Yardbarker: Eric Moulds

Fantasy Football Projections - Tennessee Titans

Sat, 12 Jul 2008 02:18:29 -0500

A quick look at the offensive statistics for the Tennessee Titans last season reveals nothing eye-opening. The quarterback threw more interceptions than touchdowns, the running back had over 1,000 yards, but averaged just 3.7 yards a carry and no receiver had more than 800 yards. Yet, the Titans somehow managed to go 10-6 and advanced to the playoffs. Quarterback, Vince Young, had what can only be called a transitional year. He threw for 2,546 yards, nine touchdowns and 17 interceptions. Comparatively, he threw for 2,199 yards, 12 touchdowns and 13 interceptions as a rookie. Young also had four more rushing touchdowns and 157 more rushing yards as a rookie. However, there were some positives. Perhaps unnoticed by the average fantasy owner, Young increased his completion percentage, from 51.5 in 2006 to 62.3 last year and his quarterback rating, from 66.7 two years ago to 71.1 last season. Meanwhile, running back, LenDale White, finally made good on some of his potential, rushing for 1,110 yard and seven touchdowns on 303 carries. Chris Brown added 462 yards and five touchdowns on 102 carries, while rookie Chris Henry rushed for 119 yards and two touchdowns on 31 carries. On the receiving end, Justin Gage caught 55 passes for 750 yards and two touchdowns, while Roydell Williams caught 55 passes as well, going for 719 yards and four touchdowns. Tight end, Bo Scaife, had his best season yet, catching 46 passes for 421 yards and one touchdown. Perhaps the best fantasy performance though came from Tennessee's kicker, Rob Bironas, who had a career year, scoring 133 points up from his previous best of 99 in 2005. None of that though compares with the Titans defense. Thought to be weakened by the loss of Pacman "Adam" Jones, the Titans surprised everyone as they ranked eighth in points allowed, fifth in total yards allowed, 10th in passing yards allowed and fifth in rushing yards allowed, a big reason Tennessee made that playoff push. To read more about what Bruno Boys Staff Writer, Cory Steger, has to say about the Tennessee Titans and their fantasy potential, click the link below

Trade Lito or sign a WR?

Mon, 12 May 2008 16:12:05 -0500

While the free agency purge and the NFL Draft have come and gone, teams hold minicamps and continue to evaluate their rosters as they look to shape the club they will bring to training camp late this summer. While the premier free agents have been plucked from the market, many players -- mostly experienced veterans - remain available to provide key depth or injury replacements. The Eagles are still looking for a premier WR. There a few WR on the free agent market right now that I think could come in and help out in the receving core even though the eagles are happy with the WRs that they have right now there are rumors going around that they are still trying to shop Lito around for a premier WR. I want to know what you think. Would you rather keep Lito on the team and sign one of the WRs on the market right now or trade Lito for a vetern WR. Again I know the Eagles said they are happy with WRs they have right now. I came up with some WRs on the market right now. I know these guys are not the premier WR that we are looking but I think any of them could come in and help us. Koren Robinson, WR: Just released by the Packers and young enough to still have a good career. He has return skills as well as being a big target. A team like Philadelphia should take a look at him. Eric Moulds, WR: Played in all 16 games last year, including eight starts, with 32 receptions for 342 yards. Keenan McCardell, WR: Put up 256 yards and one touchdown on 22 receptions with the Redskins. Chris Henry, WR: Even though he may be the most talented free agent on the street, teams will be hesitant to sign the former Bengal because of his off-the-field issue.

