Yardbarker: Matt Kemp

Game 3 NLDS / Cubs @ Dodgers

Sat, 04 Oct 2008 20:46:59 -0500

	Rich Harden	vs.		Hiroki Kuroda
	*5-1, 1.77, 89 K, 30 BB, 71 IP	*2008*		9-10, 3.73, 116 K, 42 BB, 183.1 IP
	1-2, 6.43, 5 K, 7 BB, 7 IP	*Post*		(None)
	*NL stats only

LF	Alfonso Soriano		SS	#Rafael Furcal
2B	*Mike Fontenot		C	Russell Martin
1B	Derrek Lee		LF	Manny Ramirez
3B	Aramis Ramirez		RF	Andre Ethier
C	Geovany Soto		1B	*James Loney
CF	*Jim Edmonds		CF	Matt Kemp
RF	Mark DeRosa		2B	*Blake DeWitt
SS	Ryan Theriot		3B	Casey Blake
P	*Rich Harden		P	Hiroki Kuroda

Our very own Rob G. will be in the stands at tonight's game. Be sure to look for him on the broadcast.

Thoughts on Hiroki Kuroda from rom "Blue Notes," the L.A. Times blog about the Dodgers:

...when the Japanese import is on, dude typically gets into a serious, sometimes unhittable groove. But he's often the Bizarro-version of that pitcher after the first bit of trouble, more often than not tossing himself further into trouble than figuring a way out of it.

In two starts against the Cubs this year, Kuroda has pitched 15 1/3 innings and allowed one earned run. In other words, we really haven't come across that "first bit of trouble" part.

In his last two regular season starts, against the Brewers and the Mets, Harden walked 11 men in 11 innings.

Richa?"we've already tried the walking lots of guys thing in this series and it doesn't work for us.

The Dodgers are one victory away from reaching the NLCS for the first time in 20 years, which is also how long it has been since they played in a World Series.

Twenty years without a World Seriesa?"how pathetic is that?!

A Woman Should Never Be A General Manager In Baseball

Sat, 04 Oct 2008 09:01:31 -0500

Dear Chuck Armstrong, I write to you today in much urgency and with much concern. You see, I saw in a news item the other day that the Mariners were heavily interested in Dodger Assistant General Manager Kim Ng for your vacant GM job. Well, i'm here to tell you that such a move would be a huge mistake. To begin, you know she's a woman, right? In case her first name didn't give her away, I included some pictures to seal the deal. A woman in baseball? Laughable! Come on, Chuck, you know as well as I do that baseball is an old timers game that's old timey! Besides, it's not like she exactly qualified either. Okay, so she handles the player acquisitions, contract negotiations, club arbitrations, player development, scouting department, and other day-to-day operations, but the important part to remember is that she doesn't even have a penis for godsakes. I mean, yeah, I guess the Dodgers'...

Infected

Fri, 03 Oct 2008 20:01:57 -0500

Somewhere along the way the Cubs contracted the "paralyzing suck" virus and it seemed to spread from one Cub to the next last night. I felt like I was watching 28 Days Later, just waiting for the Cubs fans at the park to start ripping each other apart. It started with Ryan Theriot, and not on that ill-advised bare-handed play. After Soriano singled and took second, Theriot flailed away looking thorougly overmatched by Chad Billingsley. What a fantastic time for a guy who hits the ball to the right side about 95% of the time to fail.

He sure made up for it later though when he attempted a bare-handed do-or-die play on a ball he should have probably have just gloved. I admit I stepped away for a second and only saw the back end of the replay.A The Parachat crowd was 50/50 on whether Theriot would have even gotten Loney had he tried to field it cleanly, but nonetheless, it certainly wasn't a good play.

Next up was DeRosa, who turned two routine outs into none when he muffed an admittably hard-hit ball. Had he not been infected with "the paralyzing suck" virus, he might have realized he still had plenty of time to at least secure one out, but instead rushed his throw to still try and get a double play which was gone as soon as he didn't fieldl the ball cleanly.

Around the diamond it went and next up was Derrek Lee who did all he could to keep a hot smash in front of him, but unfortunately the "paralyzing suck" virus must mess with your equilibrium because he couldn't pick up where the ball went. And to complicate matters, Zambrano was a little late getting to the bag.

I think somewhere in that exchange, Zambrano caught it because a few hitters later, he left an absolute cookie up for Russell Martin that pretty much sucked the air right out of Wrigley.

Quick sidebar: That was just an absolutely fantastic drag bunt single by Furcal right before that. Hope Hendry can land him this time around in free agency.

Oh but, it wasn't done. Aramis booted a ball later in the game and the entire offense started hacking away down five runs rather than remain patient and try to chip away one run at a time. In the 7th, the virus spread to the dugout when Neal Cotts was brought in to face Andre Ethier and James Loney. Problem being with Bob Howry warmed up in the pen, Lou left Cotts out there to face Matt Kemp who predicatbly singled in a run. You ask, what's the difference between 6-0 and 7-0, I say a whole lot when you have as talented an offense as the Cubs do. They're in every game and the manager doesn't need to be giving up in the 7th inning.

By the 8th, Lou decides to go with his bullpen aces and they certainly weren't immune. Marmol gives up another two and Wood - in possibly his last game as a Cub in Wrigley - gives up one more. Everyone gets a ride on the "suck ass" carousel.

