Yardbarker: Chicago Cubs

Chips Ahoy

Wed, 25 Nov 2009 10:15:20 -0500

According to Sun-Times beat reporter, Gordon Wittenmeyer, with the signing of John Grabow to a 2/7.5 contract (backended as only Jim Hendry can do) and the trading of Aaron Heilman to the Snakes, the Cubs have supposedly made their final bullpen move of the offseason.

The deal appears to secure the final key piece to the Cubs' projected 2010 bullpen, coming one day after the team traded veteran Aaron Heilman to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

I'm pretty happy to see Heilman move out of town but replacing his with Grabow seems kind of blah. It's a Hendry thing to get a grizzled veteran for that 8th inning setup role and since Grabow is able to get lefty and righty hitters out (i.e. not a LOOGY), he's the heir apparent for the crusty veteran out of the bullpen for 2010.

List em. Since Jim Hendry was given the reins to the GM job in 2002, he's added through trade or free agency the following veteran bullpen lugnuts: Antonia Alfonseca, Mike Remlinger, Dave Veres, Mark Guthrie, Alan Benes, Phil Norton, Joe Borowoski, LaTroy Hawkins, Glendon Rusch,Cliff Bartosh, Scott Williamson, Chad Fox (twice), Wade Miller, Bob Howry, Scott Eyre, Neal Cotts, Chad Gaudin, Jon Lieber, Luis Vizcaino, Heilman and lastly Grabow. I'd say for the most part, that's the ugly underbelly of MLB pitching although I know the Cubs are far from being alone in accumulating pitchers like these. Hence, I'm hoping the 2010 Cubs get more out of their young pitching so we don't see Chad Fox (round three?) ever again. Esmalin Caridad, Jeff Stevens and Justin Berg, I'm talking to you. It would be really nice to see productive seasons out of the recent 40 man roster additions including John Gaub, Blake Parker and even longshot/hotshot Raphael Dolis.

Grabow's career has been fairly lackluster but we all know how magically important lefty's are in the bullpen. Guys like Will Ohman, Scott Eyre, Joe Beimel, Brian Shouse, Scott Schowenweis, Ron Mahay, Ron Villone, Eddie Guardado and Alan Embree keep hanging around when righty's of their ilk would be long retired.

Looking at fangraphs, including charts on lefty/righty splits on Grabow, we see his strength is a fairly low HR/9 (0.95/9) rate, a decent LOB% (around 75%) and his weakness is walks (4.15/9).He's gonna drive Lou crazy if that walk rate continues.

The kicker on Grabow though is that he's got a time bomb in his elbow. He has a history of left (pitching) elbow bone chips. Again from the sun-times piece:

As recently as 2007, Grabow pitched with pain and spent time on the disabled list for the problem, but he did not have surgery to remove the chips. He opted for a treatment and maintenance program that allowed him to make 149 appearances the last two seasons.

''If you look at a lot of pitchers, they're going to have something going on in their shoulder or in their elbow,'' Grabow said. ''Just throwing a baseball all these years, your arm's going to develop a lot of things that are just part of the wear and tear. It's something you learn to manage. I've got a routine every day to be able to pitch every day.

''Thank God it hasn't been an issue the last two years. Maybe it's something I've put in the past and can just pitch through.''

Grabow was on the DL from the beginning of the 2007 season, after being shut down in spring training on March 11th with "elbow inflammation" (essentially elbow loose bodies or chips). He returned on April 25th but only pitched 51 innings that year. The last two seasons he went 72 and 76 innings so the problem hasn't acted up lately.

Where do these loose bodies aka bone/cartilage chips in the elbow come from?

The elbow joint is a complex hinge joint made up from the distal humerus (arm bone) and the two forearm bones that rotate (supination/palm up and pronation/palm down) around each other, the radius (radial head at the elbow) and the ulna (olecranon at the elbow which is the main hinge).

Elbow mechanics in throwing a baseball with spin, create significant compressive and shear forces across the elbow which can lead to damaging the articular cartilage and subsequently break off little pieces of cartilage or even bigger pieces that have bone and cartilage. This is the equivalent of getting sand in your shoe. Smaller grit isn't as irritating as larger pebbles. The larger pieces float around and if they wind up in tighter parts of the joint can cause it to lock up or get stuck. Usually they will move around to make the locking temporary but if the symptoms get more recurrent it makes more sense to treat this problem more agressively.

