LATEST STORIES FROM VEGAS WATCH
DS Previews
October 07, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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I'm going to keep this fairly quick, since I've had zero time all week; hopefully I'll be able to get something up on the Red Sox series tonight.Rockies @ PhilliesCurrent Pinnacle series line: PHI -152/COL +142Game 1 line: Jimenez +124 @ Lee -132Identical regular season...
MLB Totals Contest Final Standings
October 04, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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Here's the final top 10:Congratulations to "cmac" who went 9-1, only missing (by half a win) on the Astros total. His nine successful picks were: ATL O, LAD O, NYM U, TBR U, PIT U, OAK U, CHC U, CIN U, STL O.Sadly, Tocchet's quest for 0-10 failed, as he ended up hitting...
This Week's Links (9/28-10/2)
October 01, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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MVP.Colin Wyers debunks the debunker.Some interesting data from Sean Forman in #53 on how often teams sweep doubleheaders.What were the KU football/basketball incidents (reportedly) about? "Girlfriend issues", of course.
2009 NFL Survivor: Week 4
September 29, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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Last week:BAL: W, 34-3GB: W, 36-17PHI: W, 34-14NYG: W, 24-0DAL: W, 21-7Not a strong week for eliminations, with the five most popular selections each winning by at least two TDs. The Redskins and Steelers did knock a few misguided people out; 7.0% of the Yahoo! pool failed to advance...
Evaluating April MLB Predictions (2009)
September 28, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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This is, incredibly, the third annual version of this post. The tone of this year's edition will be a bit different, for two reasons. One is that PECOTA, which had a tremendous track record between '05 and '08, was actually the worst out of all the projections I collected...
This Week's Links (9/21-9/25)
September 25, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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Zack Greinke has terrible command."How many home runs would Pujols hit if he was pitched to like Juan Pierre?"Another cool Flip Flop Fly Ball graph on how often the "best team" wins the World Series.
Untitled
September 24, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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Zack Greinke has terrible command."How many home runs would Pujols hit if he was pitched to like Juan Pierre?"Another cool Flip Flop Fly Ball graph on how often the "best team" wins the World Series.
2009 NFL Survivor: Week 3
September 23, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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Last week:MIN: W, 27-13WAS: W, 9-7GB: L, 31-24TEN: L, 34-31Pretty big week for eliminations, with 26.5% of the ESPN pool getting knocked out and 27.2% of the Yahoo! pool going down.Teams used (DAVE rank): New Orleans (11th), Washington (16th)Here are this week's most popular selections...
2009-2010 College Hoops Projections: Adding Recruiting Ratings
September 22, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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Six weeks ago I wrote about a college basketball projection "system" that I had started working on, which uses a team's previous year's KenPom rating along with how many minutes they had returning to project how strong they'd be in the following year.As with any...
MLB Totals Contest Update (September 21)
September 19, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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Through games of Sunday 9/20. This is just the number games each total is projected to win/lose by, multiplied by its confidence level; I'll try to put together a more extensive post next week. The current top 10:"cmac" is on pace to go 10/10, which would be quite impressive...
This Week's Links (9/14-9/18)
September 18, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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The FJM Reunion.Cool new site that archives futures lines. If you have any old ones lying around that he doesn't have, go ahead and e-mail him, this could end up being a really good resource.Pos responds to Robothal. Also, buy the book!LoHud's Peter Abraham is leaving to work...
2009 NFL Survivor: Week 2
September 16, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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Last week:NO: W, 45-27BAL: W, 38-24SD: W, 24-20MIN: W, 34-20NE: W, 25-24 (lock city, had it the whole way)SEA: W, 28-0Looks like about 8.8% of the ESPN contestants that managed to make selections were eliminated last week; Cincy (2.6%) and Arizona (2.1%) were the most popular losers...
2010 College Hoops Previews: The Big Ten
September 14, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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Here's the third installment of the mammoth 2010 College Hoops Previews series. Once again I'm joined by JP, ML, and RTC. For more details on what's going on with the ratings, go here and here; the regression ratings for the Big Ten are here. All team ratings from kenpom...
This Week's Links (9/7-9/11)
September 10, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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ESPN released their Big Monday schedule.Wyers compares EqA and wOBA."Maybe the worst sports column ever".What a shot.
NFL 2009: "To Win Division" Odds
September 09, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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It paid off to wait until the last minute for this, since Football Outsiders posted their updated DVOA/win projections late Wednesday afternoon. This post will focus a lot more on the odds than why each team is projected as they are -- I find that when I get into the latter I end up...
2009 NFL Survivor: Week 1
September 08, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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Last year: 17-0This year: likely worse.Zero contestants were eliminated last week.Teams used: none.Sorry, just trying to keep the standard format. Here are this week's most popular selections in the ESPN pool:New Orleans (vs. Detroit)This is certainly the most obvious option of...
Updated NFL Week 1 Lines (2009)
September 07, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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About three months ago I posted early Week 1 lines, here's how they've changed since:A lot more movement than last year, even in the shorter timeframe. I'm not sure why the DEN-CIN number moved so much, beyond people realizing that the Broncos likely aren't going to...
This Week's Links (8/31-9/4)
September 03, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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Join the VW ESPN Eliminator Challenge group.Jay Jaffe tries his hand at an MVP predictor. I still think Mauer is going to win.Tango on the fairness of fantasy snake drafts.LVSC preseason college football rankings.
NFL 2009: Divisional Finishing Positions
September 01, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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BetUS has posted odds for where each NFL team will finish in their division at the end of the year. Here they are, along with the corresponding percentages in my sim:I'm not going to go over each of the 128 possible combinations, and I'm actually going to ignore the "to...
NFL 2009: Undefeated Odds
August 31, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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Here are the odds listed at BetUS compared to the results from 100,000 iterations of my sim:(click to enlarge)As you can see, there's not much here; the Rams are the "best" bet of the bunch, coming in at an ROI of -30%. And that's using a FO win projection which doesn...
Uncertainty in NFL Projections
August 30, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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As I believe I have mentioned, I've been working on putting together a simulation of the NFL season, using a combination of the Football Outsiders win projections and the Vegas O/Us to determine team strength. That part is simple enough; I have a regression equation I derived from...
This Week's Links (8/24-8/28)
August 27, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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A summary of Rush the Court's college hoops Team of the 2000s series.FO's Aaron Schatz interviewed by Simmons and Leitch.Go vote in Tango's 2009 Fans Scouting Report.Francoeur hits into the second game-ending unassisted triple play in MLB history.
Prospective 2009 NFL Lines
August 26, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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Earlier this week, SportsBetting released "prospective" lines for each game of the upcoming NFL season. Some sites release "Game of the Year" lines -- just a few games per week, if that -- but S'Bett went all out, offering all 250 post-Week 1 games. When I first...
2010 College Hoops Previews: The Big 12
August 23, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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Here's the second installment of the mammoth 2010 College Hoops Previews series. Once again I'm joined by JP and ML, and this time Randy from RTC contributed as well. For more details on what's going on with the ratings, go here and here; the regression ratings for the...
This Week's Links (8/17-8/21)
August 21, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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So, you're saying that referring to Jon Heyman as "Scott Boras' lackey" while interviewing him isn't a good idea?VTVT post on 2009 futures positions.Jose Lopez's impressive HR spray chart."How Much is Derek Jeter Defying Aging Defensively?"Gasaway...
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