LATEST STORIES FROM THE FOOTBALL FAN SPOT

Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

Minnesota Vikings (2-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-3) The Bills have generally been very good at home over the past 2 seasons, going 7-3 ATS in Buffalo, but they’re only 1-1 ATS as favorites. I think this line is way too high at 5.5. The Bills are 3-3, but they’re not as good as their record, moving the chains at a 64.16% rate, as opposed to 69.54% for their opponents, a differential...
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2 days ago  |  Discuss

Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

Seattle Seahawks (3-2) at St. Louis Rams (1-4) The Seahawks had a very disappointing loss at home to the Cowboys last week, a 30-23 game that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score. That was just the Seahawks 2nd home loss since they drafted Russell Wilson in 2012. However, they generally bounce back off a loss, as good teams tend to. They are 7-2 ATS off a loss in the Russell...
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2 days ago  |  Discuss

San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

San Francisco 49ers (4-2) at Denver Broncos (4-1) I’m completely torn on this one as there’s conflicting stuff on both sides. On one hand, the Broncos have a big divisional game against the Chargers up next in just 4 days on Thursday Night Football. Teams are 33-55 ATS since 2008 as favorites before Thursday Night games, including 17-31 ATS as favorites before a divisional Thursday...
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2 days ago  |  Discuss

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

Houston Texans (3-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3) People are pretty down on the Steelers here after their loss to the Browns as the public is all over the Texans. I love fading the public, especially when the public is on the underdog. If the Texans are really as likely to win as the public thinks, why is this line 3.5? The odds makers generally have a better sense of how good teams...
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2 days ago  |  Discuss

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

Cleveland Browns (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6) There are reasons to take the Jaguars this week. Teams that are 0-5 or worse are 43-20 ATS since 1989 as underdogs off of a loss of 1-8 points. The Jaguars almost got their first win of the season last week in a two point loss in Tennessee and they should be able to carry that into this week and give themselves a shot at their...
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2 days ago  |  Discuss

Arizona Cardinals at Oakland Raiders: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

Arizona Cardinals (4-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-5) The Cardinals are 4-1 and have one of the best records in football, but they’re a very flawed, fraudulent 4-1. The Cardinals are just +10 in point differential despite their record and they’ve needed to win the turnover battle by 8 just to do that. Winning the turnover battle consistently is very hard to do so that’s going to...
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2 days ago  |  Discuss

Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

Miami Dolphins (2-3) at Chicago Bears (3-3) All the trends say the Dolphins are the right side here. While the Bears have to go to New England next week, one of the toughest places in the NFL to win, the Dolphins go to Jacksonville, arguably the easiest place in the NFL to win. Teams usually cover before being significant road favorites, as there are no distractions on the horizon...
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2 days ago  |  Discuss

Seattle Seahawks trade WR Percy Harvin to the New York Jets

Trade for Seahawks: A lot of people are saying this move was a mistake for the Seahawks because trading him now means they’re going to end up paying him 18.3 million for 27 catches and 238 snaps played (including post-season). That’s about 678K per catch and about 64.6K per snap played. The Seahawks gave up a first and third round pick for Harvin about 19 months ago, in addition...
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2 days ago  |  Discuss

Tennessee Titans at Washington Redskins: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

Tennessee Titans (2-4) at Washington Redskins (1-5) At first glance, it looks like we’re getting line value with the Redskins. Despite the Redskins’ 1-5 record, they are 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 73.50% rate, as opposed to 71.74% for their opponents. Meanwhile, the Titans are 29th at -7.00%, moving the chains at a 69.71% rate, as...
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3 days ago  |  Discuss

New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

New Orleans Saints (2-3) at Detroit Lions (4-2) I still believe in the Saints. They’re 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a rate 81.82%, while their opponents are moving them at a 78.71%, a differential of 3.11% for the Saints. Why are they 2-3 then? Well, two of their losses came by a combined 5 points. They’ve allowed 3 return touchdowns in...
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4 days ago  |  Discuss

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

Carolina Panthers (3-2-1) at Green Bay Packers (4-2) The Packers have been dominant at home over the past few seasons. Aaron Rodgers is 22-9-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 28-4 straight up, with an absurd +448 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 14.00 points per game. I like their chances of covering here at home against a Carolina team that has to be...
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4 days ago  |  Discuss

Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

Atlanta Falcons (2-4) at Baltimore Ravens (4-2) The Falcons got off to a good start, which included a 56-14 home victory over division rival Tampa Bay week 3, which pushed them to 2-1. However, they’ve lost 3 straight now and haven’t really been playing that well. They are moving the chains at a 74.11% rate, as opposed to 75.76% for their opponents, a differential of -1.65% that...
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5 days ago  |  Discuss

