> If you drafted Lee Evans in your fantasy league, I'm sorry. Having him at WR when your QB is Trent Edwards is like having a Lamborghini in the driveway of a blind man.

> I'd say something about the first three quarters, but for the most part, they just didn't matter. If you like field goals, this was riveting. Otherwise, not so much.

> On back to back plays to start the fourth quarter, Browns RB James Harrison goes 72 yards on a sweep, then the Bills' Leodis McKelvin took the kickoff back 94 yards to immediately counter with a touchdown. This would all matter more if both of these teams didn't stink.

> The Browns like to send Brady Quinn on naked bootlegs, having done it twice tonight. The only trouble with this is that Quinn doesn't seem to understand about sliding or going out of bounds. It's OK, Brady, we won't think you are gay if you avoid contact! We're clearly going to think that from all of the other reasons you've given us!

> Boy, it didn't take long for Jamal Lewis to go back to being a spent force. The Browns get a lot more out of plays with Harrison than the nominal starter. Besides, Harrison's a lot less mouthy about people quitting, one suspects...

> Romeo Crennel really does have that Art Shell vibe going. Not a good thing for Browns Fan. Honestly, this is a team with talent, but you'd never know it, thanks to the coaching.

> The MNF chuckleheads tell us how Trent Edwards has a sarcastic list and hate for all of the other quarterbacks that were taken before him in his draft class.

Um, Trent? You do realize that you also, well, suck? Especially in this game, when you threw 3 picks in the first quarter, then spent the rest of the night throwing checkdowns rather than risking Pick Four?

> The Browns narrowly avoided making a very bad form of NFL history tonight, in that they almost lost after being up by 13 or more for the third straight week. As is, they needed a 56-yard field goal from kicker Phil Dawson (part of a 5-for-5 night for him), followed by a missed 45-yard field goal from Ryan Lindell, to win 29-27.

And... no one circles the drain like the Buffalo Bills!http://fivetooltool.blogspot.com - The Sports Blog That Loves You Back!

Today's list comes from my past 24 hours, which have been a lot less than fun. But like the noble Indian using every part of the buffalo, I've used the experience to produce a big bowl of fun. Or, well, something.http://fivetooltool.blogspot.com - The Sports Blog That Loves You Back!

The first tie in the NFL in six years, and nearly four hours of breathtakingly blah football. On some level, it's exactly what both teams deserved, since neither of them looked anything like a winner today, and the perfect ending to my weekend, which started with a disappointing turnout for poker, had the middle ground of the wife and kids getting explosively ill, and finished with that mess of a game. Some notes for the post-mortem...

> If you own Brian Westbrook in your fantasy league, I'm sorry. And if you're an Eagle fan, I'm even more sorry. Correll Buckhalter was the better back in every aspect of the game today, and since Andy Reid values loyalty over performance, it's not like we're going to see him get more touches. Add it up, and you have a team that has to put everything on its quarterback, and when he turns it over four times in a game... well, you're not going to win.

> Today's game, and the near certain playoff elimination that should follow just after Thanksgiving, will up the drumbeat for Kevin Kolb, especially since McNabb had time to throw for most of the day. I can't defend him very well after those many giveaways, but it hard to see how the back-up wins this game, either. When every short yardage play is a nightmare of uncertainty, that's not really something a quarterback change fixes. But I can see how some people just want to blow this team up and start from scratch.

> The Eagles defense did everything you could ask today, short of scoring itself. It sacked the quarterback 8 times, got a fumble recovery, held the opponent to 56 rushing yards, and only gave up a field goal on a first and goal at the one series after a fumble. They gave their offense 17 possessions today to score points, and held the opponent to 4 for 20 on third down. It's not on them.

> Of the four McNabb turnovers, three were legitimate; the fourth was a ball that bounced off Kevin Curtis's pads and stayed up for the pick. Scoring-wise, I kind of hate that all picks are charged to the quarterback, but independent of that is the fact that Curtis was awful today, despite the 7 for 64 numbers. He dropped a certain first down in the second half, just a ball that owned him on the numbers. They need him, especially in this era where there is no running game, to be a hell of a lot better than that.

> Sav Rocca was terrible in the fourth quarter and overtime today, with 36.2 yards on the day for an average. I'm not sure if it was the wind or overwork or an injury or simple incompetence, but what had been a strength all year stopped being one.

> In regards to the tie being better than a loss... well, I suppose, but the simple fact is that there's no way this team goes to the playoffs unless they are second in the NFC East, since the South has more than enough teams to take that position. Basically, if they want to make the playoffs, they can't lose again this year. And considering that they can't run the ball, can't stop the run against a good team, can't win at night, can't convert in short yardage...

Well, let's just say we're all going to have a lot of free time this winter. And a very strong need to draft a running back with a higher than expected pick...http://fivetooltool.blogspot.com - The Sports Blog That Loves You Back!

