Yardbarker: Dave Bush

AccuScore: Waiver Wire Wonders

Fri, 18 Jul 2008 14:06:04 -0500

We are now in the post All-Star break portion of the season, which means it's that magical time where guys like Paul Konerko and Adam LaRoche turn things around.

MLB Status Check (7/17)

Fri, 18 Jul 2008 07:32:07 -0500

Screaming Sports' Billy Smith checks in on some of the mega-hyped offseason stars, as well as the not-so-hyped offseason stars. Who is living up to it? Who isn't? And who is coming out of left field? Billy has all of those answers for you.

Dave Bush has a career day against the Rockies

Thu, 10 Jul 2008 18:26:30 -0500

Dave Bush had the best outing of his career on Thursday in an 11-1 thrashing of the Rockies. Bush struck out a career high 13 in eight innings while allowing only three hits and a single Rockies' run. It is the third straight outing in a row at Miller Park that Bush has been nearly unhitable. Bush picked up his fifth victory on the season and lowered his season ERA to 4.39.

Sheets K's can't save a bad offense

Thu, 10 Jul 2008 08:29:52 -0500

Ben Sheets had a season high 11 strikeouts against the Rockies on Wednesday night but it wasn't enough in an 8-3 Brewers' loss. Sheets went six innings and gave up three runs to go along with all the strikeouts. Bill Hall got the lead early for the Crew with a second inning home run. After that, the offense went missing. The Rockies took a 4-1 lead going into the bottom of the seventh when the bats were found and the Brewers rallied to cut the lead to 4-3.

The 'Sabathia Got Traded' Post

Mon, 07 Jul 2008 18:54:18 -0500

The whole world is reporting that the Indians have traded C.C. Sabathia to the Brewers, so even though the specifics of the deal are unclear, I guess it's time for a post.

There have been strong rumors about a trade between these two teams for awhile now, and for good reason. Both teams are, essentially, trading from a position of excess. The Indians are giving up a 2008 asset (expendable when you're 14 games out of first in July), and the Brewers are trading a potent bat that comes with a questionable glove (valuable, but less so when you're in the NL and already have Braun, Fielder, and Mat Gamel).

The Brewers are seizing their opportunity this season, as it looks to be their best in the near future. Although they will likely benefit from Yovani Gallardo's return next year, ace Ben Sheets will be a free agent this winter; combined with Sabathia's expected departure, the 2008 Brewers rotation is looking a whole lot more formidable than next year's staff.

By acquiring Sabathia right now, Milwaukee is maximizing his value, as he'll be able to make two starts before the All-Star break. That means he'll make approximately 15 regular season starts as a Brewer. Either Dave Bush or Seth McClung will be moved out of the bullpen; it doesn't particularly matter, as an ERA of about 4.60 would be expected out of either. In the NL, the over/under on Sabathia's ERA would likely be around 3.10. Over half a season, that upgrade is worth about 1.5 wins, plus the substantial value he'd potentially provide in the playoffs. Add to that the two compensation picks Milwaukee stands to receive if they don't re-sign Sabathia, and it's easy to like this deal from their perspective.

In terms of impact on the National League pennant race, the team most adversely effected by this trade is likely the Cardinals. Sabathia makes the Brewers the clear frontrunner for the Wild Card (not that they weren't already), and possibly even the second most likely NL playoff team.

It would be a mistake to not mention Sabathia's hitting prowess, as he boasts a career line of .300/.317/.475 (in an outrageously small sample size of 42 PAs, of course). His 440-foot bomb against the Dodgers provided one of the few highlights of Cleveland's 2008 campaign.

Sabathia's departure probably won't register to Indians fans until he takes the mound in Milwaukee on Tuesday night. Ever since his debut at the age of 20, he's been a valuable member of the rotation, posting at least average ERAs in each of his eight seasons. His value as an Indian peaked last year, both in reality (241 IP, 143 ERA+, both career highs) and perception (Cy Young award).

Sabathia's poor performance at the outset of the season (18 IP, 27 R, 14 BB, 5 HR in four starts) made headlines and, other than in trade talks, he hasn't been in the news much since. However, he's been as good as anybody since mid-April, posting a 2.16 ERA and 109:20 K:BB ratio in 104.1 innings. His 2008 QERA--even including those first four starts--is an impressive 3.44.

Unfortunately, this is how a team with the Indians' resources is forced to do business. From a business perspective, drafting Sabathia is likely one of the smartest things the organization has ever done. They turned a #20 pick in the 1998 draft and about $30MM into 1,528.2 innings of a 115 ERA+, and the four prospects they'll receive from Milwaukee.

The headlining prospect is Matt LaPorta, a 23-year old out of the University of Florida. Last winter, Kevin Goldstein ranked him as the #1 prospect in the Brewers organization, and Keith Law had him 37th in all of baseball. This year, he's hit .291/.404/.584 in 296 ABs at AA Huntsville. He'll likely report to AAA Buffalo, and could contribute to the big club as early as August. He'll likely end up at first base, a position that has emerged as a weakness for the Indians in 2008, as Ryan Garko has managed only a .243/.324/.342 line.

The details beyond LaPorta are not entirely clear, but reports indicate the Indians will be receiving LHP Zach Jackson, RHP Rob Bryson, and a PTBNL.

Jackson doesn't look to be anything to write home about, as he's a 25-year old with a 7.83 ERA at AAA Nashville, with 33 Ks and 9 HRs allowed in 56.1 IP.

Bryson is a 20-year old currently a single-A West Virginia, with a considerable amount of upside. He was moved to the bullpen after five starts, and has recorded 73 Ks in 55 innings, while walking 20 and giving up three homers. Back in February, Goldstein described him as "[offering] plenty to dream on."