Matt Millen Knows How to Pick'em

Sun, 20 Apr 2008 23:51:47 -0500

His teams have won thirty-one games compared to eighty-one loses. He's never built a team that has won more than 7 games in a season. His continued employment has inspired an "Angry Fan March", a halftime walkout and a stadium full of fans to wear a visiting team's colors. Is Matt Millen a terrible General Manager? Yes Is his penchant for selecting wide receivers in the first round and subsequent inability to do so successfully evidence of his inabilities to run a franchise? Not necessarily…. Consider the subjective observation first. We tend to forget that each of the wide receivers Millen drafted (Charles Rogers, Roy Williams, Mike Williams and Calvin Johnson) was chosen in the widely-regarded appropriate slot. He never reached. It's true there were questions surrounding Mike Williams concerning his year off from football and potential weight issues. However, if not for those concerns Williams would not have even lasted until the tenth pick where the Lions selected him, the latest they drafted any of the four wide receivers. To be honest, I must admit that as a Titans fan I was upset when Tennessee chose Pacman Jones over Williams. In hindsight, disregarding off-the-field issues (And the troubles both players have had can be attributed to "off-the-field" issues. Pacman loves strip clubs so much he eats his meals there and Mike Williams treats every meal with the enthusiasm of a trip to the strip club.) the decision between Jones and Williams was like choosing between Christina Aguilera and Britney Spears. Once one got kinda fat and the other went crazy you suddenly wished you had given Mandy Moore a longer look. The other three were highly praised picks. Furthermore, all indications are that Calvin Johnson will join Roy Williams as a successively used high draft pick, giving Millen a 50% Success Rate when it comes to drafting 1st Round Wide Receivers. Is this Success Rate acceptable or further evidence that Millen belongs in a broadcast booth? To answer this question we need to determine what characterizes a successful first round wide receiver. Then we must determine a way to objectify whether or not a player meets those criteria and compare Millen's Success Rate against the league's average. First off, for a comparison I used the 1st Round Wide Receiver classes from 1995 to 2005 as my data set. This eleven year period works well as it gives us a representative sample of current trends while allowing enough time to evaluate selections to determine their success or indications of success to come. It should be noted now that the remarkable "1996 First Round WR Class" is included in the sample. A class featuring Keyshawn Johnson, Terry Glenn, Eddie Kennison, Marvin Harrison and Eric Moulds—all of whom proved themselves to be worthy first round selections by the metric of this study. During this stretch forty-eight wide receivers were drafted in the first round by a total of twenty-nine teams (Dallas, Oakland and San Diego were the three who did not make such a selection). Now, back to the question of what personifies a successful first round wide receiver. After considering the matter, I determined that an NFL team expects two attributes from a wide receiver it selects in the first round: impact and duration. Teams don't draft wide receivers that highly in the hopes that they will merely contribute nor do they select players hoping to get one or two good years out of them. A successful first round wide receiver is one that produces at a high level for an extended period of time. With this in mind, I set out to uncover a simple metric that would indicate if a player had achieved an acceptable level of impact and duration. Immediately upon reviewing the stats one number jumped out and it proved itself to be an appropriate metric after further analysis: 60 receptions. A player with 60 catches in a season averages 3.75 per game, or nearly one per quarter—which would demonstrate a wide receiver of notable value to his offense. Furthermore, since 1995, players with 60 grabs have a median ranking of 41st for receptions on the year (mean = 40.923). It's safe to assume that NFL teams selecting a wide receiver in the first round expect that player to become a top 40 receiver at some point in their career. For a better understanding of what 60 receptions is, and the level of player that typically achieves the mark, consider a listing of some of the wide receivers who just topped 60 catches last year and some who fell just short. 60+: Andre Johnson (60), Santana Moss (61), Reggie Brown (61), Roy Williams(63) <60: Amani Toomer(59), Joey Galloway (57), Ronald Curry (55), Roydell Williams (55) Given that Johnson, Moss and Roy Williams missed multiple games, this list also demonstrates the conservatism of 60 receptions as a benchmark. I wanted this quality in such a simple metric because if Matt Millen's Selection Success Rate is 50%, as I claim, I would like to give other GMs every benefit of the doubt and err on the side of caution. In fact, the benchmark could even be dropped as low as 56 catches without changing any of the conclusions of this analysis. However, given the above argument, 60 receptions is a reliable metric for determining a "successful" wide receiver season. Sixty receptions signify significance but how many times must a player achieve this standard in order to demonstrate duration? Looking at the data the magic number seems to be three. Three years of 60+ receptions separates guys like Eddie Kennison (3) and Ike Hilliard (3) from Peter Warrick (2 …. really?). And this works well across the board. So the standard for a Successful First Round Wide Receiver is at least three years of at least sixty receptions—with one exception. Some of the players in this data set haven't been in the league long enough to require three successful years for justification. A simple solution: any player drafted since 2004 only needs one year of at least 60 catches to make it upon the successful selection list. This allows for the inclusion of guys who have demonstrated an indication of future success while leaving off the players who can't reasonably be considered a justified first round wide receiver. Michael Jenkins is the personification of the young guys who didn't make the cut; four seasons with a single season high of 53 snags. On the flipside, this unfortunately leads to Michael Clayton's inclusion—this truly is a conservative standard of success. However, between 1995 and 2005, only twenty-one of the forty-eight receivers drafted in the first round achieved the 60 receptions in three years (or one) benchmark, 43.75%. And while other examinations would have to be performed to determine the success rate at other positions, the fact that less than half the receivers taken in the first round since 1995 can be declared successful is truly telling of the risk a team undertakes by selecting a wide receiver with their first pick in the draft. If this percentage seems unusually low, then you might question the validity of the "60 x 3 Metric." However, it proves to have done a pretty accurate job of separating players who have proved themselves worthy of their draft position versus those who fell short. Guys who just made the list: Eddie Kennison, Ike Hilliard and David Boston. Kennison and Hilliard have never been anything special but have put together careers which justify their presence of the list of successful choices. And although Boston might seem as though he doesn't belong, a review of his short career reveals otherwise; over a four-year period he was a highly effective wide receiver. 