More ranting after the jump....

- Way to be a leader of the team, DeRosa...

Beforehand, Piniella was taken aback by second baseman Mark DeRosa saying the Cubs already were in a do-or-die situation. If that was the case, Piniella said, they might as well forfeit Game 3.

Piniella had a little talk with DeRosa and amplified his feelings afterward.

"And this is why I don't like talking about do-or-die things, and I heard that from a few of our players," he said. "I'll talk to them about it. This is not do-or-die. Actually, we're sending a pretty good pitcher out there on the mound in Los Angeles on Saturday in (Rich) Harden, and we're sending a darned good pitcher to the mound also on Sunday in (Ted) Lilly."

- Good to see the Cubs learned about being up front to their fans about injuries....

Multiple team sources confirmed Thursday that Harden received an anti-inflammatory shot for the discomfort that sidelined him for 12 days between his Aug. 29 and Sept. 11 starts.

It's not rare for pitchers to get anti-inflammatory injections, and insiders suggest it can be considered maintenance as much as injury relief for a pitcher with a history of problems but no structural damage.

- Alright, this curse shit is complete bullshit, but the last fucking thing anyone associated with the Cubs needs to be doing is perpetuating it. So a hardy fuck you to Crane Kenney:

The story began a couple days ago, when Cubs Chairman Crane Kenney left a message on Greanis' voice mail to call him. Greanis thought his friends were playing a prank on him, but when he eventually got in contact with Kenney, he found out the reason for the call.

"He said, 'I'm a devout Catholic, and I'm not superstitious, but if there is anything there, I want to take care of it,'" Greanis said Thursday.

The Billy Goat curse was placed on the Cubs in 1945 when Billy Goat Tavern owner William Sianis was denied entrance to a World Series game at Wrigley Field because he wanted to bring in his goat. The curse was immortalized in newspaper columns over the years, particularly by syndicated columnist Mike Royko, and gained widespread attention during the 2003 postseason when Fox played it up during the Cubs-Florida match-up in the National League Championship Series.

Kenney told Greanis that they wanted a Greek Orthodox priest to bless the dugout, since the alleged curse was placed by a Greek-American.

"I told him 'I'm honored,'" Greanis said. "I said we'd bring some holy water and say a prayer. It's not for ensuring the Cubs winning, but for being safe and protected. I'm a priest first, and a Cubs fan second. I don't want anything to be mocked, and neither did Mr. Kenney."

Greanis came to Wrigley on Wednesday well before the media was allowed inside the park. But a TBS cameraman setting up near the dugout saw the ritual and got some of it on tape. TBS then aired it during their pre-game show, ensuring it would get national publicity.A

- However you feel about "The Sports Guy", Bill Simmons, his take on why this game means so much to many of us and why many of us take each and every loss so personally is about as spot-on as I've ever read:

The relationship between a fan and his baseball team is unlike anything else. If you love a team -- if you truly love it -- then that team infiltrates your daily life for six straight months (seven if you're lucky). You wake up, you shower, you eat, you work, you eat, you watch your baseball team, you sleep. When the Mets collapsed for the third straight season last week, my devastated friends who follow them all said the same thing: it wasn't losing again as much as reflecting on those 162 games and the hundreds of hours wasted along the way. They felt betrayed. Only baseball does that to you. It's a game of routine, of watching one at-bat after another, hoping something different happens, of relishing the little things that happen along the way. You don't know your favorite players personally, but you feel like you do

- I'll have the "pleasure" of being there for Games 3 and a possible Game 4.A Sort of like the pleasure of contracting genital herpes.

Chad's Coming Out Party

Fri, 03 Oct 2008 08:33:54 -0500

Not out of the closet, but into America's consciousness. I've written before about how he gets little credit for as good as he's been this year, but game 2 seems to have served as campaign for national recognition. Normally, I begin to resent players who get overhyped in the playoffs because the media falls in love with small sample size performances. This time, however, it's at least well deserved. Again, I have some random unsorted thoughts on the game. * I have no idea what to feel right now. See, I wasn't old enough to really remember 1988, so this is the first time the Dodgers have ever been in control of a postseason series as far as I can remember. This is also the first time I have expectations for the Dodgers to actually win a postseason series. My emotions are torn between joy, disbelief, confusion, and apprehension. * I hate how ESPN continually plays up the "Cubs are choking again" angle more than the "Dodgers are a solid team that are playing out of their mind" angle. Give the guys a little credit. * Billingsley's most important performance of the night was in the bottom of the 2nd. Staked to a 5-0 lead in the top of the inning, Billingsley put down the Cubs...

Game 2 NLDS / Dodgers @ Cubs

Thu, 02 Oct 2008 20:37:21 -0500

Game Chat | Press Pass | BR Preview

SP	Chad Billingsley	A	SP	Carlos Zambrano
A	16-10, 3.14, 201 K, 80 BB, 200.2 IPA A	*2008*	A	14-6, 3.91, 130 K, 72 BB, 188.2 IP
A	0-0, 0.00, 3 K, 0 BB, 2 IP	*Post*	A	0-1, 4.37, 20 K, 6 BB, 22.2 IP
A	A	A	A	A
SS	#Rafael Furcal	A	LF	Alfonso Soriano
C	Russell Martin	A	SS	Ryan Theriot
LF	Manny Ramirez	A	1B	Derrek Lee
RF	*Andre Ethier	A	3B	Aramis Ramirez
1B	*James Loney	A	2B	Mark DeRosa
CF	Matt Kemp	A	CF	*Jim Edmonds
2B	*Blake DeWitt	A	C	Geovany Soto
3B	Casey Blake	A	RF	*Kosuke Fukudome
P	Chad Billingsley	A	P	#Carlos Zambrano

It has taken a good 21 hours of self pity and a bracing White Sox defeat to clear my head and even let me think about previewing Game Two.

