LATEST STORIES FROM VEGAS WATCH
This Week's Links (8/10-8/14)
August 14, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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Post coming next week with at least one interesting NFL projections observation.Mitch Lowe mania recapped.There really are lines for LLWS games.Pomeroy tries his hand at golf.
2010 College Hoops Previews: The ACC
August 10, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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This whole "rating 73+ teams" thing was far too large of a project for me to take on myself, so I enlisted the help of a couple friends: JP from Sports Investments, and ML from The TMLJ. We used the ratings described last week (those ratings for the ACC are here) as a baseline...
This Week's Links (8/3-8/7)
August 07, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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xlsSports posted an NFL season simulator. As soon as I figure out what to use for the standard deviation, I'll have a post using this to break down the "to win division" odds.Posnanski gets his "dream job".ML's CFB previews: Florida, Penn St., Ohio St.AM19PSU...
Projecting the 2009-2010 College Hoops Season
August 03, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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Last year, I wrote a post on finding the "happy medium" between in-season Pythag and preseason PECOTA for MLB teams. I've always wanted to do something similar for college basketball, but that wasn't possible since Nate Silver doesn't do college hoops projections...
This Week's Links (7/27-7/31)
July 30, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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Rickey's Hall of Fame speech.Bill James on steroids.When baseballs attack sub-replacement level outfielders.The NFL hates gambling. Hates it. About as much as I do.Odds on where Michael Vick will sign.
MLB Totals Contest Update (July 28)
July 28, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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Through games of Monday 7/27. Not nearly enough money in the Matchbook market for these right now, so this is just the number games each total is projected to win/lose by, multiplied by its confidence level. The top 10:"Muzzy" is sitting pretty with the LAD O, OAK U, WAS...
Football Outsiders vs. Vegas: 2007-2009
July 26, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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With the year's edition of the Football Outsiders book being released in various forms recently, now is as good a time as any to compare FO's win projections from previous yeras to the Vegas lines. Here are the average misses of both over the last three years (see last year...
Handicapping the 2009 Home Run Derby
July 12, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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First a disclaimer: This is mostly just for fun. I have no idea if there's any correlation between these stats and performance in the Derby. If I had to guess, I'd say there is, but it's probably not very strong. Odds taken from The Greek. Stats through Thursday's games...
This Week's Links (7/6-7/10)
July 10, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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Who's MLB's best player, pound for pound? The result may shock you.Posnanski on Roddick.I'm somewhat upset I wasn't around for the Nats game on Tuesday night.BA's midseason top 25 prospects.Breaking down Jamie McOwen's 45-game Cal League hit streak.Nate Silver...
Obama First Pitch Odds
July 07, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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5Dimes is awesome:There are plenty of pictures of Obama throwing out the first pitch for the White Sox last October, but I can't find a video. It looks like he stood at the top of the mound, which is both good (he at least thinks he knows what he's doing), and bad (it's...
AL Update: 13 Weeks In
July 06, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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How well did the game lines from April and May (that's simplifying it, but those are basically the time frames) predict those in June (through 6/28)? Pretty closely:I can't think of any reason for the April lines to be weighted more heavily than the May odds; that's probably...
This Week's Links (6/29-7/3)
July 03, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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Posnanski questions Hillman's use of Meche.Wyers on the reliability of UZR.Brooklyn native Lance Stephenson signs with Cincy.Nate Silver is playing in the WSOP.Pos on The Great Mariano.The OC Register interviews Sean "CHONE" Smith.RAB looks at the accuracy of various MLB mock drafts.
These Weeks' Links (6/15-6/19, 6/22-6/26)
June 26, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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Brandon Jennings made quite an entrance.Steve Lyons really doesn't like sabermetrics. Neither does Harold Reynolds.USC is the favorite to be the next school to commit an NCAA violation.Simmons' draft diary.What's the problem with the Indians?Are golfers more aggressive...
2009 NBA Draft Live Chat
June 25, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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Starting at 7pm EST.2009 NBA Draft Live Chat
This Week's Links (6/8-6/12)
June 11, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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I have $18MM in the "how much guaranteed money will Strasburg get" pool. I think I'm in pretty good shape, actually.Get your Natinals shirts here.Early HITf/x analysis from Pavlidis, Fast, and a bit more from Fast.MGL and Gassko on out-guessing projections.
Road Trip Time
June 10, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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Posting may be light over the next couple weeks, but at least I have an excuse:There's also probably going to be a Royals game in there, we just don't which day.I suppose I'll post if I have something really exciting to say about Cardinals-Indians, we'll see. Or maybe...
Draft Things
June 08, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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We are doing a live chat, starting at 6pm, at FanHouse, which can be found here.Keith Law mocks: 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, and final. I might do a post after tonight on how the accuracy differs with each revision. Also, an argument on why Strasburg's chances of success can't really be...
This Week's Links (6/1-6/5)
June 05, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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No, Randy Johnson won't be the last 300 games winner. Who'll be next? Who knows.John Sterling really just needs to stop.Pro Football Prospectus won't be available in bookstores this year, but there will be a couple versions available online.Should be interesting to see...
Prospective NBA Finals Lines
June 02, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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Continuing with this week's apparent theme of random odds, I don't know that I've ever seen this before. SportsBetting has posted lines for games two through seven of the NBA Finals, despite the fact that the series doesn't even start until Thursday night. Here are...
2009 NFL Week 1 Lines
June 01, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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From Sportsbook. They changed a bit between April and September last year, but not all that much.Titans (+5) @ SteelersDolphins (+4) @ FalconsChiefs (+8.5) @ RavensEagles (+1) @ PanthersBroncos (pk) @ BengalsVikings (-3) @ BrownsJets (+4) @ TexansJaguars (+7) @ ColtsLions (+11.5) ...
LeBron's MVPs
June 01, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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From SportsBetting:He's got one so far, which means he needs to win it in at least four of the next nine seasons for this to go over. He'd have to become the fourth guy in history to win five. Russell did it over an eight year span, and Abdul-Jabbar won six in 10 years. Jordan...
This Week's Links (5/25-5/29)
May 29, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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Wieters!RLYW breaks down Yankee Stadium's park factors.Vote for Manny.Posnanski unveils the official blog joke.“I don’t know what will happen tomorrow. But we’re not losing tonight.”Derrick Rose cheated (allegedly).
NL Update: Seven Weeks In
May 29, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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RS/G, RA/G: Through games of Wednesday, 5/27.Current: Current team strength in wins per 162 games against an average schedule, as described here.Current Div%: Current percentage chance of winning division, as of 7am EST on 5/29.Prev Div%: Percentage chance of winning division as of...
AL Update: Seven Weeks In
May 28, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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RS/G, RA/G: Through games of Tuesday, 5/26.Current: Current team strength in wins per 162 games against an average schedule, as described here.Current Div%: Current percentage chance of winning division, as of 7pm EST on 5/27.Prev Div%: Percentage chance of winning division as of three...
Projecting Big Papi
May 26, 2009 by
Vegas Watch
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Prior to Thursday night's game, the folks at Bodog posted some odds on how David Ortiz will fare the rest of the year. Most notably:Ortiz, as you likely know, has hit one home run thus far this season, on Wednesday night against the Blue Jays. Assuming he averages 3.34 PAs per...
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