Yardbarker: Brian Buscher

Off-Season Roundtable: Week One

Tue, 18 Nov 2008 20:19:03 -0500

The off-season is finally here, and with it comes the first year of the Off-Season Roundtable. The weekly feature will include anywhere from three or more questions in each edition, and will be on a variety of subjects including the team's direction, minor league talk, and much more.

There are four different bloggers participating in the roundtable, and they include: myself (Twins Territory), Nick Nelson (Nick & Nick's Blog), Seth Stohs (Seth Speaks), and Jesse Lund (Twinkie Town).

Each addition will be found every Tuesday from now into the foreseeable future, and each week you’ll find the questions with each writer’s answers directly below.

Let’s get started...

Will any of the four free agents be back next season?

Seth: I guess I'd put the odds at: Eddie Guardado (0.01%), Adam Everett (4.8%), Dennys Reyes (35.6%) and Nick Punto (49.9%). The Neshek injury means that the Twins should probably offer arbitration to Dennys Reyes. If he happened to accept, you're only stuck with a one year contract. If he gets a big offer elsewhere, you get the pick. I would consider Punto at about 50/50 at this point. It all depends on if the Twins are able to acquire a solid 3B via a trade.

Nick: Given the facts that Craig Breslow proved himself to be a strong left-handed option out of the bullpen and Dennys Reyes will likely command a relatively pricey multi-year deal as a free agent, I suspect the Twins will allow him to sign elsewhere. Their best bet would be to offer him arbitration, which he will almost surely reject, so that they can receive a supplemental draft pick when he signs elsewhere. Adam Everett and Eddie Guardado will not be back. I think they'll probably re-sign Nick Punto unless they can acquire a more legitimate shortstop option via trade or free agency. So in summary, I think Punto is the most likely of the four to be retained but I wouldn't be surprised if none of them are playing in a Twins' uniform in 2009.

Twins Territory: Both Adam Everett and Eddie Guardado are goners, but Dennys Reyes and Nick Punto at least have shots to return to Minnesota.

If I’m the Twins, I at least offer Reyes arbitration so that if he does indeed leave, you at least receive a compensation pick. If he for some odd reason takes the one-year tender (highly unlikely), then you have a somewhat cheap option out of the ‘pen.

As for Punto, I would bring him back, and I think there is a decent chance that he returns. Whether Punto has played his final game with the Twins will depend on what he asks for money wise. If he will take a somewhat small deal, they should retain him as a valuable defensive infielder and spot starter off the bench.

What are the two or three biggest areas for the Twins to address this off-season?

Seth: In my mind, SS is the team's biggest need. They really don't have an internal option that is ready. I like Trevor Plouffe, but he is at least a year away. Steve Tolleson is at least a 1/2 year away. That would be the area I would focus most of my attention on. I still really like the idea of acquiring Ronny Cedeno from the Cubs. Yes, over JJ Hardy. Yunel Escobar would be excellent too, but the price would be far too high.

Secondly, I would try to find an upgrade at 3B. In my mind, that means Adrian Beltre. There are certain requirements I would have. Most important, the player would not cost too much (in players/prospects). Secondly, the guy should have just one more year left on his contract. I do believe that Danny Valencia or Luke Hughes will be ready by 2010. It's just important to ensure that the 3B replacement is better than the platoon of Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris (and maybe Matt Macri). To me, that means no to the likes of Kevin Kouzmanoff, Garrett Atkins, Hank Blalock and many others.

Finally, they need to address some contracts. First and foremost, I would give Jason Kubel a three year contract. I would give Scott Baker a four or five year deal. I would have the long-term contract talks with Francisco Liriano and Kevin Slowey. Of course, I would already be starting negotiations with Joe Mauer that would keep him in a Twins uniform beyond his current contract which runs out after the 2010 season.

Nick: This is pretty obvious I think. The Twins are set in the rotation, at first base, at catcher and in the outfield. There's a decent chance that Brendan Harris and Brian Buscher can form an adequate platoon at third base, that Punto could hold down regular shortstop duties and that Alexi Casilla can produce enough to be an everyday second baseman. Yet, I'm not confident that all those things are going to happen. I think Bill Smith should work aggressively to upgrade at least one of those positions through either trades or free agency.

The bullpen, of course, also must be viewed as an urgent issue, particularly after learning that Pat Neshek will be out of the picture for 2009. I'm generally opposed to trading for relievers or signing them as free agents because the cost tends to outweigh the benefit, and I think that the Twins probably have enough talent in their current organizational relief corps that they can get by with what they have. With that said, if an opportunity to upgrade externally presents itself and makes sense, Smith should pull the trigger.

Twins Territory: There is no question that the two major areas of need for the Twins this off-season are the bullpen and the left side of the infield.

With the loss of Pat Neshek for the entire 2009 season, and the collapse of Matt Guerrier this past season, the state of the bullpen is uncertain. It isn’t out of the questions that both Crain and Guerrier could bounce back next season or that Jose Mijares can step up and fill a set-up role. Nonetheless, the team needs to add an at least above-average arm via trade or free agency.

