The 2009 Philadelphia Eagles: ready for ignition, but doubts about liftoff....

This is the annual article when you predict where your hometown team will end up in January, and you know it's a biased opinion, but you have to at least pretend you're looking at your team objectively. Oh, I want to buy into the hype we got from the Athlon Sports preseason magazines and the ESPN pundits who were predicting an Eagles-Patriots Super Bowl back in July. But now I'm not so sure. Let's face it, it takes three things to win it all in the NFL these days: a great defense, a solid offensive line, and a great combination of quarterback, running backs and wide receivers. I thought the Eagles had it all this year until training camp broke. Suddenly we were faced with an offensive line that was falling apart around us, with RT Shawn Andrews' back problems an unending drama of suspense. It's gotten so bad now that the Eagles are working out former veteran RT Jon Runyan, who's still recovering from microfracture knee surgery in the offseason. Winston Justice is supposed to back up Shawn Andrews at RT, but now Winston's hurt, having suffered a pectoral muscle tear in the final preseason game against the Jets. Bottom line: the Eagles are exposed at Right Tackle, and maybe even Left Tackle, on offense. That wasn't in the master plan. Originally the idea was to let the old veterans like Tra Thomas and Jon Runyan go off to pasture while we revamped the offensive line with youngblood All-Pro-caliber talents like Jason Peters at LT, Shawn Andrews at RT, and Shawn's brother Stacey as a back-up for either position. It looked so good on paper. But now it's blown up in our faces. Jason Peters has not looked even close to the form he displayed as an All-Pro LT for the Buffalo Bills. Shawn Andrews, who could be All-World at RT when he's healthy, is apparently destined for the eternal chiropractic clinic of bad backs---and trust me, I have total sympathy for his dilemma. If you've ever had a bad back which defies diagnosis, you have to know the frustration and pain he's going through. You can't do anything with a bad back---not football, not golf, not take out the trash, nothing... And starting OG Todd Herremans is out indefinitely with an ankle injury. Without a solid, dependable offensive line, Donovan McNabb could be destroyed...and if McNabb is injured and cannot play for a stretch of games, all bets on the Eagles are off. The only hope is that the Eagles' healthy backup linemen, like veterans Max Jean-Gilles, Nick Cole, Mike McGlynn, and King Dunlap, can step up their games and fill the gaps left by the injured, departed and the absent anchors of last year. But face it, if you're working out old man Runyan on the side, it doesn't look like the Eagles are confident their OL reserves are completely up to the task. If the "Red Cross"-version of the Eagles OL can somehow just manage to give McNabb the time he needs to find his top-flight talented receivers DeSean Jackson, Jason Avant and Kevin Curtis downfield, then maybe the questions about the big names who may be missing on the OL will be moot. And maybe, just maybe, rookie WR and #1 draft pick Jeremy Maclin will get over his inital NFL jitters and turn into the opposite-side wide receiver bookend of Jackson. It was a steal for the Eagles when they traded up to get Maclin in the draft. A lot of scouts liked Maclin better than Michael Crabtree. And most scouts agree: nobody in the NFC East can cover second-year WR DeSean Jackson. If Jackson runs that "go route", forget it--- you're not going to be able to cover him one-on-one. You'll need some safety help. And that's going to open up a lot of other passing options for McNabb, like Kevin Curtis in the middle or Jason Avant in the slot....all of which depends, of course, upon the OL giving McNabb the time to make his reads and go through his progressions. Scouting the Eagles' offense, you'd have to say based on the past that everything goes through RB Brian Westbrook, and if you can stop him, you can beat the Eagles. But now you've got to worry about not only WR DeSean Jackson and slot receiver Jason Avant, but also rookie RB LeSean McCoy (from U. of Pittsburgh) and FB Leonard Weaver (acquired from Seattle), two guys who can run the ball and catch screens. I like the idea of getting Westbrook some relief as the main playmaker for the Eagles, because Westy for too long has borne the brunt of the offensive burden of the Eagles, and while clearly still recuperating from offseason surgeries, Westbrook will be more effective with less touches. There are only two TE's in the picture now, veteran Brent Celek and the newly acquired Alex Smith from New England/Tampa Bay, who will likely be used primarily as blockers for the run and passing game, but both are capable of running routes and making big-time catches in traffic. So potentially the Eagles have the prerequisite QB/speedy receivers combination and the running game factors necessary to fit the formula of a winning team in the NFL. Of course, all of that is dependent upon the questionable performance of an offensive line which looked so good on paper three months ago, but which is clearly a mystery at this point. That brings us to the Defense portion of the winning equation. The Eagles had the #3-rated defense in the NFL last season, behind only Pittsburgh and Baltimore. What has changed since then? A lot. First, of course, the Eagles lost their defensive coordinator Jim Johnson, the "Mad Scientist" of blitz packages and the wizened master of the defensive persona of the team, to a viciously shortened battle with cancer. This tragedy only highlights the desperation of the Eagles to win something big in Johnson's memory. Adding to the desperation felt by Johnson's death was the unexpected loss of MLB Stewart Bradley for the season due to a freak