Yes, last night went down harsh, but from reading Rob's post and many of the ensuing comments earlier this afternoon, it is clear that there are still some optimistic souls in Cubdom. All I can say is, God bless you all.

Starters' Records Since 8/1/08
A	A WA A	A LA A A	IP A A	A H/9A A	A K/9A A	A BB/9A A	A ERAA A	A HR/9A A	A No-Hitters Thrown
Billingsley	5	1	62	10.2	8.1	3.5	3.34	.73	0
Zambrano	2	2	47	8.6	6.5	5.0	7.28	1.80	1

Billingsley pitched twice against the Cubs this season. On both occasions, he matched up with Ryan Dempster. Once, Billingsley threw well (7 K, 2 ER in 6 IP); the other time, he threw not as well. The Cubs won both contests.

Among Cub hitters, only Jim Edmonds has more than 10 career plate appearances against the 23-year-old Billingsley, though Fukudome, Lee, and DeRosa have all tagged him for homers.

Zambrano, meanwhile, pitched twice against the Dodgers in 2008. In the series the Cubs swept at Wrigley, he held L.A. to a single run over eight innings, but was only spared a loss when the Cubs pushed across a run in the bottom of the ninth to tie the game, 1-1, before winning 2-1 in ten innings. Then in June, in L.A., Z was rocked for 7 runs and 13 hits in 6.2 IP as he took what was then just his second loss of the season. Five Dodgers had two or more hits that day, but Russell Martin was the chief trouble-maker, connecting for three hits, including a long homer.

Career-wise, Martin (8-for-13, 1513 OPS) and Andre Ethier (1038 OPS in 14 PA's) have battered Zambrano in limited exposure. Manny Ramirez faced Zambrano in 3 AB's when the Red Sox visited Wrigley in '05, and Carlos fanned him twice.

Do I need to point out that the Cubs have now lost seven post-season games in a rowa?"a new franchise post-season futility recorda?" and are 0-4 in post-season play under Piniella? No, I didn't think I did.

Finally, if it has ever occurred to you that divine intervention might get the Cubs to a World Series, you can forget it. Turns out this is all a big joke to Him.

Predictions, Guilt, And James Loney

Thu, 02 Oct 2008 06:16:18 -0500

Predictions. They're a funny thing, aren't they? No, I don't think it's time to point and laugh at people who had predictions like Jayson Stark's, but I do know that this is the best start the Dodgers have had in the past 20 years. Guilt. Yep, i'm guilty as shit. Guilty of not taking the advice that I tried to give all of you guys. I admit that I panicked quite a bit when Andre Ethier struck out on ball 4 with the bases loaded in the top of the 3rd. It wasn't about necessarily about Ethier, it was more about the Dodgers' franchise and their failures over the past 20 years. Luckily, it was short lived… James Loney. As you all know by now, James Loney came around in a similar situation to Ethier's, and to be honest, I expected similar results. Much to my surprise, however, he shitted on a ball over the center field wall and sent me into a state of shock. In fact, it's a state that i'm still sorta in. Seriously though, i'm pretty tired from all the excitement/celebration, so i'm just gonna list some of my thoughts in little lists. I think it's the best format anyway. :o Extremely Small Sample Size Reasons To Get Excited * The Dodgers were pretty unlucky on their...

Game 1 NLDS / Dodgers @ Cubs

Wed, 01 Oct 2008 21:24:33 -0500

Game Chat | Press Pass | BR Preview

SP	Ryan Dempster	SP	Derek Lowe
	17-6, 2.96, 187 K,76 BB, 206.2 IP	(2008)	14-11, 3.24, 147 K, 45 BB, 211 IP
A	A	(Playoffs)	5-4, 3.34, 43 K, 23 BB, 67.1 IP
LF	Alfonso Soirano	SS	#Rafael Furcal
RF	*Kosuke Fukudome	C	Russell Martin
1B	Derrek Lee	LF	Manny Ramirez
3B	Aramis Ramirez	RF	*Andre Ethier
C	Geovany Soto	1B	*James Loney
CF	*Jim Edmonds	CF	Matt Kemp
2B	Mark DeRosa	2B	*Blake DeWitt
SS	Ryan Theriot	C	Casey Blake
P	Ryan Dempster	P	Derek Lowe

The calender page flips to October and the Cubs are in the unfamiliar position of being the favorites. Well maybe not the favorites to win it all, I think that honor belongs to the Angels or Red Sox, but certainly the team to beat in the National League. TBS will wax poetic about curses and goats and I'll set the over/under line on a Bartman clip at top of the third. And I'll roll my eyes with each and every mention.A

