Yardbarker: Michael Jenkins

Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Depth Chart

Sat, 05 Jul 2008 14:18:15 -0500

Michael Turner will be the premier offensive threat in an overhauled Falcons offense. See which other Atlanta players will have fantasy value in this offensive depth chart summary.

2008 Bruno Boys Fantasy Football Notes - Atlanta Falcons

Thu, 05 Jun 2008 23:41:57 -0500

For the Atlanta Falcons, the season was pretty much over before it began. With all the controversy surrounding the Michael Vick dog fighting trial, the Falcons decided it would be better if he sat out the season and everything started going downhill from there.

Matt Millen Knows How to Pick'em

Sun, 20 Apr 2008 23:51:47 -0500

His teams have won thirty-one games compared to eighty-one loses. He's never built a team that has won more than 7 games in a season. His continued employment has inspired an "Angry Fan March", a halftime walkout and a stadium full of fans to wear a visiting team's colors. Is Matt Millen a terrible General Manager? Yes Is his penchant for selecting wide receivers in the first round and subsequent inability to do so successfully evidence of his inabilities to run a franchise? Not necessarilyâ€¦. Consider the subjective observation first. We tend to forget that each of the wide receivers Millen drafted (Charles Rogers, Roy Williams, Mike Williams and Calvin Johnson) was chosen in the widely-regarded appropriate slot. He never reached. It's true there were questions surrounding Mike Williams concerning his year off from football and potential weight issues. However, if not for those concerns Williams would not have even lasted until the tenth pick where the Lions selected him, the latest they drafted any of the four wide receivers. To be honest, I must admit that as a Titans fan I was upset when Tennessee chose Pacman Jones over Williams. In hindsight, disregarding off-the-field issues (And the troubles both players have had can be attributed to "off-the-field" issues. Pacman loves strip clubs so much he eats his meals there and Mike Williams treats every meal with the enthusiasm of a trip to the strip club.) the decision between Jones and Williams was like choosing between Christina Aguilera and Britney Spears. Once one got kinda fat and the other went crazy you suddenly wished you had given Mandy Moore a longer look. The other three were highly praised picks. Furthermore, all indications are that Calvin Johnson will join Roy Williams as a successively used high draft pick, giving Millen a 50% Success Rate when it comes to drafting 1st Round Wide Receivers. Is this Success Rate acceptable or further evidence that Millen belongs in a broadcast booth? To answer this question we need to determine what characterizes a successful first round wide receiver. Then we must determine a way to objectify whether or not a player meets those criteria and compare Millen's Success Rate against the league's average. First off, for a comparison I used the 1st Round Wide Receiver classes from 1995 to 2005 as my data set. This eleven year period works well as it gives us a representative sample of current trends while allowing enough time to evaluate selections to determine their success or indications of success to come. It should be noted now that the remarkable "1996 First Round WR Class" is included in the sample. A class featuring Keyshawn Johnson, Terry Glenn, Eddie Kennison, Marvin Harrison and Eric Mouldsâ€"all of whom proved themselves to be worthy first round selections by the metric of this study. During this stretch forty-eight wide receivers were drafted in the first round by a total of twenty-nine teams (Dallas, Oakland and San Diego were the three who did not make such a selection). Now, back to the question of what personifies a successful first round wide receiver. After considering the matter, I determined that an NFL team expects two attributes from a wide receiver it selects in the first round: impact and duration. Teams don't draft wide receivers that highly in the hopes that they will merely contribute nor do they select players hoping to get one or two good years out of them. A successful first round wide receiver is one that produces at a high level for an extended period of time. With this in mind, I set out to uncover a simple metric that would indicate if a player had achieved an acceptable level of impact and duration. Immediately upon reviewing the stats one number jumped out and it proved itself to be an appropriate metric after further analysis: 60 receptions. A player with 60 catches in a season averages 3.75 per game, or nearly one per quarterâ€"which would demonstrate a wide receiver of notable value to his offense. Furthermore, since 1995, players with 60 grabs have a median ranking of 41st for receptions on the year (mean = 40.923). It's safe to assume that NFL teams selecting a wide receiver in the first round expect that player to become a top 40 receiver at some point in their career. For a better understanding of what 60 receptions is, and the level of player that typically achieves the mark, consider a listing of some of the wide receivers who just topped 60 catches last year and some who fell just short. 