LATEST STORIES FROM THE FOOTBALL FAN SPOT

Oakland Raiders at Seattle Seahawks: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick

Oakland Raiders (0-7) at Seattle Seahawks (4-3) Despite losing to the Cowboys in their last home game, the Seahawks have still been close to automatic at home recently. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 43-20 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 42-20-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by 7.49 points per game. This is opposed...
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21 hours ago  |  Discuss

Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick

Indianapolis Colts (5-3) at New York Giants (3-4) The Colts surprisingly lost in Pittsburgh last week by the final score of 51-34 as 3.5 point favorites. This week, they are once again 3.5 point road favorites here in New York against the Giants, but I think the result will be different for four reasons. The first reason is that Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano, as is the case with most...
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1 day ago  |  Discuss

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick

St. Louis Rams (2-5) at San Francisco 49ers (4-3) The Rams were blown out last week in Kansas City as 7 point underdogs, but I have reasons to believe that they won’t get blown out here as 10 point underdogs in San Francisco. One, they are in their second straight road game, rather than last week when they were in their first road game. Teams are 108-70 ATS as road underdogs off...
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1 day ago  |  Discuss

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick

New York Jets (1-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-3) This game has had the biggest line movement from last week to this week, as the Chiefs were just 5 point favorites in the early line last week, as opposed to 10 point favorites now. The reason for that is obvious as the Jets were just blown out at home 43-23 by the Bills, a game in which Geno Smith completed 2 passes, threw 3 interceptions...
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1 day ago  |  Discuss

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick

New Orleans Saints (3-4) at Carolina Panthers (3-4-1) I’ve been high on the Saints this whole season, picking them to win the Super Bowl before the season and not really wavering from that a ton even as they got out to a 2-4 start. That 2-4 start was largely a result of starting the season with 4 of 6 on the road, a significant injury to Jimmy Graham (which he’s over now), a...
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1 day ago  |  Discuss

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-6) at Cleveland Browns (4-3) The Browns are at the end of one of the easiest stretches of play any team in the league has this season, as they went to 0-6 Jacksonville, hosted 0-6 Oakland, and now host 1-6 Tampa Bay. However, next week they have to go to Cincinnati for Thursday Night Football. Teams are 85-105 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional favorites, including...
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2 days ago  |  Discuss

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick

Denver Broncos (6-1) at New England Patriots (6-2) On the season, the Patriots are just 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, despite their 6-2 record, as they’ve been overly reliant on a +11 turnover margin. They are moving the chains at a 74.91% rate, as opposed to 73.18% for their opponents, a differential of 1.53%. The Broncos, meanwhile, are #1 in that statistic...
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2 days ago  |  Discuss

Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 8

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move...
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2 days ago  |  Discuss

2014 Week 8 NFL Pick Results

Against the Spread: 10-5 Straight Up: 11-4 Pick of the Week: 1-0 High Confidence: 1-0 Medium Confidence: 3-2 Low Confidence: 2-3 No Confidence: 3-0 Upset Picks: 1-1 Against the Spread: 76-44-1 (.633) Straight Up: 82-38-1 (.683) Pick of the Week: 5-3 High Confidence: 5-6 Medium Confidence: 29-9 Low Confidence: 17-14-1 No Confidence: 20-12 Upset Picks: 10-8 Survivor Picks: 6-2 (PHI...
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2 days ago  |  Discuss

Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

Oakland Raiders (0-6) at Cleveland Browns (3-3) The Browns lost last week in previously 0-6 Jacksonville, doing so in embarrassing fashion, losing by the finale score of 24-6 and getting dominated in the chain game. They moved the chains at a mere 46.43% rate, as opposed to 65.71% for the Jaguars, a differential of -19.29% that was the 2nd worst by a team last week. That brought...
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5 days ago  |  Discuss

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

Seattle Seahawks (3-3) at Carolina Panthers (3-3-1) The Seahawks failed to even win last week as significant favorites in St. Louis and now they’re significant favorites again here in Carolina. I like their chances of bouncing back and getting back in the win column here though. For one, this is the Seahawks’ 2nd of two road games, which tends to be an easier time for teams than...
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5 days ago  |  Discuss

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

Buffalo Bills (4-3) at New York Jets (1-6) This line shifted from even last week to now the Jets being favored by a field goal. The primary reason for that has to be the Percy Harvin trade, as people don’t seem to realize that Harvin wasn’t doing much in Seattle this season and that he probably doesn’t know the entire Jets playbook yet or have chemistry developed with quarterback...
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6 days ago  |  Discuss

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

Indianapolis Colts (5-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3) The Colts are arguably the best team in the NFL right now, or at least they’ve played like it through 7 games. With the exception of a 3 point home loss as 3 point home favorites to the Eagles, the Colts have covered every game this season. Both of their losses came against teams that currently have one loss and they came by...
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6 days ago  |  Discuss

