http://www.yardbarker.com/content/player/22836 Recent articles about Ime Udoka en-us LAST SEASON The Spurs won 55+ games for an absurd 8th year in a row. They were one of the top defensive teams in the league, but they didn't have enough firepower to get past the Lakers. Fantasy-wise, their slow 88.8 pace factor (28th of 30) and balanced rotation (9 players averaged 17+ minutes but NONE were over 34) continues to limit the values of their players. OFFSEASON MOVES Key Additions: Roger Mason, George Hill, Malik Hairston, James Gist, Anthony Tolliver Key Losses: Brent Barry, Michael Finley?, Robery Horry? San Antonio lost Brent Barry to Houston, but when you consider that Roger Mason is also a very good outside shooter, plus he's 9 years younger and a superior defender, it's a move that makes sense for them. The status of both Finley & Horry is still up in the air, but it wouldn't surprise me if Horry retired and Finley went to Boston. When you throw in all of their new draft picks and consider how few dunks they had in '07-08, the Spurs are clearly trying to get younger. ROTATION / PLAYING TIME It's still a 3-man show in San Antonio. Tim Duncan will play 34 mpg and put up 20 and 10 (or 19 and 11) as usual. Manu Ginobili played a career-high 31.1 mpg in '07-08, and with the departure of Barry (and possibly Finley), that number could rise to 32-34 this season. Year in and year out, Manu is one of the most productive per-minute guys in the NBA, but Popovich likes to keep him fresh. Tony Parker is younger than those guys, so I'm expecting his 33.5 mpg to go up slightly this season. But what about everyone else? Well, if the Spurs continue to give Bruce Bowen 30+ minutes, they DESERVE to get knocked out of the playoffs. The guy's stats are horrible, and at 37 years old, he isn't getting any better. I know, he's in there for his defense and 3-point shooting, right? Well, Ime Udoke (18.1 mpg) is pretty damn good at those things as well, not to mention being a much more versatile player who can actually make free throws (Bowen is a career 57.5% FT shooter). Udoka was signed to replace Bowen in 2010, but I'm predicting it happens this year, so I'll project 24 mpg for both players. At center, Fabricio Oberto (20 mpg) & Kurt Thomas (18.7 mpg w/ S.A.) will once again be one of the most rugged and boring duos in the league (yawn). Roger Mason will get about 20 minutes of run backing up both guard spots, and could have value if someone gets hurt (in 9 starts last year, he averaged 17.4 points 3.4 assists, and a whopping 2.8 threes per game on 52.6% FG shooting). I would also like to see Ian Mahinmi and/ or Matt Bonner get a chance to play more, for purely selfish reasons. I've mentioned Mahinmi as a possible future fantasy star before, and I caused a ruckus (not really) by selecting the "best redhead in the NBA" as the 12th man for my All-White team. And you never know… if Timmy goes down, one of them could have serious fantasy value. DON'T SLEEP ON: Tony Parker It feels weird hyping up Tony Parker, because he's a former Finals MVP whose real-life value is much greater than his fantasy value. But I think most owners are so jaded by his inability to make threes & free throws, that he could fall further than he should this year. In '07-08, his shooting (49.4% FG, 25.8% 3P, 71.5% FT) was much worse than the year before (52.0% FG, 39.5% 3P, 78.3% FT), so those numbers could bounce back nicely in '08-09. Parker also averaged a career-low .80 steals per game last season, so expect that number to rise as well. I'm not saying you should use an early-round pick on him (see below), but he's entering his prime (26 years old) and his numbers can only improve. BE CAREFUL OF: Bruce Bowen I'm not even talking fantasy hoops now. Bruce Bowen is a dirty competitor, so if you're an NBA player reading this, watch out for the guy. As I suggested above, his ass will be riding the pine more often this season, so he'll likely be even more irritated and aggressive than usual. You frail guys like Kevin Martin need to be ESPECIALLY careful. I don't want to use a 2nd Round pick on you expecting a breakout season, only to see you miss some games because Bruce Bowen undercut you. ROUND BY ROUND TARGETS (Where you should draft these guys in an 8-cat Roto league with 12 teams and 14 man rosters) Click on the link to find out! Tue, 05 Aug 2008 08:36:59 -0500 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/301151 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/301151 The Spurs just keep on winning. They might not be stylish, pretty, or popular, but San Antonio just gets it done behind the big man in the middle, Tim Duncan. The Lakers on the other hand are the glamour team of the NBA. They are young, and play an appealing brand of basketball led by Kobe Bryant. Los Angeles wants another ring, but they will have to go through the champions to get it. Who will survive the rugged West? Let's break it down. Tue, 20 May 2008 19:23:58 -0500 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/269149 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/269149 As always, more reports and other goodies are at: http://www.nuggets1.blogspot.com The Nuggets are good enough in terms of talent to beat the San Antonio Spurs and they did so three nights earlier in Denver. But in Texas, the Spurs almost always win and this game was no exception. Tim Duncan and Matt Bonner dominated Kenyon Martin and Marcus Camby, who was playing with a bruised hip, and the Spurs defeated the Nuggets 107-103, despite heroics from Allen Iverson and especially from J.R. Smith. The loss left the Nuggets 2 1/2 games behind the Golden State Warriors for the 8th and final playoff spot in the tough Western Conference. Martin did what he could against Duncan, but Nene is the type of player who has more success against him than the less bulky Martin. Technically, if the Nuggets fail to make the playoffs, it won't really be the full team that missed the playoffs because Nene, a multi-million dollar big man who is big enough to effect the course of a game near the hoop, has been out for essentially the entire season. It is my contention that the Nuggets should make the playoffs regardless of this, but there is little doubt that the Nuggets would have won this game had Nene played in it. J.R. Smith was unbelievable in this game; he was more than twice as productive as usual. Without Smith, the Nuggets would not have been able to hang close with the Spurs as they did. Smith made all the highlight reels. On one play, he squeezed past Duncan along the baseline below the hoop, turned all the way around, and jumped so high over Duncan to make the shot on the other side that Duncan looked useless on the play. And Bruce Bowen started guarding J.R. Smith at one point. One of the ultimate honors you can get in pro basketball, as an offensive player, is if Spurs Coach Greg Popovich orders defensive specialist Bruce Bowen to guard you, because you have to be a major threat to the Spurs for that to happen. Many Nuggets fans who saw the game were convinced that the Nuggets were at least slightly cheated by the refs. Specifically, Nuggets fans could not believe how it was possible that the Nuggets had 22 fouls called against them while the Spurs had only 20. It wasn't just the fans. The Spurs were 22/29 on free throws, while the Nuggets, who in most games get more free throws than their opponent, were 17/23. Carmelo Anthony never even got to the line until 4 ½ minutes left in the game, despite clearly being fouled numerous times earlier. Melo was particularly angry after he was kneed by Duncan and pushed back behind the mid-court line, which resulted in an over and back turnover. Melo's reaction was not very mellow, and he got a very quick technical from a referee. Camby also got a technical in this game, whereas the Spurs, of course, did not get any technicals. There were definitely some instances when the Spurs fouled a Nuggets player but there was no call, and there were definitely some instances when the Nuggets were called for a foul that was questionable at best. For example, in the 3rd quarter, Martin got almost all ball on Parker going to the hoop, and it should have been a jump ball, but it was a foul on Martin. J.R. Smith was clearly fouled while going straight through the paint with just under 3 minutes to go and that wasn't called. With 1:45 left, Parker pushed Iverson to the floor and there was no call. At about that time also, Parker was camped out in the lane for more than 4 seconds and there was no 3-second violation call. These are some of the instances, but there were other instances of calls and non-calls going in favor of the Spurs. I guess the referees were not in the mood to favorably consider the plight of what looks to end up as one of the best teams in the history of sports that failed to make the playoffs. Maybe they figure there must be something really rotten at the core about such a team, which would be ironic since George Karl is one of the few coaches in basketball who thinks that the personalities and characters of players are large factors in determining the fate of a team. Maybe George Karl should have been a referee instead of a coach, since he seems to think more like a referee might think than like other coaches think. The Nuggets fought tooth and nail and led for much of the game. After falling 7 behind midway through the 2nd quarter, they battled back later in the period, mostly with dunks and layups, but also with two long threes by Iverson just before the half time horn. The Nuggets led the Spurs at the half 58-55. In the 3rd quarter, the Nuggets led by as many as seven, but the Spurs went on a 16-5 run to close the quarter and take an 84-80 lead. They started executing flawlessly, while the Nuggets could not keep up despite the best efforts of Iverson and Smith. The Spurs took the lead with 1:37 left in the 3rd with a long 3 by PF Matt Bonner. The Spurs scored on their last 6 possessions to win the game. These were mostly easy shots earned by the Spurs following their usual tactics. Meanwhile, the Nuggets' late in the game shots were mostly difficult shots that were well defended. The Spurs' execution down the stretch was outstanding, while the Nuggets' execution varied from occasional brilliance to total ineptness. I have been discussing the point guard mess and the need for what I call an offensive identity over the last several game reports. You need to have an offensive identity so that you can be consistent on offense, so that you give yourself the best chance to win tough games. You need to have either one dominant, playmaking PG and someone who backs him up, or you need to have two playmakers who more or less share the job. If your playmakers are not established, and they change from game to game, and there are games where the playmaking is spread through most of the team, you will most of the time end up with fewer overall assists than you need, and you will score less than you should because players who should be worried mostly about scoring will be worried too much about assisting. Sure enough, this was another game in which the Nuggets' point guard situation was still a hopeless mess, and their offensive identity was nothing more than wishful thinking that they have one. Let's look at the Spurs to see how an offense is supposed to work. SG Manu Ginobili is such a quick and fluid a mover on the court, and he is such an intelligent player, that he gets more assists than does PG Tony Parker. So the Spurs do not have the perfect set-up, which is where your starting PG gets more assists than anyone else on the team. But they have the next best set-up, and the difference between the two is not that serious a thing. The Spurs do follow the most important thing, which is what I call the minimum requirements to have an offensive identity. I use to call them guidelines, but from now on I am calling them requirements, because the more I think about this, the more I realize that this is critical as to whether an NBA team can win games it is supposed to win or not. There are two rules. The first rule is that the team must average, at an absolute minimum, the NBA average number of assists per game, adjusted for pace. I have calculated that the Nuggets, the