60+: Andre Johnson (60), Santana Moss (61), Reggie Brown (61), Roy Williams(63) <60: Amani Toomer(59), Joey Galloway (57), Ronald Curry (55), Roydell Williams (55) Given that Johnson, Moss and Roy Williams missed multiple games, this list also demonstrates the conservatism of 60 receptions as a benchmark. I wanted this quality in such a simple metric because if Matt Millen's Selection Success Rate is 50%, as I claim, I would like to give other GMs every benefit of the doubt and err on the side of caution. In fact, the benchmark could even be dropped as low as 56 catches without changing any of the conclusions of this analysis. However, given the above argument, 60 receptions is a reliable metric for determining a "successful" wide receiver season. Sixty receptions signify significance but how many times must a player achieve this standard in order to demonstrate duration? Looking at the data the magic number seems to be three. Three years of 60+ receptions separates guys like Eddie Kennison (3) and Ike Hilliard (3) from Peter Warrick (2 â€¦. really?). And this works well across the board. So the standard for a Successful First Round Wide Receiver is at least three years of at least sixty receptionsâ€"with one exception. Some of the players in this data set haven't been in the league long enough to require three successful years for justification. A simple solution: any player drafted since 2004 only needs one year of at least 60 catches to make it upon the successful selection list. This allows for the inclusion of guys who have demonstrated an indication of future success while leaving off the players who can't reasonably be considered a justified first round wide receiver. Michael Jenkins is the personification of the young guys who didn't make the cut; four seasons with a single season high of 53 snags. On the flipside, this unfortunately leads to Michael Clayton's inclusionâ€"this truly is a conservative standard of success. However, between 1995 and 2005, only twenty-one of the forty-eight receivers drafted in the first round achieved the 60 receptions in three years (or one) benchmark, 43.75%. And while other examinations would have to be performed to determine the success rate at other positions, the fact that less than half the receivers taken in the first round since 1995 can be declared successful is truly telling of the risk a team undertakes by selecting a wide receiver with their first pick in the draft. If this percentage seems unusually low, then you might question the validity of the "60 x 3 Metric." However, it proves to have done a pretty accurate job of separating players who have proved themselves worthy of their draft position versus those who fell short. Guys who just made the list: Eddie Kennison, Ike Hilliard and David Boston. Kennison and Hilliard have never been anything special but have put together careers which justify their presence of the list of successful choices. And although Boston might seem as though he doesn't belong, a review of his short career reveals otherwise; over a four-year period he was a highly effective wide receiver. 2005: Games:5 Receptions: 4 Yards: 80 Touchdowns: 0 2003: Gms:14 Rcpts: 70 Yds: 880 TDs: 7 2002: Gms:8 Rcpts: 32 Yds: 512 TDs: 1 2001: Gms:16 Rcpts: 98 Yds: 1598 TDs: 8 2000: Gms:16 Rcpts: 71 Yds: 1156 TDs: 7 1999: Gms:16 Rcpts: 40 Yds: 473 TDs: 2 Then, those guys who just missed the list: Peter Warrick, Travis Taylor, Rod Gardner and Javon Walker. The first three clearly never justified their high selection and the fact that they just missed the list once more highlights the conservatism of the "60 x 3" metric. Arguments could be made for Walker's inclusion but he really hasn't accomplished as much as you initially thinkâ€"at least not yet. Aside from one strong year and one Pro Bowl level one, he's been barely more than a replacement level receiver, granted he lost a year to an ACL tear. Regardless, no metric will be perfect and Javon Walker's exclusion is more than made up for with Michael Clayton's inclusion. The proportionality of successful picks is maintained. So assuming Calvin Johnson proves himself to be worthy of his high selectionâ€"the