LATEST STORIES FROM VEGAS WATCH
2009 NFL Survivor: Week 9
4 days ago by
Vegas Watch
| Comments
| Comments
Last week:SD: W, 24-16CHI: W, 30-6ARI: L, 34-21DAL: W, 38-17IND: W, 18-14DET: L, 17-10NO: W, 35-27OFP had 10.4% of entries knocked out last week; the Yahoo! entrants were a bit more bullish on Arizona, which caused 13.9% of them to go down. There are 60,648 entries left in the Yahoo...
Evaluating April MLB Predictions (2005-2009)
5 days ago by
Vegas Watch
| Comments
| Comments
First off, here are the final 2009 standings:Not much has changed since we last checked in. Most of these got a bit lower, as you'd expect with the slightly larger sample size; CAIRO ended up gaining a decent amount of separation from the pack.Of course, there's all sorts of...
2010 College Hoops Previews: The Pac-10
7 days ago by
Vegas Watch
| Comments
| Comments
Here's the fifth installment of the mammoth 2010 College Hoops Previews series. This time I'm joined by JP, ML, and RTC. For more details on what's going on with the ratings, go here and here; the new regression ratings for the Pac-10 are here. All team ratings from kenpom...
This Week's Links (10/26-10/30)
7 days ago by
Vegas Watch
| Comments
| Comments
I don't want to look at them before we finish our previews, but the preseason college hoops rankings were released.Heck, I'm nervous writing this links post.Basketball Prospectus projects the 2009-10 NBA season."Is Ryan Howard really that bad versus LHP?"
2009 NFL Survivor: Week 8
10 days ago by
Vegas Watch
| Comments
| Comments
Apologies for the delay, (hopefully) won't happen again.Last week:IND: W, 42-6NE: 35-7OFP had 5.8% of entries knocked out last week, while that figure was slightly lower in the Yahoo! pool, at 3.9%. There are 71,270 entries left in the Yahoo! pool.Teams used (DAVE rank): New England...
This Week's Links (10/19-10/23)
16 days ago by
Vegas Watch
| Comments
| Comments
There will be a Basketball Prospectus 2010 Major-Conference Preview this year. Also, Gasaway talked to UMHoops.com.Safe!USS Mariner's DMZ put together a cool iPhone app.An interview with Cardinals AGM John Abbamondi.
2009 NFL Survivor: Week 7
19 days ago by
Vegas Watch
| Comments
| Comments
Last week:PIT: W, 27-14PHI: L, 13-9GB: W, 26-0JAC: W, 23-20 (OT)NYJ: L, 16-13 (OT)NE: W, 59-0We finally had some people knocked out in the late games on Sunday; 44.4% of the Yahoo! pool was eliminated, nearly as high a percentage as the first four weeks combined (47.1%). There are...
2010 College Hoops Previews: The SEC
21 days ago by
Vegas Watch
| Comments
| Comments
Here's the fourth installment of the mammoth 2010 College Hoops Previews series. This time I'm joined by JP, ML, and RTC; no commentary from JP but he did manage to submit ratings. For more details on what's going on with the ratings, go here and here; the new regression...
This Week's Links (10/12-10/16)
22 days ago by
Vegas Watch
| Comments
| Comments
Fire Shapiro?Louisville's Terrence Jennings and Jerry Smith show excellent judgment.CC Sabathia is a big Bert Blyleven fan.You're sitting on a gold mine, Trebek.
Updated 2009 NFL Wins Over/Unders
23 days ago by
Vegas Watch
| Comments
| Comments
Bodog has posted revised win totals for a few notable teams. Here they are, compared to the numbers Bodog had for each team back in May, and the rates at which each team would have to win the rest of the season to hit their new total:Even during their hot start, the Bengals' DVOA...
2009 NFL Survivor: Week 6
25 days ago by
Vegas Watch
| Comments
| Comments
Last week:PIT: W, 28-20NYG: W, 44-7PHI: W, 33-14DAL: W, 26-20MIN: W, 38-10BAL: L, 17-14Third straight, and fourth of five, slow week for eliminations, with 5.3% of the Yahoo! pool going down.Teams used (DAVE rank): Philadelphia (3rd), New Orleans (4th), Dallas (11th), Washington (20th...
Likelihood of MLB Playoff Sweeps (1999-2009)
27 days ago by
Vegas Watch
| Comments
| Comments
This is pretty random, but I was curious so I decided to look into it. It seemed like the Yankees' ALDS sweep was one of the more predictable sweeps in recent memory, while the Dodgers taking down the Cardinals in three came as a bit of a surprise. Covers has lines going back all...
