Yardbarker: Alfonso Soriano

Trades Of The Decade: A-Rod For Soriano

Thu, 26 Nov 2009 14:47:03 -0500

You might remember that the Red Sox were very nearly the ones to acquire Alex Rodriguez when the Rangers made him available after the 2003 season. According to USA Today, the reigning MVP would have gone to Boston, Manny Ramirez would have gone to Texas and the Red Sox would have dealt Nomar Garciaparra to the White Sox. The blockbuster Red Sox-Rangers deal fell through when the MLBPA stepped in, providing the Yankees with the opportunity to acquire Rodriguez. That's exactly what Br...

What the Hell Were You Thinking? Alfonso Soriano Edition

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 14:10:00 -0500

*Over the next couple of weeks, Jorge Says No! will take an in depth look at some of the worst contracts in baseball. We'll evaluate why the player was signed, what went wrong, and future implications of the contract. Behind every bone head decision, there has to be a reason for it...right?*Why Sign Soriano: The Cubs were coming off a tremendously disappointing season in 2006 in which they lost 96 games. The pressure was on GM Jim Hendry to turn the Cubs into contenders immediately and he...

Will Paying $800k for Rudy Jaramillo Help Alfonso Soriano?

Mon, 19 Oct 2009 15:38:00 -0500

Jon Heyman is reporting this:Highly respected hitting guru Rudy Jaramillo is in serious talks with the Chicago Cubs about becoming their new hitting coach, and it appears likely that the sides will reach an agreement for Jaramillo to join the Cubs soon, SI.com has learned...It is believed he will receive a multiyear deal for about $800,000 per year. Dave Duncan and Mike Maddux are thought to currently be the highest paid coaches in baseball at about $750,000.Hmm. That's a lot of cash for ...

Soriano, Getting His Wheels Fixed

Sun, 13 Sep 2009 20:21:36 -0500

For those of you who didn't believe Alfonso Soriano played with a knee injury this year or suggest he faked it after the fact to explain his bad performance, he is having surgery on Tuesday.That is some elaborate ruse he's got going.

Alfonso Soriano's Future

Sun, 13 Sep 2009 17:24:18 -0500

Normal 0 0 1 280 1601 13 3 1966 11.1282 0 0 0 It was announced earlier that Chicago Cubs outfielder Alfonso Soriano will undergo season-ending knee surgery to clean up some loose fragments. Soriano had been hitting .241/.303/.423 on the season over 117 games. He hit just 20 home runs (he had 29 in 2008 over 109 games) with 55 RBI and 9 SB. After three consecutive injury-plagued seasons (he played a respectable 135 games in 2007), Soriano's ...

What The Hell Happened with Alfonso Soriano

Sun, 06 Sep 2009 14:20:31 -0500

I wish I could take as good a look at Soriano as shawn did not long ago, but I don’t have the database to do such a thing. I’m also more interested in how he performed in April compared to the rest of the season. Soriano got off to a really good start this year. Through the first 19 games of the season Soriano was putting up MVP-caliber numbers. After the Cubs game on April 28th, Soriano was hitting .313/.396/.650. He had 7 home runs and 3 stolen bases in 5 attempts. Soriano was ...

Four Months Too Late, Soriano Will Be Scoped: Cubs vs. Mets Preview, Saturday 9/5, 12:10 CT

Sat, 05 Sep 2009 10:30:18 -0500

by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP Maybe if you'd been scoped in May, you would have caught this ball. Alfonso. View full size photo uploaded September 5, 2009 Finally -- more than four months after it happened -- the Cubs and Alfonso Soriano are admitting that something's wrong with his knee: Alfonso Soriano said he will have arthroscopic surgery on his left knee later this month after manager Lou Piniella shut him ...

Cubs Grow A Pair, Bench Soriano

Fri, 04 Sep 2009 18:32:40 -0500

Maybe the Cubs read TCR afterall...

