Yardbarker: Gavin Floyd

Mid Season Report

Thu, 17 Jul 2008 23:54:07 -0500

The first half of the 2008 Major League Baseball season has been full of surprises, from the Tigers to the Rays to the Padres to the Braves. Most surprising of all, at least to the Phillies faithful, is that at the All Star break the Phillies were in first place atop the National League East. The Phillies are currently a half a game ahead of the Mets and one a half games up on the Marlins. Lets go through the majors and recap the season so far. AL East Perhaps the biggest story in the majors this year is the surprising play of the Tampa Bay Rays, who at the break were just half a game behind the first place Red Sox, and that's with a seven game losing streak. The Rays have been bolstered by one of the most talented young lineups in the majors in years, as well as some timely defense and a great, young rotation led by ace Scott Kazmir. They are definitely the Cinderella, the darlings of the 2008 season, much to the chagrin to their division rivals the Red Sox. Boston fans are upset that some of the media focus and the limelight has been diverted from their beloved Sox. The reigning champs continue to be one of the best teams in baseball, despite losing pitcher Curt Schilling for the year (and perhaps for good) and a decline in production from slugger David Ortiz (including a stint on the disabled list). It looks like this could be the first time in years that the New York Yankees won't make the playoffs. They currently sit six games back of Boston and it just looks like there is too much talent in Tampa and Boston for the Yanks to make up enough ground. That being said, I am loathe to ever count the Yankees out of anything. Red Sox win division. If it wasn't for the Rays, the debacle in the AL Central would be the biggest story of the season. The Tigers, whom I picked to win the World Series, are a disappointing .500 on the season. Even more surprising, the Indians are in last place, 12 games under .500. The Chicago White Sox are sitting pretty atop the Central at 14 games over .500, led by 10 game winner, and former Phillie, Gavin Floyd. Erratic closer Bobby Jenks, despite being on the DL, has 18 saves with a 1.95 ERA. On offense, the White Sox have a tandem of heavy hitting outfielders in Jermaine Dye and Carlos Quentin. I have to admit, I'm not overly impressed by the White Sox. In large part, I think they have overachieved so far this season. I think they will come back to earth, which will leave an opening for the Minnesota Twins to step in and take the division. The Twins, led by first baseman Justin Morneau, DH Jason Kubel, and catcher Joe Mauer, are right on the tail of the White Sox, just a game and a half back, and with star pitcher Francisco Liriano waiting in the wings of AAA, the Twins are poised to move into the post Santana era. Twins win the division. AL West Until the Texas Rangers find someone who can pitch (Vicente Padilla currently leads the team in wins with 10), the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are the prohibitive favorites to win the division for years to come. The Rangers can hit, led by the top individual story of the year Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler and Milton Bradley, but their pitching is a joke. They boast a rotation of Kevin Millwood, Padilla, Jamey Wright and Kason Gabbard. Until they can get at least one pitcher, they could have all the offense in the world, they still won't be able to compete with Los Angeles. The Angels' pitching rotation, which boasts John Lackey, Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders and Jered Weaver, not to mention closer Francisco Rodriguez who is on pace to shatter the single season saves record, is arguably the best in the majors. Their offense, while not being the power heavy lineup that Texas or Boston has, plays small ball like no other team in the majors. The obvious offensive leader is Vladimir Guerrero, accompanied by Torii Hunter. But the offense works so well because of intelligent baseball guy like Chone Figgins, Howie Kendrick, and Garret Anderson. The Oakland Athletics have basically traded themselves out of contention and the Seattle Mariners have the worst record in baseball. Needless to say, Angels win the division. I think the Rays win the AL Wild card this year. They are too talented to fall behind the likes of the White Sox or Rangers. In the end however, the Red Sox have too much experience and skill to be taken down. They beat the Angels to go on to the World Series. NL West Many commentators are calling this the NL Worst, and it's hard to argue with that. After starting out red hot, division leading Arizona is now one game below .500. That's right. The division leader has a losing record. Need I say more? The reigning NL Champion Colorado Rockies are fourth in the division with a record of 39-57, topped only by the San Diego Padres, an incomprehensible 37-58. The Dodgers are one game back of the Diamondbacks, trailed by the San Francisco Giants in third place. This division is a crapshoot at this point, but the Diamondbacks' pitching, led by Brandon Webb and Dan Haren is just too good and the offense is not going to continue to struggle in the mighty fashion it has over the past month or so. With up and coming stars like Mark Reynolds, Conor Jackson and Chris Young, the Diamondbacks are going to eventually