Same article:Will Rob Gronkowski score a touchdown?Yes: -160No: +140Will Rob Gronkowski score a touchdown in the first half?Yes: +175No: -200These two bets, taken together, are a very weird mix. The given likelihood of Gronkowski scoring a touchdown in the first half is just 35.3 percent, but his odds of scoring a touchdown in the game are at 59.6 percent. Those two numbers imply...

I still can't believe Barnwell actually wrote this:What will the jersey number be of the first player to score a touchdown?Over 80.5: EVENUnder 80.5: -120Few things have made me question my life decisions more than putting together a spreadsheet to answer this question. But I did it, taking every player who has scored for these two teams this year, removing guys who aren't going...

Fifth annual, and still going strong(?). Here we go:Who will win the Super Bowl XLVI Coin Toss?SportsBetting:Giants, +102Patriots, +102What will be the result of Super Bowl XLVI Coin Toss?SportsBetting:Heads, +102Tails, +102Not quite as good as last year, but this is still one of my favorites.Will Gisele Bundchen be shown on TB during the game?From kickoff to final whistle, live...

Well, the Texans-Broncos combo worked out well, which was fortunate. In my particular pool Houston actually ended up being more popular than New Orleans, which must have been people wanting to save NOLA for future rounds. That made Saints-Broncos the best combo from an round one EV standpoint, although it's obviously not as attractive when you consider future value.Anyway, on to...

Quick format summary: Same idea as regular season Survivor: except pick one team on Wild Card Saturday, one on WC Sunday, one in second round, one on CC Sunday, one in Super Bowl. Can't use any team twice, lose and you're out.As noted on Twitter the other day, this year's first round doesn't set up quite as favorably as it has in the past. Last season there was a huge favorite on...

Last week:CAR: W, 48-16PIT: W, 27-0BAL: W, 20-14HOU: L, 19-16TEN: W, 23-17WAS: L, 33-26GB: W, 35-21Teams used: Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, New England, Cincinnati, New Orleans,Tennessee, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Dallas, NY Jets, San Francisco, Baltimore, Atlanta, Carolina.This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:Impressively, I've already used each of the seven...

Last week:TEN: L, 27-13ATL: W, 41-14NO: W, 42-20GB: L, 19-14ARI: W, 20-17NYG: L, 23-10CIN: W, 20-13Teams used: Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, New England, Cincinnati, New Orleans, Tennessee, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Dallas, NY Jets, San Francisco, Baltimore, Atlanta.This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:I'm pleasantly surprised that I have two decent options...

Last week:BAL: W, 24-10PIT: W, 14-3SEA: W, 30-13NYJ: W, 37-10DET: W, 34-28GB: W, 46-16Teams used: Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, New England, Cincinnati, New Orleans, Tennessee, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Dallas, NY Jets, San Francisco, Baltimore.This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:The Falcons are easily my best option this week, so they are the pick.

Last week:SF: W, 26-0NE: W, 31-24CHI: L, 10-3BAL: W, 24-10NO: W, 31-17DAL: L, 19-13Teams used: Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, New England, Cincinnati, New Orleans, Tennessee, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Dallas, NY Jets, San Francisco.This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:Picking the most popular team again, but I really have no choice but to go with Baltimore this week.

Last week:ATL: W, 24-14CIN: W, 23-20PIT: W, 13-9DAL: W, 20-19CAR: W, 27-19NYJ: W, 28-24HOU: W, 20-13Well that is boring.Teams used: Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, New England, Cincinnati, New Orleans, Tennessee, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Dallas, NY Jets.This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:The Patriots are a ridiculously good option this week, at ~95% to win...

Last week:NE: W, 34-3SF: W, 23-7DET: W, 49-35GB: W, 35-26NYJ: L, 17-13DAL: W, 27-24ATL: W, 23-17CHI: W, 31-20BAL: W, 31-24Thanks, Graham.Teams used: Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, New England, Cincinnati, New Orleans, Tennessee, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Dallas.This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:My three best options this week are the Jets, Chargers, and Falcons...

Last week:PHI: L, 21-17BAL: L, 22-17GB: W, 45-7SD: L, 24-17JAX: W, 17-3I don't know what the record is for most outright losses in a season when favored by >7 points, but the Eagles are gunning for it. That's four.Teams used: Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, New England, Cincinnati, New Orleans, Tennessee, Philadelphia, Green Bay.This week's consensus numbers from OFP...