2005: Games:5 Receptions: 4 Yards: 80 Touchdowns: 0 2003: Gms:14 Rcpts: 70 Yds: 880 TDs: 7 2002: Gms:8 Rcpts: 32 Yds: 512 TDs: 1 2001: Gms:16 Rcpts: 98 Yds: 1598 TDs: 8 2000: Gms:16 Rcpts: 71 Yds: 1156 TDs: 7 1999: Gms:16 Rcpts: 40 Yds: 473 TDs: 2 Then, those guys who just missed the list: Peter Warrick, Travis Taylor, Rod Gardner and Javon Walker. The first three clearly never justified their high selection and the fact that they just missed the list once more highlights the conservatism of the "60 x 3" metric. Arguments could be made for Walker's inclusion but he really hasn't accomplished as much as you initially think—at least not yet. Aside from one strong year and one Pro Bowl level one, he's been barely more than a replacement level receiver, granted he lost a year to an ACL tear. Regardless, no metric will be perfect and Javon Walker's exclusion is more than made up for with Michael Clayton's inclusion. The proportionality of successful picks is maintained. So assuming Calvin Johnson proves himself to be worthy of his high selection—the great assumption of this analysis—Matt Millen's 1st Round Wide Receiver Selection Rate of 50% is above the league average of 43.75%. While the difference is certainly not enough to declare that Millen has been "better" than the rest of the league in his selections, the numbers indicate that he is at least as good as other general managers. Indeed, only five teams who have selected multiple receivers in the first round since 1995 have a higher success rate: the Jets, Rams, Colts, Bills and Cardinals. By this standard, the worst team at selecting receivers early is not Detroit but Jacksonville. Despite these numbers, the argument could still be made that Millen's mistake is not in which receivers he drafted but in his selection of receivers at all. And this is a valid point. A position in which the majority of first round picks fail… might be a position to avoid with your first round pick. Or perhaps you should limit yourself to two wideouts per decade rather than four every five years. Just a little rule of thumb for Millen to consider. At the same time, the data shows that wide receivers picked in the Top 10 have faired relatively well (52.38% Success Rate), certainly better than those selected lower down in the first round (37.04% Success Rate). Perhaps this in some way justifies Millen's selecting four wide receivers with Top 10 selections—if you're going to draft a receiver in the first round, make sure it's within the first ten picks. Just more than half of these players pan out and of the four chosen by the Lions it appears as though two will do so. I guess Nick Bakay is right. However, I would still say that Millen's mistake has not been the players he's chosen but agree with the common opinion that his mistake lies in his affinity for choosing receivers. But enough with Matt Millen. Regardless of his "Receiver Selectionability" he still sucks. What else can the numbers from this study tell us? After all, a review of forty-eight first round wide receivers should tell us a little more than, "Millen's ok." For starters, the higher success rate of Top 10 picks versus lower first round picks begins to address an assertion that has become popular the past few years, that high expectations lead to the (perceived) failure of first round receivers. However, Top 10 picks have higher expectations than lower first round picks yet have been more successful as a group. That's why is was such a big deal when Dwayne Bowe outperformed Calvin Johnson last year—we weren't expecting it. Johnson was the higher pick, he should have done more. Nevertheless, typically the Top 10 guys do outperform the guys picked in the 11th-32nd range, seemingly indicating that Superior Ability and Greater Opportunity trump Better Team Talent and Lower Expectations. Forget pressure. They're all first round draft picks, they feel the pressure. Just ask Robert Meachem. Continuing in this theme, the general consensus is that it takes three years for a wide receiver to truly "get it" and begin producing at a high level. While this may be true in regards to a player reaching his potential, or eventual, level of production, it doesn't seem to be true that a team has to wait for three years to see what it has in a wide receiver. Of the players who ever met the "60 x 3" metric, nearly 40% caught 60 balls in their first season and two-thirds did so within their first two seasons. Lastly, the data revealed an interesting pattern—the extremely high likelihood that the 3rd receiver selected in the first round will fail. Of these eleven players in this position, only one made the list of successful picks. Eddie Kennison; the receiver on the successful list who came the closest to being left off. Kennison is a combined eleven receptions over the successful threshold. Honestly, I couldn't come up with any logical explanation why this might be. There is always the probability that this finding is nothing more than a statistical anomaly but if you can come up with some rational reason, please share. Regardless, it's quite bizarre. I set out to answer a simple question, "Just how bad is Matt Millen at selecting wide receivers?" The answer was quite surprising, albeit unprofound. If nothing else, perhaps this study has uncovered a simple metric for determining receiver success and given some further insight into the uncertainty of 1st Round receiver selections. Or perhaps it reveals something different altogether, that the Detroit Lions don't select receivers that are doomed to fail but that the receivers they select are doomed to fail once they become Lions. I'm sorry Detroit fans. My "Fire Millen" shirt is in the mail. By: Parker Woodard Pwoodar1@utk.edu

