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San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

San Diego Chargers (1-1) at Buffalo Bills (2-0) The Bills are 2-0 and they’ve been very good at home over the past two seasons, going 7-1 ATS in the city of Buffalo since the start of the 2013 season and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games. The Chargers, meanwhile, are coming off of a huge win over the Seahawks (teams are 39-56 ATS as road underdogs after a win as 6+ point home...
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6 hours ago  |  Discuss

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

Green Bay Packers (1-1) at Detroit Lions (1-1) The Lions looked way better week 1 in their win over the Giants than they did last week in a loss to the Panthers. Week 1, they moved the chains at an 82.76% rate, as opposed to 69.23% for the Giants and in week 2 they moved the chains 66.67% rate, as opposed to 70.97% for the Panthers. What was the difference? Well for one, caliber...
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13 hours ago  |  Discuss

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

Indianapolis Colts (0-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) The Jaguars are terrible. They lost last week by the score of 41-10 in Washington even after the Redskins lost RG3 early in the game to injury. They allowed 41 points to a backup quarterback and on the other side of the fall, they were sacked more often (10) than they picked up the first down (8) against what has generally been...
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23 hours ago  |  Discuss

Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

Tennessee Titans (1-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-0) The Bengals beat the Falcons 24-10 last week in Cincinnati, making it 10 straight regular season home games that they’ve not only won but covered, winning by an average of 16.1 points per game. They moved the chains at a 75.00% rate, as opposed to 64.51% for their opponents, the 4th best differential of the week. They should be...
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1 day ago  |  Discuss

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

Washington Redskins (1-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) The Redskins looked very good in Kirk Cousins 2014 debut last week, as Robert Griffin went down with a significant ankle injury a few plays into what ended up being one of the most dominant performances by a team I’ve seen in a while. The Redskins moved the chains at an 84.09% rate, as opposed to 45.00% for the Jaguars. However...
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1 day ago  |  Discuss

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-1) The Falcons looked pretty good week 1 against the Saints, but they fell flat on their face in Cincinnati last week. However, I expect them to bounce back here for three reasons. One, Jake Matthews is back from injury and will take over again on the blindside. Two, the Falcons are a much better team at home. Matt Ryan is 29-19 ATS...
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1 day ago  |  Discuss

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

Minnesota Vikings (1-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-2) The Saints are 0-2, but I’m not too worried about them. If one of their offensive players had been able to tackle Tashaun Gipson on his eventual pick 6, there’s a very good chance they’d be 1-1 right now and heading home to face the Vikings as at least 12 point favorites. They weren’t able to do that and they lost as a result...
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3 days ago  |  Discuss

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) at Denver Broncos (1-0) The Chiefs had the fewest adjusted games lost last season. Now they’ve already lost two of their best players (Derrick Johnson and Mike DeVito) for the season with torn Achilles. On offense, Dwayne Bowe is back from suspension, but Donald Stephenson remains suspended and now Jeff Allen is out for the season on an offensive line that...
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6 days ago  |  Discuss

Seattle Seahawks at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

Seattle Seahawks (1-0) at San Diego Chargers (1-0) I really hate to go against the Seahawks. They were obviously Super Bowl champs last year and deserving ones at that and now they return with their same young core. They looked every bit as good as they always had last week, beating the Packers 36-16 in a game that could have been even more of a blowout. They moved the chains at...
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6 days ago  |  Discuss

St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

St. Louis Rams (0-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1) The Buccaneers are in a bad spot here with a Thursday Night game against the Falcons on deck. Teams are 14-30 ATS since 2008 as favorites before a divisional Thursday Night game. I also think we’re getting some line value with the Rams. The Buccaneers aren’t really that good. They didn’t look good at all last week, losing at...
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6 days ago  |  Discuss

Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1) The Eagles were down 17-0 early against the Jaguars last week at home, before coming back and winning 34-17. Their offense looked solid again, as it did last season with Nick Foles, but their defense continued to struggle. This line suggests these two teams are even, but I don’t think that’s the case right now as the Eagles’...
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6 days ago  |  Discuss

New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

New Orleans Saints (0-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-1) Ordinarily, I don’t like to pick the Saints on the road. I was 15-2-1 ATS picking Saints games this year and it would be 15-1-2 if I had gotten -3 in the 49ers game and not -3.5, in an eventual New Orleans win by 3. I did that by blindly picking them at home and almost blindly picking against them on the road, only picking them...
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6 days ago  |  Discuss

Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

Arizona Cardinals (1-0) at New York Giants (0-1) The Cardinals were one of my overrated teams coming into the season and I still think that’s true, even after their 1 point comeback victory at home over the Chargers on Monday Night Football week 1. They get Tyrann Mathieu back from injury this week and Andre Ellington was able to play through his foot problem last week and have...
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6 days ago  |  Discuss

Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 1

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move...
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6 days ago  |  Discuss

Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

Houston Texans (1-0) at Oakland Raiders (0-1) This is a tough one and one I don’t really have a strong opinion on. On one hand, I don’t know if I’m ready to bet on the Texans as field goal favorites. On the other hand, I do think the Texans are going to bounce back in a big way this season. They looked good in the opener in a 19-6 win over another team I think is going to bounce...
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6 days ago  |  Discuss

Dallas Cowboys at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

Dallas Cowboys (0-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-0) I had the Cowboys at 4-12 coming into the season, but even that might have been a little optimistic, based on their play against the 49ers week 1 in a 28-13 home loss. Their defense was just as bad as I expected, unable to get off the field and essentially showing themselves to be non-existent. However, Tony Romo looked like he was turning...
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7 days ago  |  Discuss

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

Miami Dolphins (1-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-0) I had these two teams as essentially even before the season started and I really have much of a reason to change that drastically right now. The Dolphins got an impressive home victory over the Patriots, but the Bills were able to win on the road in Chicago. The Bears aren’t a great team or anything, but it’s always impressive when...
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7 days ago  |  Discuss

Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

Atlanta Falcons (1-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-0) I had the Bengals going 12-4 before the season started. I thought they were better than their record last season because they were able to be a dominant team (11-5) without relying on always winning the turnover battle. Turnover margins are really unpredictable and inconsistent on a week-to-week and year-to-year basis. They finished...
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8 days ago  |  Discuss

Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Redskins: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at Washington Redskins (0-1) The Redskins lost in Houston last week and it seems that people have already given up on them as a bounce back team. After all, the Texans won just 2 games last season. I don’t think that’s the right reaction. I think it’s way more likely that the Texans are also going to be a bounce back team this season. Their offense...
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8 days ago  |  Discuss

New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

New England Patriots (0-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-0) This is the overreaction line of the week. A week ago, most people had the Patriots as one of the top few teams in the NFL and had the Vikings as mediocre at best. The Vikings looked good blowing out a Rams team that had to turn to their 3rd string quarterback mid-game and the Patriots struggles in Miami against a capable Dolphins...
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8 days ago  |  Discuss

Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

Detroit Lions (1-0) at Carolina Panthers (1-0) The Lions were one of my underrated teams coming into the season. I felt the same way about the Lions as I did about the Panthers last season, when I predicted they would go 12-4, win the NFC South, and get a first round bye They have so much talent and finished 6th in rate of moving the chains last season, but they’ve had big issues...
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8 days ago  |  Discuss

Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

Chicago Bears (0-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-0) The Bears were one of my overrated teams going into the season. The Bears had a great offense last season, but they also had a defense that was worse than their offense was good. This season, I expected their offense to be worse without their defense being much better. The Bears moved the chains at a 75.68% rate last season, 4th in...
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8 days ago  |  Discuss

New York Jets at Green Bay Packers: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

New York Jets (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-1) The Packers got blown out in Seattle week 1, but there’s no shame in that and that doesn’t prove they won’t be a good team this season. They were 6-2 in games that Aaron Rodgers started and finished last season and that was even though they had other significant injuries. Now not only is Rodgers healthy, but also Randall Cobb,...
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8 days ago  |  Discuss

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-1) Last week I mentioned the Ravens’ home dominance in the write up about their game against the Bengals. The Ravens weren’t able to beat the Bengals, even in Baltimore, but the Ravens are still historically very good at home in the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco era. The Ravens are 41-10 at home since 2008, Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh’s...
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9 days ago  |  Discuss

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick

Carolina Panthers (0-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) This is another one I could go either way on. I think the line is essentially where it should be. I have these two teams as fairly even, as does this line, which favors the home team Buccaneers by 2.5 points. These two teams went 4-12 (Buccaneers) and 12-4 (Panthers) last season, but both should be much closer to the middle of...
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13 days ago  |  Discuss
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