As for the left side of the infield, the Twins are desperate for offense from third and shortstop. Seven different players combined for 91 RBI last season, but the Twins need consistency, and must address the position for at least the next season or two (when they hope Luke Hughes is ready). Shortstop in my opinion is the biggest need. With no clear future at the position, adding a young player with some pop would be a solid move.

Are there any free agents or players available by trade that you would like to see the Twins trade for?

Seth: Free Agents - Ummm... No. The closest I could get to endorsing a free agent would be reliever Juan Cruz. He's got very good strikeout numbers and very non-good walk numbers. But he is going to make more money than I would pay for a reliever. Chad Cordero is interesting to me. He will likely miss all of the 2009 season with a torn labrum. However, he was a good closer for a few years with the Nationals. He could be signed to a very cheap 2009 contract, with a reasonably priced 2010 contract and a couple of incentives and options for a couple more years. The other name to mention is reliever Mike Lincoln. Remember he started as a Twins pitcher, but he came back in 2008 after being out FOUR years with injuries. If the Twins are looking for a cheap relief option for the bullpen, I could be OK with Lincoln.

Via Trade - as mentioned above, I would target Adrian Beltre, Ronny Cedeno and Yunel Escobar.

Nick: I've said before that I'd love to see the Twins make a move on free agent second baseman Orlando Hudson, but that probably isn't terribly realistic considering that he is likely to command an expensive long-term deal. I think Casey Blake would be a good short-term fix at third base at the right price. Adrian Beltre is the most intriguing trade candidate for third base but the Mariners might want more in return than the Twins should be willing to give up. If Smith can find a way to acquire J.J. Hardy without giving up Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano or Kevin Slowey, I think it's a logical move.

Twins Territory: There is one player that I’d really like to see the team add if they decide not to upgrade third via trade, and that is Casey Blake. Blake would likely sign a two-year deal with a possible third-year option, which would allow Hughes more time in the minors. This move would also save any trading chips that would be used on Atkins or Beltre.

I was somewhat intrigued by Orlando Cabrera at first, but now I’d say he is a definite no for me. He doesn’t impress me all that much, and it doesn’t really address the future at short. I would love to see the Twins acquire either J.J. Hardy or Yunel Escobar in a trade. They are both 27 or younger, have solid offense, and would address the position for years to come.

As for the bullpen, no free agents really stick out to me other than Juan Cruz. I don’t see the Twins signing him, so I’ll just have faith that they can in some form replace Neshek in the ‘pen.

Due to a bust schedule, Jesse was not able to send in his answers by today’s posting. They will be posted when they come in. Make sure to check back each Tuesday from now on, and we’ll be sure to let you know if there is a week off.

Most Improved Prospects: Walk Rate

Mon, 20 Oct 2008 15:49:01 -0500

In 2007, the two top prospects that led the walk rate improvement list were Luke Hughes (#2) and Brian Dinkelman (#1). Dinkelman followed up in 2008 with a solid performance at high-A Fort Myers (though he was two years older than most of the competition) and was revered by Base... ...

The 2008 Starting Rotation: Analyzing By Game Score

Mon, 20 Oct 2008 15:49:01 -0500

Game Scores, invented by Bill James, is a measuring stick of a pitcher's performance on any given day. The advance statistic accounts for all of the events a pitcher can produce in a start (walks, hits, strikeouts, home runs, innings pitched, etc) and provides ...

This Would Be a Mistake

Mon, 06 Oct 2008 18:32:02 -0500

Michael Cuddyer is overvalued by the Minnesota Twins. Do I have your attention? I hope so because Bill Smith and the Twins are rumored toA be shopping left fielder Delmon Young. I mean, with the emergence of Denard Span and Brian Buscher this year along with the clear productivity of Young I was planning on putting together a [...]

Failure in Minnesota

Thu, 02 Oct 2008 16:56:17 -0500

Staying in contention all season could be see as a success for the young Minnesota Twins. AccuScore analyst Jonathan Lee instead views it as a colossal failure. He breaks down the five biggest mistakes that prevented Minnesota from winning the AL Central.

That’s What You Call an Old School Ass-Whoopin’!

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 15:01:11 -0500

Everyone knows these are not the glorified Billy Beane, Money Ball A's of old but they're still a major league baseball team (sort of) and the Twins took it to 'em last night. That friends, is what we refer to in the bidness as an ass-whoopin'! Not only did Kevin Slowey become the third Twins [...]

Inside The Box August 20th Edition

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 07:53:38 -0500

Today's look shows a guy pitching his way out of a guaranteed $24 million, a hitter chasing 40-40, BABIP explaining hot reliever and a cold starter, a reminder to not chase saves on draft day and lots more.

Close Call

Mon, 18 Aug 2008 12:42:19 -0500

Scott Baker pitched five scoreless innings, but he wasn’t having a good day even then. You could tell each inning that he wasn’t very good. In four of his six innings he allowed the leadoff man to reach, and it was almost as if he threw to many strikes early on.

