http://www.yardbarker.com/content/player/4442 Recent articles about Keyon Dooling en-us LAST SEASON The Nets went 34-48 and missed the Playoffs for the first time in 7 years. Sensing a need to re-build, they traded away the 35-year old future Hall of Famer (Kidd) for a promising 25-year old (Devin Harris). Despite having an average 91.5 pace factor (16th), they finished 25th in scoring, 25th in field goals attempted, and 25th in FG%. OFFSEASON MOVES Key Additions: Yi Jianlian, Simmons, Dooling, Najera, Hayes, B. Lopez, Douglas-Roberts, R. Anderson Key Losses: Richard Jefferson, Bostjan Nachbar, Marcus Williams, DeSagana Diop, Nenad Krstic The Nets continued their re-building process over the summer by trading away Richard Jefferson for Jianlian & Bobby Simmons. Nachbar & Krstic both bounced to go play in Russia, Diop returned to Dallas, and Williams was traded to Golden St. for a future 1st round pick. They were replaced by 3 solid veterans (Keyon Dooling, Eduardo Najera & Jarvis Hayes) and 3 promising rookies (Brook Lopez, Chris Douglas-Roberts & Ryan Anderson). ROTATION / PLAYING TIME Let's start at point, where Devin Harris is now running the show. He averaged 33.6 minutes after landing in New Jersey, so I'll bump that up to 34 for '08-09. At shooting guard, Vince Carter played nearly 40 minutes after the break and played much better with Harris in the lineup. He wants to prove that he can win without Kidd, so he should be good for 38 solid minutes every night. Keyon Dooling will be the first guard off the bench, and should get 16-20 minutes backing up both spots. At small forward, Bobby Simmons, Jarvis Hayes, Trenton Hassell & Chris Douglas-Roberts will all battle for minutes. I'm projecting 30-32 minutes for Simmons and 14-16 minutes for Hayes, while CDR & Hassell fight for the scraps. The Nets have several unproven big men capable of playing 20+ minutes, which is why I'd like to issue this warning… BE CAREFUL OF: All of their big men If the Nets could roll the mid-range shooting touch of Yi, the strength & rebounding skills of Boone, the length & low post moves of Lopez, the uber-athleticism of Williams, the mobility of Swift, the 3-point shooting of Anderson, and the hustle, IQ & intangibles of Najera all into one, they'd have perhaps the best big man in the league. But alas, those are 7 different players with their own weaknesses. Quantity over quality??? Most people have Yi Jianlian penciled in as the opening night starter at power forward. While he's got nice potential, he has yet to prove that he can be a reliable rotation player. In 53 starts last season, Boone pulled down an impressive 8.3 rebounds in just 29.1 minutes, but he's a horrible free throw shooter and doesn't block a lot of shots, so his upside is limited. Brook Lopez is a better offensive player than his brother Robin, but he shot just 46.8% from the field in college. So if you think he's going to come in and average 15 ppg as rookie, you're taking a big risk. Thanks to his freakish length and leaping ability, Sean Williams has perhaps the most fantasy potential of any of New Jersey's bigs. In 29 starts as a rookie, he swatted a whopping 1.93 shots in just 23.4 minutes of action, but his minutes will likely fall with Lopez around. Now that he's buried at the end of the bench, Stromile Swift is probably wondering what happened to his career (either that, or he doesn't care). 2nd round pick Ryan Anderson made nearly 2 threes per game last year at Cal while shooting 41% 3P. He's not a very physical player, but he could get some minutes thanks to his outside shooting. And last but not least is the grizzled vet Najera. The talented Mexican has been an impact player ever since he came into the league, and he'll be one of the leaders on this squad sporting 8 guys 25 years or younger. He'll be the Nets' most versatile & reliable big man, so he's a lock to play 20+ minutes per game. As a result, NONE of New Jersey's bigs will receive 30+ minutes (unless several guys get hurt), limiting the fantasy value of all of them. DON'T SLEEP ON: Bobby Simmons It's rare for a team to only have 2 fantasy-worthy players, so a 3rd Net should have value in '08-09. I'm expecting that man to be Bobby Simmons, a guy who will likely go undrafted in most leagues due to his poor stats from last season. If you remember his '04-05 campaign for the Clippers, Simmons played like a badass and was named the Most Improved Player of the league. He hasn't been the same since, but injuries have played a part in that. If he earns more than the 30-32 minutes that I'm projecting, then 15 points, 5 boards, 2.5 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.2 threes with decent %'s is not out of question. While none of those numbers stand out, they're solid across the board. If you need a swingman in the last round, there are worse players that you can gamble on. ROUND BY ROUND TARGETS (Where you should draft these guys in an 8-cat Roto league with 12 teams and 14 man rosters) Click on the link to find out and vote in a poll! Sun, 31 Aug 2008 09:12:19 -0500 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/316106 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/316106 LAST SEASON After going 40-42 in '06-07, the Magic improved to 52-30 under Stan Van Gundy. They lost in the 2nd Round to Detroit, but it was a definite step in the right direction. Their defense was solid and their offense was vastly improved, as their 93.4 pace factor (9th of 30) allowed them to score 104.5 points (6th) and make 9.8 threes per game (1st). OFFSEASON MOVES Key Additions: Mickael Pietrus, Anthony Johnson, Courtney Lee Key Losses: Maurice Evans, Carlos Arroyo, Keyon Dooling, Pat Garrity Orlando made a wise decision to use most of their $5.5 million midlevel exception on Pietrus. The uber-athletic swingman will do everything that Mo Evans did last year and then some. Carlos Arroyo hasn't been very consistent in the NBA, so the Magic decided to replace him with 33-year old veteran Anthony Johnson. Courtney Lee is a rookie who will battle JJ Redick for minutes at shooting guard, and both men will try to take over Dooling's role as their #1 scorer off the bench. In '02-03, Pat Garrity started 53 games and played 2,585 total minutes for Orlando, but he received under 300 total minutes in each of the past 2 seasons. His NBA career is likely over. ROTATION / PLAYING TIME You can call him Dwight Howard, D-Ho, Man-Beast, or Superman, but Ironman applies as well, because he hasn't missed a single game in 4 years. Howard played a career-high 37.7 mpg last year, which was tops among all centers. In fact, the only other centers to play 36+ minutes (Yao Ming & Chris Kaman) both missed 25+ games. Most big men aren't able to play big minutes, but Superman seems about as indestructible as they come. His backup minutes will be shared between the veteran leather-slapper Adonal Foyle and the Polish youngster Marcin Gortat. Rashard Lewis played 38 mpg (mostly at power forward), but I'm projecting that number to fall to 36-37 this season due to Tony Battie's return. Battie missed all of '07-08 after tearing his rotator cuff, but he was a key member of Orlando's rotation in the three seasons prior. At small forward, Hedo Turkoglu received a career-high 36.9 minutes of action and didn't miss a single game. Keith Bogans (26.9 mpg) started 35 games at shooting guard, but will likely come off the bench this season thanks to Pietrus. I'm currently projecting 36-38 minutes for Turkoglu, 28-30 minutes for Pietrus, and then 20-22 minutes for Bogans off the bench, which leaves about 12 extra minutes for either JJ Redick or (more likely) Courtney Lee. At point guard, Jameer Nelson played just 28.4 minutes in '07-08, but the Magic would love for him to improve so they can increase that to 30-32 this season. His primary backup will be 11-year veteran Anthony Johnson, who could get anywhere from 12-22 minutes depending on Nelson's play. DON'T SLEEP ON: Mickael Pietrus If anyone wants one of those retro Warriors jerseys with "The CITY" on the front and "PIETRUS" on the back, just let me know. I bought it a few years ago fully expecting the "French Michael Jordan" to have a breakout season. While Pietrus flashed plenty of potential as a Warrior, he never really achieved the breakout season that I expected. But fear not Magic fans, because the 26-year old is about to enter his prime. His career stats are very mediocre, but when MP gets consistent minutes and plays with confidence, he can fill up the stat sheet and be a difference maker on both ends of the floor. For example, check out his split stats from 11 games in March '08 (Golden St. went 7-4): 31.3 min, 12.1 points, 8.1 boards, 1.4 steals, .7 blocks, 1.1 threes, 47.4% FG, 36.4% 3P, 72.2% FT. His free throw shooting is a major sore spot and he's prone to mental lapses, but there aren't many guys in the league with the potential to average 1 steal, 1 block, 1 three, and 1 dunk per game. I'm guessing he won't even be drafted in most leagues, but if you want to use one of your last round picks on a guy with significant upside, I highly recommend nabbing Air France. BE CAREFUL OF: Dwight Howard I was certain the Man-Beast was going to have a breakout season in '07-08, but I wasn't expecting him to attempt the 3rd-most free throws in a season since 1990 (Shaq attempted 972 in '00-01, David Robinson attempted 925 in '93-94, and Howard attempted 897 in '07-08). As a result, I drafted him too early in a couple of leagues and my team's FT% paid the price. In Roto leagues, even if you surround him with multiple 80-90% FT guys, your team will have a tough time earning more than a couple of points in that category. As a result, I don't recommend using a Top 25 pick on Howard. There are in fact, many fantasy owners out there who won't even use a Top 50 pick (or Top 80 pick in leagues that use turnovers) on the guy, but I disagree with those people for a couple of reasons. 