fastest pace team in the League, should be averaging at least 25 assists per game. They are averaging 1 ½ fewer assists per game than that, so they have failed the first requirement. But the Nuggets are close to meeting the first requirement, so they could have a decent offense if they met the second requirement. But they don't. The Nuggets are extremely inconsistent with their assists, so they violate the second requirement too often. The second requirement is that, in every game, your top two assisting guards should make at least half and no more than 2/3 of all the assists. If the assists are more spread out than this, too many players are looking for assists rather than getting in position and executing pick and rolls and so forth for scores. Consider the Nuggets' center, Marcus Camby, as an example. He is averaging about 3 assists per game, which makes Camby look generous, but it is terrible for the Nuggets. Camby is averaging only 9 points per game, down 2 from last year and down almost 4 from 2005-06. Fans have been known to complain about Camby acting like a point guard, but the problem is deeper than just Camby. All Nuggets players are subject to acting too much like a point guard from time to time, because of the failure of the team to have 2 established playmakers who make the plays almost every game. Now if you look at the seasonal averages, you would never know there is a problem, because Iverson and Carter clearly are the dominant playmakers judged by that. The problem does not occur in every game. If it did, the Nuggets would be heading for a 20-62 record or so. There are games where Carter and Iverson get 2/3 of all the assists. The problem appears mostly in games against the better teams. The better the team that the Nuggets are playing and especially the better the defense that the Nuggets are playing, the more likely the playmaking will break down and the Nuggets offense will become far less productive than usual. If Iverson decides he has to ramp up his scoring to try to beat a great team like the Spurs, but at the same time he refuses to leave the playmaking mostly to Carter, then Carter becomes of little value, and the Nuggets can win only if Iverson is able to play both guard positions well simultaneously most of the time he is out there. Since Iverson is not a machine so far as we know, he is not going to be able to do that near-impossible task on a regular basis, especially since we are talking about playing the better defenses.. So this game was a perfect example of what I have been talking about. The Nuggets finished with only 18 assists, grossly short of the needed 25. There were three Nuggets who made 4 assists each, Iverson, Anthony, and Camby. Not only did the Nuggets fail the second requirement, because the top two assisters made only 8 assists instead of 9-12, but the starting point guard, Carter, made a grand total of 1 assist in almost 20 minutes, and was not one of the top two assisters. Anthony and Camby were both wasted to some extent by making these assists instead of being able to execute plays where they score the ball. So we have identified a critical reason why the Nuggets are having so much trouble making the playoffs this year, and why they have had so much trouble under Karl winning playoff games. There is only one known solution to this, but for Karl it would be sacrilege. Karl would have to defy one of the "glorious traditions of basketball," which is that Iverson plays the 2-guard position and is "not a point guard". Atkins would come off the bench in relief of Iverson, and so could Carter. When either one of them came in, Iverson could move over to the 2-guard. The important thing would be to limit the amount of time that Iverson and either Carter or Atkins are on the court at the same time. The Nuggets are losing out when Iverson and either Carter or Atkins are playing at the same time, it's that simple. But Karl is never going to have enough courage to admit that Iverson should be declared to be the PG because, for one thing, he would have to defy one of his best friends, Larry Brown, to do that. Larry Brown has always thought that a PG should never be a major scorer, and he was desperate for heavy guard scoring in Philadelphia, so he insisted that AI play SG. In Brown's mind, it was the only possible solution to meeting the scoring objective without violating the PG rule. One big reason why the Pistons under Brown won it all in 2003-04 was that the Billups-Hamilton back court was perfect for Brown's limitations and rules. Billups was a PG who was not at all obsessed with scoring, and Hamilton was an excellent SG who had little interest in encroaching on the PG role. So those two guards made it possible for Brown's views to work very well. Brown never had a 2-guard the caliber of Hamilton in Philadelphia, which is a partial but by no means a complete excuse for Brown's failure to make any adjustments to Iverson's role as the years went by after the 76'ers loss to the Lakers in the finals. Karl would never do anything to go against his idol Brown. That would be sacrilege, so that is why the Nuggets are stuck with this problem to this day. If Karl officially realized that AI has been running the point, there would be all kinds of stories in the media about how Karl was trying to improve on what Brown did, and Karl could not tolerate or deal with that. It should be noted, in all fairness, that Brown and Karl are not the only two coaches in the world who worry about a PG being a huge scorer. But as Byron Scott is showing with his Hornets, it is definitely possible to have a successful offense where your PG is a huge scorer. If we had a coach who was not tied at the hip to Larry Brown, we would probably have A.I. as the starting PG by now. At the start of the 2007-08 season, basketball's best minds penciled in the Nuggets' starting five as Iverson/Smith/Anthony/Martin/Camby. Early this season, many of the sports sites were showing Iverson as the starting PG for the Nuggets, because they thought that was the only reasonable possibility once Atkins was not available. But the basketball experts at ESPN, CBS Sportsline, and so forth did not understand that Karl can never do anything that would in any way challenge his idol Brown. With every game the door starts to close a little more on the Nugget's playoff hopes. Now the Nuggets need to win the next 3 straight games, which are all home games, because they have been struggling on the road this year, unlike last year, and because they have fallen 2 ½ games behind the last playoff spot with only 19 games left. The Nuggets are more talented than the Mavericks, the Warriors, the Hornets, and the Rockets, but they are inferior in basketball knowledge, and they employ fewer strategies and tactics than any of those teams. It's as if the Nuggets are doing a scientific experiment to see if athletic skills and talent are enough to offset knowledge, strategies, and tactics. It's looking more and more like the answer is no, they are not enough. The Nuggets only hope now may be to want to win so badly that they employ an even greater percentage of their abilities than they would otherwise. To tap most of your raw abilities you need to get really pumped up. Maybe, as the season draws to a close, the Nuggets will rebel against going down in history as one of the all-time chump teams. Maybe they will join J.R. Smith in the quest for the ring. PROJECTIONS Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, of the Nuggets making the playoffs: 40% Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, that the Nuggets and their suffering fans will be stuck with George Karl for next season: 60% The current odds of the Nuggets making the playoffs, according to Hollinger at ESPN's excellent team analysis system, are 51%. However, and I know this is a little confusing, the Nuggets are projected to most likely be the 9th seed in the Western Conference, meaning that they will not make the playoffs because only 8 teams qualify in each Conference. It seems right now that the Suns, the Warriors, and the Nuggets will be battling it out for the last 2 playoff spots in the West. All three of them are considered likely to make the playoffs, in statistical terms, but not all three are going to make it. Nuggets 1 agrees with Hollinger's system, which is saying that the Suns and the Warriors are favored in this race. The Suns' victory over the Spurs on Sunday March 9 gave them a boost over the Warriors and the Nuggets. The Hollinger odds don't take into account that, most likely, Nene is not going to be available in top form for the Nuggets for the stretch run. Also, there may not be enough time for Atkins to get back to good condition. It's still unknown whether Atkins can help to rescue the Nuggets from not making the playoffs. If the Hollinger system adjusted for the Atkins and the Nene situations, it would show a lower percentage chance than 53% for the Nuggets to make the playoffs. The Lakers, the Rockets, the Spurs, the Jazz, and the Hornets are currently considered locks to make the playoffs, and the Mavericks are currently considered near locks to make the playoffs. However, the Rockets are no longer really total locks, due to the loss of Yao Ming for the season. But I think they are still near locks. The Suns are in trouble, due to their terrible trade, which was Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks for Shaquille O'Neal, but they are in less trouble after their win at home over the Spurs on March 9. PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN Lakers 58-24 Rockets 56-26 Spurs 55-27 Jazz 54-28 Hornets 53-29 Mavericks 52-30 Suns 51-31 Warriors 51-31 NON-PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN Nuggets 48-34 Trailblazers 42-40 The Rockets have lost their best player, and one of the best players in the NBA, Yao Ming, for the rest of the season. Therefore, they will probably drop substantially below their current projection, since the projections do not take injuries into account. The Suns will probably drop a little more also, because they made a bad trade when they gave up "The Matrix," Shawn Marion. At this time, however, Nuggets 1 does not believe that either the Rockets or the Suns will fail to win at least 50 games, so they will most likely finish ahead of the Nuggets despite their difficulties. The Warriors are now 3 games ahead of the Nuggets for the last spot. The schedules of the two teams are roughly equal difficulty from here on out. If the Nuggets make up the three games, so that the Warriors and the Nuggets finish with identical records, and the season series between them ends up tied 2-2, the Warriors are likely to get the playoff spot rather than the Nuggets, because it is likely that the Warriors will finish at least 1 game ahead of the Nuggets in Conference record, which would be the tie-breaker if the Warriors and the Nuggets split their 4 head to head games. Now that the Nuggets are 2 games behind the Warriors, the two remaining Nuggets-Warriors games are more important than ever. If the Warriors win both games, the Nuggets are definitely out of the playoffs. If each team wins one game, the Warriors remain more likely to make the playoffs than the Nuggets. If the Nuggets win both games, then the Nuggets are about even with the Warriors in the race. The Nuggets-Warriors games are on Saturday, March 29 in Denver and on Thursday, April 10 in Oakland. Neither the Warriors nor the Nuggets will be playing on back to back nights in either of those games. WARRIORS REMAINING SCHEDULE, All times, EDT Wed, Mar 12 Toronto 10:30 PM Thu, Mar 13 @ Phoenix 10:30 PM Sat, Mar 15 Memphis 10:30 PM Tue, Mar 18 @ Sacramento 10:00 PM Wed, Mar 19 @ LA Clippers 10:30 PM Fri, Mar 21 Houston 10:30 PM Sun, Mar 23 @ LA Lakers 9:30 PM Mon, Mar 24 LA Lakers 10:30 PM Thu, Mar 27 Portland 10:30 PM Sat, Mar 29 @ Denver 9:00 PM Sun, Mar 30 Dallas 9:00 PM Tue, Apr 1 @ San Antonio 8:30 PM Wed, Apr 2 @ Dallas 9:30 PM Fri, Apr 4 @ Memphis 8:00 PM Sun, Apr 6 @ New Orleans 7:00 PM Tue, Apr 8 Sacramento 10:30 PM Thu, Apr 10 Denver 8:00 PM Sat, Apr 12 LA Clippers 10:30 PM Mon, Apr 14 @ Phoenix 10:00 PM Wed, Apr 16 Seattle 10:30 PM NUGGETS REMAINING SCHEDULE, All times EDT Wed, Mar 12 Memphis 9:00 PM Fri, Mar 14 Toronto 9:00 PM Sun, Mar 16 Seattle 9:00 PM Tue, Mar 18 @ Detroit 7:30 PM Wed, Mar 19 @ Philadelphia 7:00 PM Fri, Mar 21 @ New Jersey 7:30 PM Sun, Mar 23 @ Toronto 3:30 PM Mon, Mar 24 @ Memphis 8:00 PM Thu, Mar 27 Dallas 10:30 PM Sat, Mar 29 Golden State 9:00 PM Mon, Mar 31 @ Phoenix 10:00 PM Tue, Apr 1 Phoenix 9:00 PM Sat, Apr 5 Sacramento 9:00 PM Sun, Apr 6 @ Seattle 9:00 PM Tue, Apr 8 @ LA Clippers 10:30 PM Thu, Apr 10 @ Golden State 8:00 PM Sat, Apr 12 @ Utah 9:00 PM Sun, Apr 13 Houston 9:00 PM Wed, Apr 16 Memphis 9:00 PM So overall, Nuggets 1 agrees with the Hollinger system; as of now, we think the Nuggets will fail to make the playoffs. But it will probably be a very close call, and it still could go either way. We think that the Warriors will finish with either 49 or 50 wins. The Nuggets would need to finish 13-6 to reach 50 wins. This is realistically the minimum they must do to have a decent chance of making the playoffs. 