great assumption of this analysisâ€"Matt Millen's 1st Round Wide Receiver Selection Rate of 50% is above the league average of 43.75%. While the difference is certainly not enough to declare that Millen has been "better" than the rest of the league in his selections, the numbers indicate that he is at least as good as other general managers. Indeed, only five teams who have selected multiple receivers in the first round since 1995 have a higher success rate: the Jets, Rams, Colts, Bills and Cardinals. By this standard, the worst team at selecting receivers early is not Detroit but Jacksonville. Despite these numbers, the argument could still be made that Millen's mistake is not in which receivers he drafted but in his selection of receivers at all. And this is a valid point. A position in which the majority of first round picks failâ€¦ might be a position to avoid with your first round pick. Or perhaps you should limit yourself to two wideouts per decade rather than four every five years. Just a little rule of thumb for Millen to consider. At the same time, the data shows that wide receivers picked in the Top 10 have faired relatively well (52.38% Success Rate), certainly better than those selected lower down in the first round (37.04% Success Rate). Perhaps this in some way justifies Millen's selecting four wide receivers with Top 10 selectionsâ€"if you're going to draft a receiver in the first round, make sure it's within the first ten picks. Just more than half of these players pan out and of the four chosen by the Lions it appears as though two will do so. I guess Nick Bakay is right. However, I would still say that Millen's mistake has not been the players he's chosen but agree with the common opinion that his mistake lies in his affinity for choosing receivers. But enough with Matt Millen. Regardless of his "Receiver Selectionability" he still sucks. What else can the numbers from this study tell us? After all, a review of forty-eight first round wide receivers should tell us a little more than, "Millen's ok." For starters, the higher success rate of Top 10 picks versus lower first round picks begins to address an assertion that has become popular the past few years, that high expectations lead to the (perceived) failure of first round receivers. However, Top 10 picks have higher expectations than lower first round picks yet have been more successful as a group. That's why is was such a big deal when Dwayne Bowe outperformed Calvin Johnson last yearâ€"we weren't expecting it. Johnson was the higher pick, he should have done more. Nevertheless, typically the Top 10 guys do outperform the guys picked in the 11th-32nd range, seemingly indicating that Superior Ability and Greater Opportunity trump Better Team Talent and Lower Expectations. Forget pressure. They're all first round draft picks, they feel the pressure. Just ask Robert Meachem. Continuing in this theme, the general consensus is that it takes three years for a wide receiver to truly "get it" and begin producing at a high level. While this may be true in regards to a player reaching his potential, or eventual, level of production, it doesn't seem to be true that a team has to wait for three years to see what it has in a wide receiver. Of the players who ever met the "60 x 3" metric, nearly 40% caught 60 balls in their first season and two-thirds did so within their first two seasons. Lastly, the data revealed an interesting patternâ€"the extremely high likelihood that the 3rd receiver selected in the first round will fail. Of these eleven players in this position, only one made the list of successful picks. Eddie Kennison; the receiver on the successful list who came the closest to being left off. Kennison is a combined eleven receptions over the successful threshold. Honestly, I couldn't come up with any logical explanation why this might be. There is always the probability that this finding is nothing more than a statistical anomaly but if you can come up with some rational reason, please share. Regardless, it's quite bizarre. I set out to answer a simple question, "Just how bad is Matt Millen at selecting wide receivers?" The answer was quite surprising, albeit unprofound. If nothing else, perhaps this study has uncovered a simple metric for determining receiver success and given some further insight into the uncertainty of 1st Round receiver selections. Or perhaps it reveals something different altogether, that the Detroit Lions don't select receivers that are doomed to fail but that the receivers they select are doomed to fail once they become Lions. I'm sorry Detroit fans. My "Fire Millen" shirt is in the mail. By: Parker Woodard Pwoodar1@utk.edu

