Yardbarker: Juan Cruz

Top 8 Free Agent Relief Pitchers This Hot Stove Season

Fri, 27 Nov 2009 06:51:42 -0500

Rafael Soriano on 5-10-07 23..." width="199" /> Image via Wikipedia

For many teams, especially teams that are successful in the postseason, success is predicated on a solid bullpen. However, while stalwarts like Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman grab headlines and notoriety, as a whole, bullpen arms are significantly more volatile than the two legendary closers. Bullpen arms, especially middle relievers, tend to come out of nowhere. Relievers are often times a combination of failed starters, hard-throwers with little command, and finesse pitchers with gimmick pitches (knuckleball, screwball, forkball). In the case of middle relievers, they typically possess very few of the tools of late inning relievers, and simply throw a lot of strikes.

Last year Juan Cruz and Joe Beimel spent most of the offseason unsigned, because while some teams have begun to value relievers accurately (most relievers are pretty replaceable), the Elias ranking system which determines Type A and B free agents was exposed for its flawed valuation of relief pitchers. While players like Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia were swooped up as soon as they desired, Beimel and Cruz spent most of the season unemployed, not because they were bad pitchers, but that their signing team would have had to give up a first round pick in order to sign them, and the combined compensation didn’t outweigh projected production. Sabermetricians will point to luck, and disproportionate swings of BABIP as the reason for some player’s inflated stats. Unfortunately, even the most durable, heavily-used relievers produce in such a small sample set that their overall statistical production can be massively affected by such swings, and in the case of Beimel and Cruz, positive statistical production can prove negative to their pocket books. That stated, there is essentially a split market between Type A and B free agents.

*Note: Players with options will be kept off the list unless their options are projected as unexercised. No arbitration-eligible players will be included unless they are projected as non-tender free agents. Ages represent age on June 30, 2010

Type A relievers

1. Rafael Soriano, 30 years old

Since converting to pitcher from shortstop, Soriano has always had an electrifying, mid-90s fastball. Last year, his first full season as a closer, he picked up 0.3 miles-per-hour on his fastball and almost two miles-per-hour on his slider. Soriano struck out 3.78 batters for every walk he surrendered, and struck out 12.13 batters per nine innings.

Soriano may regress some in 2010, he gave up a higher percentage of line drives than the year before, and had a lower home run to fly ball ratio than his career averages. Those numbers are especially volatile, and could regress to their mean, but he’ll still strike a lot of batters out, and is relatively young.

2. Jose Valverde, 32 years old

There seems to be a pundit-driven swing to influence fans to believe that Valverde is a lesser pitcher than he really is. Valverde seems to be stuck with a stigma of being a one-pitch pitcher, which he truly was in the early years of his career. However, much has changed in the last three years of Valverde’s career.

In the past three years, while posting a FIP around 3.50, Valverde has begun to throw his split-finger fastball with much more regularity. In the past two seasons Valverde has caused batters to swing at more pitches outside the strike zone (33 and 32 percent) than 2007, when he had batters swinging more frequently at pitches outside the strike zone than any year to that point besides his rookie season.

3. Mike Gonzalez, 32 years old

Between Gonzalez and Soriano, the Braves had one of the most formidable one-two punches to finish a game last season. What makes Gonzalez unique, apart from being a left-handed power pitcher, is that while he dominates left-handed batters (.194/.255/.327 in 2009) he’s also very effective against righties (.218/.340/.359).

Gonzalez hasn’t closed regularly since 2006, but he was dominant then and remains a high-end late reliever, and has increased value because he’s left handed. Gonzalez has a place in any bullpen, but could be very expensive.

4. Rafael Betancourt, 35 years old

Betancourt has always had good stuff, but a trip to Colorado for a pitcher who gives up a lot of fly balls, but also strikes a lot of batters out, seemed destined to prove his worth as a pitcher. Betancourt responded well, giving up 17 hits and only five runs in 25.1 innings.

Betancourt has never been given the opportunity to close regularly, but probably would have been a better option in Cleveland, where he began—and played all of his career until last year, than free agent signee Kerry Wood. Especially because, unlike Wood, Betancourt doesn’t walk many batters.

5. Billy Wagner, 38 years old

Wagner is definitely no longer the pitcher who can reach triple-digits with his fastball, but he still averages over 94 miles-per-hour. Coming off of Tommy John surgery, Wagner pitched in limited time and was very successful (1.72 ERA, 26 SOs, and a 1.021 WHIP in 15.2 innings pitched).