1) As I said earlier, the guy is an Iron Man. Sure, Yao posts better per game numbers, but when was the last time he played all 82 games? Knowing that you can rely on Howard for a full season is very comforting, and it should ease your concerns for making him your #1 center. 2) Under the right scenario, you could totally use a Top 30 pick on him and still win your league. Want an example? Let's say you have the 3rd overall pick and LeBron James (71.2% FT) falls into your lap (sweet!). In Round 2, you see that Carlos Boozer (73.8% FT) is still around at #22, so you take him. At this point, you could just decide to throw FT% out the window and grab Howard at #27. I used to not believe in "punting a category," but now I firmly believe that you can grab the Man-Beast and still win by using this strategy. Want some other players to target? -Baron Davis (75% FT). Not a very good FT% for a PG, so if he's around at #22, opt for him over Boozer. -Tony Parker (71.5% FT). Tony's shooting %'s (and threes) are like a big man's, but HE gets assists. -Tracy McGrady (68.4% FT). I usually avoid him like the plague, but he's a lot more attractive without FT%. -Ron Artest (71.9% FT). Excellent stats except for shooting %'s. Take him if T-Mac's gone. -Gerald Wallace (73.1% FT). Oodles and oodles of steals and solid all-around stats, but his FT% hurts. -Andre Iguodala (72.1% FT). Iggy is a stat-stuffer who can't make free throws. That's ok on this team. -Josh Smith (71% FT). Insane blocks, and another superb guy to team up with Howard using this strategy. -Emeka Okafor (57% FT). Howard + Okafor = Best FG% & rebound duo, but worst FT% duo. -Andrew Bogut (58.7% FT). Bogut's FT% sucks, but his big man stats are solid and he gets assists. -Shaquille O'Neal (50.3% FT). Of course Shaq belongs here because he's the main reason this strategy exists today (unless some die-hard stat geeks were playing Roto hoops in the Wilt Chamberlain era). 3) He's freakin' Superman! The sky's the limit for this kid. Would you be surprised if he had a 44 point, 30 rebound game? Me neither. Enough said. CONCLUSION: In Roto leagues, you need to be very careful of Howard's FT%, but that doesn't mean you can't use a Top 30 pick on him and still win your league! ROUND BY ROUND TARGETS (Where you should draft these guys in an 8-cat Roto league with 12 teams and 14 man rosters) (Click on the link to find out!) Sun, 10 Aug 2008 06:25:31 -0500 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/303659 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/303659 Options are dwindling for both teams and free agents as teams continue to make moves. Here is what is going on around the league today: Josh Childress has indeed left the Hawks to play in Greece. The Journal Constitution is reporting that Childress has agreed to a a three-year, fully guaranteed contract worth far more than the $20 million originally proposed. It will remain to be seen how this affects NBA free agency in the future. Any player not getting what they want can flaunt a European contract at their team and will have to be taken seriously. But, there are still many players who want to be in the NBA even if they are making far less than they could in Europe. Josh Smith, the Hawks' other big free agent, was wined and dined by the Sixers and then they signed Brand. Then, he was wined and dined by the Clippers before they got Camby. Now, the only team under the cap that could offer him more than the MLE is the Grizzlies but they are in cost cutting mode. So, it seems that Josh Smith is stuck with the Hawks unless they can work a sign and trade with someone. Sources say that the Hawks are offering Smith a six-year deal worth $60 million. The Journal Constitution is reporting that this isn't true, however and that the Hawks have never offered anything near that. The San Antonio Spurs re-signed 36 year old Kurt Thomas on Tuesday. Thomas joined the Spurs last season in the trade that sent Brent Barry and Francisco Elson. In a rather fishy move, Barry was released by the Sonics and went back to the Spurs to join new teammate Kurt Thomas. Thomas' return could put in question the return of Robert Horry and Michael Finley's to the Spurs. When the Nets acquired Keyon Dooling, Marcus Williams vowed to fight for his job as the Nets' point guard. He may be fighting for his job, but not with the Nets as they traded him to the Warriors for a future first-round pick. The Warriors are going to give Williams a chance to start along side of Monta Ellis, who is more of a shooting guard than a point. First Camby was traded to the Clippers for a second round pick and now Williams traded for a first round pick. Must be nice to be under the cap and able to pick up players for peanuts (and draft picks). The Warriors pick has plenty of strings attached, though. The pick is lottery protected for 2011. If it goes to 2012, the pick is protected 1-11. It's protected 1-10 for 2013. If they still haven't received the pick by 2013, the Nets get second-round picks in 2013 and 2015. ESPN reports that Detroit has offered to trade Chauncey Billups and Tayshaun Prince twice this off season already. The first time was to try to pry Carmelo Anthony away from Denver. The second offer was to Houston for Tracy McGrady. Both offers were rejected. With the rumors that Detroit is considering making a bid for Artest they could be making a 3rd attempt to trade Billups and Prince. There seems to be some smoke here and there may be some fire behind it. It would be interesting to see the crowd react to Ron Ron being introduced to the Palace crowd for the first time as a Piston. Talk about mixed emotions. Personally I wouldn't want Artest for anything. The guy has been a cancer and a distraction everywhere he has gone. Ryan Gomes is such a classy person. The Star Tribune reports that Gomes is participating in the Wolves' summer promotional caravan. He doesn't have a deal with the Wolves but is on their promotional tour. "I made a commitment at the end of the season to do this," Gomes said from Mankato. "They (the team) asked me if I'd like to do this and I'm a community guy, so I said yes. I don't know where I'm going to be yet. I made a commitment and stuck with it." Gomes is looking for the full MLE but chances of getting it are dwindling. It seems unlikely that the Wolves wouldn't match anything less. I would really like to have him back in Celtics Green but all the Celtics could offer is half the MLE and unless Danny has incriminating pictures of McHale, the Wolves would probably match any offer we could afford to give. At this point in his career, he is looking for some security and possibly accepting the qualifying offer and then seeing what he can get as an unrestricted free agent next season could be his best move. As hard as Gomes works, his value should only improve. Mark Bartelstein has said that several teams, including the Celtics have inquired about his client, Devean George. In his interview on WEEI, Danny said that he hasn't had any talks with George. So, either Bartelstein is floating rumors to try to get other teams to make an offer before another team snaps him up or Danny is not wanting to tip his hand. I remember Danny being interviewed on WEEI another time as the trade deadline approached when he said that the Celtics had nothing in the works and nothing even close. Four hours later, the Celtics traded for Wally Szczerbiak. So, you can't trust what an agent says or what Danny tells you for that matter. The News Herald reports that Bartelstein is also in talks with the Cavs concerning George. Now that the Celtics have signed House and Allen, Danny says that he is taking some time off. He may make another deal, or he may roll the dice with the team we have. The Celtics lost Pollard, PJ Brown, Cassell and Posey. The Celtics have 2 promising rookies who could fill in the blanks. Gabe Pruitt should be able to fill in at the Point along with House. Tony, if healthy, can replace Posey's defense. Giddens and Walker may get a chance to prove themselves. Danny may go with what we have now and then save space to pick up someone if there is a need later on. The Charlotte Observer reports that negotiations with Emeka Okafor are at an impasse. He has one more year left and if they don't agree on an extension, he can walk after next season as an unrestricted free agent. Rather than let him walk for nothing next season, the Bobcats may try to arrange a sign and trade. Some possibilities for a sign and trade swap are Shawn Marion, Anderson Varejao, Andris Biedrins, Al Harrington, and Luol Deng. Delonte West is still unsigned. The News Herald reports that the Cavs want to sign him but that they aren't close to an agreement at this point. Other teams are interested but have been scared off by his restricted tag, figuring that since the Cavs do want him, they will just match any offer made. Daniel Gibson signed a 5 year contract with the Cavs that starts at $3.7 