Offensive needs? FA still has some

Sun, 16 Mar 2008 09:43:35 -0500

The first wave of free agency is essentially over. However, teams looking for help on the offensive line can still find quality starters. Quarterback Daunte Culpepper Byron Leftwich Quinn Gray Gus Frerotte Tim Rattay Kelly Holcomb Trent Dilfer Craig Nall Marques Tuiasosopo Running Back Kevin Jones Ron Dayne Michael Pittman Musa Smith Mike Anderson Anthony Thomas Verron Haynes Fullback Lorenzo Neal Dan Kreider Cecil Sapp Jim Finn Wide Receiver D.J. Hackett Bryant Johnson Eddie Kennison David Givens Eric Moulds Samie Parker Reche Caldwell Peerless Price Robert Ferguson Keenan McCardell Tim Carter Jerheme Urban Troy Walters Aaron Moorehead Tim Dwight Troy Brown Bryan Gilmore Tight End L.J. Smith (franchise player) Bubba Franks Kris Wilson Marcus Pollard Dwayne Blakley Jason Dunn Stephen Alexander Jerramy Stevens Ryan Krause Christian Fauria Aaron Walker Offensive Tackle Stacy Andrews (franchise player) Fred Miller Max Starks (transition player) Shane Olivea Barry Sims Anthony Clement L.J. Shelton Oliver Ross Jason Fabini Wayne Gandy Mike Rosenthal Nat Dorsey Barry Stokes Stockar McDougle Guard Chris Naeole Jake Scott Fred Weary Floyd Womack John Welbourn Tutan Reyes Ruben Brown Matt Lehr (C) Seth McKinney Todd Steussie Milford Brown Center Justin Hartwig Mike Flynn Casey Wiegmann Mike Flanagan Jeremy Newberry Brett Romberg Kicker Jason Elam Olindo Mare Morten Andersen Aaron Elling Punter Mitch Berger

