Yardbarker: Cliff Lee

What's up with Aaron Laffey?

Wed, 23 Jul 2008 21:41:25 -0500

Tribe fans talk about next year's starting rotation and how thin it is. "We got Lee, Carmona and Laffey" they say. "After that who knows." Better put Aaron Laffey in the "who knows" category. On June 24, after holding the Giants to a run on four hits in 6 1/3 innings at the Jake, Laffey's ERA was 2.83. Five starts later, his ERA is 4.23, and he is 1-3 in those five starts. It's pretty difficult to add a run and a half to your ERA in five starts, but Laffey managed. Here's how: In the past five starts, Laffey has pitched 23 2/3 innings and allowed 22 earned runs. I don't even need my calculator to know that is darned near a 9.00 ERA. He has given up 38 hits and 12 walks during that stretch. Again, I don't need to my calculator to know that comes out to a WHIP of just over 2.00 and nearly 5 walks per 9 innings. Is his confidence rattled? Are his mechanics off? Has the league figured him out? That's hard to say sitting in my living room in suburban NY, but something is clearly out of kilter. So much so, that Tribe manager Eric Wedge wouldn't make any promises when asked whether Laffey might not be the guy to go down to Buffalo to get straightened out when Fausto Carmona comes back at the end of the week. After Laffey gave up 8 runs on 12 hits in just four innings plus in today's game in Anaheim, Wedge was non-committal when asked about the roster move coming up Friday - telling MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince: "We're not going to decide anything right now," manager Eric Wedge said. "We don't need to do anything until Friday night after the game, at the earliest. We haven't made any decisions just yet." Matt Ginter is the presumed odd-man-out, but he's put up two quality starts in two tries since joining the Tribe's rotation in what was supposed to be a cameo role. Jeremy Sowers, who has been a major disappointment this season could also go, but it is likely (at least I think so) that the Tribe - which has already farmed out Sowers this year for retooling - will want to keep him up in the hopes he can work things out on the big-league level between now and the end of September. Which brings us to the bullpen. I had planned to do a piece tonight about how the pen seems to be coming around and how it has been central to the Tribe's recent run of victories. An then today - and Tom Mastny and Jensen Lewis - happened. The duo combined to give up 6 runs over three innings in relief of Mastny, rendering moot any effort the Tribe's offense made to make a game of it. And that doesn't even count the 3 runs of Laffey's that Mastny gave up on a grand slam by Angel's catcher Jeff Mathis. In Mastny's defense, he last pitched 10 days ago. I've said it time and again this year and in the past, I don't know how Wedge expects his 4-7 relievers to be of any value whatsoever when he pitches them once every leap year or so. But still, Mastny was awful and Lewis wasn't much better. But the bullpen has been strong in the past 9 games before today - a stretch which saw the Tribe go 7-2. During that run, the pen has tossed 28 innings allowed 6 earned runs, 17 hits and 7 walks. That's an ERA of 1.92 and a WHIP of 0.86 (I'm not going to let the stats I dug up go top waste). Exclude one 4-run blowup by Juan Rincon, and the Tribe's bullpen ERA during the 9-game run is 0.64. Masa Kobayashi has 2 saves and Mastny, of all people, has the pen's lone win during the Tribe's recent hot streak. More importantly, a few key pitchers seem to be settling into roles. Raffy Perez, back firmly in the set-up role where he excelled last year, threw 7 innings in four appearances over the 9 games and did not allow a run. Kobayashi had the 2 saves and has pitched well in general since taking over the closer's role. Edward Mujica threw 4 2/3 scoreless innings during the stretch as he has begun to make a move toward the latter innings of games. The roles being established now though appear to be nothing more than an attempt to wrestle this season under control. While impressions will be made the rest of the way, it's doesn't appear as though anyone will be locking up their role for next season. In another piece for MLB.com, Castrovince reports that Wedge sees the bullpen situation as - shall we say - fluid. "The roles are wide open," Wedge said. "But I do see signs. We've got plenty of time to continue to look at these guys. They're going to have an opportunity to step up and figure out if they can play a prominent role in this thing." Still, in the same piece, Castrovince reports the Tribe doesn't think it will find its 2009 closer on its 2008 club, again quoting Wedge: "A lot would have to happen with the people we have down there now for us to not go out and get somebody," Wedge said. "Somebody would have to grab the role, really lock into it and prove that we can count on them. That's a lot to happen in two and a half months."

