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New York Giants 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

Positions of Need Outside Linebacker With Jacquian Williams and Mark Herzlich heading into free agency, the only linebackers the Giants have for 2015 are Jameel McClain, Jon Beason, and Devon Kennard. McClain and Beason are overpaid and could both be cap casualties. Beason can never stay healthy anyway. Kennard flashed in limited action as a 5th round rookie and could be ready for...
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3 hours ago  |  Discuss

Atlanta Falcons 2015 NFL Off-Season Report

Positions of Need Defensive End Kroy Biermann, Malliciah Goodman, and Osi Umenyiora were their primary edge rushers last season and only Umenyiora graded out above average on Pro Football Focus and he did so on just 347 snaps. Now he’s a free agent going into his age 34 season. Biermann is a free agent as well and Goodman, the only one under contract, was their worst last season...
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5 days ago  |  Discuss

Chicago Bears 2015 NFL Off-Season Report

Positions of Need Middle Linebacker Linebacker was a big problem for the Bears last season, as no one played more than 696 snaps and only one player (Jon Bostic) played more than 461 snaps. Bostic was decent in his 2nd year in the league in 2014, after struggling in 2013 as a 2nd round rookie (51st out of 55 eligible middle linebackers). He’ll start at one of the two middle linebacker...
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5 days ago  |  Discuss

Washington Redskins 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

Positions of Need Cornerback You know things are bad at cornerback when you desperately miss DeAngelo Hall, who missed 13 games. Hall isn’t great, but those 3 games he played were the only 3 games the Redskins had anyone resembling an NFL starting cornerback out there. David Amerson has been a massive disappointment a 2013 2nd round pick, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 84th...
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7 days ago  |  Discuss

Oakland Raiders 2015 NFL Off-Season Report

Needs Defensive Tackle The Raiders’ current trio of Antonio Smith, Justin Ellis, and Pat Sims at defensive tackle is underwhelming. On top of that, Smith is going into an age 34 contract year, while Sims is a free agent this off-season. Ellis has the best long-term potential, as he was a 4th round rookie in 2014 and has 3 three years on his deal, but he still graded out slightly...
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11 days ago  |  Discuss

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots: 2014 AFC Championship Pick

Indianapolis Colts (13-5) at New England Patriots (13-4) After the Ravens beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh, ensuring that they would go to New England in the 2nd round for yet another Patriots/Ravens playoff matchup, I started discussing on Twitter who the Patriots would choose to play in the 2nd round if they had the choice, the lower seed Ravens or the higher seed Colts. It was...
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13 days ago  |  Discuss

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks: 2014 NFC Championship Pick

Green Bay Packers (13-4) at Seattle Seahawks (13-4) The Packers beat the Cowboys last week, beating a team that was 8-0 on the road previously and improving to 9-0 at home themselves. However, because they are 9-0 at home, that also means they are just 4-4 on the road this season. Away from Lambeau, they haven’t been the same team. All 4 of their losses came by more than a touchdown...
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13 days ago  |  Discuss

Jacksonville Jaguars 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

Needs Defensive End The Chris Clemons signing didn’t really work out for the Jaguars. Clemons was dominant in Seattle when Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley was the defensive coordinator, but he’s over the hill. He was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked 4-3 defensive end last season and isn’t going to get any better, going into his age 34 season in 2015. With all of his guaranteed...
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16 days ago  |  Discuss

Tennessee Titans 2015 NFL Off-Season Report

Needs Quarterback Arguably the most intriguing spot in the first round of the draft is #2 where the Titans are picking. Ken Whisenhunt drafted Zach Mettenberger in the 6th round last year and he showed some promise as a rookie, completing 59.8% of his passes for an average of 7.89 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. Whisenhunt has praise for Mettenberger in the end of season...
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19 days ago  |  Discuss

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers: 2014 Divisional Round NFL Pick

Dallas Cowboys (13-4) at Green Bay Packers (12-4) This is the first time in NFL history that an 8-0 home team has met an 8-0 road team in the playoffs and both teams are in the location where they’ve had the most success this season, the Packers in Lambeau and the Cowboys, well, anywhere other than AT&T Stadium. This season, the Cowboys were 7-1 ATS on the road, while the Packers...
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21 days ago  |  Discuss

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos: 2014 Divisional Round NFL Pick

Indianapolis Colts (12-5) at Denver Broncos (12-4) Last week was an overall successful weekend. I hit 3 out of 4 plays, including both of my big plays (Baltimore +3 and Carolina -6). The one I missed was the Indianapolis/Cincinnati game, as I made a low confidence pick on Cincinnati. I understood the AJ Green absence would be huge and that Indianapolis was a good home team and overall...
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22 days ago  |  Discuss

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots: 2014 Divisional Round NFL Pick

Baltimore Ravens (11-6) at New England Patriots (12-4) I was ready to make a big play on the Patriots this week. They haven’t looked good in a while. With most teams, that’s a concern, but that’s never been a concern with the Patriots in the Brady/Belichick era. In fact, short periods of struggles tend to wake up this team. The Patriots are 19-12 ATS with a healthy Tom Brady...
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23 days ago  |  Discuss

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks: 2014 Divisional Round NFL Pick

Carolina Panthers (8-8-1) at Seattle Seahawks (12-4) I had the Panthers as the 2nd hottest team coming into the playoffs. They won their final 4 straight games just to make the playoffs and, in their final 5 games, they moved the chains at a 77.38% rate, as opposed to 61.98% for their opponents, a differential of 15.40%, since their week 12 bye. Over that time period, their only...
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23 days ago  |  Discuss

