LATEST STORIES FROM BASKETBALL PREDICTIONS
San Diego State With An Impressive Win At Wyoming
#12 San Diego State 52, Wyoming 42Had Wyoming won this game, the media would have told us this was a shocking "upset". Of course, in reality it was Wyoming that was favored by a couple of points in Vegas, and Wyoming that was picked as the favorite by both Sagarin and Pomeroy. And that's before it's pointed out that San Diego State was coming off of two gigantic...
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19 days ago
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Virginia Tech Bounces Back, Wins At Virginia
Virginia Tech 47, #17 Virginia 45Every Seth Greenberg season at Virginia Tech has felt the same. They have a bunch of bad losses, but then manage to get a huge scalp or two in ACC play and put themselves on the Tournament bubble. And the past few years, of course, they've come up just short of an NCAA Tournament bid. But this season, they were digging themselves a deeper hole...
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20 days ago
W-7 BP68
It's been a busy week at the top of the bracket. I've had the same four teams as 1 seeds since April, and I talked this week for the first time about switching it up by dropping North Carolina out due to the Dexter Strickland injury. But I decided to keep them there because Duke hasn't impressed lately either, and I'm not going to become convinced that Duke is going...
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23 days ago
UNLV Blows Out New Mexico
#20 UNLV 80, New Mexico 63This match-up was an absolute blowout in the second half. This was a sloppy game (the teams combined for 33 offensive rebounds to only 30 defensive rebounds, as well as 35 turnovers), but UNLV had 11 steals and 6 blocks, both of which allowed to get out on fast breaks for easy baskets. With the crowd behind them, New Mexico seemed to just get demoralized...
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23 days ago
#1 Goes Down: Notre Dame Beats Syracuse
Notre Dame 67, #1 Syracuse 58The big news prior to this game was that Fab Melo wouldn't be joining Syracuse for this road trip. It's been reported, though not confirmed by Melo or the school, that it's a lingering academic issue. Regardless, the loss of Melo caused a lot of people to pick the Irish as an upset pick this morning. The thing is, as important as Melo is to...
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23 days ago
Florida State Ends Duke's 45-Game Home Winning Streak
Florida State 76, #4 Duke 73Florida State's offense has been streaky all season long. They scored above 1.05 PPP for the first four games of the year, causing a lot of people (including me) to wonder if their offense had turned the corner. That seemed to be a silly thought for much of the past six or seven weeks, however, as they've had some truly atrocious performances....
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23 days ago
Missouri Beats Baylor, Kansas Beats Texas
#5 Missouri 89, #3 Baylor 88This was a wild game played at a frenetic pace, even if it was a bit sloppy (37 combined turnovers). At 77 possessions, this was the fastest-paced game Mizzou has played all season, and one possession short of the fastest-paced game Baylor has played. Ricardo Ratliffe had 27 points on 11-for-14 shooting, but he is a player who creates little of his own...
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23 days ago
Is Dayton The Atlantic Ten Favorite?
Dayton 87, Xavier 72Xavier actually shot 8-for-14 in this game behind the arc, but it didn't make a difference. They were throttled here by Dayton. Kevin Dillard was the star for Dayton, scoring 16 points with 9 assists. I thought that Xavier turned themselves into too much of a two-man team. Tu Holloway is their superstar, of course, but somebody else other than Mark Lyons has...
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23 days ago
North Carolina Beats Virginia Tech, Loses Dexter Strickland
#8 North Carolina 82, Virginia Tech 68This was an impressive win for North Carolina. They obviously came in highly motivated off of that embarrassing loss to Florida State, but Virginia Tech was desperate for a big win as well. And Virginia Tech does this every year - they have bad losses and then come home and knock off North Carolina or Duke. It's why they end up on the bubble...
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23 days ago
BYU Falls To A Non-Big Three In The WCC
Loyola-Marymount 82, BYU 68The WCC has three teams that are far, far better than the rest of the conference. Gonzaga, BYU and St. Mary's are all in a good position for an at-large bid, while entering this game there was no other team in the conference in the Pomeroy Top 150. It seemed like the conference might just come down to how the Big Three did against each other, and that...
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23 days ago
Texas Loses Another Close One
Kansas State 84, Texas 80It's a frustrating season for Texas so far, as they keep coming up just short against quality teams. They are 0-3 in games decided by five points or less, and have two losses this season that wouldn't have happened if J'Covan Brown hadn't missed much of the second half (once after being ejected, and once after getting hurt). This game was...
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24 days ago
UCF Beats An Underrated Memphis Team
Central Florida 68, Memphis 67This was the loudest UCF crowd I've ever heard (not that I watch that many UCF games) and it was the best the team has looked all season long. I don't think that's a coincidence. They only turned it over eight times and collected six blocks. They actually would have won this game fairly easily if Memphis didn't hit 7-for-11 on threes...