right their ship. Arizona wins the division. NL Central This is the best division in baseball. The Cubs are tied with the Angels for the best record in baseball. Four and a half games behind them are the Cardinals, with the Brewers just a half game behind them. All three of these teams are going to be better in the second half. The Cubs traded for Rich Harden last week, and the Brewers added reigning AL Cy Young Award winner CC Sabathia. The Cardinals are getting ready for the return of Adam Wainwright and former Cy Young Chris Carpenter. Both pitchers are aces on almost any other team in the majors. The Cubs and Brewers already have bona fide aces on their teams in Carlos Zambrano and Ben Sheets, respectively. This is, without a doubt, the toughest division in baseball in some time. I think the Cubs are ultimately the most complete team in the league, and certainly the division. Now let me just say, here and now, there is no way Ryan Dempster continues to pitch this well. He just isn't this good. He will come back down to earth. But even with The Dumpster coming back to reality, the Cubs are bolstered by some serviceable pitching in Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis, in addition to Zambrano and Harden. On offense, the Cubs' lineup reads like it's very own All Star roster, led by Derek Lee, Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, and Geovany Soto. Cubs win the division. NL East The Phillies came into today with a half game lead over the Mets. The Marlins sit just one game behind the Mets. It is a division up for grabs to say the least. The Marlins boast a talented, young roster rivaled by only Tampa Bay and Arizona. Led by Hanley Ramirez, Mike Jacobs, Dan Uggla and Josh Willingham, they have an offense that puts the in a position to win every night. That being said, their pitching is thin, with Ricky Nolasco leading the team with 10 wins and a 3.70 ERA. The Braves are most likely looking to scrap this year and go into rebuilding mood, if only temporarily. First baseman Mark Teixeira is a free agent at the end of this year and chances are that the Braves are going to move him before the trade deadline. Their pitching is pretty banged up, and old. John Smoltz, Tom Glavine and Mike Hampton are all currently on the disabled list. Not to mention that they are six and a half games out of first place. The Mets pose the biggest threat to the Phillies' playoff hopes. Winners of nine straight coming into the break, the Mets are batting .320 as a team during that time. They also only gave up a total of 19 runs over the same span. They are hot, no doubt, led by Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran, and Fernando Tatis. But therein lies the problem for the Mets. They have been winning in large part as a result of the contributions of usual bench players like Tatis, Endy Chavez, and Damion Easley. The Mets' pitching is also suspect after you get past Johan Santana and John Maine, neither of whom have been stellar this season. After having a impressive season last year, Oliver Perez is 6-5 with a 4.44 ERA. His record is somewhat deceiving, as he has been wildly inconsistent this year. Pedro Martinez continues to battle being really old. Originally set to return this week, his next start is being skipped. I just don't think the Mets have the talent to overcome a Phils team with a much more potent offense and what could end up being a more stable pitching rotation. The Phillies acquired Joe Blanton from the Athletics Thursday, and while Blanton has not had much of a year so far this season (5-12, 4.96 ERA), he has show some real talent and a change of location could be all he needs to break out. More importantly, the addition of Blanton means that Adam Eaton is out of the starting rotation. Brett Myers is progressing nicely in AAA and is set to return to face the Mets on July 23rd. JA Happ threw a no hitter today in his minor league start and it is only a matter of time before he is brought up to the major leagues for good. The biggest cause for concern for the Mets is that the Phils' struggles have in large part been due to a lack of offense. This coming from one of the most offensively talented teams in the league. Jimmy Rollins, Chasey Utley and Geoff Jenkins are eventually going to turn things around. Ryan Howard continues to lead the league in home runs and RBIs. Pat Burrell is going to eclipse his usual 30 home runs and 100 RBIs. And that's without the possible addition of another bat, like Matt Holliday or Jason Bay. I say this with the caveat that I generally have no faith in the Phillies in ever winning anything, and at the risk of tempting fate, I pick the Phillies to win the division. I pick the Brewers to win the NL Wild Card this year. I'm going to be very cliche and pick the Cubs to win the NL Pennant over the Brewers. I think unless the Phillies add a serious starting pitcher, ala Erik Bedard, they are not going to be able to compete with the Brewers in the playoffs. That will bring us to the ESPN's ultimate dream, a Red Sox Cubs World Series. Bristol could fawn all over the lovable losers from Chicago and Boston. Seriously though, just thinking about it makes me want to throw up. Boston wins, again. (Just threw up again) Should be a very exciting second half. Continue to check out Hot Stove Philly as we bring you all the latest scores, trades, rumors, and general sports drama.