Morning Update: Carmona To Start Saturday

Tue, 22 Jul 2008 10:44:31 -0500

Fausto Carmona is slated to come off the Disabled List on Saturday against the Minnesota Twins. Casey Blake's interest heats up with New York Mets' GM Omar Minaya and Kelly Shoppach could be the full-time catcher to Cliff Lee even when Victor Martinez returns from an injury.

Photoshop Off-Day: The Dark Tribe

Mon, 21 Jul 2008 11:42:06 -0500

The Tribe Time Report celebrates the opening of the film, "The Dark Knight" with a little photoshop fun. Aaron Laffey stars as "The Joker" in "The Dark Tribe."

Tribe Takes Another Series

Mon, 21 Jul 2008 09:50:29 -0500

Though it didn't start off as planned, the Tribe managed to pull things together and take another series. While the Seattle Mariners are not exactly the Tampa Bay Rays (at least pre-losing streak), I'm willing to take a win whenever I can get it. There are plenty of highs and lows to discuss, so let's have at it… The goods: - Grady Sizemore coming out of the break and hitting two doubles is a good sign. If he only hits 10 home runs in the second half, some will claim that it was the "derby" that did it. I would tend to say that it will be more of a regression to the mean. It is worth mentioning the Grady has raised his batting average 13 points in 13 games since July 1st. - Shin-Soo Choo had a solid series, but it was much-needed. He had five hits for the entire month of July before going 4-for-12 with nine total bases against the Mariners. The series raised his BA for the month to .205. He will need to keep this going. - Jeremy Sowers notching his first win of the season. Though allowing four earned in six innings, Sowers is finally able to get rid of the goose egg. He now has 11 strikeouts in the last 10 innings, but also totes 10 bases on balls. Good news is that the kid has currently taken a full run and a half off of his ERA for the month. Bad news is that it is still near seven… - Cliff Lee becoming the first AL pitcher to notch 13 wins. A complete-game win that lowered his ERA to 2.29, off of four days rest following the All-Star game. 84 of his 109 pitches were for strikes, which is an amazing percentage. Here's to our ace keeping this up through the second half. The not-so goods: - Calling Aaron Laffey's outing "tough" is a complete understatement. If Jhonny Peralta fields a routine grounder in the second inning, the Tribe leaves unscathed. Instead, it turned into a five-spot. Say what you want about his bat, but his fielding cost us quite a bit here. Granted, we only put up two runs for the game, but still… - David Dellucci and Ryan Garko combined to go 0-for-10 in the series. I sense that the clock is ticking on these two. At least I hope so in Dellucci's case. - Yes, I'm glad that Asdrubal Cabrera was able to go 2-for-7, but the three strikeouts are still a bit alarming. - Only one outing, yes, but Masa Kobayashi is supposed to be the new closer and he allowed three hits and two earned runs in an inning pitched. Perhaps he's just assuming the role a bit more than we would like him to, but he's quickly approaching 50 innings on the year. This could get interesting. - The 3-10 Paul Byrd locks up against the 11-3 Ervin Santana tonight. This could be interesting… It's worth noting that Fausto Carmona is slated to return to the squad this week. Matt Ginter is the probable pitcher for tomorrow's game with Laffey going again on Wednesday. No one is on the docket for Friday's game against the Twins, so we'll see what the team decides to do. Obviously, I am not about to let myself get too excited about taking a series from the Mariners, as we are 12 games under .500. Let's revisit this team again after the LA series. Santana, Jared Weaver (hey, we have his brother!) and John Lackey will provide us a bit more of a challenge than Carlos Silva and Miguel Batista. (Less than two days 'till camp…)

Complete Lee Leads To Series Win

Sun, 20 Jul 2008 18:35:20 -0500

Cliff Lee leads the Cleveland Indians to a Series win over the Seattle Mariners with a complete game and Kelly Shoppach has a big day at the plate.