After Dr. Hecht pleaded with the Cubs to liberally use the DL and get Alfonso Soriano off the field, they announced he's been shut down indefinitely to rest his knee. Piniella says Soriano was agreeable to the decision. Yes, one of the five worst players in baseball this year(with meaningful at-bats), is okay that you sit him. Well phew, I'd hate it if he was upset.

I'd applaud the Cubs for the move if this was July, but now it's just desperation and an offseason talking point.

In roster move news, Bobby Scales has been called up and Derrek Lee is still in Chicago for the birth of their second child. Fuku, Theriot, Bradley, Ramirez, Hoffpauir, Baker, Soto, Fuld and Z are taking on the Mets as we speak.

About That Alfonso Soriano Drop…

Fri, 04 Sep 2009 12:54:53 -0500

Alfonso Soriano is having a dismal year. Sori wrapped that dismalness up in a nice, neat package Thursday against the White Sox, going 0-4 with 3 Ks and committing a fielding gaffe that had fans all over America muttering the cursed name of Brant Brown under their breaths. It is, however, not fair to compare Soriano’s [...]

BDD: Did Soriano make up for Defensive Miscues?

Sun, 30 Aug 2009 13:10:00 -0500

In my latest at BDD, I look at Alfonso Soriano's performance from Friday's game, and dig deeper to find out if he made up for defensive miscues like the AP box score proposes.Check it out:I was reading through the box scores in the Seattle Times this morning, and I ran across this summation of the Cubs/Mets game last night:"Alfonso Soriano's first home run since July 29, a three-run shot in the eighth inning, made up for three miscues in the outfield and gave Cubs manager Lou...

At Last, The Truth About Alfonso Soriano: Cubs vs. Mets Preview, Sunday 8/30, 1:20 CT

Sun, 30 Aug 2009 11:00:12 -0500

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP Write your own caption. Browse more photos » The information about Alfonso Soriano buried in one paragraph of this Sun-Times article today absolutely floored me: Soriano injured the knee in April when he hit the outfield wall going after a ball. He has had treatment for months without complaining, but his mobility defensively and running have become increasingl...

The Cubs Need Alfonso Soriano: Cubs vs. Dodgers Preview, Sunday 8/23, 3:10 CT

Sun, 23 Aug 2009 12:00:15 -0500

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP The Cubs need Soriano to hit like this -- this was his game-winning grand slam vs. Houston on July 27. Browse more photos » I figured that headline would get your attention. Much as we are all down on Alfonso Soriano right now -- and Lou says Sam Fuld may get more playing time in left field -- there is no doubt that when Soriano hits, the Cubs win. Look at these n...

Soriano by the Pitches

Wed, 05 Aug 2009 01:23:41 -0500

Hoping to understand Alfonso Soriano's hot and cold streaks this year, I turned to the incomparable Fan Graphs to break down his present and historical success against different pitches. The results suggest that Soriano is losing the skill that made him one of the more feared hitters in the game, but that he might have found a method to compensate for this loss. Below is a chart showing the percentage of fastballs Soriano has seen each year since 2005, with 2009 broken down per month. It also shows his ranking among hitters seeing the fewest fastballs, his "runs above average" number on fastballs, (wFastball) and how high he ranks among all hitters, and his overall OPS. (As in, not specific to fastballs) The most important thing to notice here is his wFB rank.

Date Fastball% FB% Rank wFastball wFB Rank
OPS 2005 47.9 147/147 27.6 15/147 .821

2006

54.1 150/159 23.7 25/159 .911 2007 54 150/161 23.3 27/161 .897 2008 53.2 134/145 17.9 38/145 .876 April 2009
45.9 196/197 3.3 55/197
.965

May 2009

43 185/185 3.6 60/185 .657 June 2009
49.1 180/184 2.4 72/184 .585 July 2009
44.8 190/190 .7 112/190 .992 August 2009
36.7
179/190
-.6 156/190 .220

You probably have noticed a couple of striking trends going on here. First, Soriano has progressively moved from being one of the most effective hitters in baseball against the fastball to being quite pedestrian. Second, pitchers have not noticed and adapted to this change: They contiue to avoid throwing fastballs to Soriano as if he were the same hitter he was in 2005. He's not.

