LATEST STORIES FROM THE FOOTBALL FAN SPOT

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

Buffalo Bills (4-3) at New York Jets (1-6) This line shifted from even last week to now the Jets being favored by a field goal. The primary reason for that has to be the Percy Harvin trade, as people don’t seem to realize that Harvin wasn’t doing much in Seattle this season and that he probably doesn’t know the entire Jets playbook yet or have chemistry developed with quarterback...
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5 hours ago  |  Discuss

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

Indianapolis Colts (5-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3) The Colts are arguably the best team in the NFL right now, or at least they’ve played like it through 7 games. With the exception of a 3 point home loss as 3 point home favorites to the Eagles, the Colts have covered every game this season. Both of their losses came against teams that currently have one loss and they came by...
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5 hours ago  |  Discuss

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

Houston Texans (3-3) at Tennessee Titans (2-5) The Texans are road favorites here, but they could easily be home underdogs next week when they host the Eagles. Road favorites are 76-118 ATS since 1989 before being home underdogs, including 18-27 ATS as divisional road favorites before being non-divisional home underdogs, as that upcoming game tends to be a major distraction. Even...
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6 hours ago  |  Discuss

St. Louis Rams at Kansas City Chiefs: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

St. Louis Rams (2-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-3) The Chiefs have proven to be the real deal this year. A year after relying on weak competition, an unsustainable turnover margin, and no injuries to go 11-5, the Chiefs have now knocked off New England and San Diego and come within a touchdown of both Denver and San Francisco on the road, 4 teams that could easily be playoff teams...
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6 hours ago  |  Discuss

Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

Miami Dolphins (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6) I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, the Jaguars are in a bad spot, having to go to Cincinnati next week where they will almost certainly be double digit underdogs (the early line is 11). Teams are 40-81 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally...
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7 hours ago  |  Discuss

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

Philadelphia Eagles (5-1) at Arizona Cardinals (5-1) I’m not happy that these two teams are playing each other because I think they’re two of the most overrated teams in football. Neither is as good as their record and yet one will advance to 6-1, though I guess that’ll make for easier betting situations in the future. The Eagles are 5-1 on the strength of a +6 margin in return...
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8 hours ago  |  Discuss

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

Washington Redskins (2-5) at Dallas Cowboys (6-1) Last week I picked against the Cowboys when they planned the Giants here at home in Dallas. That didn’t work out as the Cowboys won 31-21 as 6.5 point favorites, but it could have easily been a different result (against the spread). The Giants led 14-7 earlier and the game would have been a lot closer if not for two Larry Donnell...
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8 hours ago  |  Discuss

Chicago Bears at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

Chicago Bears (3-4) at New England Patriots (5-2) The Bears were embarrassed last week at home by the Dolphins, but that’s because the Dolphins were in a fantastic spot, with an incredibly easy game against the Jaguars up next, while the Bears were caught looking forward to this one. I like the Bears’ chances of bouncing back this week as they’ll be completely focused against...
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1 day ago  |  Discuss

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

Baltimore Ravens (5-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-2-1) The Bengals were embarrassed on the road in Indianapolis last week, getting blown out by the final score of 27-0. Now they’re favored to beat the 5-2 Ravens. You should put all your money on Baltimore as underdogs right? Well, that’s ignoring the Bengals’ home dominance and the Ravens’ recent road struggles. Since the start...
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1 day ago  |  Discuss

Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

Green Bay Packers (5-2) at New Orleans Saints (2-4) The Saints have been incredible at home over the past few years. They are 32-11 ATS at home since 2008 in the games which Drew Brees and Sean Payton were involved.  On top of that, they are 17-1-1 ATS at home over their last 19 home games with Drew Brees and Sean Payton. They’ve won all 18 of those games by an average of about...
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1 day ago  |  Discuss

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

San Diego Chargers (5-2) at Denver Broncos (5-1) The Broncos have generally been very good at home in the Peyton Manning era, going 14-7 ATS as home favorites of 3 or more. That hasn’t been the case against these Chargers, who have covered in all 3 instances in Denver as 3+ point underdogs since 2012. However, it’s very possible that could be an anomaly as it’s just 3 data...
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2 days ago  |  Discuss

Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons in London: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

Detroit Lions (5-2) at Atlanta Falcons (2-5) in London This is technically a home game for the Falcons, but it’s a neutral site game in London. Given that, we’re getting significant line value with the Lions as either the Lions are being overrated or the Falcons are being underrated. The Lions rank 7th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 70...
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3 days ago  |  Discuss

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

Minnesota Vikings (2-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-5) Last week, the Vikings lost in Buffalo on a last second touchdown. However, it was still only a one point loss. I like the Vikings’ chances of actually getting the win here this week a good amount for several reasons. One, they’re playing an inferior opponent as compared to last week. Buffalo isn’t a good football team,...
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3 days ago  |  Discuss