MLB Busts of the Week - Week 15

Wed, 16 Jul 2008 07:35:19 -0500

Which fantasy studs dropped the ball last week? And which "sleepers" fell short of their hyped billing? Screaming Sports' Phil Yoon runs down an eight-player list of fantasy bombs.

Actual AL Cy Young Odds

Mon, 14 Jul 2008 19:03:39 -0500

From Bodog.

Andy Pettitte, 50:1
Pettitte is actually one of the better longshots here. With 10 wins, he is only two behind Lee and Saunders. The problem is that he also has seven losses, and his ERA are over 4 (with his peripherals supporting about that level). 50:1 seems about right for him.

Cliff Lee, 9:2
I actually put Lee at exactly this price a few weeks ago. For him, not all that much had changed. Your AL All-Star starter has a good shot of being the best pitcher in the league, but the other factors that help you win a Cy Young--a good team record, a good bullpen, and a good offense--aren't exactly in his favor.

Ervin Santana, 13:2
It's interesting to see that Santana, with a higher ERA and fewer wins, has lower odds than Saunders. This makes sense, of course, since Santana has the peripherals to support his current stats, while Saunders does not. Santana is probably the third favorite at this point, and is priced accordingly.

Joe Saunders, 10:1
I would have him a little higher--probably somewhere between 12:1 and 15:1--but after factoring in juice, this makes sense. No value here.

John Danks, 20:1
Danks is actually fourth among AL pitchers in VORP, but only has seven wins. He would have to have a ridiculous second half to accumulate enough Ws to be considered.

John Lackey, 25:1
Lackey has gotten wins in six of his 11 starts, and has a 2.47 ERA. If he hadn't missed six weeks, he might be the favorite. As it stands, he has a lot of catching up to do. He's not completely out of it, but he obviously has a lot of catching up to do. Probably not a lot of value at 25:1.

Jon Lester, 20:1
Lester didn't make the All-Star team because he's only 7-3, and he's not a real Cy Young contender for the same reason. He had a nice first half, with a 3.38 ERA, but is due for some regression, as his strikeout, walk, and GB ratios are only average.

Josh Beckett, 12:1
He could stand to get some more ground balls, but Beckett has actually had a really good year, with a 107:24 K:BB ratio in 112 innings. He is probably the fifth most likely to win the award, so 12:1 makes sense.

Justin Duchscherer, 9:2
He really got screwed yesterday. He has been getting lucky all year though, with a .213 BABIP and a 4.8% HR/FB ratio. His QERA is 4.40, which is right around his PECOTA projection. He's got a shot, but he certainly doesn't deserve to be priced right with Lee and Halladay.

Mariano Rivera, 6:1
I don't really understand this at all. Why is he here and not K-Rod? I get that Mariano has a low ERA, and hasn't blown a save, but this is ridiculous. He only has 23 saves, and he has three losses. And I don't care how good his K:BB ratio is (50:4), if the Yankees don't make the playoffs, he's got no chance.

