Yardbarker: Chad Billingsley

MLB Status Check - Week 18

Fri, 01 Aug 2008 06:39:24 -0500

Screaming Sports' Billy Smith checks in on some of the mega-hyped offseason stars, as well as the not-so-hyped offseason stars. Who is living up to it? Who isn't? And who is coming out of left field? Billy has all of those answers for you.

MLB Status Check (7/17)

Fri, 18 Jul 2008 07:32:07 -0500

Chad Billingsley: Staff Ace

Mon, 14 Jul 2008 06:30:32 -0500

For all intents and purposes, Billingsley was the Dodgers' staff ace about a month ago, but now i'm ready to make it official. No other Dodger starter really comes that close to the numbers he's put up this season, and that's regardless of how much "veteran presence" Derek Lowe and Brad Penny may have. This isn't a "staff ace by default" situation either. The Dodgers have the best team ERA in the National League, and there's plenty of other Dodgers pitchers who are having good seasons. So why does he get no hype? I have no idea. I'm guessing it's partly because the Dodgers are a bad team, but I have a feeling it has more to do with the fact that he doesn't play in New York or Boston. Regardless, he continues to go about his business while remaining relatively anonymous among the crowd. Billingsley's only 9-8 on the season, but his record is just...

AccuScore Closer Report - 7/7

Tue, 08 Jul 2008 18:00:47 -0500

There is a new look to the Closer Report this week with expanded coverage of bullpen situations around baseball and rankings for the top fantasy closers and middle relievers. This week AccuScore analyst looks at the All-Star relievers, and has a problem with the selection of one player in particular. Also, the trade deadline is approaching so which closers could be swapping uniforms in the near future?

Almost Perfect

Tue, 08 Jul 2008 17:57:16 -0500

Hiroki Kuroda was almost perfect Monday night shutting down 27 of 28 batters in a 3-0 win against the Braves. The Dodgers will need him to continue his strong recent performance as they battle for first place in the weak NL West. Damaso Marte got the first save in Pittsburgh post-Matt Capps, and youngster Ricky Nolasco and Ubaldo Jimenez continued their strong recent runs.

Breaking Down The Wagerline Numbers: June

Mon, 07 Jul 2008 23:34:05 -0500

I did this for April/May, and thought it was worth doing again. This time the discrepancies we'll see are based more on actual results, rather than preseason perceptions.

I'm skipping right past the average percentages, and straight to the adjusted ones. The line on the game explains about 63% of the variation of which team the public is going to bet on, so any unadjusted list is just going to include lots of bad pitchers on one end, and studs on the other.

First, June's most undervalued starters; the guys who have gotten significantly less public backing than we'd expect from their game lines (min. 5 June starts):

Bedard's reputation has taken an extremely sharp downturn; I guess that's what happens when you get traded to Seattle. A year ago he struck out 15 Rangers in one game, and was on his way to putting together 5/6 of a Cy Young campaign before getting injured. At the beginning of last month, he was 4-4 with a 4.47 ERA. That drop in the perception of him caused the above gap, and he's actually been quite good in his last five starts (1.82 ERA). Of course, with that offense behind him, the Mariners are only 3-2 in those games.

Some of these are pretty standard; Harang and Jimenez are pitchers who have been significantly better than their record would indicate. Billingsley is 8-7 now, but that's because he's won his las four starts. It's unlikely there will be value in betting on him, and his 9.3 K/9, for long, so enjoy it while it last, until people catch on.

Joba is a surprise here. It's possible that he is so overhyped that pretty much everybody realizes it, and they forget that he's actually pretty damn good. He needs to get the walks down, but in 35 innings as a starter, he's struck out 37 and allowed just one home run.

It's not entirely clear why Hamels was undervalued, as the ace of a team with one of the best records in baseball. I suppose he was only 5-4 with a 3.73 ERA through the first two months, but that's not exactly awful. I guess that's kind of the point, though.

