http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/home Recent baseballecon Posts en-us It's been months since I've written on here, and let me just say it brings back a lot of memories, from the beginning of my baseball writing career.  I just wanted to link to the places where my writing still appears: -I write about the Yankees for Bugs&Cranks -I write weekly features (Mondays) for Call to the Pen -I write weekly features (Thursdays) for Beyond the Boxscore Keep following and never forget how amazing the game of baseball actually is.   Glenn DuPaul "Baseball's Economist" Fri, 15 Jun 2012 01:06:11 -0400 http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/where_my_work_is_now/11017274 http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/where_my_work_is_now/11017274 Where My Work is Now... http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/where_my_work_is_now/11017274 http://www.yardbarker.com/images/yb_logo_square_grey.png  Matt Cain and Joey Votto just got rich, very rich. This week, Matt Cain signed a 5-year/$112.5 million contract extension today to stay with the San Francisco Giants.  Cain is making the most money on one multi-year contract than any other right-handed pitcher in Major League history, and when his current one-year/$15 million deal is included his contract totals to 6-years and $127.5 million. Joey Votto also agreed to a massive 10-year/$225 million extension with the Cincinnati Reds.  When his current 2 year/$26.5 million deal is included into this contract, it works out to the longest contract in baseball history, 12 years for $251.5 million.  It’s crazy that both of these extensions went down one the same day and only a few days before Opening Day of the 2012 seasons.  I’ll do my best to analyze whether or not these contracts make any sense. Cain: The fact that Cain is being paid more than any right-hander ever does not mean, that he is the greatest right-handed pitcher of all-time.  The reason Wed, 04 Apr 2012 13:47:50 -0400 http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/holy_extensions_cain_and_votto/10482244 http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/holy_extensions_cain_and_votto/10482244 Holy Extensions: Cain and Votto http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/holy_extensions_cain_and_votto/10482244 http://www.yardbarker.com/images/yb_logo_square_grey.png Albert Pujols… ever heard of him?? My guess is you have, I've written about him constantly on this blog, he’s been the best player in baseball over the last decade, and he also happened to ink the second (or third depending on who you talk to) biggest contract in baseball history this off-season, to move from his home in St. Louis to sunny Southern California. Most of the talk surrounding Pujols this off-season has been about whether or not the Los Angeles Angels made a mistake in giving Pujols such a long lucrative deal. I’ve already written extensively on about that contract, and that’s not what this post is about. This post is about how good Albert is going to be this season. Baseball Prospectus’ deadly accurate PECOTA projection system projects this stat-line for Pujols in 2012: .305/.402/.556 37 home runs 111 RBI’s and 11 stolen bases. That stat-line gives a more traditional picture of how good Pujols could be in 2012. Pujols is projected to lead the league in traditional statistic Sun, 04 Mar 2012 22:43:38 -0500 http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/albert_pujols_the_best_player_in_baseball/10231831 http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/albert_pujols_the_best_player_in_baseball/10231831 Albert Pujols: The Best Player in Baseball http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/albert_pujols_the_best_player_in_baseball/10231831 http://www.yardbarker.com/images/yb_logo_square_grey.png This week while reading one of Jayson Stark’s articles, a point about Tampa Bay Rays' starter, Jeremy Hellickson, that I had made last season was called into question. I agree with Stark, that coming into 2012 the Rays have the best rotation in baseball; however, the player I’ve doubted the most in their rotation was Hellickson, last year’s AL Rookie of the Year. I doubted him for one critical reason, his ridiculously low BABIP (batting average on balls in play). Typically pitchers are thought to be lucky if their BABIP is below .300 and unlucky if it’s above .300. Hellickson had the lowest BABIP in baseball last season (.223) by over 13 points. The point I made during last season about Hellickson was that, he was terribly lucky and overrated and that San Franciso Giants' starter Madison Bumgarner was terribly unlucky and underrated. Andrew Friedman’s (the Rays’ GM, who’s opinion I respect greatly) quote in the Stark article has made me doubt my original opinion about Hellickson. Wed, 29 Feb 2012 17:45:34 -0500 http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/jeremy_hellickson_is_his_babip_sustainable/10189891 http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/jeremy_hellickson_is_his_babip_sustainable/10189891 Jeremy Hellickson: Is his BABIP sustainable? http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/jeremy_hellickson_is_his_babip_sustainable/10189891 http://www.yardbarker.com/images/yb_logo_square_grey.png Today, Matt Kemp channeled his inner Joe Namath, and made one of the boldest predictions I’ve ever heard.  