12-7 will probably not be good enough, and 11-8 will definitely not be good enough. To be almost guaranteed a playoff spot, the Nuggets must go 14-5. If you win a division you get into the playoffs regardless of how poor your record is. For the Nuggets, winning the Northwest Division is very unlikely at this point; the odds on that are at 4%. The odds that Utah will win the Northwest are 96% right now. The Nuggets would have to beat the Jazz in their remaining game against them, and they would also have to hope that the Jazz stumble down the stretch. NUGGETS INJURY REPORT FOR PLAYERS WHO PLAYED IN THIS GAME Allen Iverson: suffered a non-displaced fracture on the end of his right ring finger vs. San Antonio on 3/7. X-rays were negative, and he remains probable for the Grizzlies game on March 12. Marcus Camby: suffered a right hip contusion at San Antonio on March 10, and he is probable for the Grizzlies game on March 12. PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE NUGGETS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE Nene: He underwent successful surgery to remove a testicular tumor on Jan. 14. A timeline for his return is still unknown. He has now missed 29 straight games. He is out until at least the middle of March, but could easily be out for the entire rest of the season. Nene has now missed 27 straight games this season. CBS Sportsline says Nene is most likely out for the rest of the season. SPURS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE All players on the roster were available. ALERT STATUS PROBLEMS As of March 11, 2008 The Nuggets are under a YELLOW ALERT, on account of the following problems. NUGGETS INJURIES, ILLNESSES, SUSPENSIONS, AND PERSONAL LEAVES 1. Nene illness 14 points SEVERE AND UNEXPECTED CRUCIAL PLAYER SLUMPS Chucky Atkins, 14 points BAD OR INADEQUATE COACHING 1. George Karl has completely benched one or more players who should not be benched due to his incorrect calculation of the benefits and costs of that player, his hatred of the player, and/or his having the ulterior motive of forcing the player off the team. The problem points would be the points you would have if the player were injured. No one is currently completely benched who should not be: 0 points. 2. One or more players are partially benched; their minutes are being artificially limited due to abstract and subjective factors that the Denver coaches believe are more important than performance on the court. J.R. Smith was partially benched: 0 points. Smith was not partially benched. 3. George Karl over relies on his starters and won't play the non-starters enough: 0-12 Points. The severity varies depending on the circumstances, mainly Karl's beliefs and moods, and whether the other team is playing well enough to take advantage of the Nuggets playing with not enough breathers, with too many fouls, and so forth. The current points reported are for the use, or should I say the misuse, of the reserves for the most recent games, with the most weight being given to the game being reported on here. The bad use of reserves score for this game is 0 points. The rotations were reasonable. 4. The Nuggets have extreme offensive inconsistency and an excessive number of turnovers because they have neither a system nor even a good partial system on offense. They over rely on fast pace and on isolation plays, especially isolation plays by Anthony and Iverson. The damage caused by this would be up to 20 points, except that Iverson's intelligence in recognizing different situations in different games, and responding appropriately, reduces the damage. At one time earlier this season, Iverson and Carter were marginalizing Anthony to some extent. That problem went away when Anthony ramped up his rebounding. However, another problem has developed due to a combination of the unstructured offense and the Karl lineup, and it is not going to go away anytime soon. That would be the double point guard problem. The Nuggets don't know in advance who is going to be the effective point guard in the game: Iverson, Carter, or both Iverson and Carter roughly equally. And in any case, it is foolish to have two point guards in the game for more than a small number of minutes. In any event, the Nuggets lack enough tried and tested offensive plays that they can run game after game, perfecting them as they go, and having everyone automatically on the same page for those plays. On defense a system is much less important than on offense. How good your defense is is determined much more by effort and skill than by strategy. On defense, the main strategic decision is whether you are playing zone or man to man defense. The choice varies during each game, and usually depends on a gut feeling of the coach and/or the defensive floor leader, as to which is better at a particular point in the game, and with a particular opposing lineup on the court. At least as important as whether a zone or a man to man defense is in effect is the quality of the actual defending. Lack of an adequate number of offensive plays and patterns: 14 Points INTENSITY, HUSTLE, AND HEART 1. The Nugget's intensity, hustle and heart are lacking: 0 Points. It's not anywhere near as bad as some fans think it is. TOTAL PROBLEM POINTS: 42, which constitutes YELLOW ALERT. YELLOW ALERT (40-54): Minor damage is occurring to the season. The entire season is under medium threat. Beating quality teams is more difficult and will be relatively unusual. About 1/2 of all would be wins against good teams will now be losses. Beating mid-level teams is a little more difficult. About 1/4 of games that would be wins against mid-level teams will now be losses. Beating low level teams is still relatively easy. A good team has become in between a good team and a mid-level team when it is under this alert. IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT ALERT STATUS All teams, of course, have an alert status, and the key thing that can swing games is not so much the actual status of the two teams, but the difference in the two statuses. The difference in the alert status is a third outside factor that impacts a game, joining home court advantage and extra rest advantage, if any. IMPACT OF OUTSIDE FACTORS, INCLUDING ALERT STATUS, ON THIS GAME The alert status system is still relatively new, but a preliminary estimate of what the point differential will be for each 1 level difference in the alert status has been made, and that estimate is 3-5 points. The Home court advantage has also been estimated to be 3-5 points, and we use 4 points for it. The extra rest advantage is very uncertain, and would differ a little from team to team, but it must be at least as much as the home court advantage. For now, until we can study it more, we will use 4 points for the extra rest advantage. In this game, the Nuggets had the extra rest advantage, and the Spurs had the home court advantage, and those two offset each other. The Spurs had no injuries, and were in either GREY or GREEN alert. So they had a 1-2 level advantage over the Nuggets, which translates roughly into a 6-10 point advantage. So the Spurs had a total net advantage of 6-10 points from outside factors. Since the Nuggets lost by only 4 points, they definitely played well enough to beat the Spurs, and would most likely have won the game were it not for the factors detailed in the alert status report feature. George Karl has been doing better with the rotations lately, which has prevented the alert status from being even worse. Atkins, in his third outing since coming back, did poorly again, so his alert points were increased. The Nuggets have been unable to issue any prediction about when or whether Nene is going to return to the court. There was a rumor recently that he was going to return by mid-March, but there is no sign that that will become a reality yet. CBS Sportsline is saying that, most likely, Nene will not return to the court at all this season, including for the playoffs. If Nene in fact never returns, and Atkins continues to be a lost cause, and Karl goes back to making his usual mistakes, and if Carter starts to reassert himself at point guard, the Nuggets will range between YELLOW and ORANGE alert status for the rest of the season, and that right there may cost the Nuggets a playoff spot. And don't expect George Karl to pull a few offensive set plays out of a hat any time soon. The mid January losses to the Bobcats and the Hawks, and the close calls at home against the Wolves and the Hawks in January, in games that should have and probably would have been relatively easy wins had the alert status been green, grey, or even yellow, illustrate the usefulness and accuracy of the alert system. When you reach ORANGE ALERT and especially RED ALERT, you start losing a substantial number of games that you would normally win. It's that simple, and there is little anyone can do about it. RESERVE WATCH Number of Players Who Played at Least 6 Minutes: Nuggets 9 Spurs 10 Number of Players Who Played at Least 10 Minutes: Nuggets 9 Spurs 8 Nuggets Non-Starters Points: 28 Spurs Non-Starters Points: 31 Nuggets Non-Starters Rebounds: 13 Spurs Non-Starters Rebounds: 12 Nuggets Non-Starters Assists: 5 Spurs Non-Starters Assists: 4 THE NON-STARTERS IN THIS GAME It is very unusual for Karl to play 9 players for 10 or more minutes. Right now he is forced to, because pushing J.R. Smith below 10 minutes is out of the question the way he is playing, and there is a huge mess at PG which requires Karl to play 2 official point guards for much more than 10 minutes each. Anthony Carter took over the PG position for the bulk of the season when Chucky Atkins went out for 2 months with hernia surgery. Atkins was poor in limited games before he went out. Carter has been better than expected, but apparently Karl agrees with most fans that Atkins will be eaten alive if the Nuggets make the playoffs and so Atkins, who has far more experience, including playoff experience, may be the Nuggets' only hope at the position in the playoffs, and in the stretch run to make the playoffs, for that matter. So Karl has to give Atkins playing time in a last chance desperate bid to get Atkins up to speed. But since Atkins is poor so far, Atkins minutes have to be limited, and so Carter has to play a lot of minutes also. J.R. Smith scored 22 points, allowing the Nuggets to hang tight with the Spurs non-starters in scoring, 28-31. In a similar way, Linas Kleiza was a good rebounder, which allowed the Nuggets' non-starters to out rebound the Spurs' non-starters 13-12. It's unusual for the Nuggets' non-starters to out assist the non-starters of the other team, but in this game they did, 5-4. I hope to develop the reserve watch feature further in the future, because I want to try to expand what I already have in terms of a game coaching evaluation system. But the complications involved explain why there are no formal statistics anywhere on the internet on the subject of how much non-starters contribute to different teams, and also why coaches are not compared statistically the way players are. There are a lot of variables that come into the use of reserves that interfere with the objective of judging their use. Statisticians call this "statistical noise," and if you have a substantial amount of it, then what you are trying to do with your statistics