Here are the most overvalued, based on the opposite criteria:

Despite allowing 12 homers and striking out just 24 in his first 59.1 innings, Byrd had a 4.10 ERA through the first two months. People saw right through that, and they've been rewarded, as he has a 7.85 ERA and a stellar 15:11 K:HR ratio since. I would advise any GMs considering trading for him to ignore the previous two sentences, and instead recall this dominance.

Saunders is a good candidate to be high on this list again in July; he's 12-4 with a 3.04 ERA, yet his FIP is 4.50, barely better than the 4.92 PECOTA had him at coming into the year. The two other Angels are in the same boat, if to a lesser extent, as their records aren't nearly as gaudy, and their ERAs aren't as unsustainably low.

There's not much more to be said about Floyd; 6.0 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 40% GB%. His ERA is one of the more impressive flukes of the first half.

Now, the most underappreciated teams:

On June 1, these five teams were a combined 116-171, good for an impressive .404 W%. Obviously, not many people were all that interested in betting on them at that point. They've slightly improved since, winning at a .428 clip, but not by much.

Finally, the most overrated teams:

Again, no surprises here. The Angels are way ahead of the pack; that'll happen when you're 10 games over .500 despite outscoring your opponents by only five runs in the first two months.

The Cubs and Red Sox are no strangers to 'overrated' lists, and the hot starts of the White Sox and Cardinals caused them to be overvalued by the general public. Notable in their absence are the Yankees. That's partially because they're in third place, but they also don't seem to have any particular pitchers that the public gets extremely excited about.

A team to watch for in the coming months is everybody's current darlings, Milwaukee. Part of it is the addition of Sabathia, who people are obviously very excited about, but, as MoneyLine pointed out today, there also seems to be a residual effect. Sabathia is good, yes, but it's unclear why 74% of people jumped on the Seth McClung bandwagon on Monday night.

All data taken from Wagerline.

Dodgers Get No-Hit And Still Win

Sun, 29 Jun 2008 22:41:52 -0500

If there ever were a game that could sum up the season thus far, this would have to be a strong candidate. The Dodgers offense consisted of 3 walks, 0 hits (yes, you read that correctly), and Matt Kemp reaching on an error by the pitcher Jered Weaver. Seriously, that's it. I'm not even completely sure if what I watched was real or not. But if we're looking for the silver lining in this statistical anomaly, it's that

The Dodgers Can't Get a Hit...But Win

Sat, 28 Jun 2008 23:45:25 -0500

Hits are overrated. At least that's what the Dodgers are telling themselves tonight. Despite being no-hit for 8 innings, they walked away with a 1-0 win over the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at home on Saturday. The Dodgers got a baserunner in the 5th when Jered Weaver couldn't field a soft grounder from Matt Kemp. Kemp promptly stole second, and then helped himself to third base after Jeff Mathis air mailed a throw into centerfield. Kemp then made it home on a sacrifice fly from Blake DeWitt for the only run of the game. Jered Weaver pitched 6 no-hit innings, and Jose Arredondo closed it out pitching 2 hitless innings. But it was Chad Billingsley who picked up the win for the Dodgers. My question – why not leave Jered Weaver out to finish the job? I know his pitch count was high, and I know they were playing by NL rules, meaning Weaver would have to hit. But so what if the Halo's lose this game 1-0? I mean, sure, it would suck, and I don't generally advocate individual accomplishments at the expense of your team. But it's a NO-HITTER!! Not to mention the fact that Weaver has been struggling this year; imagine what a no-hitter would do for the guy's confidence, win or lose.

CC Sabathia Trade Confirmed -- Who Will Get Him?

Mon, 23 Jun 2008 13:52:00 -0500

It has been confirmed from a source that CC will be traded, but there are a few teams on the table. Most likely is the Dodgers who will have to part with Matt Kemp or Chad Billingsley. The Yankees denied trades involving Robinson Cano and Joba Chamberlain. Tampa, Millwaukee, and Oakland may also be interested.

