LATEST STORIES FROM THE FOOTBALL FAN SPOT

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers: 2015 NFC Championship Pick

Arizona Cardinals (13-3) at Carolina Panthers (15-1) I’ve been saying for pretty much all season that Arizona is better than Carolina, despite Carolina’s better record and their status as the #1 seed in the NFC really from start to finish (they’ve been tied for the best record in the NFC or had the best record in the NFC all season). Arizona obviously has lost more games than...
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13 days ago  |  Discuss

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos: 2015 AFC Championship Pick

New England Patriots (13-4) at Denver Broncos (13-4) The Patriots lost in Denver earlier this year, but the Patriots were without leading wide receivers Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola and also lost top receiving threat Rob Gronkowski and talented linebacker Dont’a Hightower with injuries in that game. Even still, the Patriots were leading 21-7 in the 4th quarter and likely would...
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14 days ago  |  Discuss

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers: 2015 NFC Divisional Pick

Seattle Seahawks (11-6) at Carolina Panthers (15-1) This is a matchup of two absolute powerhouses, as Carolina and Seattle rank 2nd and 3rd respectively in rate of moving the chains differential. Seattle gets running back Marshawn Lynch back from a 7 game absence, while Carolina gets running back Jonathan Stewart back from a 3 game absence, safety Kurt Coleman back from a 1 game...
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21 days ago  |  Discuss

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots: 2015 AFC Divisional Pick

Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) at New England Patriots (12-4) This one’s tough. The Patriots should be able to cover this 5 point spread at home against the Chiefs. The Chiefs have famously won 11 straight games since a 1-5 start, but who did they beat over that time period? Buffalo? Denver when Manning had a bad foot? Houston? Meanwhile, during their 1-5 start, they lost to the likes...
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21 days ago  |  Discuss

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 NFC Divisional Pick

Green Bay Packers (11-6) at Arizona Cardinals (13-3) The Cardinals clobbered the Packers 38-8 at home just 3 weeks ago back in week 16, so people don’t seem to be giving the Packers much of a chance. However, as the Vikings showed last week, even though a team blew you out recently, you still have a good chance to beat them in the playoffs. Teams are 30-15 ATS since 2001 in the...
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21 days ago  |  Discuss

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos: 2015 AFC Divisional Pick

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-6) at Denver Broncos (12-4) Pittsburgh entered the post-season as a trendy sleeper pick to go all the way, thanks to a high flying offense led by arguably the best quarterback/pass catcher duo in the NFL in Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown. They finished 9th in rate of moving the chains differential and moved the chains at a 75.00% rate in the 12 games...
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21 days ago  |  Discuss

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins: 2015 NFC Wild Card Pick

Green Bay Packers (10-6) at Washington Redskins (9-7) The Redskins come out of the NFC East, arguably the weakest division in football, but they’ve turned into a pretty good team. They rank 14th in rate of moving the chains differential, worst among playoff teams, but they’re hot right now and have been since getting both tight end Jordan Reed and wide receiver DeSean Jackson...
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28 days ago  |  Discuss

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings: 2015 NFC Wild Card Pick

Seattle Seahawks (10-6) at Minnesota Vikings (11-5) The Seahawks smoked the Vikings in Minnesota back in week 13, winning 38-7. However, the trio of linebacker Anthony Barr, safety Harrison Smith, and defensive tackle Linval Joseph, arguably the Vikings’ 3 best defensive players, played a combined 19 snaps in that one, thanks to injury. Joseph was out completely, while Barr and...
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28 days ago  |  Discuss

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 AFC Wild Card Pick

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) This is the game that I have the least strong opinion on. The Bengals rank 5th in rate of moving the chains differential on the season, while the Steelers rank 9th, but the Steelers have been far better offensively in the 12 games where Ben Roethlisberger has led them in pass attempts, as opposed to their other 4 games when...
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28 days ago  |  Discuss

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans: 2015 AFC Wild Card Pick

Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) at Houston Texans (9-7) The Chiefs are favored by 3.5 points here in Houston. It’s not hard to understand why that’s the case. The Texans are seen as a team that’s only in the playoffs by default, after winning the weak NFC South; they’ve also already lost to the Chiefs at home this season, 27-20 back in week 1.The Chiefs, meanwhile, are seen as...
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28 days ago  |  Discuss

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick

Tennessee Titans (3-13) at Indianapolis Colts (7-8) This is another one where I wouldn’t touch either side with money. Both teams have serious quarterback problems. The Colts are on to their 4th quarterback of the year, Josh Freeman. Matt Hasselbeck was playing in the absence of starting quarterback Andrew Luck, but he got hurt last week and Charlie Whitehurst finished out. However...
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January 03, 2016  |  Discuss

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick

Oakland Raiders (7-8) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-5) This is another one I don’t have a good feel for. The Chiefs are favored by a touchdown, which I think is a little much, considering the Chiefs rank 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Raiders rank 15th. The Chiefs could also be missing outside linebackers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali, huge parts of their...
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January 02, 2016  |  Discuss