million and West is looking for more since he is the starting PG and Gibson is the back up. Of course, if they can't reach an agreement, Delonte could just accept the Cavs' qualifying offer of $2.76 million, play out the year, and the become an unrestricted free agent next year. That could be good or bad for him. If he has a great year, he will demand even more money next season. If he continues to be nagged with little injuries and struggles, then as a restricted free agent, he may not get as much as he would now. It's a gamble that may or may not pay off. The Express News is reporting that it appears that Robert Horry's days with the Spurs are over. Big Shot Bob has won 7 rings in his 16 seasons in the league. He has said that he wants to play another season in the league but the Spurs don't seem inclined to bring him back. Unless he gets an offer from another team, he may be forced to retire. Could Big Shot Bob be the next aging veteran to come on board the Celtics? Danny loves these guys who seem to be on their last legs but who have tremendous experience and can help a team in little ways. Horry fits the profile. The Portland Trail Blazers signed first-round pick Nicolas Batum on Tuesday. Batum was actually drafted by Houston with the 25th overall pick and then traded to the Blazers for two draft picks. This brings the team's roster to 14 players. They still have not made a decision on whether to sign Petteri Koponen. They don't feel he is ready for the NBA this season, but if they don't sign him now, he will likely sign a long term contract in Europe. If they sign him, he could spend some time in the D-League and accelerate his development. The Clippers signed Golden State forward Kelenna Azubuike (8.1 ppg, 3.4 rpg) to a three-year, $9.3 million offer sheet last week and the Warriors have until Friday to match the offer, but according to sources they won't match it because they signed forward Maurice Evans to a three-year, $6.4 million deal. We are about to enter into the quiet (read completely dead) part of the season for Celtics fans. Danny is going to take some time off. He lost one free agent and brought back 2 others. He still has to deal with the Celtics 2 draft picks and possibly pick up another free agent or even make a minor trade. But keep in mind, it wasn't until the end of August that Danny signed Posey last season and so he may wait until the dust settles to make another move. Reports are that Bill Walker is working hard to come back from the knee surgery and depending on how he looks, Danny may not make another move. If ready to contribute, Walker could be the back up at the 3 that the Celtics still need. I like the kid and think he could prove to be the steal of the draft. Wed, 23 Jul 2008 09:51:04 -0500 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/294294 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/294294 After acquiring Keyon Dooling, the Nets have traded PG Marcus Williams to the Golden State Warriors for a future first round pick. The Spurs have re-signed F/C Kurt Thomas. Nets SF Bostjan Nachbar has decided to sign with Russia's Dynamo Moscow team for a reported $14.3 million over three years. Emeka Okafor may be an ex-Bobcat by the end of 2009. The Timberwolves have agreed to a multiyear deal with PG Sebastian Telfair. Atlanta Hawks free agent SF Josh Childress is strongly considering an offer to play for the Greek Olympiakos team after receiving a three-year, $20 million offer. Tue, 22 Jul 2008 19:35:38 -0500 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/294057 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/294057 The Warriors have been busy recently with the Summer League victories that they've been piling up, but in the midst of all of the 'basketball' stuff, they were able to pull off a trade that will help keep Monta Ellis playing at the two-spot. Williams, a point guard out of UCONN, was drafted in the first round at pick 22 in the 2006 NBA Draft. This is a great pickup by the Warriors, and if they become as good as the Bay Area hopes, the pick won't be as steep as it seems. Tue, 22 Jul 2008 19:35:30 -0500 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/294056 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/294056 AZ Central is reporting that Matt Barnes is scheduled to arrive in Phoenix Monday, expecting to sign a one-year veteran's minimum deal with the Suns after completing a physical. I was really hoping Danny would make an offer to Barnes as he would be a great replacement for Posey. It seems as though one free agent after another is being signed and the Celtics have yet to make a move to fill the empty spots on the bench. I just don't get Danny not having made a minimum offer to this guy already. Maybe he should give him a call real quick and make an offer. Xtra Sports has a couple of interesting rumors on their website. First is that the Celtics have approached the Lakers concerning a trade for Trevor Ariza. Scal's salary fits. I wonder if they are looking for a glue guy since Turiaf left. Along with the inquiries about Ariza, they report that the Celtics are talking to Orlando's Maurice Evans, the Warriors' Matt Barnes, and the Wolves' Ryan Gomes. Word is that Gomes is looking for a 2 year contract for the full MLE. The Celtics may offer that, but since Gomes is restricted, the Wolves will probably match. I like the idea of getting Barnes. I think he would be a great fit for the team but probably won't come cheap. Also according to Xtra Sports, rumors are flying around that the Lakers are trying to clear roster space in order to make a major trade to acquire Rasheed Wallace from Detroit or Ron Artest from Sacramento. They didn't match Turiaf's offer and that may clear the way for the trade for Artest. With the Nets deal for Dooling almost final, Marcus Williams is the odd man out and the Nets would like to trade him. They are said to be looking to package Williams and one of their other young players, such as forwards Josh Boone or Sean Williams, for a veteran. They still have eight players on their roster with two years' or less experience in the league. Maybe the Nets would like Scal back. What better player to guide their youngsters. Sean Williams and Marcus Williams would be nice additions to the Celtics. Come on, New Jersey, you need a glue guy like Scal and now he can bring championship experience (sort of) to your team. Atlanta Hawks free-agent forward Josh Childress is strongly considering a three-year, $20 million offer from Greek powerhouse Olympiakos, several league sources said Sunday night. Childress flew to Greece late Sunday and is scheduled to meet with Olympiakos officials on Monday. Childress has been frustrated with the Hawks who have refused to make a sign-and-trade deal for Childress with another team. One source reports that there's a better than a 50-50 chance he'll sign with Olympiakos. News is breaking that the Celtics have agreed to terms with two of their own free agents, Tony Allen and Eddie House. Both have agreed to 2 year deals. The Celtics used Tony's Bird rights but needed approximately half of the M LE to secure House. This pretty much eliminates the possibility of bringing Ryan Gomes back to Boston as he is seeking a deal close to the full MLE. Mon, 21 Jul 2008 09:42:39 -0500 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/293177 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/293177 Utah Jazz free agent, CJ Miles signed a four-year, $15 million offer sheet with Oklahoma City on Friday. Utah will have seven days to decide whether they want to match the offer sheet and keep him. In Oklahoma, Miles would be able to compete for a starting position, something he would not be able to do in Utah. Philadelphia 76ers General Manager Ed Stefanski phannounced on Friday that the Sixers have signed rookie Marreese Speights who was the 16th overall pick in the 2008 NBA Draft. Speights played in five games for the Sixers Summer League team in Las Vegas, averaging 18.2 points along with team-highs of 10.2 rebounds and 2.20 blocks. He is one of only three player averaging a double double in Vegas. Sounds like the Sixers have a player. Yahoo Sports (via Hoopshype) reports that Carlos Delfino is leaving the NBA to sign with Khimki Moscow. Delfino may not be the only NBA player to bolt for Europe as Basket Central (again via Hoopshype) reports that Greek team Olympiakos is courting former Celtic Ricky Davis. The Suns second round pick, Goran Dragic, will stay in Spain next season. The Suns sure are having problems with point guards ditching them. Think they would like to take back the deal that sent Rajon Rondo to Boston? The Sacbee reports that Brad Miller is determined to rebound after his third suspension for testing positive for marijuana. He will be suspended for the first 5 games of next season and will lose approximately $700,000 in salary. He is determined to get past this and get his life back in order. He told the SacBee that the lost wages don't matter nearly as much as the importance of changing his ways. We all wish Brad the best and hope that he can get past this and get his career back on track without the drugs. League sources report that the Nets and Magic are close to a sign-and-trade for combo guard Keyon Dooling. Reports are that Dooling would sign a three-year deal approximately $10 million and then be sent to the Nets for their $3.3 million trade exception that they acquired