All Star Game Lives Up to Hype

Wed, 16 Jul 2008 16:08:30 -0500

The game lasted 15 innings, but the result was the same. The AL came out on top for the 10th time in 11 tries, and the game was well worth watching as compelling theater.

The Media Circus

Wed, 16 Jul 2008 09:59:58 -0500

So you're relaxing at home in your suburban Green Bay bedroom, you've got a cold one by your side, getting ready to enjoy your favorite movie and right as you press play the damn phone rings. Who in the hell is calling you while you're watching your programs?

You pick it up and it's another one of those telemarketers asking you to do some stupid poll. Last time they called, they asked questions about who you were going to vote for in the 2008 presidential election. Who the hell has time for crap like that when your beer is getting warm? Right as you're getting ready to berate the jackass on the other end of the line, he tells you what he's calling about - he wants you to answer a few questions about Brett Favre. Finally.

Now before you chalk this up as just another Green Bay-people-are-obsessed-with-Favre rant from the guys at JoeSportsFan, just know that not even we could conjure up this kind of ridiculous scenario. Low and behold, some variation of it happened over 20,000 times this weekend . According to USA Today's Game On blog, every single phone number in the Green Bay White Pages was called on Sunday night asking three questions:

1.) Do you think the Packers should trade Favre?

2.) What should happen with Brett Favre?

3.) Would you feel betrayed if Favre went to another team and won a Super Bowl?

There are actual companies dedicating resources to asking Green Bay people their opinions about Brett Favre who has shockingly decided he might want to play again. For some reason, none of that is terribly surprising. Apparently, two other questions were nixed:

4.) Would you feel betrayed if Favre went to another team and threw a horrible interception to keep that team from going to the Super Bowl?

5.) Would you have Favre's children if it were physically possible?

It's official. The guy just won't go away.

Crap that actually came from somebody's mouth

"Six years ago the General Manager of the Cleveland Indians, Mark Shapiro, traded Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew to the Montreal Expos for Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore, Lee Stevens and Cliff Lee and have all four ever paid dividends." ? Tim McCarver

Well three of the four anyway, Tim. Turns out Lee Stevens played a grand total of 53 games and batted .222 for the Indians and hasn't played in the Major since.

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"Duncan deep in the box, he holds it on the knob." - Mike Shannon

Because of Mike Shannon, Cardinals radio broadcasts are rated PG 13.
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"More than anything, I like his body" - Joe Morgan on Ryan Braun

If only Braun threw a slide-piece, we might have to get somebody to hose down Morgan.
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"He's starter material and we have a spot in the rotation" ? Tony LaRussa on Mark Mulder

Mulder's return to "starter material" lasted exactly three batters.
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"The fact is that Brett Favre absolutely and positively is upset that he's not being wooed and wanted?he won't let go. He wants to be worshipped" ? Bob Ryan, PTI

And damnit as long as Chris Berman and Peter King are alive, he will be!

MTV Rock and Jock Proves it Still Has Some Favre Left

Last year around this time, we spent a few hundred words discussing how the once glorious mid-summer classic morphed into an oversaturated, boring commercialized sports exhibition.

This year, we have similar intentions, only for a completely different event: the MTV Rock and Jock Softball Game. Actually, we made that up, but somebody out there does have serious intentions to bring back Rock and Jock. And frankly, who could blame them?

Thanks to the miracle of technology, you can really make a difference in the lives of a few very special people by signing the "Resurrect Rock N Jock Petition".

To: Viacom, MTV
Enough is enough, people. With all this celebrity game show crap that every network is rolling out over the summer, why, Dear God why, hasn't MTV resurrected the greatest mixed celebrity and athlete competition franchise in the history of this and every other alternate universe: Rock N Jock.

