LATEST STORIES FROM THE FOOTBALL FAN SPOT

New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

New York Giants (3-8) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-10) At first glance, as bad as the Jaguars are, this line does make sense. The Jaguars rank 30th, moving the chains at a 65.53% rate, as opposed to 73.01% for their opponents, a differential of -7.48%. However, the Giants aren’t exactly great, moving the chains at a 73.08% rate, as opposed to 74.79% for their opponents, a differential...
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3 hours ago  |  Discuss

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

Miami Dolphins (6-5) at New York Jets (2-9) The Jets were blown out last Monday, losing 38-3 in Detroit to the Bills in a game that had both its time and its location moved by a snow storm in Buffalo. Teams generally don’t do well off of a Monday Night blowout loss, going 18-28 ATS since 2002 after a loss on Monday Night by 21 or more. However, it’s unclear if the same type of...
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4 hours ago  |  Discuss

Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

Cleveland Browns (7-4) at Buffalo Bills (6-5) I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, the Browns are in their 2nd of two road games, which tends to be a good spot for teams. Teams are 46-26 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs off of a win as road underdogs. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really...
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4 hours ago  |  Discuss

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

Chicago Bears (4-7) at Detroit Lions (7-4) The Lions are in a nice spot here, after a very tough and unrewarding road trip that sent them to Arizona and New England, who are a combined 18-4. Teams that lose back-to-back road games are 43-25 ATS in their next game as long as they still have a winning record and they’re home favorites. It makes sense. Any team that is able to lose...
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5 hours ago  |  Discuss

New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

New Orleans Saints (4-7) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4) I am legitimately shocked. The Saints had won 20 straight home games as long as they had both Drew Brees under center and Sean Payton on the sideline and they had 3 straight home games as favorites to move to 7-4 and run away with the pathetic NFC South. And they lost all 3. The types of things that are plaguing this team are...
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17 hours ago  |  Discuss

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

Philadelphia Eagles (8-3) at Dallas Cowboys (8-3) The Cowboys have been horrible as home favorites since 2010, going 7-22 ATS in that situation. This isn’t unique to them as the whole NFC East recently has had less homefield advantage than average recently. At home, the NFC East is 73-82 since 2010, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.05 points per game and going 59-93 ATS...
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21 hours ago  |  Discuss

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

Seattle Seahawks (7-4) at San Francisco 49ers (7-4) The Seahawks beat the Cardinals in Seattle in impressive fashion last week, but they are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 46-20 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 44-21-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by 7.80 points per...
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23 hours ago  |  Discuss

Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

Arizona Cardinals (9-2) at Atlanta Falcons (4-7) The Falcons lost at home last week, but that hasn’t been the norm for them at home in the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era. They are 31-21-1 ATS at home (38-15 straight up) since those two came in back in 2008, as long as Matt Ryan is healthy, including 7-3 ATS as home underdogs, as they are here. The fact that they lost last week actually...
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1 day ago  |  Discuss

Washington Redskins at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

Washington Redskins (3-8) at Indianapolis Colts (7-4) The Redskins stand at 3-8, but they aren’t as bad as their record. Their -56 point differential isn’t as bad as their record. They have just 2 losses by more than 11 points. They’ve also been killed by the turnover battle (-9) and the return touchdown battle (-4), two things that tend to even out in the long run. On the...
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1 day ago  |  Discuss

New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

New England Patriots (9-2) at Green Bay Packers (8-3) The Patriots have been the better of these two teams this season, ranking 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Packers rank 7th. They’ve moved the chains at a 77.75% rate, as opposed to 72.42% for their opponents, a differential of 5.33%, while the Packers have moved them at an 80.17% rate, as opposed to...
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1 day ago  |  Discuss

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

Denver Broncos (8-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-4) The Chiefs lost to the Raiders last week. How are they going to beat the Broncos this week? The public is all over the Broncos as small road favorites here so that’s clearly what they’re thinking. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense as they always lose money in the long run and it makes sense to do so here. Yes, the...
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1 day ago  |  Discuss

San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

San Diego Chargers (6-5) at Baltimore Ravens (7-4) This line is way too low. The Ravens rank 5th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 76.84% rate, as opposed to 72.29% for their opponents, a differential of 4.55%. The Chargers, meanwhile, rank 15th, moving the chains at a 73.39% rate, as opposed to 72.56% for their opponents, a differential...
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1 day ago  |  Discuss

Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

Cleveland Browns (6-4) at Atlanta Falcons (4-6) This is probably the game I have a least feel for this week. On one hand, the Browns are a little bit better than the Falcons and this line at 3 suggests that these two teams are even with homefield advantage. The Browns rank 17th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 70.40% rate, as opposed to 70.12% for...
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4 days ago  |  Discuss

