LATEST STORIES FROM FRIAR FORECAST

Well Represented

As the top 100 lists are making their rounds, I can’t help but feel proud to be a Padres fan at this time. The Padres find themselves well represented. Padres prospects appearing on reputable top 100 lists include Yonder Alonso, Cory Spangenberg, Jed Gyorko, Yasmani Grandal, Austin Hedges, Keyvious Sampson, Robbie Erlin, Joseph Wieland, Casey Kelly, Rymer Liriano, Jaff Decker,...
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March 28, 2012  |  Discuss

Previewing the 2012 Lake Elsinore Storm: Pitching Staff

Now that the thrill of being the 2011 Cal League champs has settled, coaching moves have been made, and the cold winter months begin to fade into the unbearably hot summer weather, it is time to start talking about the 2012 Lake Elsinore Storm.  The 2011 version of the Storm was one expected to be led by hard throwing right hander Matt Lollis.  Unfortunately, after 19 mostly unsuccessful...
Via Friar Forecast
February 23, 2012  |  Discuss

Ten names to know: 2012 MLB Draft Prospects

Baseball is in the air. Players are beginning to report to spring training. The Padres appear to be nearly set with only a couple 25 man spots up for grabs. Although the 2012 draft is not until June, the Padres surely have scouts getting ready for the high school and college baseball season about to begin. With the seventhoverall pick in the first round of the 2012 MLB Draft, the...
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February 22, 2012  |  Discuss

Forecasting Prince Fielder

At THT: a look at how Prince Fielder might age in Detroit. You may recall Fielder signed a whopping nine-year, $214 million deal with the Tigers earlier this offseason.
Via Friar Forecast
February 09, 2012  |  Discuss

What to expect from Luke Gregerson

We’ve noted many times over the years that relief pitchers are a fickle bunch. We only get 60 or 70 innings to evaluate each season, making the effort of predicting their future performance an at times futile one. Luke Gregerson was dominant in his first two seasons in San Diego, but despite a drop in ERA, he struggled in 2011. The numbers: Year Inn. ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP ...
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February 06, 2012  |  Discuss

What to expect from Luke Gregerson

We’ve noted many times over the years that relief pitchers are a fickle bunch. We only get 60 or 70 innings to evaluate each season, making the effort of predicting their future performance an at times futile one. Luke Gregerson was dominant in his first two seasons in San Diego, but despite a drop in ERA, he struggled in 2011. The numbers: Year Inn. ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP ...
Via Friar Forecast
February 06, 2012  |  Discuss

New Pitchf/x tool

Check out Brooks Baseball for a ridiculously awesome PITCHf/x tool released by Dan Brooks, Harry Pavlidis, and Lucas Apostoleris (among others, I’m sure). Now stop drooling. Here’s the introduction article. Also, be sure to check out The Hardball Times newly unveiled Dispatch section, where THTers analyze the game using PITCHf/x data. On the subject, I’m hoping to add more...
Via Friar Forecast
February 04, 2012  |  Discuss

Padres add Micah Owings

The San Diego Padres have signed right-handed pitcher/hitter Micah Owings to a one-year, $1 million deal. Dan Hayes explains the specifics: Owings — 8-0 with a 3.57 ERA in 33 games (four starts) for the Arizona Diamondbacks last season — signed a split contract with the Padres, according to a team source, which means he could begin the 2012 season in the minors. General manager...
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February 03, 2012  |  Discuss

Organizational value and perspective

I thought I would take a look at the Padres current roster and offer my opinions and thoughts on how the Padres may be viewing/valuing their established players. I am leaving off some of the younger players that still need some more evaluation time and/or are not expected to receive a lot of playing time in 2012 at the major league level. I would like to see some more data and playing...
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February 02, 2012  |  Discuss

Minor thoughts: Runs per game, by league

Over the past few months, we’ve talked a lot about San Diego Padres prospects. In fact, we’ve always spent a lot of time covering prospects here at Friar Forecast. There’s arguably no better time than right now, though, as the Padres have a consensus top five farm system and one of the deepest in baseball. Scouting is obviously important in the minor leagues, especially at...
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February 01, 2012  |  Discuss

Previewing the 2012 Lake Elsinore Storm: Offense

Last year the High-A Lake Elsinore Storm won the Cal League Championship, so they will look to build on that momentum in 2012.  Of course they will do so with nearly a completely different roster, but that is just some of the fun of following minor league baseball. The Storm will have at least two first round picks in their lineup, which should boost the offense.  The Storm’s...
Via Friar Forecast
January 31, 2012  |  Discuss

That other Decker

If all baseball articles posted online followed Twitter’s hashtag format, then #prospects would be a Worldwide Trend right now. Analysts everywhere are crafting their top lists and blowing up websites and blogs. Books are lining store shelves and arriving in mailboxes to the collective glee of their recipients. Alexander Pope’s famous phrase, “Hope springs eternal…” is...
Via Friar Forecast
January 30, 2012  |  Discuss

Yonder Alonso loves Petco

Over at the U-T, Bill Center has an article on Yonder Alonso, with a lot of quotes from the new San Diego Padres first basemen: “A lot of left-handed hitters and first basemen are thinking home runs,” Alonso continued. “That’s not the type of left-handed hitter I am. “When I look at Petco Park, I don’t see how far away the fences are. I see a lot of grass. I feel like...
Via Friar Forecast
January 28, 2012  |  Discuss