Today's link is probably going to make some in the audience wonder if I'm OK. The answer is yes, of course, no worries, and never take me seriously on a Friday morning. Just a side effect of commuting for over 16 hours a week; I've never really gotten used to it, and Friday is when it just all builds up.

Oh, and there's a screaming infant on my train this morning. At least it's not mine.

Anyway, in moments like this, I say embrace your inner Strindberg. Besides, in just 13 hours, I'll be playing poker. Mmmm, poker.

http://fivetooltool.blogspot.com - The Sports Blog That Loves You Back!

From the Brady Tragedy in Week One (and 12th place) to King Of The World as of this morning.

(And yes, I'm basking in the two-day moment, and know that just like Tupace, This Will End Badly.)

West Side!http://fivetooltool.blogspot.com - The Sports Blog That Loves You Back!

I got tonight's game, thanks to my proximity to the Jets media market. It was startlingly entertaining, unlike the next few weeks of NFLN work, which prominently features AFC West teams. Ye gads, this is a network that's just trying to hurt you, really.

I've seen way too much Jet Football this year, both from the market proximity and the fantasy league over-reliance on Thomas Jones, Jerricho Cotchery and Leon Washington. So here's the key points from a game that you probably didn't see...

> The Jets took a big early lead (24-6) on the stength of a Washington kickoff return and some good red zone work by Favre. The Patriots then got a last-second touchdown before the half, as they exploited Jabbar Gaffney against the Jets' weak nickel backs, but the odd thing was how the Jets kept refusing to spy Matt Cassel, who wound up running 8 times for 62 yards tonight to lead the Pats. Honestly, the Jets' failure to adjust for Cassel picking up easy first downs was kind of amazing. Eric Mangini might have won a big game tonight, but his team did it, not his coaching.

> In the second half, the Pats played error-ridden football to make their comeback a hell of a lot harder than it had to be. A Ben Watson fumble stopped one drive just outside of the red zone. An oversnap in the shotgun led to a 23-yard loss and a failed drive. Meanwhile, the Jets were going three and out, forgetting to run the ball, and in general, just behaving dramatically unlike a Patriots team.

> Finally, Cassel found Watson at the end of the third, got the surprisingly early 2-point conversion to Gaffney, then added the field goal to tie it. The Jets then responded with a long drive that was the kind of thing you thought they'd be doing all night: using their physical offensive line that is much, much better at run blocking, buttressed by the occasional short safe throws from Favre. After one questionable defensive holding call followed by a much more defensible one, Jones was finally able to punch it in from the one, giving me the fantasy football friendly evening that I needed to take over (temporary) first place in my league. Woo hoo! Go me! It's my birthday!

> After the kickoff, the Jets forced a three and out with a great Kris Jenkins sack, and things looked over... but the Pats held on a short third down, and wound up 65 yards away with 64 seconds left, and no time outs. Thanks to some truly regrettable prevent defense and some surprisingly competent two-minute drill work from Cassel, the game came down to a 4th and 1 from the 16 with eight seconds left.

Now, at this moment in the game, Randy Moss had two catches for six yards. He'd been open on a deep ball in the third that Cassel failed to keep on the field of play. He was, basically, playing one of those trademark Randy Moss Isn't Very Interested Games, because a good corner can do that to him, and the Jets have a very good corner in Darrelle Revis.

So, on the very last play of the game, after a defensive time out, the Jets put Ty Law on Moss instead.

Law, who was unemployed earlier in the month. Who was promptly beaten off the line by Moss, couldn't recover on a perfectly thrown out ball by Cassel, and then got to watch the booth review for a pointless few minutes before the catch was upheld. Tie ball game, and we went to overtime.

Now, honestly, Eric Mangini seems to be a tolerable coach. In two of his three years, he's managed to have his team play meaningful football. If he's had any input at all on the personnel decisions, that's also to the good; his defense is loads better than it was last year.

But seriously... you have a guy off the street covering what might be the best wideout in football, one on one, in a fourth down situation? That's not strategy, that's suicide. And that kind of unspeakable brain fart just isn't compatible with a serious title contender. Period.

> The Jets won the snap, and with the crowd giving the Pats' defense as much love as they are still capable of giving, they got a bad sack on Favre to force a 3rd and long. With all of us waiting for the Favre TAInt that would end things, the veteran instead took advantage of a non-existent three man rush and some terrible coverage on tight end Dustin Keller to convert it easily. Dramatically bad on the part of the home team.

> After that, Favre kept feeding Keller with safe throws, backed up by occasional Jones runs. A big completion to Coles put the Jets in field goal position, and after three last Jones carries to center the ball and get it closer, Jay Feely came out to add his signature drama on the event. A fluttering field goal snuck in past the left upright, and that was that.