Kemp has decided he’s going to make baseball history in 2012.  He predicted that he is going to be the first player to hit 50 home runs and steal 50 stolen bases in a single season (50-50).  He was one home run away last season from joining baseball’s prestigious 40-40 club, and after signing a massive contract extension this off-season, Kemp’s ego and confidence are sky high…. which has him acting borderline crazy.  Kemp has never hit 40 home runs and prior to 2011 had never hit more than 30 home runs. His career high in stolen bases came last season when he stole 40; his career high prior to 2011 was 35.  Kemp hasn’t come anywhere close to proving that he can steal 50 bases or hit 50 home runs, but then again few have proved they can achieve either of those feats; let alone both of them.  Barry Bonds and Brady Anderson (we’ll leave steroids out of this conversation) are the only pl Thu, 23 Feb 2012 16:14:06 -0500 http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/matt_kemp_50_50/10080460 http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/matt_kemp_50_50/10080460 Matt Kemp: 50-50?? http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/matt_kemp_50_50/10080460 http://www.yardbarker.com/images/yb_logo_square_grey.png Does Billy Beane know something that no one else in baseball knows… again?? How could baseball’s smallest market team put up a figure that scared off all the big market teams, including the craziest spenders of this off-season, for a player who has never stepped foot on even a minor league field in America? This week, Yoenis Cespedes signed a 4 year/$36 million contract with Beane’s Oakland Athletics. Kevin Goldstein rated Cespedes the 20th best prospect in baseball coming into 2012, and he has put up some incredible numbers against baseball’s elite, albeit in a small sample size. In six games during the 2009 WBC, Cespedes hit 2 home runs, drove in 5, and hit .458; good for an OPS of 1.480. This move by Oakland came completely out of left field (pun intended), and brings up many interesting questions; I’ll attempt to answer three of them. 1. Does this deal make financial sense for Oakland? This deal does make financial sense because to be worth $9 million a year, Cespedes will only need a Tue, 14 Feb 2012 21:35:57 -0500 http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/moneyball_part_ii_billy_beane_shocks_the_baseball_world_again/9926029 http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/moneyball_part_ii_billy_beane_shocks_the_baseball_world_again/9926029 Moneyball Part II: Billy Beane shocks the baseball world. Again. http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/moneyball_part_ii_billy_beane_shocks_the_baseball_world_again/9926029 http://www.yardbarker.com/images/yb_logo_square_grey.png Edwin Jackson, the last major free agent, signed a one-year contract with the Washington Nationals last week. The move makes some sense, but at the same time doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. I wrote a piece at the beginning of the off-season, about why Edwin Jackson was the best (value) starting pitcher on the market. So obviously I think the Nationals made the right move in signing him, he’ll be worth the $9-12 million (exact details won’t be released until he has had his physical) they’re paying him. Washington was already an interesting team going into 2012, and the addition of Jackson makes them all the more interesting. Jackson has been extremely consistent over the last three seasons; however, his consistency on the diamond hasn’t led to a consistent home. The Nationals will be his 8th franchise in the last ten seasons and fifth in the last three years (if you count his small stay as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays franchise). Over the last three seasons Jackson has averaged 11.66 Mon, 06 Feb 2012 16:31:39 -0500 http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/mr_jackson_goes_to_washington/9796042 http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/mr_jackson_goes_to_washington/9796042 Mr. Jackson goes to Washington http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/mr_jackson_goes_to_washington/9796042 http://www.yardbarker.com/images/yb_logo_square_grey.png The Detroit Tigers came out of nowhere Tuesday, and signed baseball’s number 2 free agent, Prince Fielder to a massive contract. The Mariners, Nationals, and Rangers were all rumored to be front-runners in the race for the first baseman’s services, but in the end it was Detroit who swooped in to win the race. Fielder’s father, Cecil, played six and a half seasons with the Tigers, where