in the Jason Kidd trade. This gives the Nets 16 players under contract and the odd man out appears to be Marcus Williams. They will probably try to deal him for a draft pick or package him with another player to try to free up a roster spot. The Rocky Mountain News is reporting that restricted free agent JR Smith has not heard from any teams having interest in signing him this off season. His only offer has been the option to return to the Nuggets next season for the $3.04 million qualifying offer. This may be his best bet as he will have a chance to increase his value over the season and become an unrestricted free agent next season. Matt Barnes is a player who definitely would be a good fit for the Celtics to help replace what they lost with James Posey. The Washington Post reports that the word is that teams are going to wait him out and get him at a good price. The Wizards, who have only around $1.5 million left under the luxury tax threshold, are interested but since Barnes made $3 million last season, he isn't going to jump at an offer that his half as much. The Celtics could split their MLE between Barnes and another player and would be an attractive destination because they can offer him a chance at a ring. Teams may be trying to wait him out and get him cheaper, but like Posey, some team out there will give him what he wants. Darius Miles continues his hopes to return to the NBA. He might be a possibility for the Celtics. The Mavs are seriously considering signing him as well. He has several benefits. One, he appears to have matured considerably since his troubled early days in the league. Second, he has worked very hard to come back from what was considered to be a career ending injury so he is motivated and has a good work ethic. Third, and best of all for a team like the Celtics who are over the Lux Tax, he will come cheap. He is only looking for a 1 year minimum contract and will play very hard to make good on that contract to prove he deserves more next season. He looks like another of those low risk, high reward signings. This is a great story. Greg Norman is doing very well in the British Open. He is on his honeymoon after his marriage to tennis great Chris Evert 3 weeks ago. He is 53 years old and he is right at the top of the pack in the British Open. His last victory was 10 years ago in Australia at the Greg Norman Holden International. He hasn't been this close to the lead at the halfway point of a major since he was leading the '96 Masters. I know by now you are thinking why is this on a Celtic blog's updates? Well, Greg Norman used to live not far from me when I lived in the Palm Beach area and is a big Celtics fan. You would often see him out and about wearing a Celtics hat. I always wear a Celtics tee shirt and one day, he stopped me in a store and we talked about the Celtics for awhile. He is a very nice person and I am pulling for him. Us Celtics fans have to stick together. Maybe it was the Celtics 17th championship after all these years that has energized him in the Open. Who knows? Sat, 19 Jul 2008 09:15:49 -0500 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/292509 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/292509 Rod Thorn is about to fill his most glaring vacancy, and now all he have to do is wait for Orlando to do some clerical work. The Nets have an agreement in principle to make a sign-and-trade deal for free agent Keyon Dooling, a combo guard they have pursued for years, and he'll fit right in as a reserve for starters Vince Carter and Devin Harris. Don't worry Marcus Williams, I still believe in you! Sat, 19 Jul 2008 06:40:40 -0500 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/292485 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/292485 Over the weekend James Posey's agent, Marc Bartelstein, said that there should be something contract-wise by Monday. Posey was present at the preview of the Celtics Championship DVD but was very non-committal concerning his situation. He watched the DVD while sitting at the same table as Danny Ainge but there didn't seem to be anything new in the negotiations. Marc Spears reports that the Celtics seem willing to give Posey the full mid-level exception but only for 2 years rather than the four years that Posey is looking for. This contradicts early reports that Danny initially offered 3 years. Posey didn't mention any specific teams who were interested but said that playing for a contender was important to him, and that other members of the current Celtics team have talked to him trying to convince him to stay. We had hoped to get a decision today but instead just got more talk. Posey still says that Boston is his number 1 choice so hopefully Danny will give enough to get it done. Eddie House was also at the premiere and said that returning to the Celtics was his first choice. I hope he returns as he would be a good back up for both Ray and Rondo. He had a great team spirit. He never complained when benched during the playoffs and he came up big when he did get the call. House would like a multi-year contract but the Celtics are exploring trying to sign a veteran to a 1 year veteran's minimum contract as the reimburses teams a portion of contracts signed by veterans and that would help with the luxury tax the team will be paying. But, to win another title, the Celtics can't nickel and dime the players who helped them win the first one. Chemistry is one of the things that will help them to repeat. Bringing in too many new players, especially if they aren't an upgrade, will hinder rather than help them to repeat. According to the Orlando Sentinel, the Magic are talking with Jason Williams concerning their need for a back up point guard. They have reportedly also offered Keyon Dooling a 2 year deal at about 1.9 million a year but Dooling has called the offer ridiculous and suggested that it was an attempt at trying to devalue him and said that he was insulted by the offer. Florida Today reports that the Magic have had serious talks with the Grizzlies' point guard Javaris Crittenton showing that perhaps they have abandoned any hope of keeping Dooling on the team. The Miami Herald reports that after saying that he would take a physical for the Heat on Monday, Tyronn Lue decided against it and didn't show up for the physical. The Heat were prepared to make him an offer and Lue would have stepped into the starting point guard position there, but they will now look elsewhere. Lue is still said to be deciding between the Celtics and the Suns. The Heat have Marcus Banks on their roster, but apparently don't expect him to be able to handle the starting PG role as they are looking elsewhere to fill the position. The Arizona Republic reports that the Suns major competition for Lue is the Celtics who have reportedly offered Lue a one-year veteran minimum deal worth $1.26 million. Shaquille O'Neal has called Lue, who is his friend and former teammate, to make a recruiting pitch for the Suns, but Lue also is a longtime friend of Celtics' star Kevin Garnett. Lue stays at Garnett's Malibu home each summer for workouts. The Heat were attractive because he would be given the starting role, and with both Boston and the Suns he will be a back up to either Rajon Rondo or Steve Nash. Both teams are offering a veteran's minimum one year deal. With the Heat out of the picture, Lue is back to deciding between the Celtics and the Suns (or between Shaq and KG as the case may be). Billy Ron Artest is still making waves according to the Rocky Mountain News. With trade rumors swirling around Artest, he was asked if he would have interest in being dealt to the Nuggets. His answer was a definitive no. "I cannot play in Denver because they question my drive to finish my career off strong and not embarrass my family,'' Artest wrote Sunday night. "Any player wants to win a championship is low risk. That's not even an option to be a Nugget, they let me know how they felt about me already." Kings owner, Joe Maloof, has stated that Artest needs to settle down a bit and stop making statements that don't make any sense and praising him for what he has done in Sacramento. I can see that as damage control so as not to hurt his trade value. If teams know what kind of a nut case he still is, they might not trade for him. I still say I hope he goes to the Lakers as they deserve each other. The Miami Heat are reported also to have interest in Artest and would be willing to part with Shawn Marion, whose $17.1 million deal also is expiring. As will be the case with the Lakers and most other suitors, the question will be whether the Kings can include forward Kenny Thomas and his deal that includes two more seasons and approximately $18 million. According to ESPN, the NBA may be in for more trouble this summer. Citing court documents and phone records, it was reported that disgraced ref Tim Donaghy placed 134 calls to fellow referee Scott Foster between October 2006 and April 2007, which was the period during which he has confessed to betting on games or passing on game information to gamblers. According to a story published Monday on Fox News' Web site, the majority of the phone calls lasted no more than two minutes and occurred before and after games Donaghy officiated and on which he admits wagering. First there were the reports that came out during the Finals about playoff games that were fixed and now this. I have a feeling that there is more that will come