becomes very difficult or next to impossible. GEORGE KARL CONFIDENCE IN HIS TEAM RATING (Scale of 0 to 10) 3: He's hiding under his seat on the sidelines PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED You can tell how well every player played at a glance. Of the advanced statistics I have seen on the internet, this one seems to have the best balance between offense and defense. While some are biased in favor of offensive players, such as the efficiency measure at the NBA site, many other advanced statistics are biased in favor of good defenders, and do not reflect the heavy importance of offense in basketball. Here is the formula for the ESPN rating of a player, which I think is a very good balance between offense and defense: Points + Rebounds + 1.4*Assists + Steals + 1.4*Blocks - .7*Turnovers + # of Field Goals Made +1/2*# of 3-pointers Made - .8*# of Missed Field Goals - .8*# of Missed Free Throws + .25 *# of Free Throws Made All players on each team who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The number after "game," is how well the player did in this game, whereas the number after "season" is that player's overall average for the entire season. NUGGETS-SPURS PLAYER RATINGS NUGGETS PLAYER RATINGS Allen Iverson: Game 41.5 Season 41.4 J.R. Smith: Game 34.5 Season 16.4 Carmelo Anthony: Game 32.1 Season 39.1 Kenyon Martin: Game 22.4 Season 22.1 Marcus Camby: Game 18.5 Season 32.3 Anthony Carter: Game 14.6 Season 20.3 Eduardo Najera: Game 9.7 Season 13.3 Linas Kleiza: Game 8.0 Season 18.1 Chucky Atkins: Game 1.6 Season 5.7 Nene: Did Not Play-Illness Yakhouba Diawara: Did Not Play-Coach's Decision Taurean Green: Did Not Play-Coach's Decision Steven Hunter: Did Not Play-Coach's Decision SPURS PLAYER RATINGS Tim Duncan: Game 52.9 Season 38.9 Manu Ginobili: Game 36.1 Season 34.2 Tony Parker: Game 22.8 Season 29.5 Bruce Bowen: Game 17.7 Season 11.2 Kurt Thomas: Game 16.9 Season 19.2 Matt Bonner: Game 14.5 Season 10.1 Michael Finley: Game 12.4 Season 15.4 Ime Udoka: Game 10.6 Season 10.3 Fabricio Oberto: Game 8.6 Season 13.2 Damon Stoudamire: Game 5.1 Season 11.9 NOTE 1: these stats do not correct for the big differences in playing times. Players with small minutes would get a higher rating if they had more minutes. NOTE 2: This performance measure does NOT include the quality and quantity of each player's defending, including the number of shots that the player prevented from going in the basket. The best Nuggets defenders, which are the ones who consistently make the extra effort and have the defensive talent to make that effort pay off, are Camby, Martin, Najera, and Diawara. OBSERVATIONS ON THE PLAYER RATINGS: J.R. Smith was more than twice as productive as his average, but where he led none of the other Nuggets followed. No other Nugget was above average at all, let alone much above average. In fact, there were only two Nuggets who made their averages against the tough Spurs defense, Iverson and Martin, who have been there, done that. Anthony was 1/5 off his average, mainly because he didn't get the ball much in the last third of this game. Carter was 1/4 off his average, mainly because he is getting confused about what he should be doing out there in the wake of Iverson's gradual taking over of running the point. Najera was about 30% off his average, mainly because he didn't get the rebounds he gets against many other teams, and because he, like Anthony, did not get the ball as much on offense as usual. Camby is in a major slump, since the first of March, and he was only 60% as productive as usual. Kleiza is also in a slump, for about 2 1/2 weeks long now, and he was less than half as productive as usual. For the Spurs, PF Tim Duncan was huge; he was about 1/3 more productive than usual, which is hard to do when you do as much as Duncan does on a regular basis. Joining him on the major plus side were SF Bowen and PF Bonner. SG Ginobili made his average as did SF Udoka, though at less than 1/3 of Ginobili's high level. C Thomas and SG Finley were both just a very little short of their averages. C Oberto was about 1/3 off his average, but he only played 8 minutes, compared to his average playing time of 20 minutes, so in real terms he played extremely well. Similarly, PG Stoudamire was a little more than 1/2 off his average productivity, but he only played 6 minutes compared to his average playing time of 20 minutes, so he actually played very well in real terms. So there was really only 1 Spur who was substantially below his average, and even he was not way below. It was PG Parker, but he was not poor enough in this game to truly endanger the Spurs winning it, and he was no where near as poor as we was in the 3 days earlier Spurs-Nuggets game in Denver. REAL PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED The Real Player Rating reflects reality better than the gross player rating, since it washes out differences in playing times among the players. The straight up player rankings are obviously heavily affected by how many playing minutes the various players get. With many teams, you can rely on the coach to give his various players roughly the playing time that makes the most sense for his team. Unfortunately, some coaches bring other factors besides actual performance into their rotation decisions. Therefore, it makes good sense to introduce a new and extremely important statistic that Nuggets 1 calls the Real per Minute Player Rating. As the name implies, this is the gross ESPN player rating divided by the number of minutes. The statistic is called Real Player Rating for short. This statistic allows anyone to see whether or not players who play only a small number of minutes are doing better than their low gross rating will indicate. You can spot diamond in the rough players who are not getting all the respect and playing time due to them. At the same time, it will allow anyone to see whether players with a lot of minutes are playing worse than, as well as, or better than their gross rating shows. In summary, the Real Player Rating allows the reader, at a glance, to see exactly how well each player is doing without regard to playing time, which is subject to coaching error and subjective and less important factors such as a player's personality. The Real Player Rating provides the real truth-pure knowledge not available anywhere else. SCALE FOR THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS 1.80 More Amazing Happens, but only certain players can ever fly this high <a name="OLE_LINK1">1.60 1.80 Superstar Plus-Above </a>Normal Even For Michael Jordan 1.40 1.60 Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game 1.20 1.40 Star Plus-Spectacular Performance 1.05 1.20 Star Performance 0.90 1.05 Outstanding Game 0.80 0.90 Very Good Game 0.70 0.80 Good Game 0.60 0.70 Mediocre Game 0.50 0.60 Poor Game 0.40 0.50 Very Poor Game 0.25 0.40 Extremely Poor-Near Disaster Less 0.25 Total Disaster NUGGETS-SPURS REAL PLAYER RATINGS All players who played 5 minutes or more are included. Any player who played only 5-9 minutes is noted. 1. Tim Duncan, SA 1.356 2. J.R. Smith, Den 1.190 3. Manu Ginobili, SA 1.128 4. Fabricio Oberto, SA 1.075…Oberto played only 8 minutes. 5. Matt Bonner, SA 0.967 6. Allen Iverson, Den 0.965 7. Damon Stoudamire, SA 0.850…Stoudamire played only 6 minutes. 8. Carmelo Anthony, Den 0.803 9. Anthony Carter, Den 0.768 10. Ime Udoka, SA 0.757 11. Kenyon Martin, Den 0.723 12. Kurt Thomas, SA 0.704 13. Michael Finley, SA 0.653 14. Marcus Camby, Den 0.638 15. Tony Parker, SA 0.585 16. Linas Kleiza, Den 0.533 17. Bruce Bowen, SA 0.432 18. Eduardo Najera, Den 0.422 19. Chucky Atkins, Den 0.133 OBSERVATIONS ON THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS The best player on the court was Tim Duncan of the Spurs, and he was a star-plus. There were 3 stars: J.R. Smith for the Nuggets, and Manu Ginobili and Fabricio Oberto for the Nuggets. But Oberto played for only 8 minutes. Not counting Oberto, the Spurs had 1 star-plus and one star, while the Nuggets had just one star. Iverson for the Nuggets and Bonner for the Spurs were outstanding. Anthony for the Nuggets and Stoudamire in limited minutes for the Spurs were very good. Udoka and Thomas for the Spurs and Carter and Martin for the Nuggets were plain good. Camby for the Nuggets and Finley for the Spurs were only mediocre, and when Camby is only mediocre the Nuggets are in deep trouble Kleiza for the Nuggets and Parker for the Spurs were poor. Bowen for the Spurs and Najera for the Nuggets were very poor, not counting their made you miss type shot defending. Atkins for the Nuggets was a total disaster in his third game back from his long injury out. He was also a disaster in his first game back, but played much better in his second game, which was the Jazz game. NUGGET'S PLUSâ€"MINUS This tells you how the score changed while a player was on the court. All Nuggets who played at least 10 minutes are shown. Linas Kleiza: +10 Chucky Atkins: +9 Eduardo Najera: +0 J.R. Smith: -2 Anthony Carter: -2 Carmelo Anthony: -7 Marcus Camby: -8 Kenyon Martin: -10 Allen Iverson: -10 OBSERVATIONS ON PLUSâ€"MINUS If anyone thinks that the Nugget's non-starters are useless, consider these results. The 4 non-starters finished ahead of the 5 starters, except that Carter was tied with Smith. Although there is no performance measure for made you miss type defending yet, the plus-minus will often give you some clues as to who defended very well. This is a good example of that. Kleiza was extremely quiet offensively, but he had a strong plus-minus, which suggests but does not prove that he was a very good defender in this game. In the case of Najera, who is usually a good defender in games, his plus-minus is usually better than his real player rating would suggest. Smith was huge in this game, but even he couldn't quite get into positive territory against the grind them out and shut them down Spurs. All of the Nuggets' starters except for Carter were beaten decisively by the Spurs. NUGGETS MADE WHAT? All Nuggets who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The order is from lowest to highest in real player rating. Turnovers: NBA Average: 14, Nuggets' Total 16, Team 1, Anthony 2, Atkins 0, Camby 2, Carter 2, Iverson 2, Kleiza 0, Martin 1, Najera 2, Smith 4 Personal Fouls: NBA Average: 21, Nuggets' Total 22, Anthony 3, Atkins 1, Camby 2, Carter 1, Iverson 2, Kleiza 1, Martin 5, Najera 3, Smith 4 Chucky Atkins played 12 minutes and was 0/1 and 0/1 on 3's for 0 points, and he made 1 assist and 1 steal. Eduardo Najera played 23 minutes and was 1/3, 0/2 on 3's, and 2/2 from the line for 4 points, and he made 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 block, and 1 steal. Linas Kleiza played 15 minutes and was 1/4 for 2 points, and he made 5 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 steal. Marcus Camby played 29 minutes and was 1/5 and 1/2 from the line for 3 points, and he made 14 rebounds and 4 assists. Kenyon Martin played 31 minutes and was 7/15 and 2/5 from the line for 16 points, and he made 5 rebounds, 2 steals, and 1 block. Anthony Carter played 19 minutes and was 4/7 and 2/2 on 3's for 10 points, and he made 2 rebounds and 1 assist. Carmelo Anthony played most of the game, 40 minutes, and was 8/15, 0/1 on 3's, and 2/2 from the line for 18 points, and he made 7 rebounds and 4 assists. Allen Iverson played most of the game, 43 minutes, and was 9/22, 3/6 on 3's, and 7/7 from the line for 28 points, and he made 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal, and 1 block. J.R. Smith played 29 minutes and was 9/13, 1/4 on 3's, and 3/5 from the line for 22 points, and he made 6 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, and 1 block. As always, more reports and other goodies are at: http://www.nuggets1.blogspot.com Wed, 12 Mar 2008 21:00:39 -0500 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/194539 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/194539 As always, more reports and other goodies are at: http://www.nuggets1.blogspot.com Few people know that the Spurs and the Nuggets are almost exactly equal in talent. Even fewer know that the Nuggets, if you adjust for their fast pace, are not vastly inferior to the Spurs on defense. The reason the Spurs almost