Grabow mentioned that he has a rehab routine to manage his elbow condition but there is luck involved in how well this works. Hopefully the loose debris is small enough he can work through it. Other non-surgical options include the usual non-steroidal anti-inflammatory meds or possibly a cortisone injection. If the symptoms are enough of a problem there is elbow arthroscopy to look inside the joint and remove the loose pieces of cartilage. MRI imaging usually does a good job of seeing these small loose cartilage pieces. X-Rays don't image cartilage well but they are useful to see bony loose pieces and spurs.

Elbow arthroscopy / (image), like other joint arthroscopy is done under fluid to distend the joint. The elbow anatomy has many more important nerves passing nearby so the portals (or entry incisions) to the joint are very precise to minimize nerve damage risk. Because the elbow is a smaller joint some of the equipment like shavers and grasping tools are smaller as well. Loose bodies and debris are fairly straightforward to remove but for the same reason they developed in the first place they can recur.

Elbow bone chips aren't limited to pitchers. NL MVP, Albert Pujols just underwent removal of bone chips from his right elbow (his 2nd surgery as in 2008 he had ulnar nerve surgery). Kosuke Fukudome missed the end of his 2007 season in Japan to undergo an elbow scope to remove bone chips. I wrote on this last season at TCR when he was quoted about the impact of his elbow problem on his subsequent play.

Fukudome had elbow surgery late in the 2007 season, and the elbow started bothering him last season right about the time his decline began in May. By the end of the season, his hitting mechanics were a mess.

''I didn't feel the pain physically, but I must have been subconsciously feeling the pain of the elbow,'' said Fukudome, still reluctant to openly admit pain. But when asked if it was a factor last season, he said, ''Probably it was.''

Of course, the issues are different for a pitcher than a hitter. The repetition, particularly a reliever who has to warm up and might not get into a game makes them more likely to get into this kind of problem. Lets just hope that Grabow's subconscious remains as calm as his elbow for 2010.

Discussion: Marlon Byrd vs. Mike Cameron

Wed, 25 Nov 2009 09:49:09 -0500

More photos » by Luis Alvarez - AP Browse more photos » Yesterday, I posted an idea regarding a potential free agent signing for a Cubs bench position in 2010. Admittedly, this wasn't the most important possible addition to the roster for next year -- however, the Cubs had a very poor bench in 2009 and I still think Chad Tracy (at the right price) would be a good addition. Today, I'm going to analyze two play...

Chicago Cubs: Looking Forward to 2010 ... The Reserves and Rumored Additions

Wed, 25 Nov 2009 02:00:00 -0500

Monday it was the Starting Eight. Tuesday it was Lou Piniella's Pitching Staff and the third and final part on the CCO's look at the early projections for 2010 ... The Reserves and Rumored Additions. The Cubs' off-season appears to be centered on where (and when) Jim Hendry will trade Milton Bradley ... as well as how much of the remaining two years and more than $21 million the Cubs will have to send to his new team. Tampa remains the most likely destination for Pat Burrell...

Why The Cubs Should Sign Chad Tracy

Tue, 24 Nov 2009 09:41:19 -0500

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP Chad Tracy doubles in two runs vs. the Cubs in Phoenix last April 29. Browse more photos » While all of us are awaiting Thanksgiving dinner and the Cubs to trade Milton Bradley (not necessarily in that order), I thought I'd start an occasional series on players who might otherwise fly under the radar who I think could help the Cubs in 2010. Obviously, this woul...

Chicago Cubs: Looking Forward to 2010 ... The Pitching Staff

Tue, 24 Nov 2009 02:00:00 -0500

Monday it was the Starting Eight, next up on the CCO's look at the early projections for 2010 ... Lou Piniella's pitching staff. Not only will the starting rotation for the 2010 version of the Chicago Cubs have a couple of changes, the Cubs' pen appears to be headed for another off-season overhaul. Part Two: The Pitching Staff

Where I’d Like To See Milton Bradley In 2010

Mon, 23 Nov 2009 08:00:10 -0500

I had an uncomfortable experience over the Twitter the other night… A Cubs fan asked ME where I thought Milton Bradley would end up next season. I actually don’t know which part was more uncomfortable: interacting with a Cubs fan, or being asked a speculative baseball question usually reserved for the Peter Gammons’ and Ken Rosenthal’s of the world. *Cringe* I kid Cubs fans… it was definitely the latter. Anywho… I responded with my honest to goodness gut feeling. I’m not putting any stock in any Bradley rumors we’ve heard so far. None of them have made sense for the teams potentially acquiring Bradley, so I’m dismissing those for the time being. I don’t think we’ll get a clear picture of this situation until free agency plays...