Wagner’s age and injury history place him lower on the list. He was an all-but-missing piece in a bad Mets bullpen in 2008, and it isn’t often that players recover from Tommy John surgery so well in their late-30s.

However, if Wagner’s arm holds up, and his numbers stay somewhere near the small 2009 sample, he’s a high-quality bullpen arm.

Type B and non-compensation relievers

1. Takashi Saito, 40 years old

Saito is far from the dominating pitcher he was as a 36-year-old rookie. The Japanese import however, has experienced far-over-documented struggles. The biggest deviation from the rest of his brief-but-consistently-dominant career was that 2009 was the first year he didn’t average more than one strikeout per inning.

Saito hasn’t lost significant velocity on any of his pitches, and figures to be a steal in this free agent class. His time remaining in the Major Leagues is probably limited, but he can be some team’s productive, late-inning reliever for the rest of his time here.

2. Joe Beimel, 33 years old

Last year Beimel, by way of his type A status, failed to cash in on three straight productive seasons as a lefty reliever in Los Angeles. This year, however, reduced status should work very much to Beimel’s benefit.

Beimel has shown consistency, and has a pretty high ground-ball-percentage, so while he allows batters to put the ball in play, and relies significantly on luck, he limits the severity of the outcome of that luck by keeping the ball out of the air.

3. Chan Ho Park, 37 years old

Park’s numbers won’t be eye-popping, but he’s something of a Swiss Army Knife in any bullpen. Last season with the Phillies he started, pitched in the middle of games, and in some late inning situations.

Park has never returned to the near-Cy-Young form he had in Los Angeles, but he’s throwing his fastball less, and mixing up his off-speed pitches well, and is a valuable, and likely inexpensive arm for a team to put in their bullpen.

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Ten Burning Free Agent Questions (Part I)

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 00:00:00 -0500

With free agency beginning at midnight, Jorge Says No! will examine ten burning free agent questions. We will break down the 10 questions into 3 parts because quite frankly, my extended responses became far more extended then I initially intended them to be. 1. Where will the money come from?-As you sit back and wonder where some of the big name free agents are going to end up, here is a sobering thought for you: many of the notoriously aggressive spending teams cannot do that this year. Caut...

2010 Starters/Relievers: Surprise, Surprise - not much changes

Wed, 21 Oct 2009 13:09:51 -0500

As it stands, here are the pitchers for 2010. The analysis was to look at who remains, can we jettison some dead weight, and are there any holes to be filled. (Obviously there are some holes to be filled, just hopefully not by the likes of Sidney Ponson or Lamey Wrong.) --Salaries adapted from Cot's, with some estimations made (nothing crazy). Starters / tRA / 2010 Salary 1. 1 Z. Greinke / 2.35 / 7.25 2. 2 G....

Welcome Back Waechter

Thu, 06 Aug 2009 23:54:43 -0500

Today RHP-Juan Cruz was placed on the 15-day DL today and the team activated RHP-Doug Waechter to take the open spot on the roster. After today’s win, the Royals are a dreadful 42-66 and still trail the Nationals, who also won, by 5 games for the worst record in MLB. Yet today, the Royals are [...]

Kansas City Royals: Five Things to Look Forward to in 2009

Mon, 30 Mar 2009 10:09:18 -0500

1. The Mexicutioner-For the first time in a long time, the Royals have a dominant closer. In Joakim Soria, the Royals have found themselves a diamond in the rough, who is on his way towards becoming one of the most dominant closers in baseball. Armed with a wide variety of pitches and great control, Soria has made his living deceiving hitters. If the Royals can get the ball to Soria with a lead, then they will win lots of games in 2009.2. Zack Greinke-Expectations are high this season for Gre...

2009 Royals: Who Needs OBP?

Tue, 03 Mar 2009 06:36:11 -0500

By Gary The Kansas City Royals

Royals Sign Juan Cruz

Sat, 28 Feb 2009 21:11:46 -0500

Righthanded reliever Juan Cruz was signed by the Royals on Cruz signed a two-year contract with an option for 2011. The deal was believed to be worth $2.25 million for this year, $3.25 million for 2010 and a club option for $4 million for 2011 with a $500,000 Cruz, 30, ...

