why many still aren't sold on Jacksonville, even as they still appear to be the clear best team in the AFC South. A visit from the woeful Colts, fresh off a surprisingly close loss to the Titans, should be a welcome tonic. That said, Jacksonville can't seem to put together a convincing performance of late, and the Colts were able to hang around, and have been more than competitive in their two most recent road games. The variables in this one seem to point to two possible conclusions—either the Jags come out and dominate an inferior opponent and send a message to the Titans, or the Colts hang tough and perhaps steal a win. I'm tempted to take the second scenario, but then I remember that the Colts have the league's worst scoring defense.

Pick: Jaguars

 
10 of 16

Detroit at Baltimore (-2.5)

Detroit at Baltimore (-2.5)
Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

This is an interesting affair. Baltimore has, somehow, continued to hang around in the AFC playoff chase, and if the season ended today, the Ravens would be in. The Ravens' defense is fearsome, and Terrell Suggs is turning back the clock at age 35 to the tune of nine and a half sacks so far this year. That said, if the defense doesn't create favorable situations for the offense, Joe Flacco and company have shown nothing to indicate that they can consistently move the ball down the field and put points on the board. Detroit is the best team the Ravens have faced since they were soundly beaten by the Vikings over a month ago. Matthew Stafford and his receivers will present a significant challenge for Baltimore, and Stafford is the kind of guy that can win a game by himself. Baltimore hasn't seen a quarterback like that in some time. Are the Ravens really a good football team that deserves to be in the playoff picture? My mind tells me no.

Pick: Lions

 
11 of 16

Cleveland at Los Angeles Chargers (-14)

Cleveland at Los Angeles Chargers (-14)
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)

The number of people picking the Chargers to win the AFC West grows seemingly by the day, and for good reason; since starting 0–4, Los Angeles is 5–2 and playing very good football. Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen are putting up big numbers and the Bolts' defense is forcing plenty of turnovers. Cleveland should not provide much resistance, and one wonders if Jimmy Haslam and Hue Jackson thought about kidnapping A.J. McCarron when they met with him on the field prior to Cleveland's game against Cincinnati last week. Cleveland's defense isn't terrible as far as allowing yards, but it stands to reason that DeShone Kizer and the offense will hand Los Angeles the ball in some very favorable situations, and that will make it difficult for the Browns to keep things close, let alone get a win.

Pick: Chargers

 
12 of 16

New York Giants at Oakland (-7.5)

New York Giants at Oakland (-7.5)
Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Giants are the biggest mess in football at the moment, and that includes the Browns. It is one thing to bench Eli Manning—in a way, the move itself makes sense. But benching him for Geno Smith, and handling things in the tone-deaf fashion that Ben McAdoo has thus far has opened the G-Men up to plenty of righteous anger and criticism. Former Giants greats have suggested that some players on the team have quit. Other than that, things are just peachy. Derek Carr and the Raiders, who own a victory over the Chiefs already, and still have another shot at both Kansas City and Los Angeles, should have little trouble beating a team that would probably be better served to lose, anyway. The only real question in this one is whether or not the scoreboard will get merely ugly, or truly embarrassing.

Pick: Raiders

 
13 of 16

Carolina at New Orleans (-4)

Carolina at New Orleans (-4)
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

No shame for New Orleans in losing to the Rams, who proved that they are very much for real by holding serve at home, but now Drew Brees must steady his team for a game that might go a long way towards deciding the suddenly hyper-competitive NFC South. The Saints already own a win over Cam Newton and the Panthers this year, and winning again would give New Orleans a functional two-game lead over Carolina because of the tiebreaker. The Panthers found a way to beat the Jets despite being outgained by nearly 100 yards and losing the turnover battle. It is unlikely that the Saints will surrender both a special teams and a defensive touchdown in a three-minute span like the Jets did. If Carolina wants to win, they'll have to slow down Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram, but it's a pretty safe bet that New Orleans will find a way to get Kamara more than the 11 touches he saw against the Rams, even though that limited workload yielded two touchdowns and multiple big plays.

Pick: Saints

 
14 of 16

Los Angeles Rams (-7) at Arizona

Los Angeles Rams (-7) at Arizona
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Rams made a statement with their win over New Orleans, emphatically answering critics who felt their record was built on weak competition. Now, they get some actual weak competition in the form of the Cardinals, fresh off a shocking triumph over Jacksonville, but still nothing to write home about. This feels like a real opportunity for the Rams to flex their offensive muscle in a big way, even with Robert Woods still out. The crowd in Arizona shouldn't be much of a factor, and even though there's some real talent in the Cardinals' secondary, Jared Goff is playing at a level that suggests he can slice and dice any opponent, regardless of quality. Arizona might keep things close for a half or so, but the Rams should pull away and get an easy win in advance of a possible NFC Championship Game preview against the Eagles.

Pick: Rams

 
15 of 16

Philadelphia (-6) at Seattle

Philadelphia (-6) at Seattle
James Lang-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET (NBC)

Do the Seahawks have anything left? For four weeks, they've alternated wins and losses, beating two bad teams and falling to better ones. They have been beset by injuries to key pieces, and it would not be shocking to see them lose this game and their next two, against Jacksonville and the Rams. Russell Wilson has continued to play at a very high level, though he hasn't gotten much media attention for it, but his being Seattle's leading rusher is not a good sign. The Eagles, conversely, can clinch the NFC East with a win, and can take one more step towards home field throughout the NFC playoffs, though the Vikings refuse to go away in that chase. Carson Wentz is playing at an MVP level, LeGarrette Blount is running hard, the Birds have plenty of receiving threats, and their defense is as destructive as any in the league. There is no reason to suggest that a team this well-rounded, this dominant, isn't capable of going on the road, even in a famously hostile environment, and handling its business.

Pick: Eagles

 
16 of 16

Pittsburgh (-5) at Cincinnati

Pittsburgh (-5) at Cincinnati
Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Mike Tomlin made headlines when he made reference to the "elephant in the room"—that being the Steelers' December 17 showdown with New England. The Bengals were doubtless not happy about that, as they're still in the thick of the playoff race in the AFC. An upset win would go a long way towards helping save Marvin Lewis' job, which appears to be in some jeopardy after years of speculation to that end. Vontaze Burfict will no doubt be extra amped up to play the team he hates the most. Pittsburgh's offense is rounding into form in a big way, with Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell all performing at a high level, and Martavis Bryant finally getting back into the act. The big question for Pittsburgh is in the secondary, where Joe Haden's injury and Artie Burns' poor play of late have raised significant questions. Can Andy Dalton take advantage of that? Maybe. Can the Bengals stop Pittsburgh enough for it to matter? Unlikely.

Pick: Steelers

Chris Mueller is the co-host of The PM Team with Poni & Mueller on Pittsburgh's 93.7 The Fan, Monday-Friday from 2-6 p.m. ET. Owner of a dog with a Napoleon complex, consumer of beer, cooker of chili, closet Cleveland Browns fan. On Twitter at @ChrisMuellerPGH – please laugh.

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