Yardbarker: Aaron Heilman

Bill James 2010 Projections for Cubs

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 12:44:58 -0500

Fangraphs is once again going to list the projections on their player pages from a variety of sources, Bill James, CHONE, Marcel....maybe more. Bill James projections are up first and here's how the Cubs ranked by wOBA and their 2009 wOBA (explanation of wOBA here). I'll try and expand when new projections are released. Age is their 2010 playing age. You can click on their names to get their full slash line predictions and more.

Player
Age
2009 wOBA
Bill James 2010 wOBA Projection
Derrek Lee
34 .412 .386 Aramis Ramirez
32
.392
.375
Jake Fox
27 .332 .375
Milton Bradley
32
.345
.365 Geovany Soto
27 .310 .362 Micah Hoffpauir
30
.315 .350 Kosuke Fukudome
33 .346 .349 Jeff Baker
29
.338 346 Alfonso Soriano 34
.314 .346 Mike Fontenot
30
.296 .334 Ryan Theriot
30
.318
.319
Sam Fuld
28
.367 .317 Tyler Colvin
24 .205 .316
Reed Johnson
33
.321 .312
Aaron Miles
33
.212
.300 Koyie Hill
31
.279
.289
Andres Blanco
26
.271 .285

For the pitchers, here's their projected ERA and FIP (explanation of FIP here).

Player
Age 2009 ERA
2009 FIP
2010 James Projected ERA
2010 James Projected FIP
Carlos Zambrano 29 3.77 3.61 3.60 3.90 Ted Lilly
34 3.10
3.65
3.76
4.30
Ryan Dempster
33
3.65
3.87
3.83
3.92
Randy Wells
27
3.05
3.88
4.16
4.10
Sean Marshall
27
4.32
4.19
4.06
4.34
Tom Gorzelanny
27 5.55
3.91
4.11 4.01 Jeff Samardzija
25 7.53
5.90
5.44
5.47
Carlos Marmol
27 3.41
4.06
3.45 4.00
John Grabow
31 3.36 4.20
4.00
4.17
Aaron Heilman
31
4.11
4.37
3.88
4.25
Angel Guzman
28
2.95 4.44 4.03
4.11

Alright, nothing too surprising in any of these numbers, although I can't tell you how much it makes my heart flutter to see the Cubs highest paid position player in the middle of the offensive pack.

Two pitchers stood out to me...Gorzelanny and Guzman. I was a bit down on Gorzelanny but his peripherals were pretty strong last year...9 K/9 rate and a 1.15 HR/9 to go with a 3.26 BB/9 rate. Definitely a legitimate 4th/5th starter candidate with an even higher ceiling considering his age and the very nice 2007 season he had. Guzman on the other hand, had a mere 6.93 K/9 rate last year with a 3.39 BB/9 rate with a miniscule .209 BABIP. A little luckier than I had previously thought, but he does keep the ball in the park and the James projections do expect an increase in his K/9 rate...although no guess on when he'll hit the disabled list.

Anyway, they're merely projections, nothing to take too seriously. They sure didn't nail Soto, Soriano or Fontenot's demise last year, so just consider it some fun off-season fodder.

Be sure you don't miss Arizona Phil's Top 15 prospect list...

Building A Cubs Champion: 2010 Edition

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 10:15:22 -0500

by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP Like it or not, one of the keys to the Cubs' success in 2010 is a resurgence by Alfonso Soriano. Here, he launches his game-winning grand slam vs. the Astros last July 27. View full size photo » Last year about this time, I made this post discussing what I thought should be the makeup of the 2009 Cubs. Brave, isn't it, of me to post that link when I'd just as soon forget ab...

Holliday Walks Off the Cubs - Cubs 2 Cardinals 3

Fri, 18 Sep 2009 23:17:37 -0500

Game One Hundred Forty-Six - Cubs 2 Cardinals 3 WP - Ryan Franklin (3-3) LP - Aaron Heilman (3-4) Save - None After jumping out to an early 2-0 lead in the first inning, the Cubs lost the opening game in St. Louis on the fifth pitch of the bottom of the ninth inning. Ryan Theriot reached on a two-out single in the top of the ninth but was picked off first with Kosuke Fukudome at the plate with a 2-0 count to end the inning. Aaron Heilman took the mound to start the bottom of the ninth ... M...

Lotz and Lotz of Patience - Cubs 13 Brewers 7

Tue, 15 Sep 2009 23:43:08 -0500

Game One Hundred Forty-Three - Cubs 13 Brewers 7 WP - Aaron Heilman (3-3) LP - Yovani Gallardo (12-12) Save - None For one of the few times this year the Cubs patience at the plate led to a win. The Cubs walked a season-high 12 times and the Brewers pitching staff hit three batters ... including Aramis Ramirez in the sixth with the bases loaded that forced in the eventual winning run. The Cubs pounded out 11 hits to go along with the 15 free base runners. Derrek Lee walked four times ...

Hendry: Harden Was A Non Story

Tue, 01 Sep 2009 09:14:15 -0500

Jim Hendry has had enough of the chattiness around the waiver process, thank you very much: "It was the biggest non-story of that big of magnitude," Hendry said. "We always run everyone through what we call 'trade waivers.' Everyone in Major League Baseball usually runs their whole team through in August. We had 12 people claimed over the course of the month, and for whatever reason, two names (Harden and Aaron Heilman) were made public. "It's not something I...