Twins Eye Cruz

Sat, 21 Feb 2009 14:19:28 -0500

MLB.com is reporting that the Twins have made a contract offer to Juan Cruz and may try to work out a sign-and-trade with the Diamondbacks. "Obviously, it's tricky," Arizona general manager Josh Byrnes said Monday. "[Another team] would have to work out a deal with someone else and then we would have to get back in player value something that we feel is close to the respective picks." The Twins may land one of the top relievers in the game. He brings experience, a good work ethic, and excellent numbers to the Twins, who could use Cruz to fill in for the rehabbing Pat Neshek.?
Last season, Cruz went 4-0 with a 2.61 ERA and 71 strikeouts, in just 51.2 innings of work.?
This story was approved by MLB Rumors.

MLB To Amend Type A Free Agent Rules

Mon, 16 Feb 2009 15:39:09 -0500

According to Ken Rosenthal, Major League Baseball, the players union, the Diamondbacks, and Juan Cruz's agents are discussing a way to do a sign-and-trade, despite that conflicting with the collective bargaining agreement. Once a free agent is signed, they cannot be traded until June 15 without the players consent. This could happen for the remaining free agents as well, but we are a week or so away from seeing anything happen.
A sign-and-trade works out great for the Diamondbacks, who will sign him for a low price and likely receive a good prospect or two in return. A team like the Cardinals, who are low on cash, are back in play now that it could only cost a prospect or two.
This story was approved by MLB Rumors.

Rosenthal

Mon, 09 Feb 2009 03:20:49 -0500

Ken Rosenthal has a few interesting notes today. First of all, the Yanks are not interested in Juan Cruz and I don't blame them. He`s a tempting target but I`m unwilling to decimate the 2009 draft anymore. Supposedly, its a very deep draft and if the Yanks can go over-slot then they can still get ...

Yankees Sign Teixeira

Mon, 19 Jan 2009 00:41:10 -0500

Yankees sign Mark Texieira for eight years, $180MM.
Analysis: Law, Cameron, Szymborski, Brinson.
CHONE projection: 645 PA, .286/.381/.521, 32HR, 31 RAA/150; worth $20.7MM in 2009 if "good" fielding 1B.

What's funny about this is that although it set off a storm of people declaring the Yankees' spending the end of the world and calling for a salary cap, it's probably the best contract of the big three; no opt-out, and not giving five years to a guy who averages 23 starts per season. I really do hope they sign Juan Cruz, just to make it as clear as possible that this compensation "system" needs to eithher be fixed or done away with completely.

How would you rate the Yankees' signing of Mark Teixeira?
( polls)

Putz available are the Mets interested..

Thu, 04 Dec 2008 22:06:03 -0500

It's been rumored since the off-season started that the Mets could pursue Seattle closer J.J. Putz. Now trading for a set-up man makes sense because a guy like Juan Cruz will cost a long term contract and a draft pick. But at what a closer will cost in prospects it doesn't make sense to trade, ...

Juan Cruz Should Be At The Top Of The List Too

Wed, 26 Nov 2008 19:45:51 -0500

Ed Coleman of WFAN mentioned an interesting name on his blog this morning while discussing relief options for the Mets; Juan Cruz. I must say, that until I read his post, I never really gave much thought to Cruz before, so I decided to take a closer look at him and see why Coleman thought he'd be a good fit for the Mets. I was very surprised to see how dominant he has been as a reliever in the last two seasons. I expected him to be effective, but I had no idea he was this good. I comp...

Tigers to Pursue Cruz?

Tue, 21 Oct 2008 18:02:10 -0500

According to one AL executive, the Tigers plan to pursue free agent reliever Juan Cruz, hoping he can take over in a late inning relief role. Cruz was 4-0 with a 2.62 ERA for the Diamondbacks in 57 games this season, so he should be one of the more sought after free agents on the market. Not only that, but he has put together two solid years together, elevating his stats both years, which could suggest he is entering his prime.
I spoke with someone close to to Dave Dombrowski who expressed Dombrowski's desire to land a reliever, which suggests he will aggressively pursue someone relatively cheap like Cruz. While Cruz is not likely a closer, he would make for a great seventh or eighth inning guy. The Twins and Cardinals are also believed to be interested.A
This story was approved by MLB Rumors.