always win, to put it bluntly, is that they are a lot smarter than the Nuggets. So two of the NBA's most talented teams, and two of the NBA's best defensive teams, the Nuggets and Spurs, played in front of a national TV audience and in front of an unusually raucous thank God it's Friday crowd at the Pepsi Center in Denver. In this clash of titans, Spurs Coach Greg Popovich tried every strategy, called every play, put every player in the game, called every timeout, yelled at every player, and cussed at every official that he could think of. But nothing could stop the extremely fired up Nuggets, who were aided substantially by their crowd for a change, from coming out in the 2nd half and taking no prisoners. Although Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili were rock solid as usual, the third piece of the Spurs' three-headed monster, PG Tony Parker, was almost a disaster, and nothing Popovich did could get the Spurs out of the huge hole that was created by Parker's poor game. Eduardo Najera defended well, rotated well, screened well, scrambled for loose balls, hustled from all over the place for rebounds, made 8/10 shots for 19 points in 25 minutes, worked extremely hard for 2 steals, worked smart for 2 assists, and played his game of the year and one of his all time greatest games as a Nugget, as the Denver Nuggets maintained their fighting chance to get one of the last two playoff spots in the West by defeating the San Antonio Spurs in Denver 109-96. The Nuggets are most likely battling for the last playoff spot, unless the Suns collapse even worse than expected following their loss of Shawn Marion via a bad trade. However, before anyone gets carried away, and starts to think that the Nuggets made a statement, you must know that the Spurs were playing on back to back nights, so the Nuggets had both the home court and the extra rest advantages, and they were fired up even by thank God it's Friday standards. It is relatively rare for the road team to win when it is playing on back to back nights, and the home team is not. In one of the highlights of the whole season, Najera raced in from the right corner to grab an offensive rebound from the left side of the rim and pumped it way out to J.R. Smith, who swished a sweet long three. You almost never see that kind of play against the Spurs. As for Smith, he doesn't even have to be on or near the line to make threes these days. On another Smith long 3 that was swished, the ESPN announcer remarked that the extremely high trajectory of the ball might have disturbed some pigeons in the rafters of the arena. Both Najera and Smith were especially impulsive in this game. But George Karl thinks impulsiveness is a bad thing in basketball. He thinks that a player should always think for a second before he does anything. But players who have legendary status, such as Allen Iverson, are almost always given the benefit of the doubt by Karl regarding their thinking and decisions in games. Other Coaches want to help direct the thoughts of their players while games are going on. In other words, they want to do some of the thinking for their players. But Karl perceives his role as limited to trying to get his players to think better in general, so that they can be better thinkers and decision makers during games. This sounds reasonable at first, and it sounds so normal, because that is what the objective of education is, to get students to be better thinkers. Unfortunately, basketball is not the same as life in general. Karl will sometimes tell a player what he thinks he should do, but he won't tell a player how to decide when or what he should do in different situations. For example, he will tell Melo to go the rim more, but he won't tell him when he should instead go to the rim and when he should kick it out to J.R. Smith or Linas Kleiza on the perimeter. What Karl will not tell his players is very important in a basketball game, because most players can see only the trees, the other players, and can not see the forest, which is how the game as a whole is going and how it might be won. With Karl, the thinking burden is almost all on the player. This helps explain why Karl does not feel the need to call offensive plays, either specifically or generally, in preparation for or during games. Karl thinks the players are supposed to think of offensive plays as they go. Or more precisely, players are supposed to be able to think of the right thing to try at any given time. And Karl holds all of his players responsible for their game decisions and reserves the right to criticize those decisions, even directly to the media, whereas most other Coaches in effect take some of the responsibility for decisions made by players in games, and almost never criticize a player's decision making in public. The approach of those other coaches has a more successful record than Karl's approach in the NBA, particularly in hard fought playoff games. (Coach, I hate to tell you, but even A.I. doesn't always think about what he is going to do next, even for 1 second. He'll never tell, so I just revealed his little secret.) Najera and Smith were key performers in this game precisely because they played impulsively, with instinct, without having to waste a second thinking. Players who have abilities and who have trained to make those abilities ready to rock and roll should be chock loaded with confidence, and a huge amount of confidence naturally leads to impulsive decisions. Unlike life in general, sports rewards those who make decisions extremely quickly, including in no time at all. In short, impulsiveness is not a bad thing in Sports, unless the player does not have the abilities and the training to allow impulsive decisions to pay off. But if that is the case, the player would not be a pro NBA player in the first place, would he? The fact that Karl will never understand this is a true shame. It was Iverson playing both guard positions for most of the night. PG Anthony Carter did little in this game and PG Chucky Atkins did almost nothing. To say that Iverson was masterful while running things would be an understatement; he made 9 assists and only 2 turnovers while scoring 29 points on 10/16 shooting and 10/11 from the line. For those who think Iverson can't play point guard: if you don't think that's good enough for a point guard, then you have your requirements set way to high, my friend. For those who think J.R. Smith is not a good enough 2-guard, please read some recent game reports, especially the last one for the Suns game, and see if you still think that way. We have been discussing and proving the folly of having PG Anthony Carter and PG-SG Allen Iverson out on the floor at the same time in recent reports. In this game, it was obvious that Iverson was playing both guard positions for much of the time he was out there, and he was out there for virtually the whole game. Only when J.R. Smith was in the game did Iverson wisely step back a little and mostly limit himself to running the point. The reason for this is that The Answer has become a true believer in Smith's ability to contribute huge scoring for the Nuggets. On the other hand, Iverson is more and more proceeding almost as if Carter is not even there. Carter did very little in this game as a result of Iverson's decisions, exactly as we predicted. Carter had his minutes limited to 19 minutes, down from his season average of 30. Was this because George Karl has finally understood this problem and is starting to address it? No, of course not. Carter's reduced minutes were due almost entirely to the need to insert PG Chucky Atkins into a game for the first time in about two months. However, there was a 3 minute stretch, in the middle of the 2nd quarter, when the Nuggets had only 1 point guard out there. Iverson was getting a rare breather, Carter was also out, and Chucky Atkins was the only PG out there at that time. Of course, Atkins did nothing to speak of during that time, but we have been begging for a one point guard offense, and we got it for 3 minutes, and we should be grateful just for that. Now maybe if we wait about 10 years, Karl will finally have realized that Iverson should be the point guard instead of Atkins or Carter. Chucky Atkins, who was brought on to the team from the Grizzlies to be the starting PG for the Nuggets, played for the first time since early January after having missed 26 straight games due to a hernia. Nuggets 1 has recently gone all out to point out the folly of having both Carter and Iverson, both very small guards, in the game at the same time, since Iverson is gradually taking over more and more of the point guard duties. Nuggets 1 has pointed out that it is borderline madness to have Carter and Iverson on the floor at the same time for more than about half a quarter, since Carter is close to worthless once Iverson has decided to go into the point guard mode. The Spurs apparently didn't get the memo about how Iverson is gradually taking over running the point for the Nuggets, so that he is essentially playing both guard positions at once, even while PG Carter is out there with him, so that there is a bigger payoff than ever if you double team A.I. They instead decided to double team Melo, and they did that well of course, but only in the 1st half. Bruce Bowen especially frustrated the heck out of Melo in the 1st half. Double teaming Melo is so old fashioned, Spurs! Come on, get with the times and double Iverson a lot more next time if the Nuggets have Iverson-Carter or Iverson-Atkins in the back court at the same time! Granted, Melo can still do a lot of damage, but Iverson is the guy from which almost every Nuggets play comes from these days. George Karl urged Melo to take it to the rim more in the second half to get out of the rut Bowen and company had put him in, and that was exactly the right thing to do. If they are doubling and being physical to take away the midrange jumper, go to the spin moves, the stutter stepping, the pick and rolls, the kick outs. Don't think you can still make ordinary midrange jumpers when the Spurs are draped all over you like a wet rag. Take it to the rim one way or another. So Melo and the Nuggets did this in the 3rd quarter, and the Spurs were then crushed in that quarter, which eliminated any chance they could win this game. Almost by accident, the way to beat the Spurs was discovered by the Nuggets. Abandon the midrange jumper, and replace it with dunks, layups, offensive rebounds, free throws, and kick outs to the perimeter for threes. The Nuggets outscored the Spurs in the paint 42-30, and they got a nice 20 points off fast breaks versus 14 fast break points for the Spurs. At the same time, the Nuggets, who are not a good three-point shooting team by any stretch, nevertheless made an amazing 7/14 threes in this game. J.R. Smith was 3/5 and Iverson was 2/3 to lead the Nuggets. Turnovers were about even, but the Nuggets prevailed in offensive rebounding 5-3 and in defensive rebounding 34-28. Camby made 13 rebounds, Anthony made 8 rebounds, Najera made 6 rebounds, and Martin made 5 rebounds. Overall, the Nuggets were an astounding 40/74 or 54.1% from the field, while the Spurs were a not quite as astounding 37/75 or 49.3%. Coach Popovich, realizing that the Spurs' cause was lost in what is always a long shot situation, trying to win on the road while playing on back to back nights, while the home team is rested, pulled Duncan, Ginobili, Parker, and Bowen half way through the 4th quarter, with the Nuggets leading 96-81 and more fired up than anyone can remember them being this season. This was not a mistake as the ESPN announcer said it might be. Popovich recognizes a lost cause when he sees one. When you look at this game closely, you can see that the truth is that the Nuggets became a rough, blue collar version of the Spurs for a night. They had to, because the Spurs always insist that you play their way if you want to beat them. The Nuggets changed their stripes, in other words, and were able to defeat the Spurs while playing at the Spurs' slow pace, and while relying heavily on defense. The shock on Duncan and Parker's faces late in the 4th after they had been pulled from the game was priceless. They were shocked that Popovich had tried almost everything