Cubs Keep Harden, Heilman

Mon, 31 Aug 2009 14:39:13 -0500

The deadline for the Cubs to make waiver deals for Rich Harden and Aaron Heilman has passed with neither man being traded. Another option was to release them outright, but the Cubs, I guess feeling they still have a shot at the Wild Card, have decided to retain the pitchers instead. Paul Sullivan’s observation is typical [...]

Are Cubs Silently Waving White Flag?

Thu, 27 Aug 2009 18:47:44 -0500

You can't say that Jim Hendry isn't trying to still do his job. Reports came out today that Aaron Heilman and Rich Harden have both been claimed on waivers, Heilman definitely by an NL Team and Harden most likely by a pitching-starved NL team. Rosenthal's report says the Cubs have until Monday afternoon to complete a deal, but that seems longer than the normal 48 hour window to complete this type of transaction.

Heilman is owed about $270K on his contract this year, might as well just save it if your the Cubs and let him go to whatever team claimed him if a deal can't be worked out. I highly doubt any team that did claim him was trying to block him from somebody, since you know, it would probably actually hurt most teams that he joined, so there must be some interest there or maybe some drunk GM'ing. Since the Cubs aren't going anywhere with Heilman on the team and they're not going to offer him arbitration this offseason, hopefully Hendry can take advantage of this opportunity and send Heilman on his merry way...where he can win a World Championship and then go broke in the offseason.

Rich Harden is owed about $1.2M on his deal, but his true value will be beyond this season. The Cubs could try and resign him to a long-term deal, although that's doubtful. With a pretty bare market for starting pitchers, Harden will likely snag some sort of multi-year deal, so offering him arbitration is a no-brainer and if he does happen to accept it, I'm sure not going to complain about getting him back in a Cubs uniform for 2010. If Hendry does work out a trade, he will have to get back something resembling two 1st/2nd round talents from whatever team claimed him and in this case, I could see the Giants trying to block the Dodgers here and they're probably not looking for starting pitching right now.

And while teams generally put the bulk of their roster through waivers during this time period, it's somewhat interesting that the Cubs waited until the end of August here to put one of their most tradeable pieces in Harden. If Hendry can squeeze out two top prospects, preferably at higher levels in the minors, he can avoid the arbitration and paperwork headache in the offseason, avoid any potential late season injury to Harden that we're always worried about and hypothetically pick up two prospects closer to the show. A prospect in the hand is worth two in the draft so to speak....

Harden and Heilman Claimed Off Waivers

Thu, 27 Aug 2009 16:45:43 -0500

According to a report from Ken Rosenthal, Rich Harden and Aaron Heilman were both claimed off waivers on Thursday. The Cubs will have until Monday to trade both players or pull them back.

Rich Harden, Aaron Heilman Claimed on Waivers

Thu, 27 Aug 2009 15:06:15 -0500

The Cubs have placed both Rich Harden and Aaron Heilman on waivers, and both players have been claimed, reports Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com Neither claiming team is known, though it has been revealed that Heilman was taken by a National League club. The Cubs now have until Monday to either work out trades for the players, [...]

Mets claim Nieve...

Sat, 14 Mar 2009 15:01:34 -0500

One of the first questions Omar fielded this morning after announcing that Tim Redding would be side lined indefinitely was whether it changed his stance on Pedro Martinez. Again Minaya asserted that the team was not negotiating with Pedro. If that wasn't enough, then the Mets most recent waiver claim should solidify there stance that they've turned the page on him.Why do I think the team is so against bringing in Pedro. I believe the biggest problem is his asking price, Pedro is stil...

A Market for Heilman?

Sun, 14 Dec 2008 01:37:53 -0500

Aaron Heilman - again - wants to be a starter

Fri, 21 Nov 2008 19:07:32 -0500

Haven't we heard this before? Mets reliever Aaron Heilman apparently called GM Omar Minaya yesterday to discuss a role in the starting rotation. Minaya, though, still sees Heilman as part of the bullpen. "We talked and he expressed himself," Minaya said. "He told me that he'd like the opportunity to start. But my job is to make sure I do what's in the best interest of the team, and we still see him in the bullpen."I guess Heilman figures that since he...

Heilman gets big nod for rotation...

Thu, 20 Nov 2008 20:58:34 -0500

It's been reported, analyzed and editorialized by every NY newspaper, sports outlet and Mets blog across the web that Aaron Heilman has requested to start or be traded (including me). Like I've said before Heilman in my opinion needs a change of scenery and the Mets need to move Heilman as part ...

Heilman pushes the issue....

Thu, 20 Nov 2008 08:38:43 -0500

Most Mets fans ( including myself ) don't want to see Aaron Heilman return next year to the Mets and I think if he could be honest (instead of politically correct) Heilman would say he doesn't want to return. I've said all along I believe Heilman will be a good pitcher but I think too much has ...

Mets Considering Heilman for Starter's Role?

Wed, 05 Dec 2007 18:54:03 -0500

It's not a bad notion, especially given the rumblings out there that the Nationals might be willing to offer free agent Livan Hernandez a two-year offer. I'm not sure I'm interested in Livan for one-year, let alone two.