Chicago Cubs: Looking Forward to 2010

Mon, 23 Nov 2009 02:00:00 -0500

With two weeks to go before the winter meetings in Indianapolis there are more rumors surrounding the Chicago Cubs than actual news, which is to be expected. With the 2010 payroll reportedly set very close to the amount that was paid to field the disappointing 2009 squad (between $140 and $150 million), most of the changes Jim Hendry is expected to make will come from moving players and their contracts. With a majority of the roster for next season set due to large contracts and no-trade c...

Weekend Update ... Castillo, Halladay and Other Cubs Rumors

Sun, 22 Nov 2009 01:05:00 -0500

The Chicago Cubs made a little noise last week with the two-year, $7.5 million deal for John Grabow and send Aaron Heilman to Arizona for a pair of prospects. Then Friday afternoon, the Cubs added five players to their major league roster ... three expected and two, well a little surprising. John Gaub, Welington Castillo and Blake Parker along with Rafael Dolis and James Adduci were protected from the upcoming Rule 5 Draft with both Gaub and Parker expected to be a part of the Cubs pen at som...

Cubs Protect 5 from Rule 5 Draft

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:27:42 -0500

The Cubs added pitchers John Gaub, Blake Paker and Rafael Dolis along with catcher Welington Castillo and OF James Adduci to their 40-man roster. All five were eligible to be selected in the upcoming Rule 5 draft and the deadline was today to add them. Arizona Phil has been keeping track of this on the right sidebar of course. He had Matt Camp on his short list of players he thought the Cubs would protect - rather than Adduci - but he got the other four.

Besides Camp, I would guess that Steve Clevenger, Alessandro Maestri, Thomas Diamond, J.R.Mathes or Greg Rheinhard might draw a little interest.

40-Man Roster Moves for the Cubs

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:27:01 -0500

The Chicago Cubs added five players to their 40-man roster on Friday afternoon: John Gaub, Blake Parker, Rafael Dolis, Welington Castillo and James Adduci. The Cubs had until 11:00pm C.S.T. on Friday night to add players in order to protect them from being exposed in the upcoming Rule 5 Draft on December 10. The Cubs 40-man roster now stands at 38 players.

Cubs Rumor Round-Up: Halladay, Bradley

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 17:46:17 -0500

- Muskat blogged that the Blue Jays contacted the Cubs about Roy Halladay.

...there's a catch. He's owed $15.75 million in 2010, and the Blue Jays want some of the Cubs' top prospects. No. 1, the team can't take on Halladay's salary. The Blue Jays apparently have a wish list and Milton Bradley is not on it. A player like highly regarded shortstop Starlin Castro most likely is, and the Cubs don't want to part with him, especially since they might only have Halladay for one year.

A good time to show your committment to winning Ricketts family - we're all counting on you.

- Phil Rogers tried to sell a 3-way trade of Luis Castillo to the Cubs, Kevin Millwood to the Mets and Milton Bradley to the Rangers. It seemed to be quickly shot down though by the Cubs and Rangers.

- Carlos Marmol claimed the Cubs were pursuing Pedro Martinez, but the Cubs shot down that as well.

- John Grabow's deal is official, 2/7.5M although not sure if it's evenly split. A report from Bruce Levine said it would go up by a million in the second year, so that makes it $3.25M in 2010 and $4.25M in 2011. Also should note that Grabow's been dealing with bone chips as well for the last three years, I'm sure that won't bite the Cubs in the ass.

- Last day to enter the TCR Free Agent Frenzy contest, I'll shut it down sometime this weekend.

Why (And How) The Cubs Should Trade For Curtis Granderson

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 12:39:01 -0500

by Duane Burleson - AP In addition to a good bat, Curtis Granderson would give the Cubs plus defense in CF. View full size photo » I'm not sure I really have to convince anyone here of the premise of the headline of this article; numerous people have already posted here about how useful Curtis Granderson would be in the Cubs' outfield, and several traditional media articles in both Chicago and Detroit have di...

No Frenzy ... Just Trades for the Cubs

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 01:30:00 -0500

Tim Lincecum picked up his second consecutive NL Cy Young award on Thursday. The BBWAA awards will take a break on Friday and pickup next week with the announcements of the NL and AL MVPs. One note on the NL Cy Young award, Keith Law and Will Carroll might steer clear of St. Louis for a few months. Let the free agent frenzy begin ... just not on the North Side of Chicago. The majority of changes the Cubs are looking to make this winter will reportedly come via the trade route and not openi...