he hit 245 home runs for the franchise. His son will now reside in Detroit for the next nine seasons, and make an incredible $214 million ($23.7 million AAV). Is the hefty first baseman worth such a monster contract and does he have the ability to put the Tigers over the top in a loaded American League? My weighted average projection based on Prince’s last three seasons, is that Prince will be a 5 fWAR player for the next two seasons. Then I simply assumed Prince would decline by a half a win per seasons once he turns 30. Using linear-dollars per WAR to calculate the dollar value of this production (with a 5% inf Sun, 29 Jan 2012 16:01:09 -0500 http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/a_family_affair_prince_fielders_awful_financial_contract/9659836 http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/a_family_affair_prince_fielders_awful_financial_contract/9659836 A Family Affair: Prince Fielder's Awful (Financial) Contract http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/a_family_affair_prince_fielders_awful_financial_contract/9659836 http://www.yardbarker.com/images/yb_logo_square_grey.png I’ve yet to discuss Hall of Fame credentials on this site, so when it was announced this week that Barry Larkin, the Cinncinatti Reds great shortstop would be the only member of the 2012 Baseball Hall of Fame class, I figured I’d take a look into why Larkin is a Hall of Famer. Larkin becomes the 22nd shortstop to be elected to baseball’s hall; but how do his numbers stack up both traditionally and sabrmetrically against names like Ernie Banks, Cal Ripken Jr., Ozzie Smith, and Luis Aparicio.  Larkin has won many awards that stack up to paint a picture of him as a Hall of Famer.  Larkin was a 12-time All-star, 9-time Silver Slugger, 3-time Gold Glover, and won the 1995 NL MVP award (first by a shortstop since Maury Willis won in 1962).  He also was a key member of the Reds 1990 World Series championship team.  That’s a pretty solid resume of awards before even delving into the numbers.  Larkin also looks like a Hall of Famer when you consider his traditional numbers (hits, RBI’s, home runs, etc. Thu, 12 Jan 2012 16:54:54 -0500 http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/barry_larkin_cooperstowns_newest_shortstop/9304979 http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/barry_larkin_cooperstowns_newest_shortstop/9304979 Barry Larkin: Cooperstown's Newest Shortstop http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/barry_larkin_cooperstowns_newest_shortstop/9304979 http://www.yardbarker.com/images/yb_logo_square_grey.png Imagine how good it would feel to hit a home run every fourth fly ball in the major leagues. Well the Miami Marlins’ right fielder, Mike Stanton, knows that feeling. Stanton posted the highest HR/FB rate among qualified hitters in the major leagues in 2011 at 24.8%. In Stanton’s first full major league season, 2011, he hit 34 home runs and posted a wOBA of .378 with an ISO power rating of .275 (3rd in the majors). The 22 year-old projects to continue posting incredible power numbers. In 2010, Stanton combined for 43 home runs between AA and the majors posting an ISO of .248 at the major league level, and his HR/FB rate was also ridiculous at 22.9%. Over the course of his short major league career (250 games), Stanton hits a fly ball almost 40% of the time, while almost 25% of those fly balls have resulted in a round-tripper, if these numbers persist Stanton’s home runs will continue to rack up to possibly legendary power hitting highs. But does Stanton have an Achilles’ heel? Yes of course, li Sat, 07 Jan 2012 15:45:08 -0500 http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/mike_stanton_raw_power/9193357 http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/mike_stanton_raw_power/9193357 Mike Stanton: Raw Power http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/mike_stanton_raw_power/9193357 http://www.yardbarker.com/images/yb_logo_square_grey.png In 17 games in 2011, Boston Red Sox catching prospect Ryan Lavarnway had a batting line of .231/.302/.436, good for a wOBA of .323 and a fWAR of 0.1. In relatively few at-bats he had an impressive ISO power of .205. The Red Sox depth chart currently lists Lavarnway as third behind Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Kelly Shoppach. Most catchers who are third on a team’s depth chart end up in Triple-A to start the season, as there are just not enough roster spots for a team to hold three catchers. But is there an argument for the 24 year-old catcher with only 43 career major league plate appearances to be the Red Sox opening day catcher or even a top catcher in the game today? In 77 games (231 PA) in 2012, Bill James projects Lavarnway to have a wOBA of .379, an ISO of .252, 13 home runs, and an OPS of .878. For a catcher, those numbers are ridiculous. Of the 38 catchers who had at least 230 PA’s in 2011, only Mike Napoli and Alex Avila had wOBA’s higher than .379 (.444 and .383, respectively). Napoli