So the Jets move to 7-3, the Pats fell to 6-4... and I'm really having a hard time imagining the Dolphins don't take the division. And BTW, this would never have happened in Bill Belichick was alive. (Oh, and finally, give the devil his due. Favre never made the big mistake that would have swung this game to the home team, and he made all of the throws he needed to win the game. Expect to hear this, oh, a million times in the next week...)http://fivetooltool.blogspot.com - The Sports Blog That Loves You Back!

Today's list is something that, in a better world where I become famous for blogging, would be read on the air on sports talk radio in the Philly area, so that this site could be besieged by mouth-breaking sports radio types. The first wave would be highly complimentary, because burying Andy Reid is right up there with smacking Bush supporters right now in terms of being on the side of public opinion.

Then, the next wave (which would happen after the Eagles win by two or three touchdowns against the Bengals) would roll on in to work me over as a big idiot since the world has changed. There would also be, of course, people who think that my opinion can't possibly be valid, because I must not (a) have played the game like they did, or (b) have to be gay.

Thank the stars no one really reads this thing, eh?http://fivetooltool.blogspot.com - The Sports Blog That Loves You Back!

According to Ad Age, 90% of women name their plumbing. Which is only slightly more astounding than this ad, really. (The Shooter Wife, for the record, calls it "Property of My Sovereign Patriarch and Master.")http://fivetooltool.blogspot.com - The Sports Blog That Loves You Back!

Before we start this week's column, a Public Service Announcement. Do not mess with wolves. They don't seem to understand English much. (And yes, I'm laughing at these morons. What were you expecting?) Wolf 1, Idiots 0.



Here's a fun little fact for all of you nature lovers out there. Scientists in Yellowstone National Park have observed that the elk that inhabit the park display no signs of fear when they are now confronted by wolves.

Given that wolves are Godless Killing Machines That Can Trick Rednecks, you'd think that elk would be scared of them, given the snarling and the steely blue eyes and the bloodthirsty pack dynamic and the biting and the rending of flesh and the hey Hey HEY! (Professor Frink, Signing Off.)

What has happened is that since wolves have not been present in significant numbers in the habitat for 60 years, the prey has adapted, as prey does, to the new environment. Without the routine application of Exceptionally Negative Stimuli, and the shared knowledge of seeing the wolves bring down the weak and the elderly, the elk have moved on to a post-wolf worldview.

My grandfather-in-law, who was a deer hunter for most of his highly numerous years on the planet, would say that if he was out for a walk without his rifle, deer would more or less walk up to him and ask him what time it was. This might, of course, simply be the words of a guy who never felt that he bagged enough trophy bucks, but that really didn't seem like the man's style. It may be that prey simply knows when it's not prey.

Now, on some level, one assumes that disregarding the offensive capabilities of predators won't work out terribly well for the Individual, Terrorist-Coddling Elk if they find themselves in a bad situation.

Or -- and this is the part where my surface-only knowledge makes things problematic -- maybe wolves just don't eat elk that much, given that elk are pretty damned big, and wolves probably find deer and smaller game a lot easier to manage. Besides, there's always rednecks to trick and snack on.

Sure, if you are betting on such things, take the wolves plus the points. And if you happen to be an elk, be social, dammit.

And now the magic pullback into Actual Sports... what does this have to do with NFL picks? Well, take a look at some of the longshot covers I went for last week.

RAMS at Jets - took the road dog to cover. They lost by 37.

Jags at LIONS - took the home dog to cover a 7-point spread. They lost by 20-plus.

CHIEFS at Chargers - took the road dog to cover a 15.5 point spread. They lost by a point.

NINERS at Cardinals - took the road dog to cover a 9.5 point spread. They lost by five, and were stopped on first and goal from the one with 40 seconds left.

In short, I have lost my fear of predators in this NFL environment. And as the 8-6 record for the week and 12 games over .500 record for the year shows, it's defensible, if not wildly profitable.

Wolves may exist -- Lord knows that Kerry Collins has done worse things to teammates than hump their legs, gnaw on decaying meat, and howl at the moon -- but we don't fear them. Spread covering wolves like the Patriots, Cowboys, Chargers and Packers have all come back to the pack, mangy and moth-eaten, content to gorge on I-AA roadkill.

Oh, and if you don't see yourself as prey when gambling on sports... you may already be in the process of getting devoured.

Final Editor's Note: A very good chunk of this was written on the Bum Bench at the Newark train station during my commute from hell. See if you can guess which ones.

And with that, on to the picks!

* * * * *

JETS at New England (-3)

Judgment Day for these two bitter AFC East rivals and incredibly flawed teams, and on a short week and inferior network to boot. The Jets come off a de facto bye against the "Oh Snap, Jim Haslett Is Our Coach? Time To Quit Again" Rams, the second time this year that they threw buckets of confetti at an NFC West team at home.