Grabow Deal Near Completion

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 09:27:22 -0500

Bruce Levine is reporting that a deal with John Grabow should be completed today for two years and nearly 7.5 million. I had expressed my indifference in the past over resigning Grabow. Oh sure, his ERA has been pretty good the last two years, but with a BB/9 rate near 5 last year and 4.15 for his career, I don't think anyone would really miss him if he got away. I was asked in the comments yesterday how I'd handle this situation and here was my response.

I offer Grabow arbitration and wait to see if he takes it...chances are he will because a team doesn't want to give up a draft pick for a set-up man(ed. note - Grabow is classified as a Type A free agent). That'll cost the Cubs probably an extra $1M this year, but if Ricketts is serious about propping the farm system, he'll roll the dice(ed. note - when I say Ricketts, I mean they'll cover Hendry if Grabow wins a big arbitration case). Maybe the Cubs get lucky and a team with a protected pick signs him or one that signed a few other FA's and the Cubs score some extra draft picks. If he does sign with another team, I wait until February when inevitably some lefties will still be around and sign one or two on the cheap. I imagine you can find a few on the trade market for Jake Fox who will likely be traded, since he's out of options and in Lou's doghouse.

In general, I could care less if the Cubs have even one lefty in their pen. It's a stupid unnecessary crutch for a manager so he can make safe moves that the media won't blast him on. The Angels did plenty good for awhile with their pen with no lefties (before Oliver and Fuentes). Better off finding good relievers that can get guys from both sides of the plate and you'll trust for an inning or longer. Cubs had a great LOOGY in Ohman and couldn't figure out to use him.1

And I don't mind Grabow, he can get guys from both sides of the plate, I just think's just slightly above average and I'm also not sure Lou will use him properly, which is a full inning at a time, rather than a match-up lefty.

Now when I wrote that, I figured Grabow could get anywhere from $4-$5M in arbitration case due to the 2.84 and 3.36 ERA's the last two years, near the top in holds, a handful of saves and Type A free agent classification. That would be a hefty raise from the $2.3M he made in 2008.

But I looked a little further at contracts signed by set-up men and relievers last year and I probably guessed a little high.

Jeremy Affeldt - 2 years/$8M total

Juan Cruz - 2 years/$6M total (there's a $4M 2011 option or $500K buyout, so $6.5M guaranteed)

Kyle Farnsworth - 2 years/$8.75M (there's a $5.25M 2011 option or $500K buyout, so $9.25M guaranteed plus incentives that could earn him more)2

Joe Beimel - 1 year/$2M

Will Ohman - 1 year/$1.35M

Latroy Hawkins - 1 year/$3.5M

I think Affeldt might be the best comp for Grabow, coming off two good seasons before 2009 and in his first year of free agency and both pitchers don't show much of a disparity between getting righties or lefties out. So at the high end, we could expect Grabow to maybe get $4M in arbitration.

Considering that assumption and considering that relievers tend to be rather volatile from year-to-year, it would seem like a good idea to not tie yourself up to a multi-year offer if you don't have to unless you feel you're getting a pretty good discount or certain that Grabow could deliver two good seasons in a row. Now we don't know the contract specifics quite yet, but at an average of $3.75M per year, Hendry looks to be paying the top of the scale and doing it for two years now, when he probably could have gotten away with just one by offering arbitration. Now maybe the deal will be one of Hendry's famous back-loaded deals as the Cubs have money coming off the books next year, but I fail to see how the Cubs aren't doing anything but paying at the top of payscale range here for Grabow's services.

So then can the Cubs safely assume that he'll continue to pitch well the next two years? Well I certainly don't think you can assume that at all. His career ERA is 4.05 and his career FIP is 4.18 including 4.54 in 2008 and 4.20 in 2009 amidst the two seasons that will have earned him this new deal. That doesn't instill a lot of confidence in me that he can repeat what he's been doing, although that's not to say that he won't. It just indicates to me that Grabow is probably nothing special amongst his fraternity of relievers and not someone that warranted a multi-year deal. Especially when a one-year arbitration deal at nearly the same salary could have been had or having to find a replacement through trade or free agency would have likely sufficed.

1 - speaking of my left-handed bullpen crutch rant, this was Grabow's 2007 entry in Baseball Prospectus which I found on his PECOTA page.

You can make a strong argument that no team needs a LOOGY. Mike Scioscia won 92 games and a division title in 2004 without having a lefty reliever on his team. LOOGies do more harm than good because they end up facing just as many righties than lefties as a result of walks and pinch-hitters, and take up precious roster space without providing enough innings

2 - Points and laughs at Royals

2010 Cubs Spring Training Schedule

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 16:25:26 -0500

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP Derrek Lee signs autographs in Mesa last spring. Browse more photos » The Cubs announced their spring training schedule today; it includes 15 games at Mesa and 20 on the road -- the road games include the two previously announced games vs. the White Sox in Las Vegas and the two games announced yesterday vs. the Diamondbacks at Chase Field that will end the spring season ...

