UFC 86: Why Is Tyson Griffin Such a Heavy Favorite Over Marcus Aurelio?

Filed under: UFCOne of the more intriguing fights on the UFC 86 undercard is the lightweight bout between Tyson Griffin and Marcus Aurelio. When I first saw that they were fighting, I thought it seemed like a fairly competitive bout, and I was very surprised to see that Vegas installed Griffin as a huge favorite. FightMatrix.com was surprised, too. The innovative Fight Matrix ratings have the two fighters essentially equal, with Aurelio actually very slightly ahead. So why is Griffin a -350 favorite?I guess it's because Griffin's style seems like it matches up well with Aurelio's style, and because Griffin is better known to American fans. But Aurelio is coming off back-to-back impressive showings, beating Ryan Roberts with a first-round armbar and Luke Caudillo with a first-round TKO. Before that he was on a losing streak, but split-decision losses to Clay Guida and Takanori Gomi are nothing to be ashamed of.All things considered, I'd give Griffin a slightly better than 50-50 chance of winning Saturday night. But with the odds he's getting, my money would be on Aurelio.Permalink | Email this | Comments more...