It’s the final that we both learned to love and got bored of all in one year last year. The pair met 6 times in 2011, all of them in Grand Slam or Masters 1000 finals, and Djokovic won every single match. At this point he probably has quite a mental as well as physical edge over Nadal. Rafa rarely gives up though and his matches always involve a fight. And just like Federer/Nadal matches are always played at a very high level and are incredibly entertaining regardless of a pretty one-sided head-to-head record, expect the same to be true of this rivalry-even if Djokovic wins the next 6 in a row as well.
This entire preview presupposes that Djokovic can actually play this match at or at least near his highest level. He very clearly tweaked something in his quarterfinal match was very clearly hampered by something else in his semi. He didn’t seem to have problems moving but it looked like his breathing and fitness were not quite perfect. He went for a lot more on his shots than usual because he needed to play shorter points. It could have been the heat or it could have been a hamstring. If Djokovic can’t play at his best this match, Nadal will definitely have a much higher chance of ending this four-match losing streak.
Djokovic’s Keys to Victory:
1. Stay Confident- When Djokovic picked his career up to a new level last year, no individual part of his game in and of itself became perceptibly better. His confidence just rose and he began playing his entire game at a previously unseen level and consistency. Whatever Djokovic did to find that inner higher gear, he needs to keep it. He can’t let himself get distracted or down on himself on or off the court. We saw the difference. The old Djokovic lost to Nadal in the 2010 US Open final and at the year-end championships. The new confident Djokovic hasn’t lost to Nadal since. His attitude on court during his semifinal against Murray was troubling at times, but he has earned that benefit of the doubt and we can assume that any mental lapse won’t last long.
2. Pick on the Backhand- Djokovic did a great job last year of forcing Nadal into awkward situations. In fact, he became the first person we have really seen to ever really force one of Nadal’s shots to break down. He just kept pinning Nadal into the backhand corner and forcing tough shots that way. Nadal sprayed errors from that wing against Djokovic in ways that he has never really sprayed errors against anyone else. Djokovic needs to keep that up and keep Nadal uncomfortable until the errors start coming from that wing.
3. Keep the Ball Deep- The other thing that Djokovic really does to stop Nadal from playing his game is to keep the ball deep in the court. Very few players ever managed to consistently pin Nadal deep enough behind the baseline and hit good enough shots to really keep Nadal from getting comfortable. Djokovic did an amazing job of this last year and this really took Rafa off his game more than anything else. If he can keep that up, Nadal will have problems all night long.
Nadal’s Keys to Victory:
1. Serve Well- Rafa has never had a great serve. He won the 2010 US Open on the back of a bigger serve, but we haven’t seen that since as supposedly it hurt his shoulder. However, not having a big serve doesn’t mean that Rafa can’t serve effectively. His slider out wide is still very good and he uses spin well to put opponents in an awkward position on the return. Djokovic puts him at a disadvantage often in rallies, so winning free points off his serve will be key.
2. Do Something Different- I don’t care what it is. It can be anything. Here are the basics: Nadal has lost six straight matches to Djokovic. His game doesn’t work. He now plays with a slightly heavier racket, but I think that to affect Djokovic he needs to change something in his gameplan. It can be anything. He can hit the forehand flatter, not giving Djokovic as much time to line up shots. It can be approaching the net more and forcing Djokovic to hesitate before playing into Rafa’s backhand wing. It can be attacking the Djokovic second serve and making him worry about it. It can be anything. I don’t care what. But he has to do something different than last year. And if whatever he switches up doesn’t work, then he has to try changing something else.
3. Take the Ball Earlier- He usually doesn’t have to. Rafa’s game works perfectly against just about everyone he plays. But he just can’t win points past Djokovic. He hasn’t been able to do it since 2010. He needs to take more risks and take time away from Djokovic so that Novak can’t just play everything back deep. He needs to go for winners and, barring those, at least put Djokovic in an awkward position where he can’t just pin Rafa behind the baseline with deep rally shots.
4. Make Djokovic Run- As mentioned above, Djokovic is clearly hampered by something. It could have just been the heat and it could be that if the weather is cooler Sunday night that Djokovic will be completely fine. But it would be foolish of Rafa not to test that if he can. Make Djokovic run, keep the ball wide, and bring out any physical problems that Djokovic may have. Djokovic also had to run a ton against Murray even if he was healthy. It doesn’t matter how fit he is or that he’ll get a day off. That type of match takes something serious out of a player. Nadal should stretch the court, draw Djokovic wide and in, and test his fitness. If there is any lingering fatigue, Nadal needs to take serious advantage of it.
Prediction: Djokovic in 4
For my women’s final preview, please click here.
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