St. Louis Rams at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

St. Louis Rams (4-6) at San Diego Chargers (6-4) I’m completely split on this. On one hand, the Rams could easily be overconfident and off of a fluky win over the Broncos last week. The Broncos had more first downs (21 and 16) and an equal amount of offensive touchdowns (1), as the Rams were overly reliant on a +2 turnover margin. The Broncos moved the chains at a 68.75% rate,...
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4 days ago  |  Discuss

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8) at Chicago Bears (4-6) The Bears have a much tougher game next week against the Lions in Detroit in just 4 days on Thanksgiving after this game against the Buccaneers. Favorites of 6 or more (which the Bears are here) are just 46-80 ATS before being underdogs of 6 or more (the early line is 7) since 2002, while favorites are 36-58 ATS before Thursday Night...
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4 days ago  |  Discuss

Washington Redskins at San Francisco 49ers: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

Washington Redskins (3-7) at San Francisco 49ers (6-4) The San Francisco 49ers are 9 point favorites here at home over the Washington Redskins, but I think that line is much too high. For one thing, San Francisco has actually played significantly worse than their record this season, as they rank 19th in rate of moving the chains, moving the chains at a 72.13% rate, as opposed to...
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4 days ago  |  Discuss

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

Green Bay Packers (7-3) at Minnesota Vikings (4-6) The Packers have scored 108 points over the past two weeks, outscoring Chicago and Philadelphia by a combined total of 108-34 in back-to-back home games. However, now they have to go on the road, which has been a much bigger challenge for them. This season, they are 5-0 at home, but just 2-3 on the road with double digit losses in...
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4 days ago  |  Discuss

Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

Tennessee Titans (2-8) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-3) Both of these teams will be divisional road underdogs next week, Philadelphia in Dallas and Tennessee in Houston, so both of them are in bad spots. Teams are 86-106 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs, while non-divisional road underdogs are 51-80 ATS before being divisional road...
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4 days ago  |  Discuss

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills in Detroit: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

New York Jets (2-8) at Buffalo Bills (5-5) in Detroit In case you haven’t heard, this game is getting moved from Buffalo to Detroit as a result of the massive snowstorm that hit Buffalo this weekend. This line moved from 4.5 to 3 as a result, but I don’t think that’s nearly a big enough line movement. The typical line movement for homefield advantage is 3 and I think this is...
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4 days ago  |  Discuss

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

Arizona Cardinals (9-1) at Seattle Seahawks (6-4) It takes a lot for me to go against Seattle at home, given how consistently good they’ve been there in recent years. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 45-20 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 43-21-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by XX points per game. This is opposed to...
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4 days ago  |  Discuss

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

Dallas Cowboys (7-3) at New York Giants (3-7) One of the more powerful trends says that road favorites of 3 or more are incredibly dominant off of a bye, going 40-12 ATS since 2002, including 21-4 ATS in divisional matchups, like this one here. It makes sense. The Cowboys are a significantly better team than the Giants and should be very well prepared for this game with 2 weeks off...
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6 days ago  |  Discuss

Detroit Lions at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

Detroit Lions (7-3) at New England Patriots (8-2) The Patriots have scored 243 points in the last 6 weeks since that embarrassing loss in Kansas City, more than 21 teams have scored all season. Over those past 6 weeks, they are moving the chains at an 82.74% rate, as opposed to 73.76% for their opponents. For comparison sake, in the first 4 weeks of the season, they moved the chains...
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6 days ago  |  Discuss

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) at Indianapolis Colts (6-4) The Jaguars aren’t the worst team in the NFL, as the Raiders are winless at 0-10 and have looked really, really bad in the process, but they’ve still been horrible over the past two seasons. They have covered just 9 of their last 27 games, dating back to week 17 of 2012. Over those 27 games, they lost 17 of them by double...
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6 days ago  |  Discuss

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

Cincinnati Bengals (6-3-1) at Houston Texans (5-5) I love fading the public whenever it makes sense. The odds makers always make money in the long run and they always have a much better sense of how good each team actually is because it’s their job to set these lines. I especially love fading the public when they’re on an underdog. They very rarely are, but if they are, chances...
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7 days ago  |  Discuss

Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

Baltimore Ravens (6-4) at New Orleans Saints (4-6) The Saints have lost back-to-back home games, but that doesn’t completely erase what they’ve historically done at home in recent memory. Before these last two games, they had won 20 straight home games under Sean Payton and they are still 18-3-1 ATS at home over their last 22 home games with Drew Brees and Sean Payton, outscoring...
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7 days ago  |  Discuss
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