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24 days ago
Nebraska Over Indiana: Not As Shocking As You'd Think
Nebraska 70, #13 Indiana 69This game isn't the shocking upset that many are making it out to be. First of all, note that Nebraska isn't as bad of a team as their resume suggests. Getting Jorge Brian Diaz and Dylan Talley back has been huge. Those two combined for 20 points and 8 offensive rebounds in this game. Also note that Nebraska only really plays a seven man rotation - when...
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24 days ago
Michigan Escapes After A Frenetic Finish vs Michigan State
#19 Michigan 60, #9 Michigan State 59Stu Douglass scored on a layup with around 36 seconds to go to put Michigan up by one. Michigan State then had about three chances in the final seconds to score the winning basket, but none of them fell. Michigan State finished 0-for-4 from the field with a turnover in the final two minutes. And all of that after a 16-2 second half run to overcome...
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26 days ago
Kansas Handles Baylor
#7 Kansas 92, #3 Baylor 74This was a fun game, but I'm not sure we learned a whole lot. Despite the dumb human poll rankings, most people who follow college basketball closely know that Kansas is the better team, and the Jayhawks were at home. On top of that, Baylor's offense relies on offensive rebounds and put-backs, and few teams are as good at preventing those as Kansas...
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26 days ago
Ohio State Thrashes Indiana While The Missouri Valley Scuffles
#5 Ohio State 80, #8 Indiana 63I don't think that anybody paying attention was too surprised by this result. This game got plenty of hype because of the programs involved and their rankings in the polls, but this was a revenge game for the Buckeyes. And remember, Indiana had absolutely everything go right for them in Bloomington, and that game still came down to the final seconds...
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26 days ago
UNLV Impresses In Loss To San Diego State
#22 San Diego State 69, #12 UNLV 67My regular readers know that I look at wins and losses much differently than the mainstream media and pollsters. The response from them after this game was, naturally, that it was a great game for San Diego State and we need to worry about UNLV. Just look at the Coaches Poll. This was the only game UNLV played all week, and they were dropped from...
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27 days ago
W-8 BP68
The big change to my bracket projections once we hit January 15th is that I transition to the Full Bubble. What this means is that I will list every team with a "mathematical chance" of an at-large bid. It means listing a bunch of teams that seem to have no plausible chance at an at-large bid, simply because they could theoretically get onto the bubble if they went on a...
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January 15, 2012
More Pac-12 Chaos: Oregon Knocks Off Arizona
Oregon 59, Arizona 57Oregon got off to a quick start in this game, leading by 12 points at the half and by as much as 17 in the second half. Arizona fought back, and actually took the lead briefly late. Garrett Sim hit a three to put Oregon back up by three points, and then Josiah Turner hit 1-of-2 at the free throw line to cut the lead to two with 85 seconds left. Arizona then had...
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January 14, 2012
Fired Up FSU Eviscerates North Carolina
Florida State 90, #3 North Carolina 57Even during that horrible 2009-10 season when North Carolina lost 11 of 14 games at one point and ended up in the NIT, they still never had a game where they lost by 33. This was just a debacle in every conceivable way for them. They even struggled getting off the court at the end of the game. There was a bizarre moment with around 15 seconds...
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January 14, 2012
Oklahoma Upsets Kansas State
Oklahoma 82, #18 Kansas State 73Kansas State had played well over the past week, beating down Missouri and then nearly taking out Baylor (they lost by two points). But the concern for Kansas State is always that they're a totally different team away from home. And while they did win at Virginia Tech back in early December, their first road game in conference was that embarrassing...
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January 14, 2012
UConn Impresses At Notre Dame
#16 UConn 67, Notre Dame 53UConn found out yesterday that Ryan Boatright would be suspended for this game as his academic eligibility continues to be an issue (he missed the start of the season with a suspension as well). Considering the improved play from Notre Dame the past few weeks and that they entered this game on a 29-game home winning streak, I thought that they'd actually...
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January 14, 2012
Duke escapes Virginia
#6 Duke 61, #17 Virginia 58I don't mean to pick on Seth Davis on my twitter account so often. He's not really any worse than most of the other television analysts. Like most of them, he doesn't understand tempo-free stats. As I like to say, if you tell your team to hold the ball for an extra ten seconds on every offensive possession then you're going to give up fewer...
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January 14, 2012
Saint Mary's Destroys Gonzaga
Saint Mary's 83, #23 Gonzaga 62This game was actually relatively close in the first half, with the Saint Mary's lead peaking at around nine points, but the Gaels pulled away in the second half. The Gaels were tremendously efficient, totaling up 21 assists and only 5 turnovers as a team. Matthew Dellavedova was on fire (5-for-10 on threes, 5-for-6 on twos) and Brad Waldow...
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January 14, 2012
Indiana Falls At Home To Minnesota
Minnesota 77, #8 Indiana 74I talked almost two weeks ago about Indiana and games like this. Their wins over Ohio State and Kentucky were tremendous, but I pointed out that pulling a couple of big upset wins is not all a team needs to contend for a Big Ten title or a 2, 3 or 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The next step an elite team has to take is to consistently win the games they...
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January 13, 2012
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