2008 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Rounds 12-13

Mon, 04 Feb 2008 02:11:23 -0500

The 2007 fantasy football season may be over, but it's already time to be thinking about 2008. The Fantasy Football Experts are already hard at work completing a 2008 Fantasy Football Mock Draft. Here are the contestants: 1. Rob Shaw, Lead Expert for FantasyFanatics.com 2. Dan Cypra, Marketing Director for FantasyFanatics.com 3. Phil Jean, Fantasy Football Expert for FantasyFanatics.com The rules are simple: 1. This is a standard Yahoo scoring league. 2. Each Expert is responsible for four teams, so there are 12 total teams in the league. 3. Rookies were not eligible to be drafted since their NFL teams and use are unknown. 4. Each roster consists of one quarterback, three wide receivers, two running backs, one tight end, one kicker, and one defense. 5. There are 13 rounds total. There were a ton of surprises in the first 11 rounds. Check out Rounds 12 and 13 here.

Fantasy Football 2007: The Atlanta Falcons

Sun, 20 Jan 2008 07:47:49 -0500

This was not a good year for the Dirty Birds. The misfortunate commenced with the Michael Vick, and his eventual plea bargain leading to jail time, rather than game time. Having watched football for many years, I have heard of players quitting on teams, but never a coach quitting mid-season, but that's exactly what first year head-man Bobby Petrino did with 3 games remaining. The 2007 edition of the Atlanta Falcons will go down as one of the ugliest teams on the field, off the field, and also in the stats sheets. There were a few exceptions, of course, such as WR Roddy White. However, the majority of the Falcons helped make the 2007 season one to forget for Falcons fans and their fantasy owners.

Week 5 Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Article

Tue, 02 Oct 2007 19:17:35 -0500

Just when we thought everything figured out, Joey Harrington leads the Atlanta Falcons to a win while throwing no interceptions, Ron Dayne proves he can still run and the Arizona Cardinals handled the Pittsburgh Steelers in the second half to win. There were many good performances by players currently available on the waiver wire list so pay attention and act quickly as they might be gone by Tuesday. Here are a few players worth taking a look at for Week 5 and beyond, in the newest edition of Work the Wire, the Waiver Wire. —————————————————————————————— QUARTERBACKS Joey Harrington (Atlanta Falcons) — When you consider picking up Harrington, you already know what you might be getting into. His track record is not good, to say the least. But let's forget the past for a moment and just look at this season. Harrington is completing over 70 percent of his passes and has not thrown an interception since the first week. What's more important though is that the Falcons receivers are actually holding onto the ball this season. It's clear Harrington feels comfortable in the Falcons offense he's starting to look a little bit like that quarterback that was once drafted third overall. Looking at the rest of Atlanta's schedule, the Falcons really don't face any elite defenses the rest of the way. Before the team's bye in week 8, the Falcons will play Tennessee, the New York Giants and New Orleans. At this point, consider Harrington a good spot start in shallow leagues and a decent start in deeper leagues. —————————————————————————————— RUNNING BACKS Michael Pittman/Earnest Graham (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) — According to reports from Yahoo, Carnell Williams suffered a torn patellar tendon in the Buccaneers 20-7 over Carolina. We at Bruno Boys don't pretend to be doctors, but that sounds serious and Williams himself acknowledged as much after the game. Thus, Pittman and Graham step in and there's not much doubt that coach Jon Gruden will use a two-back system. Pittman will technically be referred to as the start, but both backs will likely get 15 or more carries. As for which one to pick up, well it's a tough one. Pittman is a between-the-tackles runner who does not possess any speed whatsoever. Graham on the other hand has some moves and is adept at catching passes as well. Until we see a full game with this set up, it's anybody's guess as to how it will shake out, but for now it appears Pittman will garner the goal line carries while Graham will be the team's runner between the 20s. Correll Buckhalter (Philadelphia Eagles) — It should come as no surprise that Brian Westbrook is injured again. In his absence, Buckhalter rushed for 103 yards on 17 carries in the Eagles' embarrassing lost to the New York Giants. Buckhalter has proven before that he's a capable runner multiple times before so he is not a bad start in deep leagues and is a good backup or spot starter in regular leagues. You will need to keep your eye on Westbrook though. The Eagles have a bye this week and it appears Westbrook will try to give it a go the following week. Still, knowing his injury history, it wouldn't be shocking if Buckhalter saw more playing time. Justin Fargas (Oakland Raiders) — This is a tough one. Fargas ran wild against the Dolphins, gaining 179 yards on 22 carries. Fargas has received at least five carries in each game this season so it's clear that the Raiders want to get him the ball. What's tricky is the other running backs on the roster. LaMont Jordan left the Miami game with an injury is questionable