So how do we explain Soriano's April and July, when he hit like the hitter for whom the Cubs offered that premium contract?

Finding that answer requres looking at Soriano's results swinging at sliders.

Date Slider %
SL % Rank
wSlider
wSL Rank
OPS

2005

26.6 1/147
-6.9 140/147 .821 2006 21.3
9/158 -2.9 119/159 .911 2007 20.2 12/161 -7.9 154/161 .897 2008 22.9 5/145 -2.1 92/145 .876 April 2009
22.7 13/197 2.5
15/197 .965 May 2009
26.4 5/185
-2.4 167/185 .657
June 2009
24.3 11/184 -5.4 183/184 .585 July 2009
25.6 6/190
3.9
4/190 .992 August 2009
43.4 5/190 -.8 166/175

.220

It makes sense that if pitchers fear Soriano's ability to hit the fastball, they would throw him an inordinate number of sliders, and indeed the table indicates Soriano consistently sees among the most sliders in the game. Throughout his career Soriano has proven to be one of the weaker hitters against sliders.

This potentially could be a toxic combination: A fastball hitter who no longer can hit fastballs, and still doesn't see any fastballs to boot. But then look at the two months this year that Soriano has hit: April and July. The numbers indicate that Soriano's output isn't due to hitting fastballs with the authority to which he is accustomed; instead he's hitting sliders in a way that he previously did not. Well.

Of course, other factors might be at work as well, but if so I have yet to find an obvious candidate. Such marked changes do not appear when looking at Soriano's results against other pitch types. Neither does plate discipline seem to be the issue. Soriano is both swinging at fewer pitches outside of the strikezone this year, and making more contact when he does swing - both at pitches inside and out of the zone, and it shows no meaningful fluctuation from month to month in 2009. His BABIP shows severe fluctuations from month to month, but that appears to be driven by corresponding changes in his line-drive percentage, so there's nothing unusual there.

Assuming that these stats do reveal a truth about the real world (I know, I know), there are several questions to consider going forward. Most obvious, what is the cause behind Soriano's diminish returns against fastballs? Is it that he now has a "slider speed bat"? Is it a matter of approach at the plate, where he has stopped guessing fastball in order to better hit the breaking stuff? The latter can be fixed, the former, not so much. Looking at how consistent the downward trend is, my hunch is that it's the former, a slow erosion in the speed of his bat. If it's the former, and Soriano is losing some quickness in the swing, will we see him move away from his preference for heavy bats? And will he be able to compensate by consistently hitting sliders with the results found in April and July? Then, there are questions concerning how pitchers resond. At what point will pitchers adjust to the fact that Soriano does not hit fastballs with the authority he once did, and adjust their pitch selection? There may be a lot riding on these questions.

Of Soriano, Causation And Correlation

Wed, 29 Jul 2009 22:08:26 -0500

Some seem to believe that Alfonso Soriano broke out of his slump because he was moved from the leadoff spot to the No. 6 spot in the order, pointing to his numbers since the Fourth of July: .358, with five home runs, 16 RBI and 10 runs in 68 at-bats.That's pretty darn good, indeed. But is it out of line with other Soriano hot streaks the last two seasons?Not at all:April 14 - May 12, 2007: .378 (31 of 82) with 4 homers, 8 RBI and 15 runsMay 24 - June 8, 2007: .426 (29 of 68) with 6 homers...

Soriano, Post-Apocalyptic Move Down In Order

Tue, 28 Jul 2009 10:00:53 -0500

July 4th - the day Alfonso Soriano first appeared to hit sixth in the lineup this season (and coincidentally the same day America celebrates it's freedom from tyranny and oppression) -was a good day. Since then, though, how has our favorite bunny-hopping left fielder fared with the bat? Let's take a look... From July 4 to July 27 (18 games: 15 hitting sixth, two hitting fifth and once hitting third): Soriano has managed to pile together a .366/.408/.592/.999 with 4 HR, 13 RBI, and 4 ...