in the Spurs' book, and nothing worked well against the Nuggets on this night. They were even more shocked that the Nuggets had a surface resemblance to themselves. How could this be? they asked themselves. How could a team that knows so little about how to win basketball games have overcome every trick that Popovich and the Spurs threw at them? I'll tell you the reasons. First, it was because not all games are won by those who know more about how to win. Some games are won by hard work, talent, and impulsiveness alone. Second, The Answer has finally figured out that the answer for the Nuggets is for him to make sure that the crucial point guard position is run by someone who has enough talent to do it well, and that would be himself. Allen Iverson has crossed another river in the quest for the ring. PROJECTIONS Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, of the Nuggets making the playoffs: 50% Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, that the Nuggets and their suffering fans will be stuck with George Karl for next season: 65% The current odds of the Nuggets making the playoffs, according to Hollinger at ESPN's excellent team analysis system, are 67%. However, and I know this is confusing, the Nuggets are projected to most likely be the 9th seed in the Western Conference, meaning that they will not make the playoffs. It seems right now that the Suns, the Warriors, and the Nuggets will be battling it out for the last 2 playoff spots in the West. All three of them are considered likely to make the playoffs, in statistical terms, but not all three are going to make it. Nuggets 1 agrees with Hollinger's system, which is saying that the Suns and the Warriors are favored in that race, although the Warriors-Nuggets race is razor tight. The Hollinger odds don't take into account that, most likely, neither Nene nor Atkins is going to be available in top form for the Nuggets for the stretch run. Atkins was a disaster in his first time back in the Spurs game. If the Hollinger odds adjusted for injuries, it would show a lower percentage chance than 67% for the Nuggets to make the playoffs. The Lakers, the Rockets, the Spurs, the Jazz, and the Hornets are currently considered locks to make the playoffs, and the Mavericks are currently considered near locks to make the playoffs. However, the Rockets are no longer really total locks, due to the loss of Yao Ming for the season. But they are still near locks. The Suns are in trouble, due to their terrible trade, which was Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks for Shaquille O'Neal. PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN 1. Lakers 59-23 2. Spurs 56-26 3. Rockets 55-27 4. Jazz 54-28 5. Hornets 53-29 6. Mavericks 51-31 7. Suns 51-31 8. Warriors 50-32 NON-PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN 9. Nuggets 49-33 10. Trailblazers 42-40 The Rockets have just lost their best player, and one of the best players in the NBA, Yao Ming, for the rest of the season. Therefore, they will probably drop substantially below their current projection, since the projections do not take injuries into account. The Suns will probably drop a little more also, because they made a bad trade when they gave up "The Matrix," Shawn Marion. At this time, however, Nuggets 1 does not believe that either the Rockets or the Suns will fail to win at least 50 games, so they will most likely finish ahead of the Nuggets despite their difficulties. As for the Warriors, they have an easier schedule than the Nuggets the rest of the way, so Nuggets 1 agrees with Hollinger's system, and thinks that the Warriors will finish very slightly ahead of the Nuggets. If the Warriors and the Nuggets finish with identical records, and the season series between them ends up tied 2-2, the Warriors are likely to get the playoff spot rather than the Nuggets, because it is likely that the Warriors will finish at least 1 game ahead of the Nuggets in Conference record, which would be the tie-breaker if the Warriors and the Nuggets split their 4 head to head games. If either the Nuggets or the Warriors win both of the remaining two head to head games that the teams play, then that winner will earn a big advantage toward securing the final playoff spot. The Nuggets-Warriors games are on Saturday, March 29 in Denver and on Thursday, April 10 in Oakland. Neither the Warriors nor the Nuggets will be playing on back to back nights in either of those games. So overall, Nuggets 1 agrees with the Hollinger system; as of now, we think the Nuggets will fail to make the playoffs. But it will be an extremely close call, and it could go either way. One extra win by the Nuggets could easily be all that is needed for them to make the playoffs. Specifically, if the Nuggets can go 13-8 in their last 22 games, and finish 50-32, that is likely to be good enough for at least the 8th seed. All bets are off if the Nuggets are 12-9 in their last 22 games. If the Nuggets are 11-10 or worse, it is very unlikely that they will make the playoffs. If you win a division you get into the playoffs regardless of how poor your record is. For the Nuggets, winning the Northwest Division is very unlikely at this point; the odds on that are at 12%. The odds that Utah will win the Northwest are 88% right now. The Nuggets would most likely have to beat the Jazz in both of their remaining games against them, both of which are in Salt Lake City, and one of which is this Saturday night, in order to have a shot at winning the Northwest. PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE NUGGETS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE / INJURY REPORT Chucky Atkins: returned to the lineup vs. San Antonio on 3/7 after missing the previous 26 games due to a surgically repaired right groin/abdominal strain (Sports Hernia). He is considered probable for tonight's game against the Jazz. Nene: underwent successful surgery to remove a testicular tumor on Jan. 14. A timeline for his return is still unknown. He is out until at least the middle of March, but could easily be out for the entire rest of the season. Nene has now missed 27 straight games this season. CBS Sportsline says Nene is likely to be out for the rest of the season. Carmelo Anthony: suffered a left knee contusion in this game, but is probable for the Jazz game tonight. Allen Iverson: suffered a sprained right ring finger in this game. X-Rays were negative and he is probable for tonight's game. CBS Sportsline has Iverson as questionable. Steven Hunter: A death in the family made him unavailable for last night's Spurs game, and also for Saturday night's Jazz game. SPURS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE None, all Spurs on the roster were available. ALERT STATUS PROBLEMS As of March 8, 2008 The Nuggets are under a GREY ALERT, on account of the following problems. INJURIES, ILLNESSES, SUSPENSIONS, AND LEAVES 1. Nene illness 14 points 2. Steven Hunter 4 points SEVERE AND UNEXPECTED CRUCIAL PLAYER SLUMPS Chucky Atkins, 13 points BAD OR INADEQUATE COACHING 1. George Karl has completely benched one or more players who should not be benched due to his incorrect calculation of the benefits and costs of that player, his hatred of the player, and/or his having the ulterior motive of forcing the player off the team. The problem points would be the points you would have if the player were injured. No one is currently completely benched who should not be: 0 points. 2. One or more players are partially benched; their minutes are being artificially limited due to abstract and subjective factors that the Denver coaches believe are more important than performance on the court. J.R. Smith was partially benched: 0 points. Smith was not partially benched. 3. George Karl over relies on his starters and won't play the non-starters enough: 0-12 Points. The severity varies depending on the circumstances, mainly Karl's beliefs and moods, and whether the other team is playing well enough to take advantage of the Nuggets playing with not enough breathers, with too many fouls, and so forth. The current points reported are for the use, or should I say the misuse, of the reserves for the most recent games, with the most weight being given to the game being reported on here. The bad use of reserves score for this game is 0 points. Najera and Smith were huge from off the bench, and they both received their minimum reasonable minutes. Kleiza's minutes have been cut, but that makes sense because Kleiza is in a slump. Wow, Karl did a great job in this game on the player rotations! 4. The Nuggets have extreme offensive inconsistency and an excessive number of turnovers because they have neither a system nor even a good partial system on offense. They over rely on fast pace and on isolation plays, especially isolation plays by Anthony and Iverson. The damage caused by this would be up to 20 points, except that Iverson's intelligence in recognizing different situations and responding appropriately, in particular games, reduces the damage. At one time earlier this season, Iverson and Carter were marginalizing Anthony to some extent. That problem went away when Anthony ramped up his rebounding. However, another problem has developed due to a combination of the unstructured offense and the Karl lineup, and it is not going to go away anytime soon. That would be the double point guard problem. The Nuggets don't know in advance who is going to be the effective point guard in the game: Iverson, Carter, or both Iverson and Carter roughly equally. And in any case, it is foolish to have two point guards in the game for more than a small number of minutes. In any event, the Nuggets lack enough tried and tested offensive plays that they can run game after game, perfecting them as they go, and having everyone automatically on the same page for those plays. On defense a system is much less important than on offense. How good your defense is is determined much more by effort and skill than by strategy. On defense, the main strategic decision is whether you are playing zone or man to man defense. The choice varies during each game, and usually depends on a gut feeling of the coach and/or the defensive floor leader, as to which is better at a particular point in the game, and with a particular opposing lineup on the court. At least as important as whether a zone or a man to man defense is in effect is the quality of the actual defending. Lack of an adequate number of offensive plays and patterns: 6 Points INTENSITY, HUSTLE, AND HEART 1. The Nugget's intensity, hustle and heart are lacking: 0 Points. It's not anywhere near as bad as some fans think it is. TOTAL PROBLEM POINTS: 37, which constitutes GREY ALERT. GREY ALERT (30-39): There are relatively minor problems leading to a small threat against the success of the entire season. It is still possible to beat quality teams, but it will be a little more unusual to beat a quality team, because about 1/4 of what would have been wins against good teams will now be losses when there is a GREY ALERT. OBSERVATIONS ON THE ALERT STATUS George Karl has gotten the rotations within reason, for a change, and Iverson has taken over running the point more than ever so, all of the sudden, the Nuggets alert status has improved substantially. The Nuggets would be all the way up to GREEN alert, except that Chucky Atkins is showing nothing so far in his return from a long injury out. So Nuggets 1 listed him in the "severe and unexpected crucial player slump" section. The points will be reduced as Atkins gets better. The Nuggets have been unable to issue any prediction about when or whether Nene is going to return to the court. There was a rumor recently that he was going to return by mid-March, but there is no sign that that will become a reality yet. CBS Sportsline is saying that, most likely, Nene will not return to the court at all this season, including for the playoffs. If Nene in fact never returns, and Atkins continues to be a lost cause, and Karl goes back to making his usual mistakes, and if Carter starts to reassert himself at point guard, the Nuggets will return to YELLOW alert. In any event, George Karl is definitely not going to pull a few offensive set plays out of a hat any time soon. The mid January losses to