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

New York Giants (3-3) at Dallas Cowboys (5-1) The Giants got blown out in Philadelphia last week, but that actually bodes well for their chances of covering the spread this week, as the Giants are road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 106-69 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 90-47 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically...
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5 days ago  |  Discuss

New York Jets at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

New York Jets (1-5) at New England Patriots (4-2) The Jets are as bad as I expected them to be this season and their record is as bad as they’ve been over the past two seasons. The Jets 8-8 record in 2013 was a farce as the Jets had a 5-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less and a point differential of -97. They moved the chains at a mere 65.59% rate, as opposed to 69...
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5 days ago  |  Discuss

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

Cincinnati Bengals (3-1-1) at Indianapolis Colts (4-2) The Bengals played the Panthers to a tie last week and now they have to go on the road to Indianapolis. That puts them at a disadvantage rest wise, for obvious reasons. Ties are rare so there isn’t a big sample size, but teams are 5-9 ATS off of a tie since 1989, including 0-5 ATS on the road, all of which makes sense. Making...
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5 days ago  |  Discuss

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) at San Diego Chargers (4-1) The Chargers are in about as bad as a spot as a team can be this week. They have a huge game 4 days after this in Denver, arguably the biggest game of their season. This game here is important because it’s a divisional game obviously, but the Chargers are at home and significantly favored. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have a random...
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5 days ago  |  Discuss

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-2) This is one of the games that I’m most indecivise on this week. Both of these teams are in good spots with easy games up next. The Steelers have a non-divisional home game against an average at best Houston team next week, while the Browns head to Jacksonville for a non-divisional game with the worst team in the NFL. Teams are...
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9 days ago  |  Discuss

Denver Broncos at New York Jets: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

Denver Broncos (3-1) at New York Jets (1-4) The Jets got destroyed last week in San Diego, losing 31-0 and that’s caused a significant line movement. A week ago, this line was at 6 and now it’s at 9.5 and possibly climbing even more before game time. Ordinarily, I like to fade that kind of line movement, especially with the public all over the favorite Denver here, but I’m...
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9 days ago  |  Discuss

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

San Francisco 49ers (3-2) at St. Louis Rams (1-3) The 49ers have generally beaten up on bad teams in the Jim Harbaugh era, dating back to 2011, going 24-15 ATS as favorites of 3+ in that time period. The Rams definitely qualify as a bad team, as they are 1-3 and rank 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential at -2.18%. They move the chains at a 74.81% rate, as opposed to 76...
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9 days ago  |  Discuss

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

San Diego Chargers (4-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-4) The Chargers have broken out as one of the top teams in the NFL and are a legitimate contender. Their offense has continued to be as good as it was last season. Last season, they moved the chains at a 78.26% rate, 2nd in the NFL. This season, they’re actually doing worse than that, moving the chains at a 75.82% rate, ranking 13th...
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9 days ago  |  Discuss

Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

Baltimore Ravens (3-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-4) The Ravens have been very good at home over the past few seasons, since 2008 when Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh came to town. However, they haven’t been as good on the road.  Since 2008, the Ravens are 43-10 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.30 points per game. On the other hand, they are 31-30 on the road, outscoring...
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9 days ago  |  Discuss

Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

Green Bay Packers (3-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-2) The Packers had a dominant win on Thursday Night Football last week, winning 42-10. However, that hurts them this week. The Packers will have had 10 days of basking in their own glory after last week’s blowout victory over the Buccaneers. Road favorites are 9-19 ATS after a Thursday Night win of 10 or more since 1989. Usually wins...
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9 days ago  |  Discuss

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

Detroit Lions (3-2) at Minnesota Vikings (2-3) The Vikings got destroyed on Thursday Night Football last week, losing 42-10 in Green Bay to the Packers. However, there are arguments for why they’ll bounce back. The most obvious one is that quarterback Teddy Bridgewater will be back from injury and he’ll be a significant improvement over Christian Ponder, the injury fill-in last...
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9 days ago  |  Discuss

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5) at Tennessee Titans (1-4) This is a game where I don’t want to pick either side. On one hand, the Titans might not deserve to be favored by 6 points against anyone, especially with Charlie Whitehurst likely under center again. They are 1-4. They rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 70.39% rate, as opposed to 76.80% for...
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10 days ago  |  Discuss

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

New England Patriots (3-2) at Buffalo Bills (3-2) This is one game I’m completely torn on. On one hand, the Bills have been pretty successful at home in Buffalo over the past couple of seasons, going 8-2 ATS there in their last 10 games, including 6-1 ATS as home underdogs during that time frame. Last season, they beat Carolina, Baltimore, Miami, and blew out the Jets. They took...
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11 days ago  |  Discuss
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