out on this and David Stern isn't out of the woods yet. The Rockets made a couple of minor moves on Monday. They signed this season's first-round pick Donté Greene five minutes before their first game in the Las Vegas NBA Summer League. Greene responded to the new contract with 40 points, making 12 of 20 shots and 11 of 12 free throws, to lead the Rockets to a 100-97 win over the Phoenix Suns. The Rockets also released center Loren Woods from his contract as Woods is looking to sign in Europe. The Rockets GM also said to expect a trade sometime this month. The Rockets are looking to extend a one year veteran's minimum contract to 42 year old Dikembe Mutombo , who hasn't decided whether to take the offer or retire. Trail Blazers general manager Kevin Pritchard has a tough decision to make in the coming months: Sign up-and-coming point guard Petteri Koponen, or keep an open roster spot entering the regular season. On Monday, after Koponen scored 19 points and made 4-of-6 three pointers in the Summer League opener, his decision became even tougher. If the Blazers fail to sign him, he is likely to sign a long term contract in Europe, making his return to the Blazers unlikely for years to come. Pritchard said he values the opportunity to have roster flexibility entering the season, which he would have if he elects to keep Koponen overseas. However, there is also the danger of losing Koponen for several years if the Finn signs a long-term deal with a European team. The Nets don't want to lose free agent Bostjan Nachbar altogether and are trying to explore sign-and-trade possibilities for him. They also are looking into that route for Nenad Krstic, but there remains a chance the restricted free-agent big man will return. Their rookie center Brook Lopez impressed in Orlando and that may be hastening a move toward a trade. I wonder if they would like Brian Scalabrine back? Tue, 15 Jul 2008 10:23:31 -0500 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/290673 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/290673 Everything is on hold till Mr. Big Game decides who he wants to take the MLE from. So lets spend some time thinking about who might fill out the roster. We have pretty sizable holes at backup point guard and center (gee, that sounds familiar, don't we say that every year?). It looks like Chad Ford has updated his Free Agent rankings (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad page=FreeAgents-080629). Seems like a good time to review some names: Unrestricted Free Agent Point Guards: 5. Shaun Livingston: He has amazing talent, but will he ever recover from that horrific knee injury he suffered in 2007? With the Clippers using all of their money on Baron Davis, someone might try to roll the dice. 6. Keyon Dooling, Magic: In a market starved for point guards, Dooling may be the best guy left on the board. He can be an excellent defender, has good size for his position and is coming off a solid season. He won't break the bank, and he's not a bad backup either. 8. Carlos Arroyo, Magic: Arroyo isn't a sexy name, but the market has a shortage of point guards, and Arroyo was more than adequate as a... Thu, 10 Jul 2008 08:51:32 -0500 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/288472 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/288472 A Daily Babble Production As was discussed (index.php?option=com_content task=view id=3549 Itemid=260) yesterday in this space, the Chris Duhon signing fills a need for the hated Knickerbockers but isn't likely on its own to instigate any ground-breaking changes in the results for the team in the Sizable Apple. So our attention turns to an Eastern contender that seems to be quite bothered by losing out on what apparently became a sweepstakes of sorts for the former Duke guard's services. The very beginnings of desperation are beginning to seep into the air around the Orlando Magic with regard to their point-guard situation. Though he wrote that the Magic were looking for a back-up, the Orlando Sentinel's Brian Schmitz reported (http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/sports_magic/2008/07/magic-adjust-ga.html) that the team was quite high on Duhon and frustrated that he went elsewhere -- and that re-signing Keyon Dooling has become a priority there. Given that Duhon has started more than half the games he has played in his four-year career and that the team knew he was likely to command starter money, it seems time to wonder if the Magic are finally headed toward throwing in the towel on Jameer Nelson after four years of his own. Read More.. (index.php?option=com_content task=view id=3553... Mon, 07 Jul 2008 16:23:08 -0500 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/286878 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/286878 Sebastian Telfair, Tyronn Lue ,Jannero Pargo, Carlos Arroyo, Eddie House, Anthony Johnson and Anthony Carter are the other PG's Heat are heard to be talking about. For Me i would like either Arroyo or Dooling. The Miami Heat, continuing to search for point guard help, has ''expressed great interest'' in Orlando Magic unrestricted free agent and former Heat backup Keyon Dooling, agent Rob Pelinka said Thursday. Pelinka declined to say if Miami has made an offer but said the sides ``will continue to have a dialogue.'' The Heat hopes to acquire a point guard either through trade or with part of its midlevel exception, which is expected to be in the range of $5.8 million to $6 million. The Heat also has inquired about several other veteran free agent point guards, including Sebastian Telfair, Tyronn Lue and Jannero Pargo. Other veteran free agent point guards available include Carlos Arroyo, Eddie House, Anthony Johnson and Anthony Carter. Dooling, 28, averaged 8.1 points, 1.8 assists, 1.4 rebounds and 18.5 minutes for Orlando last season, and his .468 shooting percentage was higher than his .417 career average. He spent the 2004-05 season with the Heat, providing defense and energy off the bench and averaging 5.2 points and 1.8 assists in 74 games. He signed a three-year, $11 million deal with Orlando in the summer of 2005. A graduate of Fort Lauderdale Dillard High, Dooling has started 36 of 465 career games. At other positions, the Heat has had conversations about former University of Miami small forward James Jones and Memphis power forward/center Kwame Brown Sun, 06 Jul 2008 02:18:53 -0500 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/286165 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/286165 The offer the Goldenstate Warriors, have made to Elton Brand has an interesting ripple effect on the rest of NBA's free agents. Monta Ellis is in a nice position to hold the team hostage should Elton Brand decide to resign elsewhere rumors are he'd be looking for upwards of 10 million per season and the Goldenstate Warriors having just lost out on Baron Davis and Brand, would be face a very tough decision with their young star. Then turn to Corey Maggette he wants to play in Orlando but they have only a mid level exception to offer and are looking to add both a PG and a wing, right now both their targets: Corey Maggette, Chris Duhon are holding out for the whole thing. Then the Philadelphia Seventy Sixers are quietly poised to cause "Offer Sheet" mayhem as they like both the Josh's from the Atlanta Hawks and will offer Josh Smith a 5 year deal over the 42 million that the Hawks have offered him and could go as high as 5 years worth as much as 67 million. This would put alot of pressure on the Hawks as they already have the large contracts of Joe Johnson and Mike Bibby, but supposing they match. The Sixers will just turn their attention to Josh Childress their second target and begin the process again albeit with reduced figures, my guess is one of these Josh's will be a Philadelphia 76er next season. The Knicks are not so quietly looking for a PG, having already offered Chris Duhon slightly more than half their 5.5 mid level veteran exception, and should Duhon sign elsewhere they woulld immediatly turn their attention to others like: Sebastian Telfair, Tyronn Lue, Jannero Pargo and Keyon Dooling all the while embattled former star Stephon Marbury waits in the wings having not benn bought out and currently not part of the teams plans. Stephon Marbury has something to prove and when he is bought out, it will be very interestng to see where he ends up. Last if this drama isn't enough Emeka Okafor, Ben Gordon, Luol Deng's situation haven't played out yet at all Chicago is in tough as they just have too many guards and players like Kirk Hinrich and Shawn Marion are already being shopped by their teams. Thu, 03 Jul 2008 15:51:40 -0500 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/285609 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/285609 As always, there are more reports and other goodies at http://www.nuggets1.blogspot.com For the 15th straight time, the Orlando Magic defeated the Denver Nuggets in Orlando, by the score of 109-98, The Nuggets win streak ended at 3 games. But the Nuggets are 6-2 in their last eight games. This week, Magic Coach Stan Van Gundy challenged superstar Center Dwight Howard, by far the Man in Orlando, to get more rebounds and defensive stops, and he came out from the tunnel locked and loaded in this game, as neither Kenyon Martin nor Marcus Camby could at first contend with his start of the game rim shaking early dunks and powerful rebounds. Howard, who