Mike Mussina, 20:1
This is about right. 11 wins and a decent ERA. Not exactly a thrilling candidacy, but he's in the mix. Mussina also might get some points for the 250 wins he recorded prior to this year. His best Cy Young finish was second, in 1999 (although it wasn't exactly close).

Roy Halladay, 5:1
I think this is too high. What's not to like? 11-6 so far, with a 2.71 ERA. Best QERA in the league, at 3.07. Best FIP, at 2.86. Most innings, with 146.1. An outrageous amount of ground balls (56%). 121:21 K:BB ratio. And a very good track record prior to this season. All that, and he's priced below Justin Duchscherer? The only problem is Toronto's offense, which isn't exactly a juggernaut. Even so, if there's value in any of these, I think it's with Halladay.

Field, 9:2
This includes Matsuzaka, Kazmir, King Felix, Gavin Floyd, and of course K-Rod. I'm not sure why some of those guys aren't listed while Lester and Danks are, but I also don't think 9:2 is particularly high for that group.

Bodog also has odds on the NL Cy Young, and the MVP in both leagues.

MLB Fantasy Minute - Week 14

Tue, 08 Jul 2008 06:31:49 -0500

Screaming Sports' Phil Yoon breaks out his famed MLB Fantasy Minute and breaks down the MLB's top five stories. Low batting average does not mean low fantasy production. Dodgers youngsters are making their case. And is K-Rod a fantasy MVP? Mr. Yoon has all if it covered and much more.

Breaking Down The Wagerline Numbers: June

Mon, 07 Jul 2008 23:34:05 -0500

I did this for April/May, and thought it was worth doing again. This time the discrepancies we'll see are based more on actual results, rather than preseason perceptions.

I'm skipping right past the average percentages, and straight to the adjusted ones. The line on the game explains about 63% of the variation of which team the public is going to bet on, so any unadjusted list is just going to include lots of bad pitchers on one end, and studs on the other.

First, June's most undervalued starters; the guys who have gotten significantly less public backing than we'd expect from their game lines (min. 5 June starts):

Bedard's reputation has taken an extremely sharp downturn; I guess that's what happens when you get traded to Seattle. A year ago he struck out 15 Rangers in one game, and was on his way to putting together 5/6 of a Cy Young campaign before getting injured. At the beginning of last month, he was 4-4 with a 4.47 ERA. That drop in the perception of him caused the above gap, and he's actually been quite good in his last five starts (1.82 ERA). Of course, with that offense behind him, the Mariners are only 3-2 in those games.

Some of these are pretty standard; Harang and Jimenez are pitchers who have been significantly better than their record would indicate. Billingsley is 8-7 now, but that's because he's won his las four starts. It's unlikely there will be value in betting on him, and his 9.3 K/9, for long, so enjoy it while it last, until people catch on.

Joba is a surprise here. It's possible that he is so overhyped that pretty much everybody realizes it, and they forget that he's actually pretty damn good. He needs to get the walks down, but in 35 innings as a starter, he's struck out 37 and allowed just one home run.

It's not entirely clear why Hamels was undervalued, as the ace of a team with one of the best records in baseball. I suppose he was only 5-4 with a 3.73 ERA through the first two months, but that's not exactly awful. I guess that's kind of the point, though.

Here are the most overvalued, based on the opposite criteria:

Despite allowing 12 homers and striking out just 24 in his first 59.1 innings, Byrd had a 4.10 ERA through the first two months. People saw right through that, and they've been rewarded, as he has a 7.85 ERA and a stellar 15:11 K:HR ratio since. I would advise any GMs considering trading for him to ignore the previous two sentences, and instead recall this dominance.

Saunders is a good candidate to be high on this list again in July; he's 12-4 with a 3.04 ERA, yet his FIP is 4.50, barely better than the 4.92 PECOTA had him at coming into the year. The two other Angels are in the same boat, if to a lesser extent, as their records aren't nearly as gaudy, and their ERAs aren't as unsustainably low.

