Found June 25, 2013 on
Fox Sports Southwest:
IRVING, Texas Two respected Dallas Cowboys voices not given to hyperbole All-Pro tight end Jason Witten and scout-turned-analyst Bryan Broaddus are in recent days offering rosy forecasts for 2013.
"Can this team win 11 games?'' Broaddus writes on the team's website. "You bet it can.''
Meanwhile, Witten was speaking before a crowd in his hometown of Elizabethton, Tennessee, on "Jason Witten Day'' and starting a sentence, "When I'm standing in New York in early February holding up that Lombardi Trophy ''
I often call the NFL "a .500 league,'' and because it is true, the opportunity for the Cowboys to rebound from consecutive 8-8 seasons toward regular- and then postseason greatness surely exists.
But because it is a .500 league, the odds are great that Jason's wish and Bryan's analysis will be offbase.
This is a one-bounce-of-the-ball NFL and here's one way to tell: In 2011, 13 of the 32 teams finished within one game of .500. That means 40.6 percent of the league's teams were at .500 or within a whisker of it.
Can it be a two-bounce league? Sure. In two of the last three seasons, an incredible 19 teams in each year finished within two games of .500. There is essentially a 59.4-percent chance that an NFL team will finish within two games of .500.
How do you bust out of the pack to win 11, as the astute Broaddus sees Dallas doing? Over the course of the last four seasons, it's happened to only seven teams per year. So there's a 78.1-percent chance a team won't win 11 games.
That number goes down, by the way, when it comes to trying to emerge from the NFC East with 11 wins. Maybe this is because the Cowboys play in such a challenging division (or maybe it's because the NFL East is lousy with mediocrity). But in the last three years, 12 editions of NFC East teams have obviously wished to get to the 11-win mark and none of them have accomplished it.
So, the odds of winning 11 in the NFC East? Over the course of a three-year sample size zero.
Want some optimism to buoy you, to allow you to join Witten and Broaddus in their feel-good outlooks? Four years ago, an NFC East team actually won the division with those almost-impossible-to-get 11 wins. That team? Your Dallas Cowboys.
BEST OF MAXIM
AROUND THE WEB
In 2012, the Cowboys acquired cornerback Brandon Carr in free agency and Morris Claiborne via the draft so they have corners who can play man coverage.
However, in the offseason, they gutted their 3-4 defense run by Rob Ryan and went out and hired Cover 2 guru Monte Kiffin as their defensive coordinator.
Carr and Claiborne are not a good fit for the Cover 2 scheme, which will...
Once again the Dallas Cowboys are slugging their way through a drama-filled offseason. The constant power struggle between Jerry Jones and Jason Garrett has been on national display and that has not made things easier. As the Cowboys prepare for the upcoming season, most critics are putting a ton of pressure on Tony Romo to perform while there are massive holes elsewhere in the...
The Dallas Cowboys signed first round draft pick (31st Overall) Travis Frederick on Tuesday. The rookie center out of Wisconsin has participated in minicamps as the starting center but is said to be in competition with fourth year center, Phil Costa. Over the past two seasons, the Cowboys’ running game has been absolutely horrible. Even before DeMarco Murray was injured...
The Dallas Cowboys won’t have to worry about any rookie contract negotiations running into training camp. According to a source, the Cowboys have agreed to terms with first-round pick Travis Frederick on a four-year deal with a fifth-year option.
Frederick was the last of the Cowboys’ seven draft picks left unsigned.
Frederick said after mini-camp two weeks ago that both sides...
Looking for the best Dallas Cowboys blog? Look no further. You found it. Congratulations! Silver and BlueBlood - The Essential Dallas Cowboys Blog | Totally Biased * Highly Opinionated * Unapologetic
Bill Parcells is set to be inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. The massive one they call the Tuna (most affectionately so, some derisively) says he regrets the way things...
Dallas Cowboys' fans you have two Hall of Fame Quarterbacks, both were Super Bowl MVP's; two that can be considered amongst the "All-Time Greats", and lead your franchise to all five of its SB rings. The big question is, if you were the GM with the foresight of knowing how their careers would turn out, and both Roger Staubach and Troy Aikman were on the...
Former Dallas Cowboys offensive lineman Nate Newton was interviewed on a Dallas-area radio last week, and was asked about Texas A&M starting quarterback Johnny Manziel. Newton said Manziel needed to try to be like "an everyday guy."
This kid right now is just flying off the handle. He’s still
living in that world of – he got instant success...
2012 Record: 8-82012 DownfallDefensive PushoversWhile Rob Ryan fixes to ply his trade eastward in New Orleans, he leaves behind a Cowboys teamthat took a back-step in 2012. With Monte Kiffin, patron saint of the 'Tampa 2' defense, coming to town, he's tasked with fixing a defense that largely lacked bite.The Cowboys were tied at the bottom of the league with just seven...
Dallas defensive end Anthony Spencer is likely to play a second straight season under a one-year contract after talks with the Cowboys failed to produce a long-term deal.
Spencer's agent, Jordan Woy, said Tuesday that both sides are happy even without a deal. Spencer said earlier this month he wasn't worried about his contract situation. He can't sign a multiyear deal...
According to Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network, the Cowboys and Anthony Spencer’s agent Jordan Woy have broken off contract talks.
I used the term "broken off" for Anthony Spencer talks. A better way to say it is both sides are fine with a one-year deal at this point.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) June 25, 2013
.@JordanWoy told me: "Both sides have diligently tried...
Calvin Watkins of ESPN Dallas reports that the Cowboys and DE Anthony Spencer have ”ended” discussions regarding a long-term extension.
Ian Rapoport spoke with Spencer’s agent who also mentioned that long-term talks between the two sides have broken off.
Watkins adds that Spencer will enter the 2013 season with the “expectation that he will become a free agent...
Will Allen learned a lot under the Steelers defensive backs. One thing stuck in his mind that he wants to bring to over to Dallas. Allen wants to make the Cowboys secondary more physical.
“The first thing Ryan Clark and Troy Polamalu and Ike Taylor and those guys said to me when I walked into the defensive back room, was if you don’t stick your face in the thing, you can’t...
The Dallas Cowboys added a defensive tackle to their 90-man roster on Monday, according to DallasCowboys.com. Jerome Long, a seventh-round draft pick by the Kansas City Chiefs in 2012, takes the open spot that was created when the Cowboys released defensive end Anthony Hargrove on Thursday.
Long was signed off the Chiefs’ practice squad by the Jacksonville Jaguars in December....
Player Ryan Fowler Joel Beall Adam Meyer John Halpin Avg 1. Jimmy Graham (NO - TE) 1 1 1 1 1.0 2. Jason Witten (Dal - TE) 4 2 2 2 2.5 3. Tony Gonzalez (Atl - TE) 5 3 3 3 3.5 4. Vernon Davis (SF - TE) 2 4 5 4 3.8 5. Rob Gronkowski (NE - TE) 3 10 4 5 5.5 6. Kyle Rudolph (Min - TE) 11 5 6 7 7.3 7. Owen Daniels (Hou - TE) 8 8 9 9 8.5 8. Dennis Pitta (Bal - TE) 6 16 7 6 8.8 9. Greg Olsen...