The fourth prospect sounds like it may end up being 21-year old Taylor Green. He primarily played second base in 2006, but was then moved to third, apparently because of Rickie Weeks' presence presence on the Brewers. The thinking is that the Indians would like to get a good look at him at second before committing to him, as he'd theoretically be more valuable there. In 2008, Green has put up a line of .297/.381/.452 with Brevard County, with 10 homers in a park that significantly suppresses power.

The Indians and Brewers matched up very well, which of course is why this deal happened in the first place. The Indians got a high impact bat that will be able to contribute to the 2009 club. They also received potential long-term solutions for second base and the rotation, although the probabiliity of those two is significantly lower. I'm in no real position to value prospects, but this seems like a pretty decent haul, especially considering the heightened (perceived) value of prospects over the last few years.

Related:
The Big Trade, Part I [Let's Go Tribe]
Meet Matt LaPorta [The Cleveland Fan]
Keith Law [ESPN]
All about LaPorta [CastroTurf]

Sabathia to the Brewers

Mon, 07 Jul 2008 12:44:23 -0500

for a whole lot. for a player they won't be able to keep after this season. None of that matters though. Here are some numbers. Sabathia 1.73 WAR rest of the season (assuming about 14 starts and 98 total innings pitched and using CHONE projections and NL replacement level) 1.51 WAR rest of season (14 starts, 98 IP, using 2008 numbers to date and NL replacement level) Dave Bush Likely to be taken out of rotation. 1.09 WAR rest of season (about 80 IP, CHONE projections) 0.71 WAR rest of season (assuming about 80 IP and using 2008 numbers) I didn't make any adjustments for Sabathia's numbers in the AL other than using NL replacement level, which is lower than the AL for obvious reasons. I didn't make any adjustments for park factor either. So what you basically have is Sabathia adding 1 win over Bush the rest of the way. But this also allows Bush to take over in the bullpen for a weaker pitcher, which probably adds up to .5 wins. If all necessary adjustments were made, the difference, or added wins above replacement to the Brewers for this trade would be somewhere between 1.5 and 3.

CC Sabathia is a Milwaukee Brewer

Sun, 06 Jul 2008 18:57:57 -0500

Yes, Brewers fans, celebrate the night away! CC Sabathia is now a Milwaukee Brewer pending paperwork and an exchange of medical records. Sabathia is expected to start his first game for the Brewers on Tuesday night versus the Rockies.

Brewers walk-off on a beautiful Saturday night

Sat, 05 Jul 2008 20:43:26 -0500

Dave Bush pitched his second consecutive gem at Miller Park on Saturday night in a 2-1 Brewers win. Bush went eight innings giving up only one run on four hits while striking out seven. He took a no-decision but he has now made back-to-back starts at Miller Park going eight innings and giving up only a single run.

Brewers bats pound Pirates and the latest on CC

Sat, 05 Jul 2008 00:19:46 -0500

The Brewers offense provided a ton of fireworks in a 9-1 win over the Pirates on Friday. The bats are on fire and it appears the talk of acquiring CC Sabathia has sparked the team. Ben Sheets pitched 5 2/3 innings and only gave up one run to pick up his tenth win of the season. His record improved to 10-2 on the season and he lowered his ERA to 2.77. Sheets struck out six and walked three. He seems to have had some control problems over the last month but hopefully it's something he can work out in his next few starts.

Dave Bush flashes back to old form, Brewers lose

Tue, 01 Jul 2008 15:58:25 -0500

Monday night in Phoenix, Dave Bush reverted back to his early season form and struggled on the mound. Bush gave up five runs on nine hits in only five innings of work in a 6-3 Brewers loss to the Diamondbacks. Bush fell to 4-8 on the season.

AccuScore: Waiver Wire Wonders

Fri, 27 Jun 2008 14:36:26 -0500

If you are in need of pitching, but missed out on early season Waiver Wire Wonders like Justin Duchscherer or Jair Jurrjens, AccuScore fantasy expert Tim Williams has a few options for you, and suggests patience is the key to realizing their long term value on your team.

Dave Bush pitches another gem; Brewers continue to roll

Tue, 24 Jun 2008 21:12:38 -0500

Dave Bush continued one of the best in-season turnarounds in recent Brewers' history. After being sent down to Nashville earlier in the season, Bush has now pitched two great games in a row. Bush shut down the Braves offense allowing only one run and four hits over seven innings Tuesday night. He walked just one and struck out five to pick up his fourth win of the season.

Ben Sheets continues to make his case for the All-Star Game start

Mon, 23 Jun 2008 21:44:24 -0500

It's getting old to say…Ben Sheets made another great start in a Brewers' win on Monday night. No, I lied. It doesn't get old at all. Sheets may be pitching as well right now as any time in his career. Sheets pitched his third complete game of the season to pick up his ninth win of the season. Sheeter only needed 106 pitches to finish off the Braves by a score of 4-1. He gave up only four hits on the night while striking out seven.

Break Out the Brooms

Fri, 20 Jun 2008 14:56:00 -0500

Thursday was a day for sweeps as eight different teams broke out the brooms against their foes. The biggest of them all was probably Tampa Bay which continued its franchise-best season by finishing off the Cubs powered by Carl Crawford. There are also some nice fantasy options in obscure places (BAL, SD) if you look hard enough.

Dave Bush is nearly perfect while the bullpen is anything but

Fri, 20 Jun 2008 07:48:57 -0500

Thursday may have been one of the most up-and-down games I have ever watched in my life. Dave Bush was only six outs away from a no-hitter but somehow the Brewers were only able to squeak out a win over the Blue Jays by a score of 8-7.