But here we are, on the cusp of the playoffs with a Cubs team that is as good as many of us have ever seen; on the heels of a season that exceeded even the loftiest of expectations. Is this the team to break the drought? I don't know, but I sure do believe it is.A

As for today's game...A

I think Game 1 is actually the toughest match-up for the Cubs, on the blind assumption that Zambrano and Harden are healthy and ready to let loose. Lowe's been tough at Wrigley and has a good post-season track record. Compare that to Ryan Dempster, who has also been good at Wrigley, but has all of one inning of post-season experience. A And not be all doom and gloom, but since the inception of the Wild Card, the team winning Game 1 has gone 34-18.A

Well here it is, baseball's second season...may it treat the Cubs as well as the first.A

Dodgers Lineup for Game #1

Wed, 01 Oct 2008 21:24:17 -0500

To the casual baseball fan, or to even an avid baseball fan who lives east of the Rockies (the mountains or the team), the Dodgers lineup tonight is chock full of guys you may not have heard of or knew were on the team. In fact, 2 guys weren't on the team until July, 5 guys are in their third season or less, leaving Rafael Furcal (in his third full season) as the longest-tenured Dodger in the starting lineup.

1. Rafael Furcal, SS-Furcal was a question mark to even make the roster, so to see him take the first pitch of the NLDS series, it is a surprise. Furcal was one of the best hitters in baseball...that is, until he went down with an inury back in early May. He came back to play four games at the end of the season for the Dodgers, collecting 2 hits, but never playing a full game. He may be the starter, but I'm betting Furcal doesn't finish the game. I am obviously not as baseball savvy as Joe Torre, but I don't think I want a guy who has played nine innings of baseball in nearly 5 months to be my tablesetter. As a Cubs fans, however, I say kudos.

2. Russell Martin, C-The best young N.L. catcher not named Soto, Martin was an All Star last year. He had a solid, but not spectacular junior season in the Bigs, hitting .280 with 13 HR's (both down from last year). The one number that is up for him is his OBP, which was .385 for the season. Despite being a backstop, he managed to steal 18 bags, so he can steal a base for the Dodgers if needed. He is also solid behind the dish, winning a gold glove last year.

3. Manny Ramirez, LF-Anyone else tired of hearing about Manny, how he's going to carry the team, what a great leader he is, how hard is playing? Yeah, me too. Big time. Yes, Manny finished the season hitting .399 for the Dodgers and hit 17 HR's in 53 games, but he also managed 2 errors for a .979 fielding percentage. While he's a concern, remember that he is only a .269 lifetime hitter in the post-season, including .227 in the division round. His best numbers come in the Championship series, where not surprisingly, his numbers are padded by playing the all-too-familiar Red Sox.

4. Andre Ethier, RF-Ethier is in his second full season with the Dodgers and put up some solid numbers. He hit .305 this year with 20 HR's. The surprising fact is that he is in the cleanup spot, a place where he only saw 28 AB's this year. He provides Torre the left-handed stick in the middle of the lineup.

5. James Loney, 1B-Loney is in his first full season as a starter for the Dodgers. As with Martin, Loney put up solid, but not spectacular numbers this year: .289 BA, 13 HR's. He and his 1-sack counterpart may have the most GIDP's in the history of the game for a season...Loney had 25 (just falling short of D.Lee's 27). Loney's only hit .181 over the last month, so hopefully he can continue to clear up the basepaths if Manny or Ethier get on base.

6. Matt Kemp, CF-The 23 years, 8 days old Kemp isn't even the youngest starter in the Dodgers lineup tonight. He is in his first full season, and put up solid but not spectacular numbers (do I sound like a broken record yet?). A .290 batting average, 18 HR's, and 35 stolen bases. OK, so maybe he put up some better than solid numbers, especially for a CF. But, despite his good fortunes, he can be had via the strikeout, which he collected 153 of this year. Kemp is one to watch for the OF, as he has a hose. 16 assists this year between RF and CF. Quade probably isn't going to be sending many against him if they're close.

7. Blake DeWitt, 2B-DeWitt started the year as a fresh-faced 21 year old 3-sack. He ends his rookie year as a 22 and 2 month old 2-sack. He hit .264 with 9 HR's in 364 AB's. Despite being left-handed, DeWitt has actually fared much better against the lefties, hitting .286 with a .404 OBP. DeWitt also has fared much better at Dodger Stadium than on the road, so let's hope that continues. DeWitt is the eighth Dodger to man second base this year.

8. Casey Blake, 3B-Many have praised Blake's contribution to this team (usually as an afterthought after gushing about Manny for 45 minutes). What he brings to the table is the ability to hit the long ball (21 between Cleveland and LA) and a solid defensive 3-sack. He committed only 2 errors at third while with the Dodgers and hit 10 HR's. But don't expect much out of him with the bat another the power. Despite the 10 HR's, he only managed 23 RBI's. He ground into 9 double plays in just 211 AB's, which are D.Lee/J. Loney type numbers.

Stay tuned (or logged on) to TD for updates as soon as the Cubs lineup is announced

Small White Ball's 2008 MLB Playoffs Predictions

Wed, 01 Oct 2008 21:23:30 -0500

Originally a baseball-only blog, SWB has changed a lot since its inception but at the core, you'll find a piece of rawhide, wood and aluminum because, hey, that's what Little Leaguers use. Through the MLB postseason, you'll find game wraps, analysis and more here at the Ball. Long nights, sleepy mornings and some afternoon baseball with the opening rounds.