will be the starting center for the East in the all-star game, was playing his 300th straight game in this one. Of those 300 games, Howard started in 299 of them. He would have started in the 300th one, but he was late to a game once when he got stuck in a traffic jam. People might wonder why I have insisted from the start of this season that Nene is essential for the Nuggets to win in the playoffs. The reason is shown clearly by how the Nuggets were unable to adequately contain Howard in this game. Nene has the bulk necessary to use up valuable real estate in the paint, which in turn reduces the frequency that players such as Howard will be able to drive to the hoop for easy dunks and layups. And Nene gets rebounds in certain situations where other Nuggets won't get the rebound. Nene generally "stays home" right near the hoop, whereas Martin and Camby both frequently roam, even out to the perimeter, where of course they miss rebounding opportunities. In this game, the Magic destroyed the Nuggets in both offensive and defensive rebounding, and as a result ended up with a huge shots on goal advantage, 43 shots on goal versus just 33 for the Nuggets. This was despite the fact that the Magic are a poor rebounding team and are particularly poor in offensive rebounding. As a grim result of the 51-35 margin for the Magic in rebounding, they buried the Nuggets with 2nd chance points. For similar reasons, they also buried the Nuggets in points in the paint, 56-30. Camby and Howard are battling to get the top rebounder in the NBA certification this year. Camby came in very slightly ahead, but in this game, Howard made 24 rebounds, while Camby made 8. So Howard overtook Camby for now; he is now getting 14.6 boards per game, whereas Camby is averaging 14.4. Furthermore, Howard is in the all-star game, while Camby is not, because Camby, while a defensive genius and one of the all time defensive stars, is even now, this late in his career, still too unpolished offensively to qualify as an all-star center. Offensively, this was a textbook example of how an unstructured offense is not good enough in tough road games against quality opposition. Although the on the fly offense was good enough to allow the Nuggets to hang with the Magic in the first 30 minutes of the game, it faltered in the last 18 minutes and, if the Nuggets' offense were a product, you would have to return it to the store as a defect after this failure. Dwight Howard was able to shut down almost everything Iverson, Melo, and company wanted to do in the paint, and the Nuggets, as always, had no plan B ready. And in any event Iverson was out of gas, and when Iverson is out of gas, the entire Nuggets' offense is out of gas. I'll say it again, the Nuggets become very easy to defend when they are in situations where some offensive structure is needed, but they don't have any structure available. The Nuggets are all too often sitting ducks to be hit by runs like the 18-6 run that Orlando went on late in the 3rd quarter. Howard, although he rebounded the heck out the ball all game long, did rapidly cool down offensively after Kenyon Martin and Marcus Camby kicked into full defensive gear. Martin had enough physically to partially contain Howard, in the scoring dimension, but the Magic were able to score a lot of in the paint points anyway, something which in my opinion would have been more limited had Nene played this game. The Nuggets started out the game with 4/16 shooting. But fortunately, they didn't fall behind to any extent as a result of that. The Nuggets led 28-26 at the end of the 1st quarter. The Nuggets continued to hold their own in the 2nd quarter, and it was tied at 48 at the half. It was nice to see Karl vigorously contesting an offensive foul call against Najera in the quarter. But by late in the 1st half, the Nuggets were using too much valuable energy arguing calls too much with the refs, and Martin got a technical at one point. The Magic came out running in the 2nd half, but Kenyon Martin remained right on target and the Nuggets were actually leading, 57-56, with 8 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. And they were up 63-58 half way through the 3rd, as Iverson made 2/3 free throws off a Jameer Nelson foul on a three attempt that probably was not actually a foul, and Marcus Camby swished a long two jump shot. But a couple of Magic threes and a Rashard Lewis layup with about 4 minutes left in the 3rd put the Magic ahead 66-65, and they would never trail again. In this game there was a different Rashard Lewis from the one seen in Denver; he slashed to the hoop enough to mix up his shots perfectly. Lewis was 5/6 at the hoop, 1/3 on 2-point midrange jumpers, and 2/5 on threes. The Magic blitzed the Nuggets 18-6 late in the 3rd, so Orlando won the crucial 3rd quarter 28-21, and were leading 76-69 at the end of the period. Half way through the 4th, Hedo Turkoglu buried a long three, and the Magic now had a commanding lead, 91-80. Turkoglu, in fact went on a tear throughout the fourth, and scored 12 points in the period. Orlando made a total of 3 threes in the final quarter to turn the lights out on the Nuggets. JR Smith made 4 threes in the final quarter, and scored 14 points in total, but the Nuggets offense was hopelessly disorganized and tired out overall. Anthony was consistently effective and efficient, but there was no chance he could "take over the game" and win it because he is a forward and forwards have to have a little help from a good offensive plan in order to get the ball enough to be able to take over a game. As for Iverson, he had a great 1st half, but ran out of gas and went mostly cold in the 2nd half. For the second straight night, Martin was great offensively, not only scoring but also in passing. Carmelo Anthony answered my plea for more 3-point attempts and more made threes. He was 3/5 from downtown. J.R. Smith was 4/9 from there, and these two Nuggets just about matched the entire Magic squad in 3-point shooting, as they were 7/19 overall whereas the Magic were 8/22. But I noticed something negative about Anthony in this game, which is that he takes too many shots where he rises up from a crouch dribble and fires away in one uninterrupted motion. His accuracy would be even better if he always spotted up, and avoided going from dribbling to shooting in one motion unless the shot clock is going to zero. It is difficult for even an outstanding athlete such as Anthony to get the right balance needed to make a shot following a long and complex movement of a large number of body muscles. And you don't get a bonus point if you increase the degree of difficulty over a spot up jump shot, like that. I expect that he will grow out of that kind of lower percentage shot as he gets older. For the second straight night, Kleiza, Carter, and Najera were unproductive and largely out of the flow of the Nuggets offense. The odds of the same 3 players playing poorly 2 nights in a row in a decently run offense are very slim, so this tells you that the Nuggets' offense is vulnerable to failing to make adequate use of certain players in certain situations. More specifically, the Nuggets have too many relatively selfish players to be able to safely run an unstructured, on the fly offense. Because those relatively selfish players, even though they are outstanding players, will sometimes by default make certain other players irrelevant, and that makes the team relatively easy to defend. The solution is either to get less selfish players, or to get new coaches who are able to make sure that players such as Kleiza, Carter, and Najera are seldom if ever left completely out of the flow. PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE NUGGETS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE Chucky Atkins: He was diagnosed with a right groin/abdominal strain (Sports Hernia) on 1/9 and underwent successful surgery on 1/11. He is expected to be sidelined a minimum of eight weeks. Atkins is out until at least late March. With any luck, he will be back in the Nuggets lineup by early April. Nene: underwent successful surgery to remove a testicular tumor on 1/14. A timeline for his return is still unknown. He is out until at least the first of March, but could easily be out for the entire rest of the season. Steven Hunter: He missed this game, because of soreness and inflammation in his right knee. MAGIC PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE Tony Battie: The arthroscopic surgery on his partially torn rotator cuff (part of the shoulder) will sideline him for the entire season. ALERT STATUS PROBLEMS As of February 14, 2008 The Nuggets are under a YELLOW ALERT, on account of the following problems. INJURIES & SUSPENSIONS 1. Chucky Atkins injury 18 points 2. Nene illness 14 points 3. Steven Hunter injury 4 points SEVERE AND UNEXPECTED PLAYER PERFORMANCE PROBLEMS There are none at this time: 0 points. BAD OR INADEQUATE COACHING 1. George Karl has completely benched one or more players who should not be benched due to his incorrect calculation of the benefits and costs of that player, his hatred of the player, and/or his having the ulterior motive of forcing the player off the team. The problem points would be the points you would have if the player were injured. No one is currently completely benched who should not be: 0 points. 