knee injury on the wet grass of Lincoln Financial Field during a preseason scrimmage. Bradley was the smart, hard-hitting, run-stopping anchor of the linebacking corps who also wore the radio-helmet and called the signals. Now it's up to the somewhat untested veterans Omar Gaither and Joe Mays to fill his spot at MLB. At least the good news is the strong-side LB spot will again be manned by Chris Gocong, who could have a break-out season in 2009. Akeem Jordan will again handle most of the weak-side LB duties, and Jordan is typical of the Eagles LB mold: light and fast enough to cover running backs and tight ends, but strong enough to hit hard and cause turnovers, an important factor when you play in a division which has such talented TE's as Jason Witten, Kevin Boss and Chris Cooley. Defensive linemen Trent Cole, Brodrick Bunkley and Mike Patterson are potential stars, and the addition of free-agent Jason Babin working alongside Vic Abiamiri, Juqua Parker and Chris Clemons gives the Eagles a legitimate speed-rush threat from the DE position. The re-united duo of Asante Samuel and Ellis Hobbs (both formerly of the Super Bowl-winning New England Patriots), along with rejuvenated CB's Sheldon Brown and Dimitri Patterson, should anchor the secondary at cornerback. All eyes will be on the safeties--- Quintin Demps, Quintin Mikell, Sean Jones and rookie Victor "Macho" Harris---as they attempt to fill the vacuum left by departed veteran Brian Dawkins (now playing for the Denver Broncos). It remains to be seen if this revised combine of Eagles' Defense can put it all together under new defensive coordinator Sean McDermott soon enough to make us forget the loss of Jim Johnson, Bradley and Dawkins. But one thing's for sure---if they don't make it happen defensively, and sooner would be better than later, the burden on the fragile offensive line to pick up the slack becomes even more critical to the Eagles' having any real chance to get off to a good start and take charge of their division. The kicking game still looks solid, with David Akers performing like he's younger and stronger than his chronological age, having rediscovered that accurate stroke that seemed to have waned a bit last season in the wake of some nagging injuries. Punter Sav Rocca is still a very good directional punter, but he seemed to have some bad outings in preseason which troubled me---and I won't say the "s" word (shank) out loud, but I'm writing it here for the record. I saved Mike Vick for last. I have to say I don't really get it completely why the Eagles chose to bring him on board, but I do have a theory that the Luries ( co-owners Jeff and Christina) saw it as their personal mission to rehabilitate a lost soul whom they saw as a victim of rural southern culture. I'll leave the sociology and the ultra-liberal implications of it at that. What I know for sure is, because Mike Vick will take up a roster spot, we lost one of the best backup QB's in the league---A.J. Feeley. Not Vick's fault, but it's a reality of the decision by the owners to bring him on board. If McNabb should go down from injury, I'm not entirely confident in the talent of QB Kevin Kolb to save us, and I know for sure Mike Vick is not a great QB, either...and again it's not Vick's fault. Vick was never taught how to read his progressions in the passing game; his "hot read" in college and at Atlanta was simply to take off and run with the ball. I guess we'll see if offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg can work Vick into a "wildcat" hybrid somehow to get his athletic ability into the same mix with McNabb's classic pocket-passing offense. But frankly, at the end of the day, I wonder if we'll be saying it was even worth the trouble. To sum it up, head coach Andy Reid has gotten the Eagles to five (5 !) conference championship games in his 10 seasons leading the team, but he is still attempting to put this franchise into a new era that results in the grasp of a Lombardi trophy. Close but no cigar is a frustrating legacy to inhabit. Reid is still entrenched in a pass-first, pass-happy offense and an aggressive defensive philosophy. Somehow he gets his team to peak late in almost every season. But this season, he faces the unknown quantities of a depleted offensive line, the mystery of a defense that has lost its Obewan Kenobi, and the bizarre X-factor of the Michael Vick Show. Is it all too much to ask Reid to overcome the negatives this time around, or will his coaches and players dig deep and show the talent and desire inherent in their collective potential to rise above adversities in the past? Setbacks are normal events in the NF("Not For Long")L, and in Philadelphia pro sports. We know how fleeting championship runs can be. Still, the Eagles have enough potential in 2009 to win their division and go deep in the playoffs if enough things go wrong for the Giants, Cowboys and Redskins. I'm not counting on the Achilles heels of other teams in the NFC East, however. Also, the Eagles' schedule is ridiculously difficult in 2009, with 6 back-to-back away games and a very early Bye week in October, which is almost like having no Bye week at all to heal and recuperate. So given all the ups and downs and sideway moves of the Eagles this preseason, and the scheduling difficulties they face, my prediction for their 2009 campaign must be toned down to a calm voice of reason. I predict a 9-7 finish in the regular season, best-case scenario 10-6, with another last-minute shot at a wild-card berth. If they get to the playoffs, watch out---they can go deep again. But just making the playoffs in 2009 will be a severe test with a lot of lucky bounces required. That's the way it is sometimes in the NFL, and particularly in the NFC East. You can improve on paper, but the game is played in the mud and the blood and the beer.