Over/Under: Approaching The Midpoint

Fri, 20 Jun 2008 20:40:07 -0500

Over/Under predictions on the following: .850 OPS For James Loney 80 Games Played For Rafael Furcal 1 Affair Involving Derek Lowe 9.00 K/9 Rate For Chad Billingsley 150 Plate Appearances For Andy LaRoche 81 Wins For The Dodgers

Oakland, Chicago Bring the Lumber

Wed, 18 Jun 2008 13:12:21 -0500

The A's and White Sox have been two of the biggest surprises in the American League this season. The two played long ball, and combined for 31 runs on Tuesday. Mike Gonzalez returns just in time to save the Atlanta bullpen, Seattle continues to flounder, Milton Bradley gets injured, and Chase Headley makes his debut.

It's Two Months Into The Season, So Let's Play A Little Over/Under

Wed, 04 Jun 2008 20:12:09 -0500

It's the dawn of a new section here at Fire Ned Colletti Now, and I hope i'll actually remember to do this every once in a while in the future. Anyway, I figure it'll be fun to document some of my "educated" predictions and see how they work out in the end. 20 Home Runs For Matt Kemp Everybody and their mother predicted Kemp's power would emerge this season, and the general feeling was that he'd easily hit between 20-30 home runs. He's currently on pace for 12, but with his frame he always seems like a threat to go on a homer binge like he did in 2005 when he hit 7 homers in his first 100 major league at bats. The problem, however, is that Kemp hits a lot of a ground balls (44.5% this year, 45.4% last year). And even though his line drive percentage (26.7%) bodes very well for his batting average, it also means that he doesn't hit many fly balls (28.8%). When also considering that 23.8% of his at bats end in strikeouts, and only 8.8% of his fly balls end up over the fence, Matt simply doesn't give himself enough of an opportunity to hit home runs. All in all, it would be a stretch to assume Kemp can reach the 20 home run plateau unless something drastic happens with his percentages. Prediction-Under Plus other stuff similar. 10 Starts This Year For Clayton Kershaw .800 OPS For Jeff Kent .300 Average For Russell Martin 15 Wins For Anybody On The Dodgers Pitching Staff 1 All-Star For The Dodgers

Broxton Blows Billingsley's Great Start; Some Injury Updates

Sat, 31 May 2008 18:41:47 -0500

At this very moment, Chad Billingsley is probably contemplating suicide. Or murder. Despite giving up just 4 hits and 0 runs in 7 innings, Billingsley got screwed out of a win yet again after Elvis impersonator/professional pitcher Jonathan Broxton got shelled. Plus injury updates and stuff on Joe Torre's love for the hit & run.

Derek Lowe Is Emo, Dodgers Still Blow

Wed, 28 May 2008 22:54:46 -0500

There are streaks where your team can't score runs just because they are unlucky, and then there are streaks where your team can't score runs because they have "Dodgers" imprinted across the chest of their jerseys. The Dodgers continued their "excellence" with runners in scoring position, but they still managed to score a run. How, you ask? A home run?! An extra base hit?! No, no, much too optimistic. It's the same old Dodger incompetence, it's just that Carlos Zambrano was feeling especially charitable and walked a run in for us with the bases loaded. Oddly enough, I wasn't even excited when it happened, I just laughed to myself silently at how pathetic it was. At this point i'm willing to give the fat behemoths in the all-you-can-eat bleachers in right field of Dodger Stadium a few at bats, because you can't figure they would do any worse. Continued...

Fantasy Baseball Buy Low/Sell High Pt. 1

Wed, 21 May 2008 08:43:26 -0500

Now a little over a month and a half deep into the season, fantasy owners' rosters are beginning to take true form. However, there are those players who can still be classified as an aberration – both in the good and the bad sense of the word. FIO staff writer Rich Lerner takes a look at some possible players to nab or ship off while they are off the pace of career norms.