My mother always told me that I wasn't patient enough. I always wanted things right away. I find myself not looking forward to the start of the College Football Season -- I'm looking forward to the End of the College Football Season, more specifically a BCS Championship Game between USC and the winner of the SEC.

No offense to Arkansas, Tennessee, Auburn, etc. but I'm banking on the Florida or LSU winning the SEC.

So as an AccuScore Analyst I have access to the simulations and can run imaginary scenarios. I played LSU vs. USC and Florida vs. USC on a neutral field in good weather.

SCENARIO 1: LSU VS USC

LSU's defense should be better than ever, but no matter how good Matt Flynn is, LSU's offense has to replace JaMarcus Russell, Dwayne Bowe, and Craig Davis. The Trojan's defense locks down on LSU's Early Doucet holding him to just 5 receptions and 55 yards. Doucet is scoring a touchdown in just 33% of simulations. USC's John David Booty is taking what the LSU Defense is giving him. He is averaging 200 yards per simulation which is good, but not great. The key for USC is his excellent TD:INT ratio (1.5 TDs per sim, 0.6 INTs per sim). With Booty's poise and a balanced running attack including Chauncey Washington, C.J. Gable and freshman difference maker Joe McKnight, USC gets the slightest edge in simulations.

USC is winning 52.8% of simulations and the average score is USC 24, LSU 23.

SCENARIO 2: FLORIDA VS USC

In 2006, the top rated freshman recruit was Percy Harvin who has been justifiably...

The first USA TODAY Coaches Poll was announced and USC is ranked #1. No one is going to vehemently disagree with that assessment. Even though USC lost its top 2 receivers ( Dwayne Jarrett, Steve Smith), the team is still loaded.

However, I looked at some initial AccuScore simulation results for the 2007 Season and found this dichotomy (forgive me if I'm using this word incorrectly):

1 - AccuScore expects USC to finish the Regular Season ranked #1

2 - AccuScore would have USC as the 3rd best team in the SEC.

I should clarify it's not really AccuScore that is reporting this directly, but rather my interpretation of the preliminary forecasts. Here's my logic.

One of the goals of AccuScore was to mathematically describe players using key stats that are better than some of your traditional stats. Here we'll focus on what Running Backs could potentially take off in '07 vs. those you need to be careful drafting. AccuScore doesn't think much of the stat: average yards per carry. Most starting RBs run for 4.0 to 5.0 yards per carry. Most people use "average" to describe the most common result. But did you know that only 20% of carries actually result in a run of 4, 5 or 6 yards? We all watch football enough to know that most carries (58%) are for 3 yards or less. The key for any RB to average 4+ yards is to break a long run of 8+ yards (~16.7% is league average).

Do you remember how that chop blocking O-Line in Denver was able to help Clinton Portis bust a long run in over 20% of his carries? This helped Portis average 5.5 yards per carry from '02-'03. When he went to Washington in 2004 this Long Run % (% of carries 8+ yards) plummeted to under 13% and Portis's YPC went down to 3.8.

While individual talent is related to Long Run %, it is often more a reflection of how good the offensive line is. LaDainian Tomlinson average 3.9 to 4.3 ypc from '04-05 but when rookie Marcus McNeil started dominating in '06, LT's Long Run % went up and he shattered records.

Draft day: the best day of the entire year. Ordinary dens are turned into high tech conference rooms rivaling NASA launch centers. Frenzied stacks of paper, laptops galore, and middle-aged men giddy with excitement. What could be better?

LaDainian Tomlinson (354.5 projected fantasy points!) is so vastly superior to every other fantasy player that my buddies and I have contemplated only two possibilities to save our league from utter domination: 1) Rigging the draft order so that our notoriously inept friend (the guy who continues to draft Brett Favre in the second round) surrounds LDT with less talent than the Raider's offense or 2) Taking LDT out of the game altogether. What? No LDT? Is that fantasy football blasphemy?

Okay, maybe that is a little too far.

But the biggest problem this year is not just that Tomlinson is an offensive juggernaut capable of single-handedly slaughtering teams; what makes Tomlinson so dominant this year is that every other "elite" back is waving red flags!

What is the difference between sports forecasting and handicapping? Based on our research and knowledge of the sports industry, we have found that there are a variety of differences. The following attempts to outline those differences and show that sports forecasting is not just for gamblers, but for everyone.

AccuScore is a sports forecasting company that forecasts all the games and all the players for sports fans around the world to use as valuable information. The forecasts are based on hard science, rigorous programming and data maintenance, as well as consistency in modeling. Handicapping starts with gut, and then leverages some science, computers or pencils, and finally systems to pick at most a handful of games. The difference is 10,000 game forecasts versus less than one thousand

Sometime in the next month, Barry Bonds will hit his 756th home run and pass Hank Aaron as the all time home run leader. It will be an eventful moment, one that we will all remember...for about 8 more years. The reason for this is simple: Alex Rodriguez. Bonds may be a lock to pass Hank Aaron, but he's just keeping the seat warm for A-Rod, the future home run champion. Consider the facts:



1. A-Rod has 492 homers at the time of this writing.

2. A-Rod is 31 years old and averages 44 homers per 162 games played.3. A-Rod will probably remain in the American League after this season, either with the Yankees or the Angels.



So what does this tell us?

First, let me apologize in advance to Julio Lugo. Hopefully the following few paragraphs don't cause too much trouble, but the data seems to indicate that he may have a problem avoiding temptation. I'm not talking about the temptation to leave Tampa Bay to play for a competitive ball club in Southern California. I'm not even talking about him leaving the Dodgers for a payday from the perennial powerhouse in Boston.