LATEST STORIES FROM BASEBALL THINK FACTORY
You’re telling me there’s a salary cap in the new CBA?
I’ve complained in a few places about the Red Sox ownership not being willing to spend a little over the luxury tax threshold to complete this roster. I could rehearse here how offering David Ortiz arbitration is a very questionable decision if you’re treating the luxury tax threshold as a hard cap, but I’d rather talk about that hard cap in the first place. Why are the...
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20 days ago
Discuss
THT: Chris Jaffe: Ten least-likely guys to break up a no-hitter
I had the ever-loving liver snaps beat out of me by two crazed Seaverinos after the Qualls hit. (sweet-streamed into one’s family milk box to get even…WINNER!)
4. (TIE) The Tom Seaver duo: April 15, 1970: Phillies’ Mike Compton (season numbers: 18 H, 110 AB, 121 PA, .164 AVG, .149 H/PA. July 9, 1969: Cubs’ Jim Qualls (season numbers: 30 H, 120 AB, 124 PA, .250 AVG, .242...
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21 days ago
A Crap Trade
Tonight, in a move I really didn’t think would happen, the Red Sox gave away Marco Scutaro for nothing. Marco Scutaro is under contract for $6M for next season. This is his dumber-than-Marcel projection:
+3 Bat +1 Run +19 Rep +6 Pos -1 Def = +28 RAR
That’s a $14M player. So, the Sox gave away an $8M bargain for Clayton Mortensen. Ugh. Clearly, what’s going on is...
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23 days ago
Most Meritorious Player: 1968 Ballot
Here are the specific rules for this election:
Candidate Eligibility: Any North American professional baseball player is eligible for the Most Meritorious Player (MMP) award including players in the top Negro Leagues or independent teams. Voters should consider the player’s on-field contribution to Major League Baseball (MLB) team(s) in that season only. If part of the season was...
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28 days ago
2013 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion
2013 (November 26, 2012)—elect 3*
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos
705 186.2 1986 Barry Bonds-LF
437 146.4 1984 Roger Clemens-P
428 73.8 1989 Craig Biggio-2B
325 68.7 1993 Mike Piazza-C
322 61.0 1989 Sammy Sosa-RF
252 75.4 1990 Curt Schilling-P
288 51.7 1992 Kenny Lofton-CF
297 41.3 1989 Steve Finley-CF
280 45.0 1983 Julio Franco-SS/2B
210 55.2 1988 David Wells-P
237 41.8 1995 Shawn Green...
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28 days ago
Mariners - Acquired Montero
Seattle Mariners acquire C Jesus Montero for P Michael Pineda and P Jose Campos
ZiPS projected Montero at .271/.333/.486 in Yankee Stadium. Good enough for a 112 OPS+. He’s going to a much tougher place to hit, so the raw stat line is not going to be nearly as pretty to get the same value. Let’s put it this way. Justin Smoak (a name not chosen at random of course) put...
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January 14, 2012
The Plan and the Payroll
The Red Sox luxury tax payroll currently stands at about $130M. When you add in projected arbitration awards for Ortiz, Ellsbury, Saltalamacchia, Bard, Bailey, and the bench players, that leaves the Red Sox with little to no room remaining under the luxury tax threshold. As I’ve argued, the Red Sox offseason should be understood as a specifically structured and cleverly executed...
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January 11, 2012
I Am Fine with This
As Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer assemble a 2012 team that looks to be, well, not very good, I find myself in an odd state of mind. Of their six biggest contributors in terms of WAR in 2011, four (Matt Garza, Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Peña, Sean Marshall) are either gone or apparently on their way out, and in no case does it appear that the Cubs have clearly superior short- or long-term...
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January 10, 2012
2012 Veterans’ Committe Ballot
The election will end on Sunday on January 8 at 8 PM EST.
Eligible candidates: Ken Boyer, Minnie Minoso, Tony Oliva, Jim Kaat, Allie Reynolds, Luis Tiant, Charlie Finley, Buzzie Bavasi, Gil Hodges, andRon Santo.
Rules:
9. Voting: The Committee shall consider all eligible candidates and voting shall be based upon the individual’s record, ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character...
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January 02, 2012
2012 BBTF Hall of Fame Ballot
IMPORTANT: Please read:
This election should follow BBWAA rules, not Hall of Merit rules. However, we hope to see only players that each voter feels belong on their ballots - if you don’t feel he really is a HOFer, then please refrain from posting that player’s name (examples of whom I am referring to are Mookie Wilson, Scott Broscius, Buddy Biancalana - players who were well...
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January 02, 2012
Reddick / Bailey Trade: Rapid Reaction
This looks like a trade where both players involved may be significantly worse than they’re perceived. Josh Reddick was a useful regular last year, but his overall track record remains terrible, and ZiPS projects him as basically a replacement level RF with an 85 OPS+. Andrew Bailey is a fabulous pitcher when healthy (career 2.07 ERA and 2.74 FIP), but he’s pitched a full...
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December 29, 2011
2012 Results: Palmeiro… Reuschel… Cone… for the Hall of Merit!
Slugging first baseman Rafael Palmeiro, in his second year of eligibility, was the top vote-getter this election by grabbing 70% of all possible points.