the Bobcats and the Hawks, and the close calls at home against the Wolves and the Hawks in January, in games that should have and probably would have been relatively easy wins had the alert status been green, grey, or even yellow, illustrate the usefulness and accuracy of the alert system. When you reach ORANGE ALERT and especially RED ALERT, you start losing a substantial number of games that you would normally win. It's that simple, and there is little anyone can do about it. RESERVE WATCH Number of Players Who Played at Least 6 Minutes: Nuggets 9 Spurs 12 Number of Players Who Played at Least 10 Minutes: Nuggets 8 Spurs 9 Nuggets Non-Starters Points: 34 Spurs Non-Starters Points: 28 Nuggets Non-Starters Rebounds: 10 Spurs Non-Starters Rebounds: 8 Nuggets Non-Starters Assists: 8 Spurs Non-Starters Assists: 8 THE RESERVES IN THIS GAME Coach Greg Popovich of the Spurs is one of the most intelligent basketball coaches in the NBA today, and he is one of only a few coaches who can manage a 9 or 9-plus player rotation in a game. In this game, Popovich played 9 players for 10 or more minutes, and 3 other players for 6, 9, and 9 minutes. Although Popovich pulled his stars half way through the 4th quarter, with the Nuggets leading 96-81, he through everything including the kitchen sink into the effort to win this back to back road game prior to that point. Of those 3 players who played less than 10 minutes, only 1 of them was limited to what Popovich decided was garbage time, Matt Bonner for 6 minutes. The other two, Jacque Vaughn and Fabricio Oberto, played much earlier in the game, for 9 minutes each. So Popovich came extremely close to playing 11 players for 10 or more minutes in non-garbage time basketball, an astounding feat that probably no other coach, even Phil Jackson, would be able to manage well. So the longstanding dispute about who is the smartest coach in basketball, Jackson or Popovich, may have been decided last night, at least pending fresh evidence, in favor of Popovich. Since J.R. Smith and especially Eduardo Najera were on fire, the Nuggets' non-starters were able to get relatively unusual wins over the opponent's non-starters in both points and rebounds. Nugget's non-starters generally don't get many assists at all, but in this game, they got 8, and tied the Spurs' non-starters, who generally do get a good number of assists in most games. Having the Nuggets' non-starters get a lot of assists counts as one of those "I thought I'd never see" that moments. I hope to develop the reserve watch feature further in the future, because I want to try to expand what I already have in terms of a game coaching evaluation system. But the complications involved explain why there are no formal statistics anywhere on the internet on the subject of how much non-starters contribute to different teams, and also why coaches are not compared statistically the way players are. There are a lot of variables that come into the use of reserves that interfere with the objective of judging their use. Statisticians call this "statistical noise," and if you have a substantial amount of it, then what you are trying to do with your statistics becomes very difficult or next to impossible. GEORGE KARL CONFIDENCE IN HIS TEAM RATING (Scale of 0 to 10) 3: He's hiding under his seat on the sidelines PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED You can tell how well every player played at a glance. Of the advanced statistics I have seen on the internet, this one seems to have the best balance between offense and defense. While some are biased in favor of offensive players, such as the efficiency measure at the NBA site, many other advanced statistics are biased in favor of good defenders, and do not reflect the heavy importance of offense in basketball. Here is the formula for the ESPN rating of a player, which I think is a very good balance between offense and defense: Points + Rebounds + 1.4*Assists + Steals + 1.4*Blocks - .7*Turnovers + # of Field Goals Made +1/2*# of 3-pointers Made - .8*# of Missed Field Goals - .8*# of Missed Free Throws + .25 *# of Free Throws Made All players on each team who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The number after "game," is how well the player did in this game, whereas the number after "season" is that player's overall average for the entire season. NUGGETS-SPURS PLAYER RATINGS NUGGETS PLAYER RATINGS Allen Iverson: Game 47.8 Season 41.5 Eduardo Najera: Game 36.5 Season 13.5 Carmelo Anthony: Game 34.9 Season 39.4 J.R. Smith: Game 24.0 Season 15.9 Marcus Camby: Game 18.6 Season 32.8 Kenyon Martin: Game 12.7 Season 22.4 Anthony Carter: Game 9.3 Season 20.8 Linas Kleiza: Game 7.8 Season 18.2 Chucky Atkins: Game -0.8 Season 5.4 Nene: Did Not Play-Illness Steven Hunter: Did Not Play-Personal Leave Yakhouba Diawara: Did Not Play-Coach's Decision Taurean Green: Did Not Play-Coach's Decision SPURS PLAYER RATINGS Tim Duncan: Game 44.1 Season 38.9 Manu Ginobili: Game 38.9 Season 34.3 Bruce Bowen: Game 22.1 Season 11.0 Kurt Thomas: Game 16.0 Season 19.2 Ime Udoka: Game 10.6 Season 10.2 Robert Horry: Game 9.9 Season 6.4 Tony Parker: Game 9.9 Season 29.6 Damon Stoudamire: Game 8.8 Season 13.3 Matt Bonner: Game 8.7 Season 9.9 Michael Finley: Game 6.1 Season 15.7 Fabricio Oberto: Game 2.2 Season 13.3 Jacque Vaughn : Game -2.3 Season 8.3 NOTE 1: these stats do not correct for the big differences in playing times. Players with small minutes would get a higher rating if they had more minutes. NOTE 2: This performance measure does NOT include the quality and quantity of each player's defending, including the number of shots that the player prevented from going in the basket. The best Nuggets defenders are Camby, Martin, and Najera. OBSERVATIONS ON THE PLAYER RATINGS: It was the game of the year for Najera, who was almost 3 times as productive as usual, not even counting his quality defending. Iverson was Iverson plus in this game. The Spurs, despite their obsession with stopping Anthony, despite all of their double teaming and off the ball roughing up of Melo, were able to knock off only 10% from his usual performance level. That right there was pretty much game, set, and match. The Spurs very rarely get such a small return on their player shutdown efforts. J.R. Smith continued his Amazing 2008 Tour from Fantasyland, by having yet anotherbig game; he was half again as much better than usual. One of the most amazing things about this game was that, while Najera was huge, 3 of the 4 other front court players were not. Camby and Martin were only slightly more than half as productive as usual, and Kleiza was a little less than half as productive as usual. Seeing Najera far more productive than all but one of the other forwards (all except for Melo) is something that you will rarely, if ever, see again. PF Duncan and SG Ginobili did about as well as you could expect in a back to back game on the road. SF Bowen was more offensive minded than usual, to go along with his stop Melo efforts, in 25 minutes, and he scored almost double his usual points, so he was twice as productive as usual. Among the huge list of role players that Popovich played in this game, PF Horry was really the only one who stepped up to any extent. SF Udoka and PF Bonner were average. C Thomas started at center over C Oberto, but he was 1/5 off his normal and was a key reason why the Spurs lost. Oberto didn't do much of anything. PG Stoudamire played fewer minutes than usual, which explains why he was only a little more than half as productive as usual. SG Finley doesn't have that excuse; he was less than half as productive as usual, so he was a substantial disappointment for the Spurs in this game. PG Vaughn did nothing in 9 minutes. Despite the long list of disappointments for the Spurs, there was one player who was by far the biggest disappointment of all for them: PG Tony Parker. Just as the Nuggets have three major stars: Iverson, Anthony, and Camby, the Spurs have three mega stars: Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker. But Parker was hardly a mega star in this game. In 29 minutes he was 2/7 for 4 points; he never got to the line once. He made his assist average, 6 assists, but he turned it over 5 times, about twice as much as usual, and he made only 1 steal and 2 rebounds. It could have been even worse, but Parker was only 1/3 as productive as he usually is. Parker created a deficit that, despite Popovich's massive effort, the Spurs were unable to offset. REAL PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED The Real Player Rating reflects reality better than the gross player rating, since it washes out differences in playing times among the players. The straight up player rankings are obviously heavily affected by how many playing minutes the various players get. With many teams, you can rely on the coach to give his various players roughly the playing time that makes the most sense for his team. Unfortunately, some coaches bring other factors besides actual performance into their rotation decisions. Therefore, it makes good sense to introduce a new and extremely important statistic that Nuggets 1 calls the Real per Minute Player Rating. As the name implies, this is the gross ESPN player rating divided by the number of minutes. The statistic is called Real Player Rating for short. This statistic allows anyone to see whether or not players who play only a small number of minutes are doing better than their low gross rating will indicate. You can spot diamond in the rough players who are not getting all the respect and playing time due to them. At the same time, it will allow anyone to see whether players with a lot of minutes are playing worse than, as well as, or better than their gross rating shows. In summary, the Real Player Rating allows the reader, at a glance, to see exactly how well each player is doing without regard to playing time, which is subject to coaching error and subjective and less important factors such as a player's personality. The Real Player Rating provides the real truth-pure knowledge not available anywhere else. SCALE FOR THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS 1.80 More Amazing Happens, but only certain players can ever fly this high 1.60 1.80 Superstar Plus-Above Normal Even For Michael Jordan 1.40 1.60 Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game 1.20 1.40 Star Plus-Spectacular Performance 1.05 1.20 Star Performance 0.90 1.05 Outstanding Game 0.80 0.90 Very Good Game 0.70 0.80 Good Game 0.60 0.70 Mediocre Game 0.50 0.60 Poor Game 0.40 0.50 Very Poor Game 0.25 0.40 Extremely Poor-Near Disaster Less 0.25 Total Disaster NUGGETS-SPURS REAL PLAYER RATINGS All players who played 5 minutes or more are included. Any player who played only 5-9 minutes is noted. 1. Eduardo Najera, Den 1.460 2. Matt Bonner, SA 1.450…Bonner played for only 6 minutes. 3. Manu Ginobili, SA 1.389 4. Tim Duncan, SA 1.336 5. Allen Iverson, Den 1.086 6. J.R. Smith, Den 0.923 7. Carmelo Anthony, Den 0.895 8. Bruce Bowen, SA 0.884 9. Kurt Thomas, SA 0.667 10. Robert Horry, SA 0.660 11. Damon Stoudamire, SA 0.629 12. Marcus Camby, Den 0.600 13. Linas Kleiza, Den 0.557 14. Anthony Carter, Den 0.489 15. Ime Udoka, SA 0.408 16. Kenyon Martin, Den 0.385 17. Tony Parker, SA 0.341 18. Michael Finley, SA 0.265 19. Fabricio Oberto, SA 0.244…Oberto played for only 9 minutes. 20. Chucky Atkins, Den -0.114…Atkins played for only 7 minutes. 