National League Divisional Series (best-of-five)

>Phillies over Brewers in three games: Almost every bit of my rationale of picking the Brewers to get swept was proven wrong by the Rockies last season, but I just can't see Milwaukee being able to keep up the emotional pace they've been on the last few weeks. Their manager was FIRED just weeks ago and now, they're in the postseason? I wish it could be different, but when you're throwing your ace out there every three days, the law of averages states that it has to catch up eventually. They would need near perfection in order to win this series and I just don't see how it can happen. Great story, but not this year.

For Philly, they need to erase the taste of last year's sweep by Colorado out of their mouths and get off to a hot start in the first few games. This team has the ability to be offensively dominant and Ryan Howard is hitting his stride at just the right time. It is going to come down to whether guys like Joe Blanton and Jamie Moyer can get it done and whether closer Brad Lidge can continue his 2008 success or regress back to the end of his Houston days. They should have enough firepower to advance without issue.

>Cubs over Dodgers in five games: This one is a tough series to pick, but I'm going with Chicago in five games. This team just seems like they are built for short series play with offense (Derrek Lee, the underrated Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto), pitching (Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Rich Harden) and bullpen arms. Forget all of that curse business: this team is really, really good. However, this will go all out the window if they lose the first game. Remember last season when they looked 100% lifeless against Arizona? This series will live and die with Lou Pinella's ability to get his squad motivated to meet the challenges that lie ahead.

I love this Dodgers squad and the fact that Derek Lowe has been blazing since Greg Maddux came aboard. Boston fans should always look favorably on D-Lo's 2004 postseason and that experience will come into play this season. Manny Ramirez is an awesome postseason performer (.269/24 HR/64 RBI career), but what about the rest of the gang? James Loney? Russell Martin? Matt Kemp? Jeff Kent? Thanks solely to Ramirez' bat, Joe Torre has another postseason performance but this one won't go past the first round.

American League Divisional Series (best-of-five)

>Rays over White Sox in five games: Sure, the White Sox did this same routine back in 2005 and ran the table, but this is a different time and place now. I don't trust that White Sox pitching staff one bit, even with John Danks' performance Tuesday night. The offense has too much of that feast-or-famine nature which will be a bit starving considering the Rays' starters are well-rested. Alexei Ramirez, however, is an offensive catalyst that is going to be a Top-5 SS in this league within the next few seasons and is loving this spotlight right now. I guess being stuck in Cuba for all those years will do that to a guy.

The Rays are a very, very potent team that has benefitted from having some rest this week. I like how they've been able to set up their starters for this first round with Shields, Kazmir and and Garza, despite Kazmir's struggles as of late. What this series will come down to is how being in the moment affects the Rays' young players that have never been in this position before like Upton, Longoria and Carlos Pena. I also am wondering why they decided to activate Carl Crawford for the ALDS considering he hasn't played regularly since early-August. The fact they won the AL East and made it this far means they're playing with house money at this point...we'll just see if more than 10,000 people show up to see them cash it in.

>Red Sox over Angels in five games: Anaheim's postseason struggles against Boston in recent postseason action has been well-documented and until the Angels manage to prove themselves, how can you pick against Boston? Veteran players that have won World Series titles, a pitching staff featuring three double-digit winners in Lester, Dice-K and Beckett and a history of postseason success? Yeah, I'll take that.

I don't think the Angels have a chance because of several reasons: not playing a meaningful games in weeks, a top closer in K-Rod that is waiting to see his arm fly off due to overuse and oh yeah, that woeful past against the Sox in postseason action. A very-wise World Champion once said that in order to be the man, you have to beat the man. While Anaheim's veteran-laden club, I need to see the man beaten to believe the hype.

ALCS: Red Sox over Rays in 6
NLCS: Phillies over Cubs in 7

World Series: Red Sox over Phillies in 6

Details on the Championship Series and World Series will come after the Divisional Series conclude.

Josh Nason started Small White Ball in 2007 and is the main contributor of content for the site. A long-time writer, his work can also be read at sites like RopesRingandCage.com, EmailMarketingGuy.com and others. He also does radio appearances and was on TV once, albeit for a lame public television game show. He can be reached at josh@smallwhiteball.com.

2008 NLDS Preview: Cubs Run Prevention vs. Dodgers Scoring

Wed, 01 Oct 2008 04:30:40 -0500

Cubs Offense vs. Dodgers Pitching and Defense

Let's finish the preview and see what the Cubs pitching can do against the Dodgers bats.

Dodgers Offense vs. Cubs Pitching and Defense

Dodgers Hitting: .264/.333/.399 .732 OPS(11th in OPS), 126 SB's at a 75% success rate (3rd and 5th respectively)
Cubs Pitching: .242/.316/.395 .711 OPS, 3.87 ERA (1st in BA, 3rd in ERA, , 2nd in the rest,)

Dodgers Hitting vs. Right Handers: .260/.326/.390 .716 OPS
Dodgers Hitting vs. Leftt Handers: .275/.350/.419 .769 OPS
Cubs Pitching vs. Right Handers: .237/.302/.385 .687 OPS
Cubs Pitching vs. Left Handers: .249/.336/.409 .745 OPS

Dodgers are 53-57 when a right-handed pitchers starts the game, 31-21 when a left-handers starts.