2. One or more players are partially benched; their minutes are being artificially limited due to abstract and subjective factors that the Denver Coaches believe are more important than performance on the court. J.R. Smith was partially benched: 5 points. 3. George Karl over relies on his starters and won't play the non-starters enough: 0-12 Points. The severity varies depending on the circumstances, mainly Karl's beliefs and moods, and whether the other team is playing well enough to take advantage of the Nuggets playing with not enough breathers, with too many fouls, and so forth. The current points reported are for the use, or should I say the misuse, of the reserves for the most recent games, with the most weight being given to the game being reported on here. The bad use of reserves score for this game is 0 points. 4. The Nuggets have extreme inconsistency and a truly excessive number of turnovers because they have neither a system nor even a partial system on offense. The damage caused by this would be up to 20 points, except that Iverson reduces the damage. In broad terms, the team has failed to decide whether it wants Melo alone, Iverson alone, Melo and Iverson together, or neither of them to be firstly responsible for scoring enough points to keep the Nuggets in games. If it were neither, I call the name of that strategy the "share the wealth" strategy. More specifically, the Nuggets lack enough tried and tested offensive plays that they can run game after game, perfecting them as they go, and having everyone automatically on the same page for those plays. Lack of an adequate number of offensive plays and schemes: 8 Points INTENSITY, HUSTLE, AND HEART 1. The Nugget's intensity, hustle and heart are lacking: 0 Points. It's not anywhere near as bad as some fans sometime think it is. TOTAL PROBLEM POINTS: 49, which constitutes YELLOW ALERT. YELLOW ALERT (40-54): Minor damage is occurring to the season. The entire season is under medium threat. Beating quality teams is much more difficult and will be pretty rare. About 1/2 of all wins against good teams will now be losses. Beating mid-level teams is a little more difficult. About 1/4 of games that would be wins against mid-level teams will now be losses. Beating low level teams is still relatively easy, but no longer almost a sure bet. A good team has become in between a good team and a mid-level team when it is under this alert. The damage description assumes that Nuggets opponents are in a GREY ALERT or better status. When the Nuggets play teams that are in yellow alert or worse, the damage they suffer from being in a significant alert status will be substantially reduced. In other words, opponents who are themselves in significant alert situations will obviously be more beatable, even when the Nuggets are in a significant alert situation. OBSERVATIONS ON THE ALERT STATUS The Magic are piling up wins and one of the reasons is that they have had few injuries and other kinds of player not available situations. And they have a coach who has been around the block a time or two, and knows how to put a coordinated team on the hardwood. The Magic enjoyed a triple advantage in this game: home court, extra rest, and lower alert status. J.R. Smith should be playing a minimum of 25 minutes a game, and his value is about 20 points, so him playing only 5 minutes is a partial benching and is worth about 5 points in alert status terms. Both Atkins and Nene are definitely going to be out for many more weeks and either one of them or both of them could easily be out for the entire rest of the season. And George Karl is definitely not going to pull a few offensive set plays out of a hat any time soon. Therefore, the Nuggets, unless they make a trade and/or acquire a diamond in the rough player, are doomed to be in ORANGE ALERT or YELLOW ALERT for most or all of the rest of the season, which endangers their chances of making the playoffs. Hollinger at ESPN has the odds that the Nuggets will make the playoffs at about 65% right now though, which is a big improvement from just a week ago, when the odds were about 50%. But the 65% chance is dumb with respect to the indefinite unavailability of Nene and Atkins, so the real odds could be less, around 50-55%. . The mid January losses to the Bobcats and the Hawks, and the close calls at home against the Wolves and the Hawks in January, in games that should have and probably would have been relatively easy wins had the alert status been green, grey, or even yellow, illustrate the usefulness and accuracy of the alert system. When you reach ORANGE ALERT and especially RED ALERT, you start losing a substantial number of games that you would normally win. It's that simple, and there is little anyone can do about it. RESERVE WATCH Number of Players Who Played at Least 6 Minutes: Nuggets 8 Magic 9 Number of Players Who Played at Least 10 Minutes: Nuggets 8 Magic 8 Nuggets Non-Starters Points: 20 Magic Non-Starters Points: 28 Nuggets Non-Starters Rebounds: 9 Magic Non-Starters Rebounds: 9 Nuggets Non-Starters Assists: 3 Magic Non-Starters Assists: 5 OBSERVATIONS ON HOW THE RESERVES WERE USED AND PLAYED 8 players for 10 or more is conservative, or lean and mean, if you will, but it is overly conservative if you don't add a wildcard player who plays at least 6 minutes but less than 10 minutes. That wildcard player might be in the zone, maybe even in the best zone of his career, in which case you keep him in beyond the 10 minutes and probably win the game. Unfortunately, Karl does not seem to understand that, in order to increase the odds of winning when you are the underdog, you have to be willing and able to take modest risks, and playing a 9th player for at least 6 minutes is a perfect example of a modest risk you have to take if you are going to pull an upset. But in this game, as you can see, it was the heavily favored team that took the modest additional risk with a possible heavy reward. It was the team that didn't have to play the 9th man to win that did, while the team that did have to play a 9th man to win, the Nuggets, did not. Specifically, how do you know for sure that Yakhouba Diawara would not have brought enough defense and made 3-point shots to the game to possibly turn it into an upset win for the Nuggets? You don't know, and that's the point. You will never know, because the opportunity to have Diawara play was passed by just so that other Nuggets could get another 6-8 minutes, distributed between them, added on to their already large playing times. The reserve watch feature is under development, and it will be gradually expanded. The complications involved explain why there are no formal statistics anywhere on the internet on the subject of how much non-starters contribute to different teams, and also why coaches are not compared statistically the way players are. There are a lot of variables that come into the use of reserves that interfere with the objective of judging their use. Statisticians call this "statistical noise," and if you have a substantial amount of it, then what you are trying to do with your statistics becomes very difficult or next to impossible. GEORGE KARL CONFIDENCE IN HIS TEAM RATING (Scale of 0 to 10) 3: He's hiding under his seat on the sidelines PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED You can tell how well every player played at a glance. Of the advanced statistics I have seen on the internet, this one seems to have the best balance between offense and defense. Many other advanced statistics are biased in favor of good defenders, and do not reflect the heavy importance of offense in basketball. Here is the formula for the ESPN rating of a player: Points + Rebounds + 1.4*Assists + Steals + 1.4*Blocks - .7*Turnovers + # of Field Goals Made +1/2*# of 3-pointers Made - .8*# of Missed Field Goals - .8*# of Missed Free Throws + .25 *# of Free Throws Made All players on each team who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The number after "game," is how well the player did in this game, whereas the number after "season" is that player's overall average for the entire season. NUGGETS-MAGIC PLAYER RATINGS Carmelo Anthony: Game 40.9 Season 39.4 Kenyon Martin: Game 34.9 Season 22.3 Allen Iverson: Game 28.8 Season 40.9 Marcus Camby: Game 27.0 Season 33.0 J.R. Smith: Game 20.1 Season 14.5 Linas Kleiza: Game 9.4 Season 19.5 Anthony Carter: Game 8.7 Season 20.9 Eduardo Najera: Game 6.0 Season 13.1 Chucky Atkins: Did Not Play-Injury Nene: Did Not Play-Illness Steven Hunter: Did Not Play-Injury Yakhouba Diawara: Did Not Play-Coach's Decision Von Wafer: Did Not Play-Coach's Decision MAGIC PLAYER RATINGS Dwight Howard: Game 51.7 Season 41.9 Rashard Lewis: Game 41.0 Season 28.7 Brian Cook: Game 29.0 Season 7.3 Hedo Turkoglu: Game 24.4 Season 32.9 Jameer Nelson: Game 23.7 Season 22.8 Keyon Dooling: Game 11.1 Season 12.5 Adonal Foyle: Game 3.0 Season 5.6 Keith Bogans: Game 2.6 Season 15.2 Maurice Evans: Game 1.8 Season 12.7 NOTE: these stats do not correct for the big differences in playing times. Players with small minutes would get a higher rating if they had more minutes. OBSERVATIONS ON THE PLAYER RATINGS: Kenyon Martin played extremely well in both Miami and Orlando this week, whereas Allen Iverson went through a little downtime in both games. J.R. Smith was only half as productive in Orlando as he was the night before in Miami, but that was still good enough to be 1/3 better than his seasonal normal. Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis were huge for the Magic, as was Brian Cook, who played what will definitely end up as one of his very best games of the season. Kleiza, Carter, and Najera were largely no shows for the Nuggets. On the other hand, the heavy weight of the Nuggets' problems, shortcomings, and game situational disadvantages prevented the Foyle, Bogans and Evans no shows from creating a substantial risk that the Magic would lose this game. REAL PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED The Real Player Rating reflects reality better than the gross player rating, since it washes out differences in playing times among the players. The straight up player rankings are obviously heavily affected by how many playing minutes the various players get. With many teams, you can rely on the coach to give his various players roughly the playing time that makes the most sense for his team. Unfortunately, some coaches bring other factors besides actual performance into their rotation decisions. Therefore, it makes good sense to introduce a new and extremely important statistic that Nuggets 1 calls the Real Per Minute Player Rating. As the name implies, this is the gross ESPN player rating divided by the number of minutes. The statistic is called Real Player Rating for short. This statistic allows anyone to see whether or not players who play only a small number of minutes are doing better than their low gross rating will indicate. You can spot diamond in the rough players who are not getting all the respect and playing time due to them. At the same time, it will allow anyone to see whether players with a lot of minutes are playing worse than, as well as, or better than their gross rating shows. In summary, the Real Player Rating allows the reader, at a glance, to see exactly how well each player is doing without regard to playing time, which is subject to coaching error and subjective and less important factors such as a player's personality. The Real Player Rating provides the real truth-pure knowledge not available anywhere else. SCALE FOR THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS 1.80 More Amazing Happens, but only certain players can ever fly this high 1.60 1.79 Superstar Plus-Above Normal Even For Michael Jordan 1.40 1.60 Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game 1.20 1.40 Star Plus-Spectacular Performance 1.05 1.20 Star Performance 0.90 1.05 Outstanding Game 0.80 0.90 Very Good Game 0.70 0.80 Good Game 0.60 0.70 Mediocre Game 0.50 0.60 Poor Game 0.40 0.50 Very Poor Game 0.25 0.40 Bad Game-Near Disaster Less 0.25 Total Disaster NUGGETS-HEAT REAL PLAYER RATINGS All players who played 5 minutes or more are included. Any player who played only 5-9 minutes is noted. 1. Dwight Howard, Orl 1.231 2. Carmelo Anthony, Den 1.136 3. Brian Cook, Orl 1.000 4. Rashard Lewis, Orl 0.976 5. Hedo Turkoglu, Orl 0.976 6. J.R. Smith, Den 0.957 7. Kenyon Martin, Den 0.943 8. Marcus Camby, Den 0.730 9. Jameer Nelson, Orl 0.697 10. Allen Iverson, Den 0.655 11. Adonal Foyle, Orl 0.500 12. Keyon Dooling, Orl 0.463 13. Eduardo Najera, Den 0.400 14. Anthony Carter, Den 0.378 15. Linas Kleiza, Den 0.348 16. Keith Bogans, Orl 0.118 17. Maurice Evans, Orl 0.100 OBSERVATIONS ON THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS The same guys who did the best in Miami the night before were the best here for the Nuggets: Anthony, Smith, and Martin. Carmelo Anthony was the only Nuggets star; Smith and Martin were outstanding. For the Magic, Howard was star-plus. Three Magic players were outstanding: Cook, Lewis, and Turkoglu. The Magic had 4 of the 7 players who were outstanding or better. Camby and Iverson were both short of their usual high level of court work. And, as mentioned above, the Nuggets had 3 non-factors taking up court space without enough productivity: Kleiza, Carter, and Najera, not counting, as always, what they did as far as defending is concerned. Of the three, Najera was the only one who did a substantial amount of high quality defending. So the Nuggets had 3 players who were poor or worse, but the Magic, if you count Foyle who played 6 minutes, had 4 of their own. The Nuggets and the Magic are roughly similar teams in that there are a handful of truly outstanding stars and there is vulnerability that several players will be non-factors in any given game. This is a big reason why forecasters are so confident that both the Nuggets and the Magic will be relatively easy to beat in the playoffs. NUGGET'S PLUS—MINUS This tells you how the score changed while a player was on the court. All Nuggets who played at least 10 minutes are shown. Anthony Carter: +1 Carmelo Anthony: -5 Eduardo Najera: -5 Marcus Camby: -7 Linas Kleiza: -8 Allen Iverson: -9 Kenyon Martin: -10 J.R. Smith: -12 OBSERVATIONS ON PLUS—MINUS Smith made only 1 turnover and 2 fouls, but the Magic did quite well when he was out there. Paradoxically, Carter contributed much less than Smith, but the Nuggets fared much better when he was out there compared with Smith. One reason was that Carter was a better defender than Smith was in this game. Another reason was sheer chance. NUGGETS MADE WHAT? All Nuggets who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The order is from lowest to highest in real player rating. Turnovers: Total 16, Team 1, Anthony 4, Camby 2, Carter 1, Iverson 4, Kleiza 0, Martin 2, Najera 1, Smith 1 Personal Fouls: Total 23, Anthony 6, Camby 2, Carter 0, Iverson 2, Kleiza 3, Martin 4, Najera 4, Smith 2 Linas Kleiza played 27 minutes and was 1/4 and 0/1 on 3's for 2 points, and he made 6 rebounds and 2 assists. Anthony Carter played 23 minutes and was 1/5 and 0/2 on 3's for 2 points, and he made 3 assists, 2 steals, 2 rebounds, and 1 block. Eduardo Najera played 15 minutes and was 0/1, 0/1 on 3's, and 2/2 from the line for 2 points, and he made 3 steals and 2 rebounds. Allen Iverson played virtually the whole game, 44 minutes, and was 5/16, 0/1 on 3's, and 11/13 from the line for 21 points, and he made 7 assists, 1 steal, 1 block, and 1 rebound. Marcus Camby played 37 minutes and was 3/6 for 6 points, and he made 8 rebounds, 4 blocks, 4 steals, and 3 assists. Kenyon Martin played 37 minutes and was 8/13 and 1/2 from the line for 17 points, and he made 9 rebounds, 4 steals, 1 block, and 1 assist. J.R. Smith played 21 minutes and was 6/11, 4/9 on 3's, and 0/2 from the line for 16 points, and he made 1 assist and 1 rebound. Carmelo Anthony played 36 minutes, and was 9/19, 3/5 on 3's, and 11/14 from the line for 32 points, and he made 6 rebounds, 1 block, and 1 assist. NEXT UP The next game will be Tuesday, February 19 in Denver to play the Celtics at 7 pm mountain time. Neither the Nuggets nor the Celtics will be playing on back to back nights. As always, there are more reports and other goodies at http://www.nuggets1.blogspot.com Sat, 16 Feb 2008 01:40:10 -0500 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/145101 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/145101 The internet is dominated by short and very short articles, but my full game reports are extremely long, averaging about 4500 words these days. I know some people will never have the time to read articles that long. Short articles on extremely important topics are great for fans without a lot of time to check out and to give their opinion on. So from now on, as time permits, I will extract very important parts of game reports and post them as separate reports. Here are the real player ratings for the Nuggets-Magic game. For an explanation of the Real Player Rating, go to: http://nuggets1reference.blogspot.com/2007/12/real-player-ratings.html SCALE FOR THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS 1.60 More Rare Superstar Plus-Above Normal Even For Michael Jordan 1.40 1.60 Superstar Performance Plus-A Michael Jordan Type Game 1.20 1.40 Spectacular Performance 1.05 1.20 Star Performance 0.90 1.05 Outstanding Game 0.80 0.90 Very Good Game 0.70 0.80 Good Game 0.60 0.70 Mediocre Game 0.50 0.60 Poor Game 0.40 0.50 Very Poor Game 0.25 0.40 Bad Game-Near Disaster Less 0.25 Total Disaster NUGGETS-MAGIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS All players who played 5 minutes or more are included. Any player who played only 5-9 minutes is noted. 1. Linas Kleiza, Den 1.419 2. Carmelo Anthony, Den 1.315 3. Anthony Carter, Den 1.247 4. Maurice Evans, Orl 1.015 5. Allen Iverson, Den 0.988 6. Keyon Dooling, Orl 0.950 7. Dwight Howard, Orl 0.932 8. Keith Bogans, Orl 0.884 9. Jameer Nelson, Orl 0.831 10. Rashard Lewis, Orl 0.786 11. Marcus Camby, Den 0.738 12. Kenyon Martin, Den 0.621 13. Carlos Arroyo, Orl 0.460 14. Adonal Foyle, Orl 0.460 15. Hedo Turkoglu, Orl 0.373 16. J.R. Smith, Den 0.140…Smith played only 5 minutes. 17. Eduardo Najera, Den 0.086 OBSERVATIONS ON THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS In the friendly confines of the Pepsi Center in Denver, Kleiza and Carter played two of the best games of their respective careers. Carmelo Anthony was spectacular, while Iverson was merely outstanding in this one. Dwight Howard is a better player than what he showed in this game, and Rashard Lewis should in theory be a better player than what he showed. Camby and Martin were a little off but it didn't mean much, mostly because of the Turkoglu disaster. The Najera disaster was the first one in many, many moons. Tue, 15 Jan 2008 15:10:14 -0500 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/72808 http://www.yardbarker.com/author/article/72808