The formula is simple. Take B-List stars of the moment, athletes in the offseason that want to hob-knob with celebs, mix in 1-2 A-listers, a trendy musical guest, a game of softball or basketball with modified rules and TA-DAH... you have a hit show. Honestly, MTV is running so many reality shows they could fill enough teams to necessitate a 4-team tournament by themselves. Everyone gets publicity for their latest projects in a gigantic egomaniacal circle jerk and we get the joy of watching musicians trying to hit a softball and athletes with no charisma trying to be interesting.

Boy, from the looks of that excerpt, Sean Salisbury was and still is a HUGE Rock N Jock fan. We had no idea. But seriously, we can't argue against singing that petition. Not when it could potentially bring back entertainment luminaries like Hammer, Dan Cortese, Bill Bellamy and Roger McDowell pitching in a skirt.

If only the Rock N Jock softball extravaganza would have had a red carpet special back in it's existence. There's no way it would have ceased.

Foxsports Proclaims A-Rod Not a True Mustache-Wearer

The Legacy of Billy Packer

With the news that Billy Packer has left his broadcast position alongside Jim Nantz, we thought it would only be appropriate to recall one of Packer's finest moments. It's not about a contrived controversey, a small school, or ingorantly comparing Allen Iverson to a primate. No, it's a quote that helps define the man who irritated basketball fans for years with his crusty, condescending persona.

In 2007, Packer revealed he doesn't own a computer or "tape machine" in a USA Today interview:

"Not that I know everything about basketball, but I like to go into games with some unknowns. I don't want to sit with a coach and ask him what he'll do. I like to play the game as I'm watching it... 90% of my life is spent on business, not TV".

"A lot of my ideas sound off-the-wall, but my history is pretty darn good in how things work out. People laugh at me, but CBS should hire America's most sophisticated pollsters to see how people watch the tournament. It would make the Nielsen's look so out of touch, it wouldn't even be funny. I challenge Nielsen that they're so far off, I'll put up the money and pay for the survey if I'm wrong."

To recap, Billy Packer has never been wrong - and challenges the common fan opinion that he won't be missed (even though he has a wildly original and awesome Mediaspace page).

Bob Carpenter Memorial Snappy Headline

The Bobber was thinking the same thing.

Morning Update: Cliff Lee Shines on the Biggest Stage

Wed, 16 Jul 2008 09:05:52 -0500

Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore gave Cleveland Indians fans something to cheer for in a very bleak season. Lee pitched well in his two starting innings.

Bodog AL MVP Odds

Tue, 15 Jul 2008 18:52:52 -0500

On to Bodog's MVP odds. They're all listed prior to their write-ups, so I won't bother posting a table up top.

Josh Hamilton, +200
Last night certainly helped, although his odds haven't changed since Monday afternoon. The Triple Crown talk has fizzled, at least for the moment, as his average is down to .310. The MVP campaign is obviously still in full force though, as he has 25 more RBIs than anyone else in the league.

There are various concerns here. One is how his body will hold up. He played just 90 games last year, and only 26 after July 7. But the more important issue is the quality of his team. Thanks to a team ERA+ of 81, the Rangers are 7.5 games back in the West, and only fifth in the Wild Card race, six games behind Tampa. It's entirely possible that Hamilton wins the MVP, but he's got way too much going against him to be worth it at +200 in mid-July.

Justin Morneau, +400
Morneau is a former MVP, has 68 RBIs, and his team is overachieving. That is essentially his campaign at the moment. Considering the Twins' chances of making the playoffs are about +400, and it's highly unlikely he wins the award if they don't, this is certainly not a good price.

Ian Kinsler, +550
This number actually came out at +400. There is no doubt Kinsler's having a great year, hitting .337/.397/.548 with 23 steals in 24 attempts. The second baseman leads the league in VORP, at 52.4. But the MVP? Even with his first half, he hasn't received much hype at all. He runs into the same problem as Hamilton, of playing on a third place team, except Kinsler is miles behind him in terms of name recognition, public perception, and the ever-important RBIs (Kinsler has 58).