Dodgers Defense: .706 DER (1st in NL), .832 RZR (6th in the NL)

Cubs Rotation: Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Rich Harden, Ted Lilly

All Dodgers vs. Ryan Dempster (link) : 175 AB's vs current Cubs with an aggregate line of: .303/.376/.474 .851 OPS, 2.92 ERA in 12.1 IP versus the Dodgers this year.
Best Dodger Hiiter: Andruw Jones has a .908 OPS against him in 40 AB's
Worst Dodger Hitter: Jeff Kent has a .688 OPS in 33 AB's.
Trend: 5-2 in his last 10 starts with a 3.10 ERA

All Dodgers vs. Carlos Zambrano (link) : 199 AB's vs current Cubs with an aggregate line of: .221/.313/.296 .609 OPS
Best Cub Hiiter: Russell Martin has a 1.513 OPS against him in 13 AB's
Worst Cub Hitter: Rafael Furcal has a .384 OPS in 23 AB's.
Trend: 2-2 in his last 9 starts with a 7.28 ERA

All Dodgerss vs. Rich Harden (link) : 34 AB's vs current Cubs with an aggregate line of: .147/.293/.441 .734 OPS
Best Cub Hiiter: Alfonso Soriano has a .929 OPS against him in 7 AB's
Worst Cub Hitter: A few Cubs went 0 fer in his 2 starts from this year...
Trend: 1-0 in his last 3 starts with a 2.65 ERA

All Dodgers vs. Ted Lilly (link) : 144 AB's vs current Cubs with an aggregate line of: .243/.315/.528 .843 OPS
Best Cub Hiiter: Manny Ramirez has a .959 OPS against him in 42 AB's
Worst Cub Hitter: Casey Blake has a .673 OPS in 21 AB's.
Trend: 4-0 in his last 4 starts with a 1.93 ERA

Cubs Bullpen: 4.10 ERA as relievers was 8th in the NL. 1.73 WPA was 5th in the NL.

Likely to See: Neal Cotts, Sean Marshall, Jeff Samardzija, Carlos Marmol Kerry Wood

September Stats for Dodgers Hitters (link):

Nomar Garciaparra: 1.403 OPS
Jeff Kent 1.375 OPS (in 8 AB's)
Andre Ethier 1.249 OPS, 8 2B's
Manny Ramirez 1.218 OPS, 8 HR's
Blake DeWitt .872 OPS, 18 BB's
Pablo Ozuna .833 OPS
Russell Martin .785 OPS
Juan Pierre .758 OPS
Matt Kemp .750 OPS
Casey Blake .711 OPS
Angel Berroa .689 OPS
James Loney .526 OPS
Rafael Furcal .522 OPS (in 4 Ab's)
Danny Ardoin .500 OPS

Some Questions:

Will Ryan Dempster keep it going in the playoffs?
How healthy and effective are Zambrano and Harden?
Who will bridge the gap between the starters and Marmol and Wood?
Can the Dodgers offense sustain their recent hot streak?
How effective will Rafael Furcal be?
Will the Cubs pitch to Manny Ramirez and if not, can the rest of the Dodgers lineup make the Cubs pay?

Thoughts: The only reason this series has any chance of being interesting is because questions linger on whether Carlos Zambrano and Rich Harden are healthy enough to be at the top of their games.A That and the fact that Lou might use Bob Howry in a game. Nonetheless, the Dodgers offense certainly did improve with the addition of Manny Ramirez, going from 4.14 Runs Scored per game to 4.70, which if they had done that all year would be good for the 6th best offense rather than 13th. I already brought up my concerns that the Dodgers hot streak was inflated by a soft September schedule, but there's no doubt they are a better team than their full season numbers show.

Unfortunately no one but Zambrano and Harden (and maybe Lou) really know if they're at full strength and if they're not, there isn't much any Cubs or their fans can do about it. Sure, Lou could move Lilly up earlier in the series, but the Dodgers have had a lot more luck against lefties than righties, so there isn't much to gain.

The only real concern I have is if the starters can go at least six and hopefully seven innings. The bridge between the starters and Marmol and Wood is the weak link of this team and every pitch made by someone other than Dempster, Zambrano, Harden, Lilly or Marmol is a going to be a dangerous one.A

Defensively, the Cubs probably have been pretty solid all year. Lee and Fukudome are probably the two best defenders but there really isn't a weak member in the entire group. Soriano can be a little adventurous, but he also keeps teams from even thinking of taking an extra base and Ramirez's little bout of wild throws seems to have ended.A

Final Prediction: Cubs in 4.A They split at Wrigley and the Cubs take both at Dodger Stadium.

2008 NLDS Preview: Cubs Scoring vs. Dodgers Run Prevention

Tue, 30 Sep 2008 19:22:17 -0500

I'm a little under the weather, so bear with me and this rather bare bones preview...all the substance, none of the fluff.

I never understood the positional breakdowns that many folks do for a series or playoff preview. I understand a team is only as good as the sum of its parts, but Derrek Lee will never have to battle against James Loney at any point in the series. It's more about how one team's pitching and defense will fare against the other team's lineup.