There's not much more to be said about Floyd; 6.0 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 40% GB%. His ERA is one of the more impressive flukes of the first half.

Now, the most underappreciated teams:

On June 1, these five teams were a combined 116-171, good for an impressive .404 W%. Obviously, not many people were all that interested in betting on them at that point. They've slightly improved since, winning at a .428 clip, but not by much.

Finally, the most overrated teams:

Again, no surprises here. The Angels are way ahead of the pack; that'll happen when you're 10 games over .500 despite outscoring your opponents by only five runs in the first two months.

The Cubs and Red Sox are no strangers to 'overrated' lists, and the hot starts of the White Sox and Cardinals caused them to be overvalued by the general public. Notable in their absence are the Yankees. That's partially because they're in third place, but they also don't seem to have any particular pitchers that the public gets extremely excited about.

A team to watch for in the coming months is everybody's current darlings, Milwaukee. Part of it is the addition of Sabathia, who people are obviously very excited about, but, as MoneyLine pointed out today, there also seems to be a residual effect. Sabathia is good, yes, but it's unclear why 74% of people jumped on the Seth McClung bandwagon on Monday night.

All data taken from Wagerline.

MLB Trade 'Em - Week 12

Sat, 21 Jun 2008 08:10:46 -0500

Screaming Sports' Drew Thibodeau breaks out another edition of MLB Trade 'Em and suggests some very surprising moves. Trade Dan Uggla? Miguel Tejada? You betcha. And while it may sounds crazy, he follows it up with some very sound reasoning.

Know Your Enemy

Tue, 10 Jun 2008 05:46:03 -0500

So it is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you will fight without danger in battles. - Sun Tzu, "The Art of War." So then, let's get to know the Florida Marlins. The Marlins play in Miami, but say they are from Florida, which technically is accurate, but it's ridiculous to name your team after a state and not a city if your state has more than one team. The California Angels realized this, so much so that they go by two cities now. The Marlins play in a dive football stadium but will break ground on a new baseball-only stadium later this year. When they move into said stadium, they will change their name to the Miami Marlins, which is better. They are called the Marlins (which Wikipedia helpfully notes "originates from the fish species") even though the white marlin capital of the world is Ocean City, MD. If OC ever gets a team, we could have issues... Wikipedia lists the "other nicknames" for the Marlins as "The Fish" and "The Boys in Teal," both of which are former nicknames for the pop group Wham! Their mascot is the obnoxious, water-gun toting Billy the Marlin. A marlin is a billfish. Get it? I don't. Their team motto in 2007 was "You Gotta Be Here!" The motto for 2008 - "You Gotta Be Here 2008!" Any guesses as to next year's motto? This shows a serious lack of interest by the marketing team. Hell, even the Pirates can come up with an original motto each year. And it's made worse by them propagating such terrible English. Whose doing their marketing, bloggers? Either way, fans apparently feel they "gotta stay home," because their attendance sucks. The solution - the new ballpark will have the smallest capacity of any major league stadium, so at least it will look full. Tonight's pitching matchup: Brett Myers v. Ricky Nolasco - Myers looked more like Brett Myers and less like Gavin Floyd (Phillies Gavin Floyd, that is) in his last game. Nolasco gave up 12 hits his last time out. He beat the Phils the last time he faced them though. Hopefully these recent trends will continue and the Phils can exact some revenge and extend their 4 game lead over the Fish.

The 10 Best Post-Hype Prospects for Fantasy Baseball...

Tue, 03 Jun 2008 18:44:40 -0500

A post-hype prospect is someone in his second, third or fourth year who has yet to produce at the level that was expected of him when he made the league. Because of this, these super talented prospects go from over-valued to under-valued, and are now sleepers ready to break out and help your team down the stretch run.