2014 Week 7 NFL Pick Results

Against the Spread: 9-6 Straight Up: 12-3 Pick of the Week: 1-0 High Confidence: 1-1 Medium Confidence: 5-0 Low Confidence: 1-2 No Confidence: 1-3 Upset Picks: 1-0 Against the Spread: 66-39-1 Straight Up: 71-34-1 Pick of the Week: 4-3 High Confidence: 4-6 Medium Confidence: 26-7 Low Confidence: 15-11-1 No Confidence: 17-12 Upset Picks: 9-7 Survivor Picks: 5-2 (PHI, GB, NO, SD, DET, NO, BAL)
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3 days ago  |  Discuss

Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

Minnesota Vikings (2-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-3) The Bills have generally been very good at home over the past 2 seasons, going 7-3 ATS in Buffalo, but they’re only 1-1 ATS as favorites. I think this line is way too high at 5.5. The Bills are 3-3, but they’re not as good as their record, moving the chains at a 64.16% rate, as opposed to 69.54% for their opponents, a differential...
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7 days ago  |  Discuss

Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

Seattle Seahawks (3-2) at St. Louis Rams (1-4) The Seahawks had a very disappointing loss at home to the Cowboys last week, a 30-23 game that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score. That was just the Seahawks 2nd home loss since they drafted Russell Wilson in 2012. However, they generally bounce back off a loss, as good teams tend to. They are 7-2 ATS off a loss in the Russell...
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7 days ago  |  Discuss

San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

San Francisco 49ers (4-2) at Denver Broncos (4-1) I’m completely torn on this one as there’s conflicting stuff on both sides. On one hand, the Broncos have a big divisional game against the Chargers up next in just 4 days on Thursday Night Football. Teams are 33-55 ATS since 2008 as favorites before Thursday Night games, including 17-31 ATS as favorites before a divisional Thursday...
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7 days ago  |  Discuss

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

Houston Texans (3-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3) People are pretty down on the Steelers here after their loss to the Browns as the public is all over the Texans. I love fading the public, especially when the public is on the underdog. If the Texans are really as likely to win as the public thinks, why is this line 3.5? The odds makers generally have a better sense of how good teams...
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7 days ago  |  Discuss

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

Cleveland Browns (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6) There are reasons to take the Jaguars this week. Teams that are 0-5 or worse are 43-20 ATS since 1989 as underdogs off of a loss of 1-8 points. The Jaguars almost got their first win of the season last week in a two point loss in Tennessee and they should be able to carry that into this week and give themselves a shot at their...
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7 days ago  |  Discuss

Arizona Cardinals at Oakland Raiders: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

Arizona Cardinals (4-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-5) The Cardinals are 4-1 and have one of the best records in football, but they’re a very flawed, fraudulent 4-1. The Cardinals are just +10 in point differential despite their record and they’ve needed to win the turnover battle by 8 just to do that. Winning the turnover battle consistently is very hard to do so that’s going to...
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7 days ago  |  Discuss

Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

Miami Dolphins (2-3) at Chicago Bears (3-3) All the trends say the Dolphins are the right side here. While the Bears have to go to New England next week, one of the toughest places in the NFL to win, the Dolphins go to Jacksonville, arguably the easiest place in the NFL to win. Teams usually cover before being significant road favorites, as there are no distractions on the horizon...
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7 days ago  |  Discuss

Seattle Seahawks trade WR Percy Harvin to the New York Jets

Trade for Seahawks: A lot of people are saying this move was a mistake for the Seahawks because trading him now means they’re going to end up paying him 18.3 million for 27 catches and 238 snaps played (including post-season). That’s about 678K per catch and about 64.6K per snap played. The Seahawks gave up a first and third round pick for Harvin about 19 months ago, in addition...
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7 days ago  |  Discuss

Tennessee Titans at Washington Redskins: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

Tennessee Titans (2-4) at Washington Redskins (1-5) At first glance, it looks like we’re getting line value with the Redskins. Despite the Redskins’ 1-5 record, they are 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 73.50% rate, as opposed to 71.74% for their opponents. Meanwhile, the Titans are 29th at -7.00%, moving the chains at a 69.71% rate, as...
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7 days ago  |  Discuss

New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

New Orleans Saints (2-3) at Detroit Lions (4-2) I still believe in the Saints. They’re 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a rate 81.82%, while their opponents are moving them at a 78.71%, a differential of 3.11% for the Saints. Why are they 2-3 then? Well, two of their losses came by a combined 5 points. They’ve allowed 3 return touchdowns in...
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8 days ago  |  Discuss

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

Carolina Panthers (3-2-1) at Green Bay Packers (4-2) The Packers have been dominant at home over the past few seasons. Aaron Rodgers is 22-9-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 28-4 straight up, with an absurd +448 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 14.00 points per game. I like their chances of covering here at home against a Carolina team that has to be...
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8 days ago  |  Discuss
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