Series Win Probability Graphs: STL vs. LAD
27 days ago by
Vegas Watch
| Comments
| Comments
Trying something new here, so any feedback would be appreciated. I did two things to come up with the graph below. First, I adjusted the FanGraphs win probabilities for each game based on the line, so instead of starting G1 at 50-50, the Dodgers started at 44.4% (+122/-130).I then...
This Week's Links (10/5-10/9)
October 09, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
| Comments
| Comments
Pro Basketball Prospectus 2009-10 is out.Interesting Advanced NFL Stats post on how distance to go on fourth down effects whether a team punts or kicks a FG, which it should be pretty much irrelevant. I like the theory by the third commenter, which Phil Birnbaum explains a bit further...
2009 NFL Survivor: Week 5
October 07, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
| Comments
| Comments
Last week:NYG: W, 27-16SF: W, 35-0CHI: W, 48-24IND: W, 34-17CIN: W, 23-20HOU: W, 29-6Another terrible week for eliminations, with just 1.8% of the Yahoo! field being eliminated.Teams used (DAVE rank): New Orleans (2nd), Dallas (14th), Houston (18th), Washington (19th)Here are this...
DS Previews
October 07, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
| Comments
| Comments
I'm going to keep this fairly quick, since I've had zero time all week; hopefully I'll be able to get something up on the Red Sox series tonight.Rockies @ PhilliesCurrent Pinnacle series line: PHI -152/COL +142Game 1 line: Jimenez +124 @ Lee -132Identical regular season...
MLB Totals Contest Final Standings
October 04, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
| Comments
| Comments
Here's the final top 10:Congratulations to "cmac" who went 9-1, only missing (by half a win) on the Astros total. His nine successful picks were: ATL O, LAD O, NYM U, TBR U, PIT U, OAK U, CHC U, CIN U, STL O.Sadly, Tocchet's quest for 0-10 failed, as he ended up hitting...
This Week's Links (9/28-10/2)
October 01, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
| Comments
| Comments
MVP.Colin Wyers debunks the debunker.Some interesting data from Sean Forman in #53 on how often teams sweep doubleheaders.What were the KU football/basketball incidents (reportedly) about? "Girlfriend issues", of course.
2009 NFL Survivor: Week 4
September 29, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
| Comments
| Comments
Last week:BAL: W, 34-3GB: W, 36-17PHI: W, 34-14NYG: W, 24-0DAL: W, 21-7Not a strong week for eliminations, with the five most popular selections each winning by at least two TDs. The Redskins and Steelers did knock a few misguided people out; 7.0% of the Yahoo! pool failed to advance...
Evaluating April MLB Predictions (2009)
September 28, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
| Comments
| Comments
This is, incredibly, the third annual version of this post. The tone of this year's edition will be a bit different, for two reasons. One is that PECOTA, which had a tremendous track record between '05 and '08, was actually the worst out of all the projections I collected...
This Week's Links (9/21-9/25)
September 25, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
| Comments
| Comments
Zack Greinke has terrible command."How many home runs would Pujols hit if he was pitched to like Juan Pierre?"Another cool Flip Flop Fly Ball graph on how often the "best team" wins the World Series.
Untitled
September 24, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
| Comments
| Comments
Zack Greinke has terrible command."How many home runs would Pujols hit if he was pitched to like Juan Pierre?"Another cool Flip Flop Fly Ball graph on how often the "best team" wins the World Series.
2009 NFL Survivor: Week 3
September 23, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
| Comments
| Comments
Last week:MIN: W, 27-13WAS: W, 9-7GB: L, 31-24TEN: L, 34-31Pretty big week for eliminations, with 26.5% of the ESPN pool getting knocked out and 27.2% of the Yahoo! pool going down.Teams used (DAVE rank): New Orleans (11th), Washington (16th)Here are this week's most popular selections...
2009-2010 College Hoops Projections: Adding Recruiting Ratings
September 22, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
| Comments
| Comments
Six weeks ago I wrote about a college basketball projection "system" that I had started working on, which uses a team's previous year's KenPom rating along with how many minutes they had returning to project how strong they'd be in the following year.As with any...
MLB Totals Contest Update (September 21)
September 19, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
| Comments
| Comments
Through games of Sunday 9/20. This is just the number games each total is projected to win/lose by, multiplied by its confidence level; I'll try to put together a more extensive post next week. The current top 10:"cmac" is on pace to go 10/10, which would be quite impressive...
SITE INFORMATION
Vegas Watch
About seven posts a week, concentrating on baseball and college basketball. Analysis, betting advice, links, player profiles, statistical analysis.
Related Yards
Today's Best Stuff
For Bloggers
Company Info
Help
What is Yardbarker?
Join the Yardbarker Network (YBN) for more promotion, traffic, and money.