Last week:HOU: W, 30-12ATL: W, 31-7DAL: W, 23-13OAK: L, 38-24KC: L, 31-3NE: L, 24-20NO: W, 27-16PHI: L, 30-24That was unfortunate, but might as well keep going for 16-1.Teams used: Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, New England, Cincinnati, New Orleans, Tennessee, Philadelphia.This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:Green Bay is the best option this week, by quite...

Last week:BAL: W, 30-27SF: W, 20-10NYG: W, 20-17NO: L, 31-21TEN: W, 27-10HOU: W, 24-14The flipping Cardinals.Teams used: Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, New England, Cincinnati, New Orleans, Tennessee.This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:Houston (vs. Cleveland)Already picked.Atlanta (at Indianapolis)Not sure why the Falcons are so popular in Y!. Despite my apparent...

Last week:DAL: W, 34-7NO: W, 62-7BAL: L, 12-7GB: W, 33-27Ponder was so close, but 87.3% of OFP ended up advancing to Week 8.Teams used: Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, New England, Cincinnati, New Orleans.This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:Baltimore (vs. Arizona)The Ravens are the biggest favorite available to me this week, but I'd rather not use them unless...

Last week:GB: W, 24-3NYJ: W, 24-6PIT: W, 17-13OAK: W, 24-17CIN: W, 27-17BAL: W, 29-14Not a very productive week for whittling down the field, with 97.1% of OFP entries advancing. Solid week overall though, since most people used a team with more future value than Cincinnati (or Oakland).Teams used: Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, New England, Cincinnati.This week's consensus...

Last week:NYG: L, 36-25NO: W, 30-27NE: W, 30-21HOU: L, 25-20SD: W, 29-24DET: W, 24-13GB: W, 25-14PIT: W, 38-17Not that tricky.The loss of a team picked by about two-thirds of the remaining entrants has a few implications, including:All the remaining entries have one thing in common: they didn't pick the Giants last week. That's an obvious statement of course, but the fact that all...

Last week:GB: W, 49-23TB: W, 24-17NO: W, 23-10CHI: W, 34-29BUF: L, 23-20ATL: W, 30-28SD: W, 26-16PHI: L, 24-23Blog picks have been doing well, but: flip the Eagles. 90.3% of OFP contestants advanced last week.Teams used: Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay.This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:NY Giants (vs. Seattle)This is a pretty weird week, as the Giants are ridiculously...

Last week:SD: W, 20-17PIT: W, 23-20NE: L, 34-31TEN: W, 17-14PHI: L, 29-16It was almost a ridiculous week for eliminations, with none of the five teams above winning by more than a field goal. In the end though, the two most popular teams advanced and 87% of OFP entries moved on to Week 4.Teams used: Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh.This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!: Green...

Last week:PIT: W, 24-0NYJ: W, 32-3GB: W, 30-23DET: W, 48-3A few unfortunate folks had the Ravens, but not much of a week for eliminations, as about 95% of OFP entries advanced.Teams used: Houston, Detroit.This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:San Diego (vs. Kansas City)The Chargers are extremely likely (~88%) to win this week; unfortunately everybody knows this, and it...

Last week:KC: L, 41-7NE: W, 38-24ARI: W, 28-21CLE: L, 27-17SD: W, 24-17PHI: W, 31-13HOU: W, 34-7We lost 29% of the entries in OFP, and it could have been a lot worse, as the Cardinals and Chargers both trailed late.Teams used: Houston.This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:Pittsburgh (vs. Seattle)Fairly standard spot here: Biggest favorite of the week, overwhelmingly popular...

We're back! Obviously have not been doing too much blogging recently, but after last year's dominant performance (3-3), demand for this series was so high that I just couldn't say no.This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:Kansas City (vs. Buffalo)The Chiefs, favored by 6 on Sunday, are this week's most popular team, but aren't exactly running away with it. The most appealing...

Here's the final top 10:The round-by-round scores are before applying the 100%/75%/50%/25% weighting, so that's why they don't add up to the total score.Congratulations to this year's winner, MXS, who was solid throughout. He was actually not one of the people who got all four #1 seeds right in each round (that'd be Audacity of Hoops and Matt P.), but made up for that on the other...

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