Sizzlers and Fizzlers, Week 7

Sun, 25 May 2008 23:39:28 -0500

In a season comprised of streaks and slumps, Fantasyfanatics.com baseball expert helps us sort through the latest trends. Here's a look at the players who are hot and some who are not. Our first sizzler is Lance Berkman (1B, Houston Astros): Berkman has really been on fire the entire season, but I thought he deserved his due. Over his past 6 games, Berkman has posted a .348 BA, .423 OBP, a HR, 2 RBI, 4 R, and 2 SB. He also hit 4 HR last week. In total, Berkman is hitting .387, with a .466 OBP, 16 HR, 45 RBI, 50 R, and 9 SB. Obviously he's having a fantastic season, and fantasy owners have got to love those 9 SB.

Fantasy Rundown: Closers by Committee

Mon, 12 May 2008 14:05:16 -0500

Welcome to the land of committees. The two most tenuous bullpen situations finally blew up over the weekend as the Cardinals and Brewers finally made a switch regarding who will pitch the ninth inning. Bid adieu to Jason Isringhausen and Eric Gagne. Say hello to a host of players that will try to save games for St. Louis and Milwaukee. Get caught up with this and all of the weekend's fantasy relevant action.

The Daily Whine: Bellyitchers off to a great start

Thu, 08 May 2008 11:32:49 -0500

For kicks, take a look the American League ERA leaders through games of May 7: Cliff Lee, 0.81 Zack Greinke, 1.80 Ervin Santana, 2.02 Daisuke Matsuzaka, 2.43 Gavin Floyd, 2.50

Rotogod Says: Ask Rotogod - Fantasy Baseball 2008

Wed, 07 May 2008 14:13:47 -0500

Rotogod here. It's been a while, rotofans. I trust your fantasy baseball teams are all in first place and have suffered no injuries. Mine too. I jest. Today, I will be taking more questions, following up on my last Ask Rotogod post, covering Cliff Lee, trades and waiver wire pickups.

Public Knowledge

Wed, 07 May 2008 13:04:34 -0500

Manny & Papi, Gavin Floyd and Ken griffey Jr. All this and more in Public Knowledge!

Fantasy Baseball Happy Recap - 5/6/08

Wed, 07 May 2008 10:09:11 -0500

In this daily column, we take a look back at the night that was in fantasy baseball highlighting the best/worst performances, emerging fantasy options and developing trends. Check out the Fantasy Baseball Happy Recap every weekday on FSE!

Floyd just outs away from no-no, Rangers may cut Broussard

Wed, 07 May 2008 09:37:28 -0500

For the second time this season Gavin Floyd came within out of pitching no-hitter. Last night his bid was broken up in the ninth inning on a Joe Mayer double. The White Sox had the game in hand by this point as Floyd moved to 3-1 on the season after allowing just a lone run. The lone run was unearned thanks to Carlos Quentin dropping a fly ball in left field. Aside from Mauer, who walked twice in addition to his no-hitter breaking double, Floyd held the Twins to zero hits and one walk over 26 plate appearances, baffling the league's least disciplined lineup with an assortment of big breaking curveballs. Though his 19/18 K/BB ratio will still cause some concerns, Floyd lowered his ERA to 2.50 on the season. Closer Bobby Jenks came in to pitch the final 2/3 innings to preserve the White Sox 7-1 win. Even with rumors he may be desiginated for assigment Juan Uribe was in the lineup for the team, he was 2-for-4 scoring once, and driving in another run. Jermaine Dye hit his fourth home run of the season off of Nick Blackburn in the sixth. The win moves the White Sox one game behind the Twins in the AL Central. The teams will play each other twice more in this series. *** The honeymoon may be over for the Rangers and Ben Broussard. Broussard who was acquired from Seattle in a trade for Tim Hulett was benched last night in favor of Frank Catalanotto and the Dallas Morning News speculates that upon the return of Marlon Byrd he could be released. Broussard began the season playing nearly every day at first base, but quickly shifted into a platoon role and is now being benched completely. Broussard is hitting just .159 and has just three extra base hits in his 82 trips to the plate.