Wide Reciever Options

Mon, 03 Mar 2008 17:41:29 -0500

Ok im not saying i want any of these wide recievers, but when there is what ifs, the Eagles got to look at all options. Moss is gone, Walker has been crossed off, Fitz is being asked too much for, so leaves us with names like Bryant Johnson and D.J. Hackett, who you would be taking a shot on. What do you all think about these names, from the list of WRs available according to ESPN. These names caught my eyes: Eric Moulds Justin McCareins Brandon Lloyd Drew Carter

Tennessee Titans in free agency

Tue, 19 Feb 2008 21:46:08 -0500

Like every other team in the league, the Titans have a sizable number of players who will be effected. Those not tagged, resigned or tendered will become free agents, so Mike Reinfeldt, Jeff Fisher and the Titans' staff have some decisions to make. If I was the one making the decisions, this is how I'd look at it...

Titans offseason positional review - wide receivers

Fri, 08 Feb 2008 15:58:03 -0500

The wide receivers have been a major weakness of the Tennessee Titans for years and the situation didn't improve any last year. It still looks bleak from my point of view. I just don't see any help on the horizon, especially for the 2008 season...

Fantasy Players to Avoid in 2007

Sat, 25 Aug 2007 02:19:13 -0500

The competitive spirit burns away in the hearts of many players, even when their bodies are no longer able to keep up with the rigors of professional sports. You see it in every sport – Michael Jordan laboring around in a Wizard's jersey or Jerry Rice looking totally ineffective on a terrible Raiders team. FIO staff writer John Ward takes a look at some of those players whose time has come and gone in the NFL. Sure, these guys may have looked nasty a few years ago, but now, you might want to think twice before drafting them in your fantasy leagues.