21. Jacque Vaughn, SA -0.256…Vaughn played for only 9 minutes. OBSERVATIONS ON THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS Eduardo Najera was the best player on the court and was a superstar in this game. Matt Bonner for the Spurs was also a superstar, but only for very limited minutes. The Spurs had 2 players who were star-plus, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili. Allen Iverson was a plain old star. Among the 4 players who were stars or better and who played at least 10 minutes, each team had 2. J.R. Smith was outstanding for the Nuggets. Anthony for the Nuggets and Bowen for the Spurs were very good. Thomas, Horry, and Stoudamire were all just mediocre for the Spurs, which was a big disappointment for them. Camby was mediocre for the Nuggets. For the Nuggets, Kleiza was poor, Carter was very poor, and Martin, not counting his defending, was extremely poor. Martin fouled out late in the game, turned it over 3 times, and failed to get any assists or blocks. On the other hand, he was 4/6 for 8 points and he made 5 rebounds, so it could have been worse. Let's face it, the Nuggets have no plays planned out in advance to get Martin the ball where he wants it on the court. The Spurs also had 3 players who were huge disappointments. Udoka was very poor, and both Parker and Finley were extremely poor, with Finley just about a disaster. NUGGET'S PLUSâ€"MINUS This tells you how the score changed while a player was on the court. All Nuggets who played at least 10 minutes are shown. J.R. Smith: +16 Eduardo Najera: +15 Marcus Camby: +10 Linas Kleiza: +10 Allen Iverson: +9 Carmelo Anthony: +6 Kenyon Martin: +0 Anthony Carter: -7 OBSERVATIONS ON PLUSâ€"MINUS The two stars from off the bench, Smith and Najera, were the most damaging players as far as the Spurs were concerned. Martin and especially Carter were the weakest Nuggets in terms of how the game changed when they were out on the court. NUGGETS MADE WHAT? All Nuggets who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The order is from lowest to highest in real player rating. Turnovers: NBA Average: 14, Nuggets' Total 15, Team 0, Anthony 3, Atkins 0, Camby 2, Carter 1, Iverson 2, Kleiza 0, Martin 3, Najera 1, Smith 3 Personal Fouls: NBA Average: 21, Nuggets' Total 20, Anthony 3, Atkins 0, Camby 1, Carter 1, Iverson 1, Kleiza 1, Martin 6, Najera 4, Smith 3 Chucky Atkins played 7 minutes and was 0/1 and 0/1 on 3's for 0 points. Kenyon Martin played 33 minutes and was 4/6, 0/1 on 3's, and 0/2 from the line for 8 points, and he made 5 rebounds and 1 steal. Anthony Carter played 19 minutes and was 1/2, 1/2 on 3's, and 2/2 from the line for 5 points, and he made 2 assists and 1 rebound. Linas Kleiza played 14 minutes and was 0/1 for 0 points, and he made 4 assists and 3 rebounds. Marcus Camby played 31 minutes and was 4/11 and 0/1 from the line for 8 points, and he made 13 rebounds and 1 assist. Carmelo Anthony played 39 minutes and was 7/17, 0/1 on 3's, and 11/16 from the line for 25 points, and he made 8 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 steals. J.R. Smith played 26 minutes and was 6/10 and 3/5 on 3's for 15 points, and he made 3 steals, 2 assists, and 1 rebound. Allen Iverson played for virtually the whole game, 44 minutes, and was 10/16, 2/3 on 3's, and 7/10 from the line for 29 points, and he made 9 assists and 2 rebounds. Eduardo Najera played 25 minutes and was 8/10, 1/1 on 3's, and 2/2 from the line for 19 points, and he made 6 rebounds, 2 steals, and 2 assists. As always, more reports and other goodies are at: http://www.nuggets1.blogspot.com Sat, 08 Mar 2008 22:24:23 -0500 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/186475 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/186475 In our weekly Desperation Station column released every Sunday night, we take a look at the top stopgap fantasy basketball options in an effort to get you ready for the week ahead. Sun, 03 Feb 2008 23:45:46 -0500 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/122864 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/122864 It's time to see how the Nuggets stack up against the boogeyman, the San Antonio Spurs. ABOUT THE REAL PLAYER RATING 1 The real player rating is calculated for the top 300 players ranked according to gross player rating. 2 A player must have at least 8 minutes per game to be included. 3 A player must have played in at least 1/4 of the number of games that the player or players who have played in the most games have played to be included. 4 Real Player Rating = Gross Player Rating / Minutes Per Game. 5 Gross Player Rating is the net total of the following: ADD THE FOLLOWING Points Rebounds 1.4 X Assists Steals 1.4 X Blocks # of Field Goals Made 0.5 X # of 3-Pointers Made 0.25 X # of Free Throws Made SUBTRACT THE FOLLOWING 0.7 X Turnovers 0.8 X # of Missed Field Goals 0.8 X # of Missed Free Throws The Real Player Rating reflects reality better than the gross player rating, since it washes out differences in playing times among the players. The straight up player rankings are obviously heavily affected by how many playing minutes the various players get. With many teams, you can rely on the coach to give his various players roughly the playing time that makes the most sense for his team. Unfortunately, some coaches bring other factors besides actual performance into their rotation decisions. Therefore, it makes good sense to introduce a new and extremely important statistic that Nuggets 1 calls the Real Per Minute Player Rating. As the name implies, this is the gross ESPN player rating divided by the number of minutes. The statistic is called Real Player Rating for short. This statistic allows anyone to see whether or not players who play only a small number of minutes are doing better than their low gross rating will indicate. You can spot diamond in the rough players who are not getting all the respect and playing time due to them. At the same time, it will allow anyone to see whether players with a lot of minutes are playing worse than, as well as, or better than their gross rating shows. In summary, the Real Player Rating allows the reader, at a glance, to see exactly how well each player is doing without regard to playing time, which is subject to coaching error and subjective and less important factors such as a player's personality. The Real Player Rating provides the real truth-pure knowledge not available anywhere else. Rank, Player, Team, Pos., Real Player Rating DENVER NUGGETS 13 Carmelo Anthony, Den SF 1.024 19 Allen Iverson, Den G 1.002 29 Marcus Camby, Den C 0.948 101 J.R. Smith, Den SG 0.776 112 Kenyon Martin, Den PF 0.764 116 Linas Kleiza, Den GF 0.759 146 Anthony Carter, Den PG 0.708 225 Eduardo Najera, Den F 0.606 SAN ANTONIO SPURS 8 Tim Duncan, SA FC 1.116 10 Manu Ginobili, SA SG 1.090 22 Tony Parker, SA PG 0.994 125 Brent Barry, SA G 0.740 133 Fabricio Oberto, SA C 0.727 151 Matt Bonner, SA FC 0.705 219 Ime Udoka, SA SF 0.616 234 Michael Finley, SA GF 0.595 248 Francisco Elson, SA FC 0.573 270 Jacque Vaughn, SA PG 0.527 289 Bruce Bowen, SA SF 0.412 Now if you compare the 8 Nuggets who are among the 290 NBA players good enough to be ranked to the BEST 8 Spurs, by taking the averages of the player ratings, this is what you get: Nuggets: 0.823 Spurs: 0.823 The two teams best 8 players are exactly equal as of December 28, 2007. But that's it for the Nuggets. The Spurs have three more players who are ready right now to play in the playoffs and the Nuggets technically have none. On the bright side, both Nene and Chucky Atkins are back from long injury outs and, as long as these two get back into gear, the Nuggets will have 9, only 1 fewer than the Spurs. However, if George Karl goes ballistic again and benches anyone for the playoffs, then the Spurs would enjoy the 10-8 advantage in players ready to bring home another series win for San Antonio, as if they need one. In any event, no matter how many good players Karl has on paper, he usually can only figure out a way to use 8 of them effectively in games anyway, and sometimes only 7. Coach Greg Popovich of the Spurs almost always makes use of 9 players in individual games, and sometimes even 10. The other caution to keep in mind is that neither this nor any other statistic measures the intensity and quality of defending, and everyone knows that the Spurs have some of the best defenders in the NBA, whereas the Nuggets are just a little above average in made you miss defending at best. The full NBA real player rankings are at the link. They were posted earlier on December 28, 2007. Sat, 29 Dec 2007 02:20:25 -0500 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/54993 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/54993 It was the night of the underdog. Knicks beat the Jazz, T'Wolves beat the Hornets, Wizards beat the Magic, and the Warriors beat the Suns. But this game, former Spur Beno Udrih headlined a great win facing his former team for the first time. They shouldn't have traded him just yet. I started following the game after halftime. It was 52-48 with the Kings leading and the Spurs were riding on a 10-0 run through the break. Everybody knows that the Spurs will make a run on you, no matter how many points they're down by. That explains why they have 4 championships. Kevin Martin who was quiet in the first half scored 8 points in the 3rd quarter, but he only finished with 10 points. While his scoring avearge drops to 24, his rebound average goes up to 5. He needs to learn to balance both. Mikki Moore was hot throughout the game. He had 13 points on 6/6 shooting, finished with 17 points on 8/9 shooting, and had 4 rebounds and 2 blocked shots. Kings' rookie center Spencer Hawes showcased his skill against Tim Duncan with 7 points and 3 rebounds.But the 3rd quarter wasn't over yet as Spurs rookie Darius Washington sparked the Spurs run into the 4th quarter with a long buzzer beating 3 pointer to end the quarter. All of a sudden the Spurs bench started to contribute. Michael Finley who started but rode the bench scoreless, had 9 points, all 3 pointers in the 4th quarter. Manu Ginobili came off with the same point total, along with game high of 7 assists. Brent Barry, Matt Bonner and Ime Udoka all contributors off the bench. Tony Parker, whose wife Eva Longoria attended the game, had 12 points 7 assists and 7 rebounds. Eva is one of the loudest Spurs fans you will hear. She's temporarily on vacation with the writers' strike going on right now in Hollywood, so why not travel with your husband? Anyway, the Spurs were coming back like they usually do to win the game, jumping on the Kings missed opportunities early in the 4th quarter, but that would all change. Beno Udrih would lead the Kings to the victory scoring a career high 27 points, 4 rebounds, a steal and a blocked shot. This occasionally offensive-minded point guard may not be one of the best in the NBA, but on a good night, he'll play like one. Center Brad Miller, who has the game of a power forward, played like a point guard getting 17 points, 10 rebounds, a game high 7 assists and 2 blocked shots. One assist went behind the back for a John Salmons lay-up. The 4th quarter highlight reel kept on rolling with Ron Artest, scoring 20 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals and a block. One impressive move was when the shot clock was going down to 2 and the whole crowd told Artest to shoot, and his short turnaround jumper beat the buzzer to help put the game out of reach. Another highlight was his assist to Moore where he drove in passed it behind his back and Moore caught it, jumped in the air, and slammed over Tim Duncan. Duncan struggled through the night getting a team high 15 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists and a block. No one should take this victory for granted because this is by far the best win they've had, and it might be the best win that they'll have of the season. The Kings played against the 2007 champions in the middle of a Spurs 5 game winning streak looking to beat the Kings for the 8th time in a row. Instead, they got their first win against the Spurs since Game 4 of the 2005 playoffs. Kings' rookie coach Reggie Theus gets props for this one, organizing the Kings into a very effective zone defensive to stop one of the best teams in the league. Slowly but surely, he's growing to be a good NBA coach. The Kings are now 5-2 at home and have established Arco as still one of the toughest places to play on the road. Both losses were withing 2 points. But the Kings are 0-7 on the road, but if they can learn from this game and bring that intensity on the road, they might make a run at some teams. They've won games against lthe Sonics, T'Wolves, Knicks, and Pistons by 10 points or less and lost to the Cavs, Suns, T'Wolves and Blazers by 6 points or less. This game could be used by many teams for film not to find out how to stop the Sacramento Kings, but how to stop the San Antonio Spurs. Tue, 27 Nov 2007 16:52:27 -0500 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/38919 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/38919