In the sixth inning he finally fell apart after somehow allowing no runs through the first five innings. He was tagged for four runs in the inning before Gardenhire finally realized he didn’t have good stuff. Jesse Crain relieved him and what do you know, the Twins blew another lead to the Seattle Mariners.

As I’ve mentioned before, the Twins will not be close in the playoff race at the end of September if something doesn’t change in the bullpen. Whether it be a move or just the pitchers figuring something out, it doesn’t matter. Something needs to happen, because they can’t continue to blow the number of games they have thus far and make the playoffs.

There isn’t one pitcher that can be trusted every night in the bullpen other than Joe Nathan. Matt Guerrier was pretty good early on, but since the break has been awful. He has allowed at least a run in six of his last ten appearances. Jesse Crain has been decent, but it’s either lights out, or blown out. Craig Breslow has been a great pitcher when nobody is on, but is seems as though in the last month when he enters in a jam, the runners score. Denny Reyes meanwhile has been pretty good, but he only faces lefties and throws just a few pitchers per outing.

Other than these guys there is Boof Bonser and Brian Bass. Nothing needs to be said for either player. If either player enters the game, the Twins are either far ahead or far behind.

So, now you know what the Twins need to do in order to make sure they stay in things heading down the stretch. The good news for the Twins was that this time around the offense came through and kept them tied for first in the central.

With a run in the eighth the Twins tied the game up at six apiece. In the bottom of the ninth Mauer and Morneau started the inning with two straight singles and then were bunted over by Young. Lamb was walked intentionally after he entered for Ruiz and a sacrifice fly by Brian Buscher sent the Twins home with win number sixty-nine.

By the way, a big thanks to the lefties Craig Breslow and Dennys Reyes. Both pitched great today and helped keep things close in the final innings.

Winning Touch

Mon, 18 Aug 2008 12:42:19 -0500

Carlos Silva made his return to the Metrodome, and it didn’t go as he would have liked. The story of Silva’s return was overshadowed by another solid outing from Francisco Liriano. It was Liriano’s third start since his recall and his best thus far.

Through the first three innings, Liriano looked dominant. He wasn’t striking out two hitters per inning, but rather getting hitters to ground out softly and using few pitches along the way. In the fourth inning he ran into trouble with two outs. He allowed a single and walked two hitters before getting a fairly easy grounder to third base. Brian Buscher butchered the ball and two unearned runs scored in the twenty-eight pitch inning.

For Franchise it was no big deal. In the bottom half of the inning the Twins scored seven runs to give him the lead right back. After the fourth inning Liriano really settled down and lasted seven innings. It was the grounders and low pitch counts that was really impressive. Through the night, Liriano recorded twenty-one total outs; five were via strikeout, two via fly out and a stunning fourteen were via groundout. In addition to these numbers, Liriano used just eight and ten pitches in his final two innings of work.

Offensively the Twins took off early against their former teammate and never let up. After scoring two in the first inning with back to back doubles to start the game, the Twins put a seven spot on the board in the fourth and that was all they needed.

The offense was lead by Jason Kubel who collected three hits on the night along with homerun number seventeen. Six different players drove in runners for the Twins and everybody but Morneau and Gomez collected hits.

For Silva, the loss was number fourteen on the season, keeping him right on pace for twenty total losses on the season. At least he’s getting his eight million dollars.

The Man is Not a Buscher

Sat, 16 Aug 2008 23:53:30 -0500

The Minnesota Twins rocketed out to an early 5-0 lead Saturday afternoon under the Teflon confines only to find themselves having to come from behind to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat for the 32nd time this season. Brian Buscher's game-winning sac fly with the bases loaded in the 9th gave the Twins a [...]

Fixing Third Base

Tue, 15 Jul 2008 03:44:46 -0500

Andrew Kneeland delves into the possibility of Minnesota trading for the power hitting Adrian Beltre and discusses ways the Twins could drastically improve their third base position.

Best Waiver Wire Fantasy Baseball Picks Ups from around the web - Week 14

Tue, 01 Jul 2008 12:33:15 -0500

Should you give Billy Butler another chance? Check out week 14's most recommended waiver wire pickups from the Hardball Times, Yahoo! Sports, CBS Sports and FFToolbox.com

Buyers or Sellers?

Mon, 30 Jun 2008 14:07:29 -0500

Andrew Kneeland lets you know what Minnesota should do as the Trade Deadline approaches.

AccuScore: Waiver Wire Wonders

Fri, 27 Jun 2008 14:36:26 -0500

If you are in need of pitching, but missed out on early season Waiver Wire Wonders like Justin Duchscherer or Jair Jurrjens, AccuScore fantasy expert Tim Williams has a few options for you, and suggests patience is the key to realizing their long term value on your team.

Break Out the Brooms

Fri, 20 Jun 2008 14:56:00 -0500

Thursday was a day for sweeps as eight different teams broke out the brooms against their foes. The biggest of them all was probably Tampa Bay which continued its franchise-best season by finishing off the Cubs powered by Carl Crawford. There are also some nice fantasy options in obscure places (BAL, SD) if you look hard enough.