The Patriots played Bore Ball against the suddenly hapless Bills, and have turned into Old-School Denver East with their ability to take any RB off the street, delouse him, and turn him into a productive player. I'm pretty sure the Smells Like Poo guys who are flanking me on the train station bench where I am writing this are going to be next; they look like they've got some explosion. Yup, definite explosion; in passing out, he just kicked over his cup of coffee. Definite explosion Anyway, moving on...

This week, Ben Jarvis Sacco Vanzetti Smoot Hawley Alpha Tango Charlie Green Ellis gets to try his straight ahead luck against Kris Jenkins. That probably won't go well. So it will be left to Matt Cassel to get it done. That sound you just heard was Patriot Fan smacking himself in the forehead. (Well, OK, not really -- Patriot Fan has people to do that for him. But the flesh-on flesh sound is just the same, if lacking quite the same fat-amped snap.)

The entire game comes down to this: can the Jets score 20 points without giving up defensive touchdowns via the exposure of Brett Favre's TAInt? The single best thing that happened for them in the Rams game was watching Thomas Jones throw down a dominant yardage and touchdown game; it might have been just enough to convince even Eric Mangini, who usually plays this game tight anyway, to just try and win it with a 25 carries for 95 yards kind of day. With NFLN's embarrassing "Heroes" nonsense hyping of Saint Brett, it will be tough to have that kind of patience, but I'm thinking that because it's a road game and a short week, they'll keep it simple... especially now that the Patriots are down not just Rodney Harrison, but also Adelius Thomas.

Plus, the Pats' crowd is giving the home team no lift right now, and just seems to want to turn on Matt Cassel on first move. Jeeves, boo now! Louder, you halfwit! That fails to convey my rage at such inadequate footballery!

Jets 20, Patriots 16

'enver at ATLANTA (-5.5)

Second straight road game for the Broncos, who survived Cleveland and the near-total annihilation of their running back corps to get a shootout win over Brady Quinn. They face a methodical Atlanta team that just doesn't make mistakes, and a rookie QB (Matt Ryan) who is well on his way to Rookie of the Year status.

Falcon Fan should be very, very afraid: after a great deal of time resisting the urge to get on the Dirty Bird Bus, I'm taking up residence and snoring with my mouth open. (Not much on the dental work here in Newark.) Look for 200+ yards from Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood, Ryan to throw for another 200 (almost all of it from play action), and a clock-controlling win for the home team.

Falcons 31, Broncos 24

PHILADELPHIA at Cincinnati (+9.0)

Here's how enthused I am for my home town team and their chances for the rest of the year. Each week that I work up this picks column, I type in the games by hand from a list, checking for the line. I then work it around back and forth, filling in the holes and trying to give each game a good amount of consideration, before doing the drunken spell and grammar check that Blogfrica demands.

This game? I missed it on the list entirely. My eye saw it, but my hands refused to type it. And to think, if they'd only have beaten the Giants at home... I'd have been trying to work out how I could drive the 1,200 round-trip miles to Porkopolis to see them win the game that would have given them a first place tie in the division.

This week, the Eagles play a Bengal team that's fresh off their bye, has seen some recent friskiness out of Cedric Benson and Ryan Fitzpatrick, and has plus wideouts. It doesn't matter; they're horrible, and the Eagles beat horrible teams. Considering there is only one more horrible team on the schedule this year (Cleveland, Week 15), they can't afford to slip, and they won't. It's one of the things that Andy Reid is good at; they pound crud teams. And in the immortal words of Derrick Coleman, Whoop De Damn Do.

Eagles 34, Bengals 17

Chicago at GREEN BAY (NL)

Now or never time for the Pack, who picked a terrible time to go into offensive hibernation last week on the road in Minnesota. Despite doing next to nothing (and seriously, someone please wake up Greg Jennings, as he's killing me in two leagues), the Pack might be the most dangerous sub-.500 team in the conference, since they finally have Ryan Grant back to full power, and the defense keeps running back touchdowns off interceptions. I also remain convinced that they made the right move in going from Saint Brett to Aaron Rodgers, but dammit, it'd be nice if the latter stopped making that a point of debate.

It'd be nice if the Pack started to stop the run, but that shouldn't be impossible against the Bears, who hope to get Cowboy Kyle Orton back to save them from the Rextacy. Even if they do get their starter back there, I like the Pack to overcome the rust, throw for a ton of yards against a surprisingly bad Bears secondary, and win this one under the little-known NFL betting rule of Which Team Needs It More. (One last point to the Pack: can you please, pretty please, throw a ball or two to Grant? He was really good in space last year. And that whole Brandon Jacobs Is In, So We're Always Going To Throw A Screen Pass To Him, Because The Last Block He Threw Had A Vowel On it? It's getting just a *mite* predictable.)

Packers 27, Bears 20

Houston at INDIANAPOLIS (-8.5)

Full speed ahead for the Colts, who got the quality road win they desperately needed last week in Pittsburgh. They come home for their traditional punching bags, the Texans, who have shown a dramatic and unexpected failure on defense this year en route to their 3-5 record.

I really like the home team to put up a big number here, especially if Marvin "Fork" Harrison is concussed and unavailable. The cock-blocking that he's been given to Anthony Gonzalez and this offense is Warrick Dunn-esque. Only, you know, without any of the actual production.

For the Texans, Steve Slaton owners continue to rejoice in their awesomeness. Did I mention that I own Slaton in every single one of my leagues, and that I am, in all likelihood, much smarter than you? That's why I wrote this picks column in a train station, next to guys who smell like poo, while waiting for my wife to get here with my wallet. Trust me with your money!

Colts 34, Texans 24

NEW ORLEANS at Kansas City (+5.0)

Can the Chiefs cover the number against a Saints team that left their body parts and playoff chances in Atlanta? Probably not, given that Drew Brees is going to throw for 400 yards again, but the surprising Tyler Thigpen might do the same. In a game that will only be watched seriously by fantasy players and gamblers -- err, gamblers and more gamblers -- I like the Saints to score more points. I'm taking the over, and I don't even know what it is.

Saints 38, Chiefs 31

Oakland at MIAMI (-10.5)

Miami comes to this one from a suck-out cover kind of home win against the mostly terrible Seabags, who might have played their one good road game of the year in losing by two in Florida. The Raiders also come off a loss in which they might have outplayed their opponents at the line (the Panthers at home), generated turnovers and had the semblance of a running game. Um, they still lost by double digits, so if they avoid quitting in this one before halftime, I'll be amazed. In this game, I look for the Raiders to unravel with a quickness, and for the Fish to have all kinds of wacky running hijinks.

Dolphins 26, Raiders 10

BALTIMORE at NY Giants (-6.5)

UPSET SPECIAL! UPSET SPECIAL! UPSET SPECIAL! is what I'd be doing if this was a podcast, or if I was looking to one-up my fellow bums here in the train station. It's been fun, dear theoretical reader, but once the battery dies out, I'll be reduced to begging for coffee, watching my Blackberry die, and huddling under my London Review of Books for warmth.

Such a fragile connection to the top, this world is, and such a similar fall from grace awaits Our NFC East Overlords, who will be looking at a road club that looks a lot like them -- tough defense, quarterback that suddenly isn't making mistakes, multiple RBs that can punish. The only difference is that when the Ravens defense make plays, it also tends to score points. The Giants will not fear these wolves, and it will cost them. That, or I'm getting a contact methadone high here. Take the Ravens to cover; I actually think they are going to win. (Also, that the national media will regard it as a slip up game after a tough win in Philly, rather than the mouth v. fist problem that the Ravens can do from time to time.)

Ravens 24, Giants 23

Minnesota at TAMPA BAY (-3.5)

The Bucs are coming off a bye, can stop the run, and will be facing a fairly gassed road team that (and this is a first for the Bucs) could really be exploited in the return game. This one won't be pretty, and people who rely on Jeff Garcia for numbers usually come home very, very angry. But the Bucs will win anyway, even if Gus Frerotte has to throw all of their touchdown passes for them. He's prone to that, you know, because, well, he's Gus Frerotte.

Bucs 19, Vikings 9

Detroit at CAROLINA (-14)

It's hard to exaggerate just how bad Jake Delhomme was last week. Honestly, the Panthers might have been better off with Chris Weinke. Or Rodney Peete. That they won anyway, and will win again this week against a Lions team that is redefining what it means to be terrible, shouldn't hide you from the fact that unless the can run the ball, they aren't a very good football team, record be damned.

Of course, they may also just be bad on the road and good at home. Whatever. I've just written more words about this game than anyone else outside of Detroit or Charlotte will this week. Take your de facto bye and move on, Panthers.

Panthers 28, Lions 13

St. Louis at SAN FRANCISCO (-6.0)

Honestly, NFL? If these games have to be on the roster, please go back to bye weeks. Lots of them.

No one really needs to see the Rams play football again this year, especially when Stephen Jackson isn't involved, Torry Holt is rivaling Marvin Harrison for Sad Forkedness, Donnie Avery is good but not so good as to make everything else not matter, and the teams have had their fans wondering who they will get in the draft since the clock turned to October.

Um, give me the Niners, I guess. Shaun Hill sucks less than Marc Bulger. Feel free to put that on your resume, Shaun, along with "Biped" and "Vertebrate."

Niners 27, Rams 16

Arizona at Seattle (+3)

UPSET... stomach. A good friend of the blog is in the late stages of a big money suicide pool, and sweated out the end of last week's MNF error-a-thon with his pool life depending on Frank Gore getting tripped by the 2-yard-line in the final seconds.

The lesson, as always: Don't Gamble, Kids.

Unless you are, you know, *not* a pussy.

Seattle is counting on the possible return of Matt Hasselbeck (and will someone please, please, get Yahoo to list Seneca Wallace as a WR/QB so that I can have the sneakiest third WR play in the history of roto sports). They also get an extra day of preparation to surprise the road favorites after their MNF adventure. Can Arizona shake off its horrible road record and unfamiliarity with the high side of life? Well, I won't be shocked it they don't, but after watching Donovan McNabb tear this secondary apart, it's hard to imagine Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald and the rest not getting it done as well.

Cardinals 31, Seahawks 20

SAN DIEGO at Pittsburgh (-4.5)

For the conspiracy-minded Steeler Fans among us (and yes, they do exist), consider the fact that the Chargers don't have to play that early 1pm West Coast Death Start. Also consider that Willie Parker can't seem to get through a football game without falling apart at the seams, Ben Rothlesberger is being asked to carry a team to a top 2 seed in what might be an MVP season, and the defense is starting down a very good collection of wideouts, plus the best pass-catching tight end in the game.

Oh, and the Chargers are also coming off the bye, and are running out of time to win the AFC West. I mean, any week now, they're going go have to win a game. Maybe even two!

Luckily for the Iron City Men and Steely McBeam Lovers, the Chargers still employ Norv Turner, might have the worst pass rush in Christendom, and Phillip Rivers is a 'tard that throws bad picks in tight spots. It all adds up to a wildly entertaining game and Steeler win... but they won't cover. Yes, my prognostication mojo is so good, I can -- and will -- bet on the nickel.

Steelers 28, Chargers 24

Tennessee at Jacksonville (+3.0)

Can the Jaguars be the first team this year to stop the Titan Onslaught? Someone eventually will, but it won't be a team with a patchwork offensive line that is so badly coached, they actually lost a game to the Bengals. (Yeah, I know, someone lost to the Bengals. It's still hard to believe, isn't it?)

Look for the Titans to come back from their one-week hiatus of not being able to run the ball well, and for Maurice Jones-Drew to have one of those 10 carries for 16 yards days that make his fantasy owners more than a little peeved. One of these years, the Jags will replace Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell, right?

Finally, there's this. What more do the Titans have to do to be considered, you know, good? Doesn't an undefeated team deserve a little more spread love than three points here?

Titans 24, Jaguars 13

DALLAS at Washington (+2.0)

The Return Of Romo! Expect that storyline to get *just* a little notice in this SNF tilt, and by just, I mean only slightly fewer spins than Chevy Chase diving into a pool in his socks.

Oh, and here's a fun fact, while I'm talking about Things I Hate, given that this is a meeting of two of the Eagles' biggest rivals. Two years ago when I left the Bay Area, I left behind my DirecTV hookup. I called them, canceled the account, thanked them for the service, and That Was That. I actually liked their service, and thought about getting it again when I was set up in New Jersey, but the cable company sucked us in with a triple play deal, and the broadband mattered to us more than the programming. Besides, now that I'm in the middle ground of the Philly and New York metro areas (and I get my Eagles), I really didn't need Sunday Ticket anymore. No hard feelings though, and who knows, maybe I'd go back to them at some point...

Until six months later, when I see that DirecTV has started charging my credit card again. Two months worth, some serious coin. Multiple phone calls to the company got me no satisfaction, so I called my credit card company and got them to reject the charges.

This was two years and four collection agencies ago.

Now, some might complain about this, or have issue with their remarkable stupidity and malfeasance. Me? I'm *happy* to talk to the collection agents. I tell them all how wonderful it is that they're getting such quality work from these complete tools, how lovely it is that I'm taking their time, and how they can all sue me into the fires of Hell, and possibly corrupt my credit rating forever, for the sake of this. They aren't getting the money. Send me to debtor's prison. They aren't getting the money.

You see, I've become that most awful of all things, the happy malcontent. If anyone -- ever! -- asks me for my opinion of DirecTV, I'll tell them about this episode, and how they also rape puppies, eat kittens, and lure small children into unmarked vans with candy. After that, they abort the monstrous dog fetuses, feeding the unborn dog meat to the kidnapped children in a bizarre cult activity.

After that, it gets kind of graphic and tasteless. By all means, pass it on, and treat it as your own personal "Aristocrats" joke.

Anyhoo, that leads us to their wonderful, wonderful, heavy rotation idiocy ads, which just reminds me, EVERY SINGLE TIME THEY SHOW THEM, how much they need to fail in business. In life. Perhaps in the next life as well. And all for the sake of two months of theft charges.

The really nice thing is that, thanks to their ads, you all feel the same as me now. Pitchforks and torches, anyone?

Oh, right, the game. Clinton Portis is 50-50 to play right now, the Redskins aren't as good as they showed earlier in the year, Dallas has picked it up defensively recently and they just need it more. Expect a big bounce-back game from the Dallas offense and way too many Dallas Is Back headlines on Monday.

Cowboys 31, Redskins 20

CLEVELAND at Buffalo (-5.0)

The continued nightmare that is Prime Time All The Time for the Browns, who travel to Buffalo to face the reeling Bills. Had the Browns held off the Broncos in their last game, there would be all kinds of Brady Quinn Is God nonsense for you to slog through, but since that didn't happen, this is your basic toss-up. Give me the team with talent and an offensive line over the team that stopped playing in early October.

Browns 24, Bills 16

Last week: 8-6

Year to date: 74-62-4http://fivetooltool.blogspot.com - The Sports Blog That Loves You Back!

Today's link concerns the final table coverage from the Lemur of the World Series of Poker, and while I love these things... I can't help but wonder just how much damage this is going to do to the game in the long run. After all, everything the Lemur touches eventually turns to hell... whether it's hoops with nothing but dunks and threes, football with twerpish announcing teams and immense announcing teams, or baseball with, well, Joe Morgan and Chris Berman's home run derby calls.

Anyway, as the old joke goes... what's the difference between dogs and poker players?

Eventually, dogs stop whining.http://fivetooltool.blogspot.com - The Sports Blog That Loves You Back!

A thought while mulling over the wackiness that is the NFL world where the Arizona Football Cardinals have their terrible division wrapped up by Thanksgiving, just like the old Ram teams used to do, with the old Ram quarterback...

What would a terrible NFL season look like? I'm thinking that it would have five components.

1) A terrible (and more importantly, disappointing) season for your favorite team.

Well, mine is 0-3 in the division, can't stop the run (the single most nauseating way to lose on defense), and short of a remarkable turn of events, appears to be drawing dead for the playoffs. This, after seeming to be one of the best five teams in football on several occasions this year. Disappointing.

2) Coin-flip resolutions.

Last week in Minnesota, the Vikings held on for an important home win against the Packers when a 52-yard field goal drifted wide. This, after giving up touchdowns on special teams and on Gus Frerotte's TAInt.

Thanks to the Bears losing to the Titans, they are right in the division race.

Last night in Arizona, the Niners would have won had Frank Gore been able to remain upright after a defensive tackle grazed him with one hand. Instead, he tripped, and the Cardinals had a four-game lead in the division. All hail our new Cardinal Overlords!

3) Boring teams at the top.

Right now, we're staring right down the barrel of a Titans-Giants match. Over-under on punts: 20. Not since Tony Siragusa thugged his way to the Lombardi Trophy has a champion looked so unpalatable.

4) Fading ratings.

Nope. Blame/credit fantasy leagues.

5) Faltering attendance.

Not a problem unless you are Bengal Fan, and even if you are, you just use the Web to fill the place with Road Team's Fans. Sell the tickets and they will come.

So, is the NFL, for lack of a better term, recession-proof? It certainly seems so, though one wonder about the relative wisdom of defying basic economic laws. After all, (some? many? most?) people thought that the housing market was receession proof, that credit markets would never get to a point where they'd be allowed to fail, that the Republicans would hold Congress and the Presidency for decades...

What it speaks to, really, is the NFL's essential and incredible conservatism in limiting the access to their product. In a marketplace where, last year, every single team sold out every single game for a two-month period despite the skyrocketing cost of going to a game, the NFL played no more games, launched no new teams, and didn't launch any satellite leagues.

Imagine any other business that would have done the same.

Now, imagine that you are a shareholder of that business. You'd be bent at the lack of expansion, wouldn't you? Hell, you'd probably be worried about some competitor coming in and taking your overflow interest.http://fivetooltool.blogspot.com - The Sports Blog That Loves You Back!

I'd thank all of the men and women who have sacrificed so much for their country, but I don't have the day off. So I just don't have the time, OK?http://fivetooltool.blogspot.com - The Sports Blog That Loves You Back!

This Morning's Commute

1) Leave wallet at home, which means the Shooter Wife has to meet me in Newark so that I can get my PATH card and building ID to complete my commute. She, of course, has to get kids to school first, so I've just made my 100-minute take, oh... 200 minutes. If I'm lucky.

2) In transferring from the freeloaded train to the waiting area, have the mobile broadband card fail, which means that the Shooter Wife may have real issues finding me at the station, since she hasn't been here before and will be driving around in rush hour traffic with a 3-year-old. Her cell phone is also prone to failure.

3) Find the blind guy that needs to read his Bible out loud in ever-increasing amounts of volume in the lounge area. He, of course, activates the Japanese tourist on his cell phone, so they can have a Noise Off.

4) Have the laptop lose power any minute now, I'm sure.

5) After moving away from Mr. Bible and Friends, be surrounded by guys who smell like poo as I wait for the Shooter Wife. Newark's lovely in off-peak hours.

I'm sure the rest of my day will be just peachy. Hey veterans, are we friends again yet?http://fivetooltool.blogspot.com - The Sports Blog That Loves You Back!

I'm really hoping the evening goes better than the morning. Otherwise, it's not going well for the Shooter Kids...http://fivetooltool.blogspot.com - The Sports Blog That Loves You Back!

A wildly entertaining game in the desert tonight between two teams that really aren't going to have history books written about them. The Cardinals' first MNF win since beating Tom Landry (!) had the following quick notes...

> A 104 yard kickoff return from Allen Rossum opened this one, and Cardinal Fan had to know there were in a dogfight. Emphasis on dog.

> Most of the game, the Niners were unable to get pressure and Kurt Warner was exceptionally accurate. That they scored only 29 tells you just how sloppy this one was.

> With 11:30 left and the Niners clinging to a one point lead, Frank Gore dropped a sure first down pass in the flat. When your best player can't make the play to more or less ice it... well, there was More To Come. Let's just say Gore's not going to remember this game fondly.

> How you know that the Cardinals aren't really a contender, Clue #8006 -- being unable to run the ball at all against the Niners. At home. Even with Tim Hightower taking nearly all of the snaps. Sheesh.

> Yes, Vernon Davis caught a touchdown pass tonight... then cost his team a 15 yard penalty for removing his helmet while celebrating. It didn't cost the Niners anything, and Singletary laughed about it on the sidelines... but man alive, is this guy a moron.

> 45% of the time that he plays a game, Kurt Warner throws for over 300 yards. Your second place guy on that list is Dan Fouts, at 28%. Now, others will break on to this list as they meet a 100 game minimum, but still, ye gads. Mr. Warner has had some moments.

> The teams combined for 20 flags tonight for 162 yards. Yes, the refs matched the level of play of the teams.

> In the first half of this game, Shaun Hill did something I've never seen in on a football game before. On a 3rd and 11, the Niners called a quarterback draw to the left. Hill got popped a few yards short of the sticks, and had his helmet removed in the contact. He then fought through the tackle and dove, without protection and head first, for the first down.

Hill's not terribly gifted physically, and he cost his team the game tonight with some breathtaking mistakes -- two in the fourth quarter, both of them inept, and others that were called back on penalties. He doesn't have the confidence of his coordinator, the pass-wacky Mike Martz, and there's a good reason for that, in that his decision-making is bad, even for a Martz QB.

But on the strength of diving for a first with a bare head, he's going to draw an NFL paycheck for five years. He also gets every ounce of performance out of his ability with offside snap draws, the ability to get rid of the ball under huge pressure -- tonight at one point, 17 hurries, no sacks -- and just pure ballsiness. You don't really want him quarterbacking your team, but many teams employ a lot worse. Of such things are practice squads made... and no, JT O No Sullivan is *not* getting this job back.

> Tonight's Niners team were physical on defense despite facing a red-hot Kurt Warner in the second half, covered the 9.5 point spread with ease, had any number of chances to win, and fought hard. They might be the second best team in this division. And oh, my, what a horrible, horrible division it is...

> Twice in the second half of this game, the Cardinals were over-aggressive at the line, drawing ticky-tack five yard flags that wound up costing them defensive turnovers and touchdowns. It's a snakebitten franchise, folks.

> The last five minutes of this game simply defied description. Hill threw an inexcusable pick. The Cardinals couldn't get a first, and punted. After some of the worst prevent defense pass coverage you have ever seen, the Niners get the ball to the 1 with 40 seconds left, and inexplicably take 20 seconds to spike it. No, I'm serious.

The Niners then bounce Gore to the left, and on not enough contact to take a man down in two-hand touch, their star loses his balance before he can get in. The Niners then spike it with two seconds left, and the final play of the game is an Andy Reid-esque fullback dive from the three with Michael Robinson. The Cards stopped it and escaped with the win.

Honestly, this was wild fun, but I can't wait to wager against this Cardinals team in the playoffs... even though, with a four-game lead in their division, they will have the franchise's first home playoff game since 1949.

Yes, 1949. The franchise was in Chicago then.

(Oh, and having Warner and the balls-nasty Anquan Boldin in my points league got me to second overall tonight... after being last in Week 1 after The Brady Moment. What a ride.)http://fivetooltool.blogspot.com - The Sports Blog That Loves You Back!