for week 6. Oher running back Dominic Rhodes will be eligible to play for the first time after sitting out the first four games while serving his suspension for steroids. At this point, Fargas remains an option only in deeper leagues and even then he's not the best start. Pay close attention to Jordan's injury and what the Raiders say about Jordan before you consider playing Fargas. Dominic Rhodes (Oakland Raiders) — Finally eligible to play after a four-game suspension, Rhodes will get plenty of playing time and his value goes up if Jordan is still hurt when week 6 rolls around. The Raiders didn't sign Rhodes to watch him sit on the bench, and he's proven with his time in Indianapolis that he is a capable running back. As stated above, you should pay close attention to what the Raiders say in interviews and if Jordan will be healthy enough to play. However, Bruno Boys have some inside information about Jordan, and reports indicate that he could barely walk after Sunday's victory in South Beach. —————————————————————————————— WIDE RECEIVERS Michael Jenkins (Atlanta Falcons) — The former first-round draft pick looks like he may finally have turned a corner. He's caught six passes in each of the last two weeks and looks like he's developing a nice rapport with Harrington. Similar to Harrington, you should know what you're getting into if you decide to sign Jenkins. But the talent is there and it's probably easier catching passes from Harrington than Michael Vick. Since the Falcons don't face an elite defense the rest of the way, Jenkins is a good candidate to start while one of your other receivers is on bye. It would be nice to see some more consistency out him before he warrants consideration as a regular fantasy option. Andre Davis (Houston Texans) — Until Andre Johnson is healthy enough to play again, it looks as if Davis will be the Texans No. 1 receiver. Davis has only played when since Johnson's injury, but he's played well, catching nine passes for 187 yards and a touchdown. With the way Matt Schaub is playing, Davis is a decent start in deeper leagues and worth a look in regular leagues. Bobby Engram (Seattle Seahawks) — The veteran has stepped up as the Seahawks' No. 2 receiver and has been consistently producing since week 1. His numbers are not big as he catches 4-5 passes a game, but he has scored touchdowns in back-to-back weeks and Engram is a sure-handed receiver, something Seattle hasn't been too familiar with in recent years. For now, Engram would make a decent third receiver in regular leagues and is a good option in deeper leagues. Ike Hilliard (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) — Hilliard has reestablished himself with the Buccaneers this season and was particularly good against the Panthers, catching seven passes for 114 yards. Since Michael Clayton has decided not step up, Hilliard has become Tampa Bay's No. 2 receiver. It's also become clear that Jeff Garcia has no problem throwing to him despite his tendency to drop passes. Still, Hilliard is only worth a look in deeper leagues as his performance against Carolina was closer to a high-water mark than an average day. He is a player to keep your eye on as he'll face a tough test next week against the Colts. —————————————————————————————— KICKERS Dave Rayner (Kansas City Chiefs) — Now that the Chiefs have demonstrated that they can move the ball, and score, against a tough defense like the Chargers, Rayner is worth picking up. He had 12 points against San Diego, connecting on all three field goals and both extra points. Thus far, he has only missed one kick and has a long of 49 yards. He's always been a good kicker from long distances and is a good option in any league. —————————————————————————————— STILL AVAILABLE Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City Chiefs) — The receiver has now caught touchdowns in three consecutive weeks and is quickly bucking the trend that rookie receivers can't produce. His 168 receiving yard effort led all wideouts in Week 4. His size (6-2, 221) presents tough matchups for undersized cornerbacks. It's nice to see that Damon Huard has developed a nice rapport with Bowe, but the best thing is that the Chiefs love to throw to him in the red zone. If he is still available, he's worth picking up and starting in any league. ——————————————————————————————

Do The Falcons Hold The Sleeper?

Mon, 02 Jul 2007 16:49:18 -0500

Vick made owners look like geniuses in last seasons fantasy playoffs. In week 15 he had a career game where he... Big sleeper in the draft!

NFL 2006 Season Preview: Atlanta Falcons

Sat, 16 Sep 2006 18:34:40 -0500

From my series of season previews I wrote about a month ago, this one concerns Michael Vick and the Atlanta Falcons. I break down his improvement as well as factoring in the new additions for the team on offense and defense.

Pro Bowl CB DeAngelo Hall to Play WR?

Thu, 10 Aug 2006 06:14:00 -0500

"The offense gets the glory," Hall said and with that he's convinced the Falcons to give him a look at WR. With Finneran done for the year and White and Jenkins far from sure things, Hall might actually see a few passes come his way. "He practices plays like he's been there forever," Vick said. "When he comes into our huddle and we call a play, he knows exactly what to run. He may not run the best routes in the world, but you've got to give a guy like that the ball. He's just an athlete."