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

Houston Texans (3-3) at Tennessee Titans (2-5) The Texans are road favorites here, but they could easily be home underdogs next week when they host the Eagles. Road favorites are 76-118 ATS since 1989 before being home underdogs, including 18-27 ATS as divisional road favorites before being non-divisional home underdogs, as that upcoming game tends to be a major distraction. Even...
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6 days ago  |  Discuss

St. Louis Rams at Kansas City Chiefs: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

St. Louis Rams (2-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-3) The Chiefs have proven to be the real deal this year. A year after relying on weak competition, an unsustainable turnover margin, and no injuries to go 11-5, the Chiefs have now knocked off New England and San Diego and come within a touchdown of both Denver and San Francisco on the road, 4 teams that could easily be playoff teams...
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6 days ago  |  Discuss

Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

Miami Dolphins (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6) I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, the Jaguars are in a bad spot, having to go to Cincinnati next week where they will almost certainly be double digit underdogs (the early line is 11). Teams are 40-81 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally...
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6 days ago  |  Discuss

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

Philadelphia Eagles (5-1) at Arizona Cardinals (5-1) I’m not happy that these two teams are playing each other because I think they’re two of the most overrated teams in football. Neither is as good as their record and yet one will advance to 6-1, though I guess that’ll make for easier betting situations in the future. The Eagles are 5-1 on the strength of a +6 margin in return...
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6 days ago  |  Discuss

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

Washington Redskins (2-5) at Dallas Cowboys (6-1) Last week I picked against the Cowboys when they planned the Giants here at home in Dallas. That didn’t work out as the Cowboys won 31-21 as 6.5 point favorites, but it could have easily been a different result (against the spread). The Giants led 14-7 earlier and the game would have been a lot closer if not for two Larry Donnell...
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6 days ago  |  Discuss

Chicago Bears at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

Chicago Bears (3-4) at New England Patriots (5-2) The Bears were embarrassed last week at home by the Dolphins, but that’s because the Dolphins were in a fantastic spot, with an incredibly easy game against the Jaguars up next, while the Bears were caught looking forward to this one. I like the Bears’ chances of bouncing back this week as they’ll be completely focused against...
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7 days ago  |  Discuss

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

Baltimore Ravens (5-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-2-1) The Bengals were embarrassed on the road in Indianapolis last week, getting blown out by the final score of 27-0. Now they’re favored to beat the 5-2 Ravens. You should put all your money on Baltimore as underdogs right? Well, that’s ignoring the Bengals’ home dominance and the Ravens’ recent road struggles. Since the start...
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7 days ago  |  Discuss

Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

Green Bay Packers (5-2) at New Orleans Saints (2-4) The Saints have been incredible at home over the past few years. They are 32-11 ATS at home since 2008 in the games which Drew Brees and Sean Payton were involved.  On top of that, they are 17-1-1 ATS at home over their last 19 home games with Drew Brees and Sean Payton. They’ve won all 18 of those games by an average of about...
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7 days ago  |  Discuss

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

San Diego Chargers (5-2) at Denver Broncos (5-1) The Broncos have generally been very good at home in the Peyton Manning era, going 14-7 ATS as home favorites of 3 or more. That hasn’t been the case against these Chargers, who have covered in all 3 instances in Denver as 3+ point underdogs since 2012. However, it’s very possible that could be an anomaly as it’s just 3 data...
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8 days ago  |  Discuss

Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons in London: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

Detroit Lions (5-2) at Atlanta Falcons (2-5) in London This is technically a home game for the Falcons, but it’s a neutral site game in London. Given that, we’re getting significant line value with the Lions as either the Lions are being overrated or the Falcons are being underrated. The Lions rank 7th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 70...
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9 days ago  |  Discuss

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

Minnesota Vikings (2-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-5) Last week, the Vikings lost in Buffalo on a last second touchdown. However, it was still only a one point loss. I like the Vikings’ chances of actually getting the win here this week a good amount for several reasons. One, they’re playing an inferior opponent as compared to last week. Buffalo isn’t a good football team,...
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9 days ago  |  Discuss

2014 Week 7 NFL Pick Results

Against the Spread: 9-6 Straight Up: 12-3 Pick of the Week: 1-0 High Confidence: 1-1 Medium Confidence: 5-0 Low Confidence: 1-2 No Confidence: 1-3 Upset Picks: 1-0 Against the Spread: 66-39-1 Straight Up: 71-34-1 Pick of the Week: 4-3 High Confidence: 4-6 Medium Confidence: 26-7 Low Confidence: 15-11-1 No Confidence: 17-12 Upset Picks: 9-7 Survivor Picks: 5-2 (PHI, GB, NO, SD, DET, NO, BAL)
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9 days ago  |  Discuss
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