Well, the Super Bowl has passed, and with it, the 2011 season has come to a close. But despite what the title says, it’s never too early to start picking out some winners for next year’s Super Bowl.
Looking forward to the 2012 season, it’s plain to see that there are a handful of contenders carrying over from 2011. The key will be in finding some gems buried down in the middle of the pack, like the Giants were last year when they began the year at 25/1 to win the Super Bowl, and got as high as 100/1 in the middle of the season.
Of course, it’s all for naught if one of the favorites just barrels through the year and is holding the Lombardi Trophy next February. But at the very least, you should be able to cover a bunch of potential champions without breaking the bank.
Disclaimer: Gambling on sports is illegal unless you are in Las Vegas or Atlantic City. Also, if I’m horribly incorrect with these picks – as I have occasionally been in the past – I’m sorry in advance. If you can’t afford to lose, don’t play. John Anthony – “The Million Dollar Man with the Billion Dollar Plan” – is not a real person. All lines from Bodog or **SBRForum** are accurate as of the time this was typed – Noon on Wednesday. Home teams in CAPS. That about covers it.)
Just like last year, let’s break it down into three categories before making the actual picks: Favorites, Also-Rans, and Long Shots. Then we’ll devise a betting strategy that will allow you to have action on as many teams as possible while still guaranteeing some kind of profit if any of them win.
Right off the bat, considering how this year played out it’s conceivable that at least eight of the 2011 playoff teams will be back in the postseason next year: New England, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Houston, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Francisco, and the Super Bowl winning New York Giants. Eight out of twelve. Those eight teams are most likely going to produce your Super Bowl XLVII champion, but not necessarily.
As for the other four spots, I have a hard time seeing Denver or Cincinnati making it back in – both felt like flukes this year. Atlanta seems to be regressing, and the Lions barely snuck in this year – they’re primed to take a step back.
THE FAVORITES: Right now, the Packers (6/1) and Patriots (7/1) are the favorites to win Super Bowl XLVII. Just like they were the favorites to win it all in Super Bowl XLVI, and the numbers are nearly the same (Packers were 7/1 in 2011, Pats were 15/2). And judging by their performances this year, it’s hard not to think they’ll at least be back in the playoffs in 2012.
The Saints are the only other team returning less than double-digits, currently sitting at 17/2. And then there’s a logjam between 10/1 and 15/1, including one team that missed the 2011 playoffs entirely (Philadelphia at 14/1) that is getting better odds than the reigning Super Bowl Champion Giants, sitting at 15/1. I still can’t figure that one out.
THE ALSO-RANS: There are certainly teams in this group that have a great shot to get to the playoffs and win the Super Bowl. But I wouldn’t pin my hopes on any of them. The best of this pack, the Chargers at 16/1, still have yet to prove that they have the team and the coaching staff to actually win anything. Ditto for the Cowboys (18/1) and Jets (20/1). And the Falcons’ horrific playoff showing this past January has the oddsmakers giving them no respect at all, installing them at 22/1 – somehow, not the worst odds of any 2011 playoff team.
If I had to bet on any of these teams, I’d probably take the Jets and Chargers – both are returning enough to justify a bet. But if I was only going to bet on one or two teams in the entire NFL, I’d steer clear of this group entirely – not enough money to deal with the frustrations.
THE LONG SHOTS: Oh man… the Broncos. After shocking everybody with the sudden onset of Tebow Time and wining the AFC West, the managed a home playoff win before getting their doors blown off in Foxboro. Maybe that’s why Denver opens this season as the highest odds of any 2011 playoff team at an astonishing 50/1. I suppose if you really believe in the power of Tebow, you could take a flyer here. But I’m not about to do that.
Meanwhile, the Bengals are the only 2011 playoff team left unaccounted for, and they’re sitting one step above Denver, currently returning 40/1. I’d stay the hell away from these guys too – the AFC North is too tough to send three teams to the playoffs every season, and the Ravens and Steelers are all but a lock.
There are only two teams I’d consider in this group, and both of their chances hinge on one player (as does everything this offseason)… Peyton Manning. As I write this, Peyton Manning is still an Indianapolis Colt, and it the presumptive starting QB for the Colts when the 2012 season starts. His presence alone makes that team a playoff contender. But that all could change if the Colts decide to trade or release him. And if they do, it’s hard not to see the Redskins paying any price imaginable to acquire him.
Right now, the Colts are sitting at 50/1. So are the Redskins. I don’t know about you, but I’d think that a small bet on both of those teams depending on where Manning ends up is certainly justifiable.
THE BEST BETS: So… let’s figure out the best way to break down the bets to generate a profitable return from as many bets as possible. Last year, I based this on a hypothetical $1,000 in available betting money. This year, I’m expanding to $1500 in betting funds, mostly because there is so much parity at the top of the NFL right now, it’s tough to cover your ass with enough teams without the funds. Of course, you can just drop the last zero from all of these numbers if you’re not looking to drop two week’s paychecks on something that wouldn’t pay off for another twelve months.
Green Bay (6/1): Bet $275, Potential Win $1650
New England (7/1): Bet $250, Potential Win $1750
New Orleans (17/2): Bet $200, Potential Win $1700
Pittsburgh & Baltimore (14/1): Bet $150 Each, Potential Win $2100
New York Giants (15/1): Bet $150, Potential Win $2250
San Diego (16/1): Bet $125, Potential Win $2000
New York Jets (20/1): Bet $100, Potential Win $2000 (If Manning winds up here, this will be below 10/1. I guarantee it)
Indianapolis / Washington (50/1): Bet $50 Each, Potential Win $2500
STAY AWAY: There are always a few teams that just don’t warrant your attention. And normally, it’s a team that is either fading from a previous high point, or made a huge leap the previous season, but is destined to come back down. This season, the Lions, Falcons, Broncos and Bengals all fit that bill. Like I said above, they’ve all got long odds for a reason.
There will also always be a media darling of a team that every newspaper, magazine, television network and website will push as their “sleeper”. This is usually a team like the 2011 49ers that has odds in the 40/1 or higher range. They almost never pan out, unless they catch a ton of breaks and avoid the injury bug all season long.
Then again, there’s bound to be a team that slipped just a little bit too far last year, and is primed for a rebound. It’s always tough to figure out exactly which team will be this year’s best bet, so I rarely recommend putting money on them. But there are plenty of options from the long shots in 2012 – Indy (already discussed) – Kansas City, Seattle and Tampa. All four of those teams were in the 2010 playoffs. All four finished with losing records in 2011. Past history says at least one of them is ready to rebound… my money’s on Indy.
AND FINALLY…
I made the mistake of suggesting a friendly Super Bowl wager between longtime Giants fan Dave K and myself a couple days before the game. It was not my finest hour. Sadly, I had to flex the golden PVC pipes and pay up, so… here you go. Thankfully, we never specified that the loser would have to do this well, or even close to in the right key. From now on, I’m sticking to betting money. Much less embarrassing to pay up.
Original Story:
