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May 11, 2006
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Alex Gordon may be starting 3B this year

The Kansas City Star is reporting that Alex Gordon will likely be the starting 3B unless as they out it there was a "stunning development". Royals GM Dayton Moore did not confirm the report although this time, unlike last season when he asserted that Gordon would start the year in AAA, he allowed that it was possible. Gordon hit .324 with 99 RBI and 28 homers in AA last season.

Baseball-Reference now provides neutral stat function

Ever wonderd what Ted Williams numbers would have looked like in the steroid era or Sandy Koufax's? Now you can get at least a rough idea since Baseball Reference now has a stat function that lets you neutralize the stats of hitters and pitchers. All you do is go to a players page and just above their stat lines is a link called neutralize stats. Select that and you will then get the option of picking a year, a league, and a team. The stats will then be adjusted to display an approximation for that year. The link below explains in detail how the adjustments are made and what is or is not accounted for in the translation of the stats.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/equiv_stats.shtml

Just for fun I put Ted Williams on the 2000 Rockies. He hit .393 for his career including over .400 every year from 1941-48, including a high of .458 - to go along witn an OBP of .605 and .831 SLG.
Categories (2): MLB, MLB Other

Chris Burke may benefit from Astro-Rockies trade

With W. Taveras gone to Colorado Burke may get regular time as the Astros CF this year. Burke hit 9HR, had 11SBs and hit .276 in 366 ABs last year. Regular time may make him a 20-20 threat. He's also shown some good progression in OBP (.200, .309, .347) over the last three years and SLG (.059, .368, .418). The first year stats are from a very small sample size but the last two years came in 318 and 366 respectively. That he'll keep his 2B eligibility is a nice bonus.

Brave may non-tender Giles

Word out of Atlanta is that Marcus Giles may be non-tenderd and become a free agent. Giles was once considerd one of the better 2Bs around but his power has declined and since he's arbitration eligible the Braves are likely to cut him loose rather than pay him. The Braves apparently tried to find a trade partner but so far have had no success. He'll likely find another starting job, although if its San Diego with his brother it may not be the best thing to renew his fantasy value.

Sowers Update

Jeremy Sowers won last night pushing his record to 6-3, with a 3.44 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. I've been skeptical of Sowers due to his rep as a finesse pitcher, a label reinforced by his low K rate 3.69 per 9IP. But despite the low Ks he's shown excellent control by only walking 14 guys in 70IP. I'd like it if he could dial up the K rate but I can't help but be impressed with the results so far, none of which are out of line with his minor league numbers. He's a guy who could help any fantasy team right now and he's got good keeper potential for next year.

Markakis hits 3 HRs

O's rookie OF Nick Markakis hit 3 HRs in last nights game against the Twins. He had a rough start to the year but begining in June began to hit and has gotten better every month: May OPS 667, June 803, July 999, and August 1150. For the year .306 Avg, 369OBP, and .466SLG.

Snelling back from DL

Oft injured prospect Chris Snelling was activated from the DL and started in RF for the Mariners today and yesterday. Probably not a target for guys in the hunt but those thinking about next year might stash him away.

An interesting article on Investing vs Speculating on talent

This is a good article that compares two approaches to managing a fantasy team.

One approach is an investors approach in which an owner balances the acqusition of certain players and the trading of others by seeking to balance the productive value of the player against risk and price. For example an owner acquires players who clearly have a mismatch between their intrinsic value (i.e how well they actually perform) and their percieved value by others (i.e what others will pay in salary, draft position, or trade value).

The other approach is a speculative approach in which the owner acquires players on the expectation that a higher return will result regardless of intrinsic value of the player. Think of this as the underperforming player who continues to be overhyped and his value over estimated. For example I'm sure everyone who has played fantasy sports long enough has seen a player that they knew was on the downside of thier career get bid up well beyond his real value. The speculative approach also drives the acquisition of the "hot hand" regardless of whether there is anything to support that anomaly (see: Chris Shelton 10HR month).

While an owner can have success with either approach especially in the short-term. The author argues that the investing approach has clear advantages over the long term.

Categories (2): MLB, Fantasy

Evaluating the Dodgers deadline trades

On the last day before the trade deadline passed the Dodgers made two significant trades. Acquiring Greg Maddux for Ceasar Izturis and then Julio Lugo for Joel Guzman and Sergio Pedroza. Let's look at the first of these trades. Dealing Izturis for Maddux is a good move. Izturis had been displaced by Furcal and simply couldn't hit enough to warrant being played at 3B. Moving him solved a problem and brought back a useful starter in Maddux who will be an immediate upgrade to the rotation. In addition Maddux is a free agent after this year so there's no long term burden. This is a good deal. Well done Ned.

The second trade of Lugo for Guzman and Pedroza. This was not a smart trade. Guzman is a monster prospect. Granted plenty of prospects flame out but they shouldn't be dealt unless there is really something to gain. So what did the Dodgers get? They got Lugo a good hitting middle infielder but one whom they will have for about two months. I've been looking around for contract information but as far as I can tell Lugo is a free agent after the year. So Colleti basically dealt Guzman and another prospect for a two month rental. Even this could be defensible if Lugo was the final piece to a deep run into the playoffs and perhaps a World Series run but lets be honest, about the only thing the Dodgers have done for themselves is improve their chances of winning the pathetic NL west. Win the NL pennant? Capture the series? I wish I could believe that but see no reason to think that is the case. On top of all that once Nomar and Kent return who goes to the bench? I guess Betemit is the odd man out but then I'm left asking why the hell he was acquired. This was a bad move plain and simple.

Betemit to Dodgers for Aybar and Baez

ESPN is reporting that the Dodgers have acquired Wilson Betemit for Danys Baez and Wily Aybar. Betemit will likely become the regular 3B and may see time at 2B and SS.

Sowers delivers second consecutive shutout

Jeremy Sowers went all nine for the second nconsecutive time and gave up no runs. His record now stands at 3-3 with a 3.98 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP and 15Ks. He's thrown over 40 innings and the lack of Ks could be cause for concern. Although he is getting results and showing great command of all his pitches.

Double Standard in LA?

The Dodgers lost their 8th game in a row yesterday dropping them to last place in the dismal NL West. The team has been hit hard by injury with Gagne out, Bill Mueller is likely done for his career, and JD Drew, Jeff Kent, Brett Tomko, Nomar Garciaparra, and Kenny Lofton making trips to the DL. The Dodgers have benefited from the emergence of a excellent corps of rookies but the teams lack of pitching depth and lately lack of offense has left the team in a tail spin. What I don't understand about this situation is the free pass Ned Colletti is getting. Last year when Depodesta faced an even worse rash of injuries he was attacked by the press and backstabbing members of the Dodger organization. Depodesta was eventually run out of town but now with his successor facing a similar situation we see no outcry. In fact we even see the rash of injuries given as a reason to take it easy. No I'm all for giving a guy a pass when factors out of his control hand him a setback but after seeing last years witch hunt its a little annoying to see his successor get a mulligan. Especially when he hasn't done anything other than make trades for middling starters and relievers who can't really help the team. I guess we can give him some credit for salvaging at least some salary from the Odalis Perez disaster but given that he basically had to pay the Royals in both cash and prospects I'm left wondering where the upside is. Its probably also in his favor that he has so far resisted trading some of his blue chip prospects for the likes of Greg Maddux. Who even if he pitched well might be just enough to get the Dodgers into the playoffs so they can lose in the first round. But then again we still have plenty of season to go and Ned could still empy the farm system and ultimately gain nothing.
Categories (2): MLB, MLB Other

Umpire Bias Effects Pitchers

This great article from talentedMrRoto.com and posted on CNNSI breaks down the tendencies of umpires in allowing K, BB and R per game. It gives some interesting examples of pitchers who have been up and down this year and notes that several of their good starts occured with high K and low BB guys calling the game and the bad one with guys who squeeze the zone.
Categories (2): MLB, Fantasy

Ray Durham on fire

Ray Durham has gone on a power binge lately. Today he hit his 15th HR. He has been hitting over .350 for the last three weeks and has hit 8 of his 15 homeruns during the span. You have to figure this will end sometime but it might not be too late to grab him and ride out the hot streak.

Wickman on the block

Rumors contiue to build that Bob Wickman will be moved by the trade deadline. Fausto Carmona appears the likely closer should that happen.
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