THT Forecasts

By now, you probably know I write a bi-weekly article for The Hardball Times. As I’ve mentioned before, it’s a great opportunity to write for a site with a rich history of producing awesome content. This year I have a chance to write the San Diego Padres player comments for THT Forecasts, which you should probably buy. I’m taking over the duties from the venerable Geoff Young...
Via Friar Forecast
January 26, 2012  |  Discuss

The next Erubiel Durazo

Generally, I’m hesitant to compare prospects to established major leaguers. There are so many subtle differences in player skill-sets that, without exhaustive research, I’m never all that comfortable with the comparisons. Yonder Alonso = Erubiel Durazo After watching some video of Yonder Alonso, though, (notably the embedded one below from Scouting the Sally) I can’t help...
Via Friar Forecast
January 25, 2012  |  Discuss

Greg Maddux or Kevin Slowey?

Recently, I found myself pondering and age old mystery: Do squirrels fart? I know….profound, right? Naturally, I then started to wonder if control artist pitchers would be any better at playing darts than pitchers with ordinary or no control, another one of life’s great mysteries. You can temper your enthusiasm as this article will not answer those mysteries. Some of you may...
Via Friar Forecast
January 24, 2012  |  Discuss

A closer look at Vince Belnome

Justin over at Chicken Friars sort of beat me to the punch on this article, with his recent piece on infielder Vince Belnome. It’s a good read and covers the basics of who Belnome is as a player and potential prospect. I won’t regurgitate too much of his analysis here (hence, the link); however, I will explore some of his performance in a bit more detail and go so far as to...
Via Friar Forecast
January 23, 2012  |  Discuss

Rockies acquire Marco Scutaro from Red Sox

In a curious move, the Colorado Rockies acquired shortstop/second basemen Marco Scutaro from the Boston Red Sox for right-handed pitcher Clayton Mortensen. Scutaro will make a more-than-reasonable $6 million in 2012 before becoming a free agent in 2013. He’ll slide over to second in Colorado, with Troy Tulowitzki entrenched at short, and offer an immediate upgrade over Chris Nelson...
Via Friar Forecast
January 22, 2012  |  Discuss

Follow Friar Forecast on Twitter

It’s the weekend — a good time for a little blog-promotion. Many of you already follow us, but if not consider following @FriarForecast on Twitter. We don’t get too carried away with tweeting, but you’ll find links to our content here, links to notable stuff around the interwebs, and some good ol’ Padres/baseball/sabermetric discussion. That’s a combination you cannot resist. Thanks!
Via Friar Forecast
January 21, 2012  |  Discuss

Friday links

In new(ish) semi-weekly tradition, here are some links for your perusal: At Chicken Friars, Justin hopes that the Padres can extend Cameron Maybin this offseason. He’s not alone. Maybin recently switched agents, delaying any chance of ironing out an extension in the near future. Hopefully he’ll get locked up soon enough. Tom Krasovic and Friarhood held a chat. Tom answered a...
Via Friar Forecast
January 20, 2012  |  Discuss

Latest at THT on Padres offseason

My latest article at The Hardball Times offers some analysis of the San Diego Padres offseason. While we’ve covered most of the transactions here at Friar Forecast, the article offers a complete recap plus some thoughts on the direction of the organization in general. Check it out.
Via Friar Forecast
January 19, 2012  |  Discuss

Thoughts on losing Simon Castro

When the San Diego Padres acquired Carlos Quentin from the Chicago White Sox, they gave up a couple of pitching prospects in Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez. We’ve already discussed the trade in general, so now let’s focus more on Castro. Right hander Simon Castro was signed as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic back in 2006. He was quite raw, obviously...
Via Friar Forecast
January 19, 2012  |  Discuss

Previewing the 2012 Fort Wayne TinCaps: Hitting

Fort Wayne pitching staff  For most of the 2011 season the Single-A Fort Wayne TinCaps relied almost solely on one hitter and one hitter only, Midwest League MVP Rymer Liriano.  The offense was so desolate that they were Padre-esque.  The 2011 TinCaps scored two or fewer runs in 32 of their first 72 games.  Their fortune started changing in the second half when Connor Powers...
Via Friar Forecast
January 18, 2012  |  Discuss

Chat with Friar Forecast: Today (1/17/12) at 10:00 AM PST

A chat with yours truly will be live today at 10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST. Please, feel free to bring all of your questions regarding the San Diego Padres offseason, the upcoming year, sabermetrics, you name it. Hopefully we’ll have a good time, answer a bunch of questions, and make chats a more regular feature here at Friar Forecast. Or I’ll sit here talking to myself and we...
Via Friar Forecast
January 17, 2012  |  Discuss

A case for Cord Phelps

There’s been plenty of talk this offseason about moves the San Diego Padres have made. Like them or not, Josh Byrnes has not hesitated to pull the trigger on deals that he thinks are best for the team. What has also been discussed around the virtual watercooler are the moves Byrnes hasn’t made. The one I’m interested in the most for this piece is the acquisition (or lack thereof...
Via Friar Forecast
January 16, 2012  |  Discuss
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