Cubs Offense vs. Dodgers Pitching and Defense

Cubs Hitting: .278/.354/.443 .797 OPS(1st in all those except BA, which they were 2nd), 87 SB's at a 72% success rate (8th in NL)
Dodgers Pitching: .251/.315/.376 .691 OPS, 3.68 ERA (1st in all those except BA, which they were 2nd)

Cubs Hitting vs. Right Handers: .274/.350/.443 .793 OPS
Dodgers Pitching vs. Right Handers: .239/.300/.361 .661 OPS
Dodgers Pitching vs. Left Handers: .268/.334/.396 .730 OPS

Cubs are 64-48 when a right-handed pitchers starts the game.

Dodgers Defense: .693 DER (9th in NL), .825 RZR (12th in the NL)

Dodgers Rotation: Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Greg Maddux

All Cubs vs. Derek Lowe (link) : 202 AB's vs current Cubs with an aggregate line of: .243/.282/.366 .648 OPS, 1-0 with 27 IP and a 2.67 ERA at Wrigley Field.
Best Cub Hiiter: Derrek Lee has a .969 OPS against him in 28 AB's
Worst Cub Hitter: Jim Edmonds has a .474 OPS in 30 AB's.
Trend: 6-1 in his last 10 starts with a 1.27 ERA

All Cubs vs. Chad Billingsley (link) : 63 AB's vs current Cubs with an aggregate line of: .222/.300/.381 .681 OPS
Best Cub Hiiter: Mark DeRosa has a 1.167OPS against him in 6 AB's
Worst Cub Hitter: Jim Edmonds has a .311 OPS in 11 AB's.
Trend: 5-1 in his last 10 starts with a 3.45 ERAA

All Cubs vs. Hiroki Kuroda (link) : 51 AB's vs current Cubs with an aggregate line of: .216/.259/.235 .495 OPS, Threw complete game shutout against Cubs in Dodger Stadium earlier this year
Best Cub Hiiter: Alfonso Soriano has a .929 OPS against him in 7 AB's
Worst Cub Hitter: A few Cubs went 0 fer in his 2 starts from this year...
Trend: 3-2 in his last 10 starts with a 2.57 ERA

All Cubs vs. Greg Maddux (link) : 233 AB's vs current Cubs with an aggregate line of: .236/.258/.339 .597 OPS,
Best Cub Hiiter: Aramis Ramirez has a .804 OPS against him in 21 AB's
Worst Cub Hitter: Derrek Lee has a .622 OPS in 59 AB's.
Trend: 2-4 in 7 starts as a Dodger with a 5.09 ERAA

Dodgers Bullpen:A 3.33 ERA as relievers lead the NL. 4.68 WPA was 3rd in the NL behind Phillies and Astros.

Likely to See: Cory Wade, Joe Beimel, Takashi Saito, and Jonathan Broxton

September Stats for Cubs Hitters (link):

Aramis Ramirez: .956 OPS, 3 HR's, 8 2B's
Jim Edmonds .929 OPS, 4 HR
Micah Hoffpauir .918 OPS
Mike Fontenot .910 OPS
Alfonso Soriano .847 OPS, 6 HR, 13 BB's
Derrek Lee .785 OPS, 25 K's, 8 2B's
Geovany Soto .778 OPS
Mark DeRosa .747 OPS
Daryle Ward .689 OPS
Ryan Theriot .676 OPS, 10 BB's
Henry Blanco .667 OPS
Ronny Cedeno .630 OPS
Reed Johnson .592 OPS
Kosuke Fukudome .577 OPS

Some Questions:

Can the Dodgers defense make the plays?A
Can the Cubs offense stay out of the double play?
Can the Cubs offense provide a lead before getting into a tough Dodgers bullpen?
When will a possible Game 4 be played (Dodger Stadium becomes a lot more hitter friendly during the day)?

Thoughts: The Dodgers do have good pitching, that is undeniable with their league leading team ERA. But the numbers are a bit misleading due to their playing in the NL West and in a very friendly pitcher's park. The Dodgers pitching played 44% of their games versus the NL West which contained the almighty offenses of the Rockies (8th in Runs Scored even with the Coors Field Effect), Diamondbacks (10th), Giants (15th),A and Padres (16th). That's the way to make good look like it's great, which this Dodgers pitching staff is not.A

A matter of fact, it could be considered a pretty FLAKEY staff as well, if you believe Baseball Prospectus. While us Cubs fans wonder which Zambrano will show up in Game 2, Dodger fans should worry more about which Kuroda (1st), Lowe(13th) or Billingsley(27th) show up for their games.

The Dodgers do catch a few breaks here. They've been tougher on righties most of the season and the Cubs will likely trot out lineups with only two lefties (Edmonds and either Fontenot or Fukudome). If DeRosa is still hurt, it might be three lefties. Not only that, butA one of those lefties (Edmonds) hasn't had much luck versus many of the Dodgers starters.

They Dodgers staff isA also pretty good at inducing the ground ball with G/F rates of 2.60, 1.70, 1.85 from Lowe, Billingsley and Kuroda, respectively. Now the Cubs double play propensity has been blown out of proportion, they've only hit into 134 which is 6th in the NL and considering they have the highest OBP in the league, that (likely) means they've had the most opportunties to hit into a double play as well. Compare that to the Dodgers offense which lead the league in hitting into double plays but was only 6th in Team OBP.