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6) at Cleveland Browns (3-12) The Steelers lost last week as huge road favorites in Baltimore, but they get a 2nd chance this week and I like their chances of bouncing back this week as 11 point favorites in Cleveland. The Browns rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Steelers rank 9th. That doesn’t suggest an 11 point line is appropriate...
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January 02, 2016  |  Discuss

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-9) at Carolina Panthers (14-1) The Panthers’ undefeated season attempt ended with last week’s road loss in Atlanta, but that doesn’t mean that the Panthers are going take it easy in their final regular season game this week. In fact, it likely means the opposite because now their week 17 game is meaningful, as they need a win to hold onto the #1 seed...
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January 02, 2016  |  Discuss

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick

Detroit Lions (6-9) at Chicago Bears (6-9) I don’t have too strong of a feel for this one, but this line seems too low at a pick em. That suggests that the Lions are 3 points better than the home team Bears, which I disagree with. The Bears rank 18th in rate of moving the chains differential and have been even better when Jay Cutler has been healthy, moving the chains at a 72.18...
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January 02, 2016  |  Discuss

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick

Philadelphia Eagles (7-8) at New York Giants (6-9) I want to preface this write up by saying I wouldn’t put money on either side. It’s going to be tough to know the emotional state of both of these teams. The Eagles got eliminated last Saturday with a home loss to the Redskins and then their head coach Chip Kelly was fired Tuesday. The Giants, meanwhile, were also eliminated...
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January 02, 2016  |  Discuss

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick

Seattle Seahawks (9-6) at Arizona Cardinals (13-2) I’ve thought for a while that the Cardinals were the most underrated team in the NFL. I’ve taken them in every week since week 2. Despite the fact that the Panthers didn’t lose their first game of the season until last week, I think the Cardinals have been the best team in the league for most of the year. The Cardinals rank...
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January 02, 2016  |  Discuss

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick

New England Patriots (12-3) at Miami Dolphins (5-10) The Patriots are traditionally very good off of a loss, going 34-17 ATS all-time off a loss with Tom Brady as the starting quarterback. However, I’m going to go against them this week for three reasons. For one, teams are 81-105 ATS since 1989 off of a road loss in overtime, 60-85 ATS if we exclude road underdogs in their 2nd of...
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January 02, 2016  |  Discuss

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick

Baltimore Ravens (5-10) at Cincinnati Bengals (11-4) I’m completely torn on this one. On one hand, the Ravens are in a good spot because divisional road underdogs are 57-31 ATS in a same season regular season rematch against a team they previously lost to as divisional home favorites, since 2002. Revenge is far from uncommon in divisional matchups similar to this one and the Ravens...
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January 02, 2016  |  Discuss

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick

Washington Redskins (8-7) at Dallas Cowboys (4-11) Ordinarily, I would be all over the Redskins as 3.5 point underdogs here in Dallas, for three reasons. The first is that the Cowboys tend to struggle as hosts, particularly as home favorites, going 8-25 ATS as home favorites since 2010. The second is this is a big revenge spot for the Redskins, who were upset at home by the Cowboys...
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January 02, 2016  |  Discuss

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick

San Diego Chargers (4-11) at Denver Broncos (11-4) The Chargers are just 4-11, one of the worst records in the NFL, but rank 11th in rate of moving the chains differential. How can that be? Well, their record is largely the result of a 3-7 record in games decided by a touchdown (3-8 in games decided by 8 points or fewer), a -8 turnover margin, a -5 return touchdown margin, a -6.5...
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January 02, 2016  |  Discuss

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick

St. Louis Rams (7-8) at San Francisco 49ers (4-11) The Rams have gone from being favored by 2.5 points on the early line last week to being favored by 3.5 points this week. That might not seem like a huge difference, but about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, so it definitely is. It’s pretty obvious why the change occurred, as the Rams pulled off an upset victory...
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January 02, 2016  |  Discuss

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick

New York Jets (10-5) at Buffalo Bills (7-8) I really wish we were still getting points with the Jets, like we were last week, when they were underdogs of 1.5 in Buffalo on the early line. The line hasn’t moved to the opposite 3 yet, but the Jets are now favored by 2.5, which takes a pretty powerful trend out of play. Divisional road underdogs are 57-31 ATS in a same season regular...
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January 02, 2016  |  Discuss

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick

Minnesota Vikings (10-5) at Green Bay Packers (10-5) The Packers were favored by 5.5 over the Vikings last week on the early line, but now are favored by just 3, a significant line movement considering both 3 and 4 are key numbers. While about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, close to 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, so only having to lay a field goal...
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January 01, 2016  |  Discuss

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick

New Orleans Saints (6-9) at Atlanta Falcons (8-7) The Falcons delivered the Carolina Panthers their first loss of the season last week, winning 20-13 at home as 7 point underdogs. It was certainly a legitimate win, as they won the rate of moving the chains differential battle 82.14% to 73.08%, but anyone betting them as 5.5 point home favorites here at home over the Saints is probably...
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January 01, 2016  |  Discuss
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