was Wed, 04 Jan 2012 11:29:19 -0500 http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/ryan_lavarnway_the_next_alex_avila_and_why_salty_should_step_aside_for_the_kid/9123019 http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/ryan_lavarnway_the_next_alex_avila_and_why_salty_should_step_aside_for_the_kid/9123019 Ryan Lavarnway: The Next Alex Avila, and why Salty Should Step Aside for the Kid http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/ryan_lavarnway_the_next_alex_avila_and_why_salty_should_step_aside_for_the_kid/9123019 http://www.yardbarker.com/images/yb_logo_square_grey.png Pioneer sabermetrician, Bill James, has come out with his 2012 projections for the Major League season, and some interesting conclusions can be drawn from them. Based on the FIP pitching metric, a defense independent measure of pitcher’s effectiveness, 2011 NL Cy Young award winner, Clayton Kershaw (2.72 projected FIP) projects as the number one pitcher in baseball in 2012. Among the pitchers who James projects to throw 150+ innings in 2012, the pitcher who is second to Kershaw in FIP, would surprise most baseball fans, and even most experts. The number 2 pitcher is not Roy Halladay (2.96), Justin Verlander (3.20), Tim Lincecum (2.95), Zack Grienke (3.23), or Cliff Lee (2.99), but instead it is Atlanta Braves right hander Brandon Beachy. James projects Beachy to have a FIP of 2.83, in 27 starts in 2012. This projection makes me wonder, is it possible that Brandon Beachy, a 25 year old pitcher with only 28 career major league starts, will be the second best pitcher in all of baseball in 2012? 2011 was B Mon, 02 Jan 2012 17:47:57 -0500 http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/brandon_beachy_2012_cy_young_award_winner/9087340 http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/brandon_beachy_2012_cy_young_award_winner/9087340 Brandon Beachy: 2012 Cy Young Award Winner?? http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/brandon_beachy_2012_cy_young_award_winner/9087340 http://www.yardbarker.com/images/yb_logo_square_grey.png Josh Byrnes may have found his replacement for Adrian Gonzalez’ bat in the San Diego Padres lineup, but he gave up one of the best young pitchers in baseball in the process. Today, San Diego traded ace Mat Latos to the Cincinnati Reds for first baseman Yonder Alonso, starter Edinson Volquez, catcher Yasmani Grandal, and reliever Brad Boxberger. Was there a clear winner in this deal? And does Alonso have a legitimate shot at being as productive as Gonzalez, the former Padres’ slugger? Latos is a 24 year old with nasty stuff who needed 35 minor league starts before his major league call up in 2009. Latos is a classic case of why a pitcher shouldn’t be judged by his win/loss record. In 72 starts, his career win/loss is 27-29, but the majority of those starts came with the abysmal Padres’ offenses of 2010 and ’11. Latos ranked 30th among 2010 pitchers in fWAR (4.0), 7th in K/9 (9.21) and incredibly 6th in FIP (3.00), in his first full major league season. He followed that up with a 2011 campaig Sat, 17 Dec 2011 18:29:05 -0500 http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/the_reds_acquire_mat_latos/8795470 http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/the_reds_acquire_mat_latos/8795470 The Reds Acquire Mat Latos http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/the_reds_acquire_mat_latos/8795470 http://www.yardbarker.com/images/yb_logo_square_grey.png Today, Andrew Friedman inked his number 1 pitching prospect Matt Moore to a 5 year/$14 million dollar deal that has 3 club options valuing the total contract at $39.75 million. I wrote a brief post on Moore before his ALDS Game 1 start that detailed the track record of the 22 year old left-hander. Some experts say he’s more talented than mega-prospect Stephen Strasburg, and his performances in the majors in 2011, make it seem like that’s highly possible. In three regular season appearances by Moore, he threw 9.1 innings gave up 3 runs, 9 hits, 3 walks and struck out 15 batters (good for a FIP of 2.17 and .4 WAR). This guy threw a total of just over one game and attributed almost half a win above replacement, that’s incredible. His postseason numbers were even more ridiculous. Tampa Bay sent out a 22 year old with 9.1 innings of career major league experience against the best lineup in baseball in the Texas Rangers and he threw seven shutout innings giving up two hits and walking two, while strikin Fri, 09 Dec 2011 16:38:35 -0500 http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/friedman_does_it_again_matt_moore_locked_up_long_term/8631556 http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/friedman_does_it_again_matt_moore_locked_up_long_term/8631556 Friedman Does It Again: Matt Moore Locked Up Long-Term http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/baseballecon/article/friedman_does_it_again_matt_moore_locked_up_long_term/8631556 http://www.yardbarker.com/images/yb_logo_square_grey.png