The Dodgers bullpen is good, although questions linger with Saito back from the disabled list. It'll remain to be seen how effective and in what role he'll be used. Right now it looks like Broxton will keep the closers job with Saito in the set-up role. They do possess a good 7th inning combination in righty Cory Wade and lefty Joe Beimel that'll try to keep those Cubs late-inning rallies in check.

Preventings runs though is more than just pitching and the Dodgers defense might end up being their Achilles Heel. Rafael Furcal returns from the disabled listand should provide a boost for their offense, but his bad back might hinder him on the defensive end, plus he replaced a solid defensive option in Angel Berroa. Jeff Kent might be back as well and if you have nothing good to say, don't say anything at all. Russ Martin threw out 24.7% of runners this year, below Geovany Soto's 26.7% and the Cubs should look to take an extra base when the opportunity arises in what will likely be some low-scoring games. And while Andruw Jones couldn't hit a lick, the new outfield of Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier should provide a few gaps in the outfield.

The Cubs offense will definitely have their work cut for them and this series will certainly test the good pitching beats good hitting adage. I think the Cubs would be wise to play a little more small ball than they're use to and stay out double play situations as much as they can and put as much pressure on a weak Dodgers defense that they can. It's not the strategy I normally prefer for the marathon that is the 162-game season, but in this series I think the Cubs would be wise to take advantage of the Dodgers faults in these areas.A

The Playoffs Are All About Sample Size

Tue, 30 Sep 2008 06:55:38 -0500

Try to keep that little tidbit in mind as we all watch the Dodgers in the playoffs starting tomorrow afternoon. Yes, I know it can be hard to separate yourself like that, but i'm begging you not to get too high or too low on a player just because he may run hot or cold for a 3-5 game period (hopefully longer for the Dodgers). Basically, if Matt Kemp goes 22-35 with 7 HR in the playoffs, try to refrain from anointing him the second coming. Conversely, if Russell Martin goes 4-28 with 9 strikeouts, it doesn't mean his career is on the verge of an epic collapse. Fact is, one playoff year (much less one playoff series) is hardly indicative of anything at all. For instance, keep in mind that even the ridiculously great Manny Ramirez had a .569 OPS for a 5-game stretch with the Dodgers. Had he done that in the next 5 games against the Cubs, he would probably be seen as a huge...

Around The Web: Yankee Stadium, Matt Kemp, And The Playoffs

Sat, 27 Sep 2008 19:19:07 -0500

Unless something ridiculous happens, I don't really care all that much about the games the Dodgers are playing right now. I just want everybody to get through them healthy.

Baseball Prospectus: I don't really like the Yankees, nor do I particularly care about the stadium, but this is a really nice article.

True Blue LA: ToyCannon sees a lot left to be desired from Matt Kemp's 2008 season. While I agree that he's far from a finished product, I think his 2008 has been a relative success. The rest of my thoughts can be found in their comments section.

Sons Of Steve Garvey: Matt Kemp is such a fucking dick! Seriously though, look at the comments for that post. It's hilarious. :o

Dodger Thoughts: Stuff like this is why Jon gets to write for Sports Illustrated and stuff. Yeah, all of us Dodger bloggers tend to harp on the fact that it's absurd to blame team struggles on the kids, but when the local media can be so against them at times, it's hard not to constantly hammer the point home.

Vegas Watch: They take a look at some predictions made back in April and then evaluate the best and worst. Steve Phillips from ESPN has the two worst predictions, and PECOTA from Baseball Prospectus has the two best predictions. I'm shocked. No, really. Flabbergasted, even. Aghast. Stupefied.

Los Angeles Times: His main point is that the Angels have a better team than the Dodgers but are still getting far less local press. Well boo fucking hoo. That's what you get when your crappy franchise has to attach itself like a leech to Los Angeles for more revenue. Also, i'd rather have an inferior team and fans who aren't the bandwagon champions of baseball. They are douches too.

Los Angeles Times: T.J. Simers brings us a rather humorous story about an old woman who's a life long Dodger fan. She's sort of a sassy old lady too, which makes it awesome.

ShysterBall: Is Frank McCourt going to sue Andruw Jones for being fat? I doubt it, but it's an interesting analysis anyway.

Dodger Thoughts: Some playoff roster speculation.

Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness: Might the Dodgers have a real chance at the World Series?

Scout: Congratulations to James Loney for winning the Roy Campanella Award.

Sons Of Steve Garvey: If McCourt wants the Dodgers and us fans to step it up, he should too.

Sports Illustrated: John Donovan questions whether the Dodgers are really playoff worthy.

Around The Web: Yankee Stadium, Matt Kemp, And The Playoffs

Sat, 27 Sep 2008 19:19:07 -0500

Philadelphia Phillies - Burrell's Out, Who's In?

Thu, 25 Sep 2008 14:24:23 -0500

Davey Lopes awkwardly and inadvertently gave us a glimpse into the future plans of the Philadelphia Phillies and their outfield. Apparently, Pat Burrell isn't in those plans. The direction they seem to be heading, which I fully endorse, is to get a quality center-fielder in the offseason, shift Shane Victorino back to right, and move Jayson Werth to left field. Lopes said as much in his fortuitous statement to Tom McCarthy during his in game interview. The problem, however, is that there are few options at center field through free agency this offseason. Here's the list…