NL hurler Rick Reuschel was number two this year with 49% after 17 years on a ballot, while Met and Yankee pitcher David Cone became the last inductee of 2012 with 44% in his sixth year of eligibility.
Rounding out the top-ten...
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December 28, 2011
Reddick / Bailey Trade: Rapid Reaction
This looks like a trade where both players involved may be significantly worse than they’re perceived. Josh Reddick was a useful regular last year, but his overall track record remains terrible, and ZiPS projects him as basically a replacement level RF with an 85 OPS+. Andrew Bailey is a fabulous pitcher when healthy (career 2.07 ERA and 2.74 FIP), but he’s pitched a full...
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December 28, 2011
Most Meritorious Player : 1968 Discussion
The year of the pitcher and our final year voting for 10 per ballot. Dominant aces propelled the Tigers and Cardinals into the postseason.
Voting will end on January 25th 2012.
Win BB-ref
Shares WAR
Bob Gibson 34.411.9
Denny McLain 32.75.9
Luis Tiant 27.77.2
Dave McNally 24.74.7
Fergie Jenkins 23.76.9
Tom Seaver 22.9 7...
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December 23, 2011
BBTF’s Hall of Merit Discussion :: Most Meritorious Player Discussion : 1968 Discussion
Most Meritorious Player: 1968 Discussion
The year of the pitcher and our final year voting for 10 per ballot. Dominant aces propelled the Tigers and Cardinals into the postseason.
Voting will end on January 25th 2012.
Win BB-ref
Shares WAR
Bob Gibson 34.411.9
Denny McLain 32.75.9
Luis Tiant 27.77.2
Dave McNally 24.74.7
Fergie...
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December 23, 2011
i have no idea what the Sox are going to do next
The first round of the offseason is nearly over. For the Red Sox it is over – the one first tier FA left is Prince Fielder, and he’s obviously not headed our way. I had hoped the Red Sox would find the money to go after Darvish or Wilson, and Wilson’s below-market deal has left every team in need of pitching (read: every team) wishing they’d been involved. Darvish is...
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December 22, 2011
Most Meritorious Player: 1967 Results
In a unanimous decision, Yaz tops the poll!
The NL MMP is Ron Santo. Jim Bunning is top pitcher.
12345678910Pts
Yastrzemski13195
Santo121177
Clemente7411157
Aaron26311148
Killebrew31441144
Kaline16113 98
Cepeda113132 95
Bunning11115 84
Frobinson1231 60
McCarver...
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December 15, 2011
The Closing Window
The Red Sox entered the offseason with just three acceptable starting pitchers and two good relievers under contract. The primary goal of the offseason for Ben Cherington was to acquire pitching. It is now mid-December, and the most significant pitching acquisition by the Boston Red Sox has been the signing of Jesse Carlson to a non-guaranteed contract. Good free agent targets...
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December 12, 2011
2012 Hall of Merit Ballot
Sorry about not getting this posted Monday. I was having issues with the thread-creation website.
The election will end December 21.
********
Joe posted this last year, but it won’t hurt to include it here again:
This was an issue last year, so I’ll repeat it now for clarification . . . the posting of the ballot to the discussion thread for new voters is not just a formality...
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December 07, 2011
Most Meritorious Player: 1967 ballot
Here are the specific rules for this election:
Candidate Eligibility: Any North American professional baseball player is eligible for the Most Meritorious Player (MMP) award including players in the top Negro Leagues or independent teams. Voters should consider the player’s on-field contribution to Major League Baseball (MLB) team(s) in that season only. If part of the season was...
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November 30, 2011
New Manager Likes to Do Stuff
Bobby Valentine is going to be the new Red Sox manager, pending agreement on a contract. I’m generally happy about this. It’s not just that Valentine has a good record as a manager, but more that he’s got upside. A manager like Valentine could win you a handful of games – and he’s going to try to win those games. Most statistically-inclined clubs have opted for managers...
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November 29, 2011
What going on down Jersey St?
In the past two days, things seem to have gotten a bit weird. The managerial search had been progressing in its normal, boring way. Cherington had interviewed normal, boring candidates like Dale Sveum and Pete Mackanin and Torey Lovullo. They were looking for a Francona clone, a good company man who will carry out the directives of management, handle the media well, and keep...
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November 18, 2011
The Dumber-than-Marcels: Free Agent Starters
My first run-through of the dumber-than-Marcel projections for position players left me quite skeptical of the top-line free agents. Now I’ve done the pitchers, my sense is that once again it’s the middle-class free agents who will offer better value.
These projections are based on a 3/2/1/2 regressed weighted average of pitcher value stats, a 50-50 split of Fangraphs...
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November 16, 2011
You Will Never See Anything Like Him Again: Jonathan Papelbon
I’m not saying that the Red Sox cannot replace Jonathan Papelbon’s production going forward, but I am saying that what he did for them (us) was incredible. With a 197 ERA+ for his career, a 1.00 ERA in the playoffs, Paps was just about as close to perfect for the Sox as a closer can be. Add to that the fake intense face, the dancing, the goofy Ricky Bobby persona, and you’ve...
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November 11, 2011
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