Millwood or Burrell for Bradley ... or None of the Above for the Cubs

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 01:10:00 -0500

Zack Grienke became the first Kansas City Royal since Brett Saberhagen in 1985 to win the AL Cy Young award on Tuesday. The NL and AL Managers of the Year will be announced on Wednesday. In between the debate and the rumors surrounding Curtis Granderson there is Milton Bradley. By all accounts Milton Bradley's time with the Cubs is over but Jim Hendry must find a way out of the more than $21 million owed to Bradley over the next two years. Most feel Bradley will be dealt to either the...

Cubs Top Prospects and the Hot Stove

Tue, 17 Nov 2009 02:00:00 -0500

Award Week for Major League Baseball continues on Tuesday with the announcement of the AL Cy Young winner. Chris Coghlan of the Marlins and Andrew Bailey of the A's were named NL and AL Rookie of the Year on Monday. With Coghlan taking the trophy, Geovany Soto will hopefully return to the form in 2010 that won him the award last season. John Grabow was the last Cub to final for free agency on Monday. Jim Hendry reportedly is looking to lock-up Grabow before Friday by signing the southp...

Grabow and Fox File for Free Agency

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 20:13:21 -0500

According to a report from Cubs.com, John Grabow was the last of the Cubs possible free agents to file for free agency on Monday. Grabow joined Reed Johnson, Rich Harden, Kevin Gregg and Chad Fox as the five Cubs on the 2009 roster to file for free agency. The Cubs are expected to re-sign John Grabow this week before he hits the market on Friday. A report over the weekend indicated the Cubs faxed John Grabow's agent an offer sheet last Wednesday.

Cubs Top 10 Prospects by Baseball America and Minor League Free Agents

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 17:13:37 -0500

Baseball America has listed their top 10 Cubs prospects....drumroll please...

Starlin Castro
Brett Jackson
Josh Vitters
Andrew Cashner
Jay Jackson
Hak-Ju Lee
Logan Watkins
Chris Carpenter
Ryan Flaherty
D.J. LeMehieu

I was expecting Kyler Burke to make the list, but apparently repeating A ball justifiably knocked him down. You can compare and contrast with Arizona Phil's Top 15 list from last week. You can see past Baseball America top 10 lists for the Cubs over at Wiklifield.

Keeping with the minor league news, Arizona Phil has been keeping track of the Cubs minor league free agents on the right sidebar and there now appears to be an official list.

Chicago Cubs (11)

Pitchers: LHP Casey Fossum, RHP Vince Perkins, RHP Jose Pina

Catchers: Mark Johnson

Infielders: Matt Craig, Luis Rivas, Bobby Scales, Nate Spears

Outfielders: Doug Deeds, John-Ford Griffin, Brad Snyder

The only differences from Phil's list are C Robinson Chirinos and RHP Austin-Bibens-Dirx, so I assume they've already resigned with the Cubs. The rest can still sign with the Cubs and according to Phil's sidebar note, Cubs have exclusive negotiating rights until the MLB free agency filing period ends, which I believe is this Saturday.

A bit of nostalgia on that list are some ex-Cubs including(and I'm sure I missed a few): Bobby Brownlie (Atlanta), Federico Baez (Cincinnati), Mark Bellhorn (Colorado), Ryan Harvey (Colorado), Lincoln Holdzkom (Pittsburgh), Juan Mateo (Pittsburgh), Rocky Cherry (San Diego), Shingo Takatsu (San Francisco), Jackson Melian (San Francisco), Josh Kroeger (Chicago White Sox), Michael Restovich (Chicago White Sox), Jason Waddell (Detroit), RIchie Robnett (NY Yankees), Jerome Williams (Oakland), Buck Coats (Toronto).

Don't forget to enter the TCR Free Agent Frenzy contest...

Award Week for MLB ... Busy Week for the Cubs?

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 03:00:00 -0500

Last week the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger Awards were handed out and Carlos Zambrano won his third silver bat for being the best hitting pitcher in the National League. This week the majority of the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America) awards will be handed out ... NL and AL Rookie of the Year on Monday, AL Cy Young Tuesday, NL and AL Manager of the Year on Wednesday and NL Cy Young on Thursday. The Cubs have one player in the running for NL Rookie of the Year, but Randy Wells wi...