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2015 NFL Off-Season Report

Needs Quarterback Josh McCown struggled mightily in 11 starts for the Buccaneers this season, completing 56.3% of his passes for an average of 6.75 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, winning just once. He’s obviously not a long-term solution, going into his age 36 season and might not even be back at his scheduled 5.25 million dollar salary, which is non-guaranteed. Mike...
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25 days ago  |  Discuss

2015 NFL Mock Draft

Updated 1/4/15 1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- QB Marcus Mariota (Oregon) This seems to be the consensus right now and I don’t see it changing anytime soon. We haven’t had a quarterback go #1 since 2012, but we’ve still had a quarterback go #1 in 12 of the last 17 drafts and there hasn’t been a quarterback prospect like Mariota in either of the last 2 draft classes. There was talk...
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27 days ago  |  Discuss

2014 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Pick: Khalil Mack

Odell Beckham Jr. had a season for the ages on the offensive side of the football this year and looks like an easy choice for Offensive Rookie of the Year, but two defensive rookies had rookie years that were equally as dominant. Oakland’s Khalil Mack and St. Louis’ Aaron Donald each ranked #1 at their respective positions, 4-3 outside linebacker and defensive tackle, on Pro...
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28 days ago  |  Discuss

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Wild Card Round NFL Pick

Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) at Indianapolis Colts (11-5) In addition to adjusting playoff teams’ rate of moving the chains differentials for strength of schedule, another thing I did differently this week was breaking out schedule adjusted differential into a team’s last 4 games and into a team’s last 8 weeks instead of just the whole season. The motivation for this is because...
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28 days ago  |  Discuss

2014 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Pick: JJ Watt

In my Most Valuable Player article, I laid out why JJ Watt should not win MVP over Aaron Rodgers, as the Packers would undoubtedly be a worse team if they switched Rodgers for Watt and the Texans would undoubtedly be better if they switched Watt for Rodgers.  However, Watt not winning Defensive Player of the Year would be an equally big travesty as Watt winning MVP. It’s hard...
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28 days ago  |  Discuss

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Wild Card Round NFL Pick

Baltimore Ravens (10-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) I’m glad the Ravens made the playoffs. If San Diego had been able to beat the Chiefs, it would have eliminated the Ravens, regardless of what the Ravens did in their game against the Browns, and they would have missed the playoffs despite finishing the season ranked 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential at 5.62%. Even...
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28 days ago  |  Discuss

2014 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Pick: Odell Beckham Jr.

From 2005-2013, 31 receivers went in the 1st round. They averaged 41 catches for 558 yards and 3 touchdowns per season as rookie. The most productive 1st round rookie wide receiver over that stretch was AJ Green, who caught 65 passes for 1057 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2011, after going 4th overall in that year’s draft. Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson were top-3 picks who went...
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28 days ago  |  Discuss

2014 NFL Most Valuable Player Award Pick: Aaron Rodgers

The consensus 3 candidates for MVP seem to be Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, and JJ Watt. I’ll explain why I feel Rodgers has the edge on both of them. I’ll start with the two quarterbacks, Rodgers and Romo. Comparing the two, Romo had generally more efficient numbers. He completed 69.9% of his passes, as opposed to 65.6% for Rodgers, and averaged 8.52 yards per attempt, as opposed...
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28 days ago  |  Discuss

2014 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Pick: Rob Gronkowski

Comeback Player of the Year is the award that I feel has the vaguest definition because it depends on your definition of comeback. Guys like Aaron Rodgers, Julio Jones, Randall Cobb, Harrison Smith, and Von Miller missed significant time last season (7 games, 11 games, 10 games, 8 games, and 7 games respectively) and were among the best at their respective positions this season,...
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29 days ago  |  Discuss

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Wild Card Round NFL Pick

Detroit Lions (11-5) at Dallas Cowboys (12-4) The Cowboys have been pretty inconsistent this season. They come into the playoffs red hot, ranking 3rd among playoff teams (only behind Seattle and Carolina) in rate of moving the chains differential adjusted for schedule. This makes sense as they won their final 4 to qualify for the playoffs, including convincing victories against a...
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29 days ago  |  Discuss

2014 Week 17 NFL Pick Results

Week 17 Straight Up: 11-5 Against the Spread: 11-5 Pick of the Week: 1-0 High Confidence: 0-1 Medium Confidence: 5-2 Low Confidence: 2-1 No Confidence: 3-1 Upset Picks: 1-1 2014 Straight Up: 162-93-1 (.635) Against the Spread: 143-109-4 (.567) Pick of the Week: 9-7-1 High Confidence: 8-11 Medium Confidence: 54-30 Low Confidence: 34-29-2 No Confidence: 38-32-1 Upset Picks: 18-25 Pre...
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December 31, 2014  |  Discuss

2014 NFL All-Pro Picks

QB Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay) RB LeVeon Bell (Pittsburgh) WR Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh), Jordy Nelson (Green Bay), Odell Beckham (NY Giants) TE Rob Gronkowski (New England) OT Andrew Whitworth (Cincinnati), Jason Peters (Philadelphia) G Marshal Yanda (Baltimore), Josh Sitton (Green Bay) C Nick Mangold (NY Jets) IDL JJ Watt (Houston), Sheldon Richardson (NY Jets) ER Von Miller (Denver...
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December 31, 2014  |  Discuss
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