Alex Rodriguez, +750
He missed three weeks, which means his counting stats won't jump off the page at the end of the year, so the Yankees would have to make a run at the playoffs for him to have a shot. He does have a current line of .312/19/53, so it's not unreasonable to think he could end up at .310/40/115. The problem is that won't be good enough if the Yankees don't make the playoffs, and it's far from a lock if they do. He's got a shot, but it's probably more like 12-1.

Carlos Quentin, +1200
I'd say this is the best value on the board. Quentin is looking great in the HR (22) and RBI (70) categories, and his batting average isn't bad at .276 (his OBP is .375; he walks a lot, but I doubt that'll help his case too much). He has the added advantage of his team is the favorite to win their division. If he had more of a name, he'd probably be the second favorite after Hamilton.

As it stand, though, the fact that he was a relative unknown before this year will hinder his campaign. It also makes it unlikely he can sustain this pace--his PECOTA, pro-rated for 650 PAs, coming into the year was .263/17/77. Even considering that, I think we'll start hearing a lot more about him in the national media if the White Sox stay on top of the Central, and he's got a chance at winning the MVP.

Jermaine Dye, +1500
Manny Ramirez, +1500
Evan Longoria, +2000
J.D. Drew, +2000
Joe Mauer, +2000

Dye would have to catch up to Quentin--he only has 56 RBIs--to receive any serious consideration. Considering some of the years that Manny has had without ever even finishing second, he would have to have an absolutely enormous second half. Longoria has gotten a lot of attention recently, but he's still only at .275/16/53, and his team isn't exactly a lock to make the playoffs at this point. Drew is having a monster year--.302/.412/.572--but his counting stats aren't as impressive, and it's likely that his reputation precedes him with a loft of the writers. Most of Mauer's value is in his position, his defense, and his OBP, which aren't exactly in the forefront of the voters' minds.

Francisco Rodriguez, +2500
Grady Sizemore, +2500
Kevin Youkilis, +2500
Carl Crawford, +3000
Mariano Rivera, +3000
Milton Bradley, +3000
Miguel Cabrera, +5000

Did you know K-Rod has walked 26 guys in 42 innings? That certainly doesn't portend well for his ERA over the next 2.5 months. Thigpen in '90 isn't the great comparison, since he had a better ERA (1.83), but his team didn't make the playoffs (he finished 5th). In '03, when Gagne went 55/55 with three losses and a 1.20 ERA, the Dodgers missed the playoffs and he finished sixth, while winning the Cy Young. The best comparison is probably Smoltz in 2002; 55 saves, 3.25 ERA, Braves won the division by 19 games. He finished eighth.

Field, +550
The only hitters I can reasonably makes a case for here--and this is really stretching it--are Vlad, Curtis Granderson, Jim Thome, and Magglio. I guess you can throw Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay in the mix, and maybe some unlisted closers--Papelbon, Nathan, maybe Jenks. Regardless, I can't see there being any value in this. Those guys are all real longshots.

Cliff Lee's Chance at Redemption Has Been Well Worth The Wait

Tue, 15 Jul 2008 13:07:46 -0500

Cleveland Indians pitcher Cliff Lee has been on a long road to get to this point in his career. Now he gets a shot at redemption at the 2008 MLB All-Star Game.

Morning Update: Grady Taken to the Next Stage at Home Run Derby

Tue, 15 Jul 2008 09:24:17 -0500

Cleveland Indians outfielder Grady Sizemore may have been out-shined at the Home Run Derby by Josh Hamilton, but he certainly put on a show in his own way. Plus Milton Bradley has spoken out about his relationship with Eric Wedge.

Roto Reference First Half Fantasy All-Stars

Mon, 14 Jul 2008 23:32:58 -0500

*Hint* Josh Hamilton isn't just a Home Run Derby Wonder!

Actual AL Cy Young Odds

Mon, 14 Jul 2008 19:03:39 -0500

From Bodog.

Andy Pettitte, 50:1
Pettitte is actually one of the better longshots here. With 10 wins, he is only two behind Lee and Saunders. The problem is that he also has seven losses, and his ERA are over 4 (with his peripherals supporting about that level). 50:1 seems about right for him.