2006 Players to Watch

Mon, 14 Aug 2006 17:46:35 -0500

Yes, it's true... between the mundane of baseball in May, the NBA and NHL playoffs continually counting down, I guess it's time for me to start thinking about the one thing that makes my Fall Semester such a bad one... both academically and professionally... NFL!!!! I'm kinda exasperated right now with the daily recaps, I read them, and they are all very good. But everyone's got one, it seems... I decided that, with my finals week officially starting today, I didn't want to go through the time to recap everything that you can already see on Sportscenter or even just the evening news broadcast. I'm not an expert (except in my own mind) and therefore won't play one on this blog... although I did, for the longest time, want to be on the ABC sitcom 'Sports Night.' I haven't had much time for researching my 'I Was a College B-Ball All-Star' series, which stopped me momentarily. I don't want to do those if I'm not able to give it my full attention. So with mini-camps going, I made my list of my favorite players in the NFL at each respective position... this takes into account a lot, including, but not limited to: (not in any particular order) 1.) 2005 Performance 2.) Career Numbers 3.) Personality and Likability 4.) Team Performances 5.) Fantasy Performances 6.) Star Status 7.) Their Overall Game So without any more exclamation to this, we can give you the offensive side of the ball. Just a quick note, too... although most of the first round picks this year will be on my radar, I chose not to include the rookies here... I'll make my all-rookie preseason team once we get into the depths of training camps and preseasons... Also, I'm only going w/skill positions on offense, and only one of each position on defense... QB - Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals 2005 Stats 345/509 CMP/ATT 67.8% PCT 3876 YDS 7.5 AVG 32 TD 12 INT 101.2 QB RAT Notes: It'll be interesting to see how the breakout offensive performer of 2005 recovers from a serious knee injury. Two ligament tears in a knee are a big deal, to say the least, but it'll be interesting. Carson was easily one of the best in the league last season, and if healthy could have another banner year, maybe even surpassing his year last year. He's got the offensive weapons, esp. the Johnsons... (Rudi, Jeremi, and Chad) to support him in his offensive endeavors. We'll have to see whether he can weather the storm... I think he can and I look forward to watching the preseason to continue to get my updates. RB - Larry Johnson,, Kansas City Chiefs 2005 Stats 336 ATT 1750 RUSH YDS 5.2 YD AVG. 49 YD LONG 20 TD Notes: The guy did this on only 10 games started. You want to know how amazing this season really was. The guy averaged a little more than 150 yards/game during his 9 game 100 yd+ streak. Carried over a season's worth of carries and yards, they would have been a bit over 2,400 yards for the season, eclipsing the previous single season record set by Eric Dickerson... Now I'm intrigued to see what he does for an encore, when everyone says now it'll be his job and with a coach in Herm Edwards who loves to run the football. All I can say is this will be fun... RB - DeShaun Foster, Carolina Panthers 2005 Stats 205 ATT 879 RUSH YDS. 4.3 YDS AVG 70 YD LONG 2 TDS Notes: DeShaun has intrigued me and piqued my attention since his days at UCLA. Living in the relative hotbed of Pac 10 football (merely 400 miles from the LA schools, Stanford and Cal right down the freeway, less than an hour away, I see and hear a lot about the Pac 10. Foster has been one of those guys that I've followed from his Bruin days. In the NFL, he's shown flashes of brilliance, and I can't believe that he won't continue to show it, even with a guy as dynamic as D'Angelo Williams being drafted in front of him. Contrary to popular belief, I think he'll be a motivating factor for Foster, and we just may see him thrive in the two back set... much like with Stephen Davis. If not, there could be a lot of teams in the market, and he'd be more of a tradable commodity than Nick Goings, who could still be a more than adaquate backup... in the end, I think his new contract could turn out to be a motivating factor, or maybe a detriment. Needless to say, he'll be fun to watch. WR - Joe Jurevicius, Cleveland Browns 2005 Stats (w/Seattle Seahawks) 55 REC 694 REC YDS 12.6 YD AVG 52 YD LNG 10 TDS Notes: The best statistical season he's had since 2001 with the Giants, Joe turned himself into a steady force for Matt Hasselbeck and easily held down the fort while both Darrell Jackson and Bobby Engram both fought injuries during the season. Was a great pickup by the Browns, who were looking for a good, steady receiver for the emerging Charlie Frye. He could stand to have one of his best seasons to date, maybe even surpassing the 2001 season that ended with a Super Bowl appearance. Frye isn't Hasselbeck, but I believe that Frye will lean on him more and more as a veteran who will bail him out of some jams. Most unlike other receivers, he's a very unassuming character on and off the field... which should lead to him barely being mentioned by Sportscenter or other highlight reels... but he's not in it for that. WR - Eric Moulds, Houston Texans 2005 Stats (w/Buffalo Bills) 81 REC 816 YDS 10.1 YDS AVG 55 YD LNG 4 TDS Notes: Wanting to get out of Buffalo, some might consider Moulds' move to Houston as a downgrade for him. I actually am one of the people who consider it otherwise. A chance for him to 're-birth' his image while playing for a team that could be a good offense with the ability to pass-block. With Moulds teaming up with Andre Johnson, and with Dominick Davis in the backfield, they could light it up. Reggis Bush would have added even more firepower and might have helped rejuvinate Moulds' career, but nonetheless if he can have a good season I think we'll have to watching very carefully... he'll be a veteran leader for this team. If not... ehhh, we just won't go there. TE - Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City Chiefs 2005 Stats 78 REC 905 REC YDS 11.6 AVG YDS 39 YD LNG 2 TDS Notes: What some might actually call a subpar season, he could have still led a few teams in the NFL in receptions alone, but with only 2 touchdowns they began to wonder if Dick Vermeil had forgotten his number 1 passing option inside the red zone. But I believe that, once again, a player will benefit from a new coach. Although I still believe that Herm will be very run-oriented, it's hard to ignore a guy who had 102 catches two seasons ago, with 12 TDs, who can line up on the line ot split wide. He's got the agility of a receiver and the strength of a linebacker. A touch cover for anyone in the NFL, I think Tony "bounces back" and dominates once again.