Cliff Lee, 9:2
I actually put Lee at exactly this price a few weeks ago. For him, not all that much had changed. Your AL All-Star starter has a good shot of being the best pitcher in the league, but the other factors that help you win a Cy Young--a good team record, a good bullpen, and a good offense--aren't exactly in his favor.

Ervin Santana, 13:2
It's interesting to see that Santana, with a higher ERA and fewer wins, has lower odds than Saunders. This makes sense, of course, since Santana has the peripherals to support his current stats, while Saunders does not. Santana is probably the third favorite at this point, and is priced accordingly.

Joe Saunders, 10:1
I would have him a little higher--probably somewhere between 12:1 and 15:1--but after factoring in juice, this makes sense. No value here.

John Danks, 20:1
Danks is actually fourth among AL pitchers in VORP, but only has seven wins. He would have to have a ridiculous second half to accumulate enough Ws to be considered.

John Lackey, 25:1
Lackey has gotten wins in six of his 11 starts, and has a 2.47 ERA. If he hadn't missed six weeks, he might be the favorite. As it stands, he has a lot of catching up to do. He's not completely out of it, but he obviously has a lot of catching up to do. Probably not a lot of value at 25:1.

Jon Lester, 20:1
Lester didn't make the All-Star team because he's only 7-3, and he's not a real Cy Young contender for the same reason. He had a nice first half, with a 3.38 ERA, but is due for some regression, as his strikeout, walk, and GB ratios are only average.

Josh Beckett, 12:1
He could stand to get some more ground balls, but Beckett has actually had a really good year, with a 107:24 K:BB ratio in 112 innings. He is probably the fifth most likely to win the award, so 12:1 makes sense.

Justin Duchscherer, 9:2
He really got screwed yesterday. He has been getting lucky all year though, with a .213 BABIP and a 4.8% HR/FB ratio. His QERA is 4.40, which is right around his PECOTA projection. He's got a shot, but he certainly doesn't deserve to be priced right with Lee and Halladay.

Mariano Rivera, 6:1
I don't really understand this at all. Why is he here and not K-Rod? I get that Mariano has a low ERA, and hasn't blown a save, but this is ridiculous. He only has 23 saves, and he has three losses. And I don't care how good his K:BB ratio is (50:4), if the Yankees don't make the playoffs, he's got no chance.

Mike Mussina, 20:1
This is about right. 11 wins and a decent ERA. Not exactly a thrilling candidacy, but he's in the mix. Mussina also might get some points for the 250 wins he recorded prior to this year. His best Cy Young finish was second, in 1999 (although it wasn't exactly close).

Roy Halladay, 5:1
I think this is too high. What's not to like? 11-6 so far, with a 2.71 ERA. Best QERA in the league, at 3.07. Best FIP, at 2.86. Most innings, with 146.1. An outrageous amount of ground balls (56%). 121:21 K:BB ratio. And a very good track record prior to this season. All that, and he's priced below Justin Duchscherer? The only problem is Toronto's offense, which isn't exactly a juggernaut. Even so, if there's value in any of these, I think it's with Halladay.

Field, 9:2
This includes Matsuzaka, Kazmir, King Felix, Gavin Floyd, and of course K-Rod. I'm not sure why some of those guys aren't listed while Lester and Danks are, but I also don't think 9:2 is particularly high for that group.

Bodog also has odds on the NL Cy Young, and the MVP in both leagues.

Actual AL Cy Young Odds

Mon, 14 Jul 2008 19:03:39 -0500

From Bodog.

Bodog also has odds on the NL Cy Young, and the MVP in both leagues.

Starting Pitchers Tabbed for All-Star Game

Mon, 14 Jul 2008 15:12:40 -0500

Ben Sheets and Cliff Lee have been named starters for Tuesday's All-Star Game, but are they the best options? Also, Carlos Marmol was named as an injury replacement, but he is undeserving of a spot ahead of several higher profile and some lower profile (and better) pitchers.