Figuring out the essentials of the Heisman race is as much about knowing who can't win as who can.

As much as I love Phil Steele, handicapping the Heisman is not about throwing a list of 50 guys against a wall and seeing who sticks. In reality, there's probably only 10 players out there who have a real chance at winning in a given season.

That group usually consists of:

1. Established quarterbacks, running backs or multi-purpose athletes who play for traditional powers or teams in the national title race.

2. Currently unknown commodities from powerhouse schools who have yet to emerge on the scene.

As for who won't win, let's start by throwing out all the linebackers, defensive linemen, defensive backs, offensive tackles, fullbacks, tight ends and non-kick-or-punt-returning wide receivers right now, even though you are certain to, at some point, read an off-the-wall column about one of them having a shot at, or an argument for, the trophy.

They don't.

There is an award for linebackers--it's called a Butkus. There are a bunch of awards for the big uglies--the Outland, the Lombardi, the Nagurski and so on. If you are a fine defensive back, good for you. Go get the Thorpe. And no, I don't care if his coach really thinks he should win. He won't.

Yes, I know that gutty player from a little school going 12-0 is probably going to throw for 5 million yards. Too bad. Unless he really does throw for 5 million yards, he doesn't have a chance in hell of winning.

So Graham Harrell, James Laurinaitis, Armanti Edwards, Rey Maualuga, Travis Beckum, Max Hall, Eric Berry, Jermaine Gresham, George Selvie, Malcolm Jenkins, Taylor Mays, Myron Rolle and the rest of you fine players of similar position out there.....I'm sorry. Some of you may get some votes, but you are not legitimate Heisman candidates any more than Ron Paul is a legitimate Presidential candidate.

Now that this is established, we can move on to talking about who has a chance at actually winning the trophy. Remember, here at HP we look at the race as it is, not how it should be.

The media, like the military, is often guilty of re-fighting the last war.

And so we will see preseason top 10 lists and All-American teams for 2008 based almost solely on what happened in 2007.

It's no different with the Heisman Trophy. Since Archie Griffin became the only two-time winner in 1975, Billy Sims, Ty Detmer, Jason White, Matt Leinart and now Tim Tebow have all been seen as strong contenders to repeat.

In reality, none of them had a real shot, because as Heismandment No. 9 states, there will never be another two-time winner.

There are many reasons why a Heisman winner can't repeat. For starters, imagine how hard it is for a player to have ONE Heisman-worthy season. But to have back-to-back Heisman-worthy seasons? Forget about it! Furthermore, once such a season is accomplished, it must also be perceived as more worthy than all the other candidates in the running. In essence, everything has to fall perfectly into place for a player to win the Heisman…once. For things to fall perfectly into place twice is highly unlikely.

And so we come to the very special case of Mr. Tim Tebow, the only underclassman to win the award. The circumstances that brought about the breaking of Heismandment No. 2 were rare indeed: Not only did Tebow put up one of the most amazing statistical seasons in college football history, but he did it while every other major candidate magically flubbed things along the way, be it individually or team-wise. When the dust settled, there were no upper class quarterbacks or running backs from traditional Heisman powers left standing. Tebow was a rare specimen as a true sophomore, complete with an already-built-up cult following. He was the fresh-faced quarterback of a sexy offense who played for an elite program in the nation's toughest conference.

These, I posit, are circumstances that will not soon be replicated. While Tebow was the exception to Heismandment No. 2, he will not be one to Heismandment No. 9.

The reasons are fairly simple. Besides the remote likelihood of the aformentioned circumstances repeating, keep in mind that Tebow's biggest opponent in the race for the 2008 Heisman will be himself. He will be running not only against his peers, but the legacy of his incredible 2007 performance. If his stats do not compare to his sophomore season, then it will be hard to avoid the perception that he underachieved.

Additionally, there could be structural changes to Florida's offense that will prevent Tebow from piling up such huge numbers, especially on the ground. By this I mean that there is a chance that the Gators will actually have a legitimate tailback, be it Emmanuel Moody, Chris Rainey or Mon Williams. Throw in the increased Heisman attention that is sure to descend upon Percy Harvin and, once again, the obstacles will be there for Tebow. On top of all that, he will be challenged to stay healthy once again given his reckless style.

WIth all that said, you then have to look at the candidates out there who can also make a legitimate case. Chris Wells is a supremely talented back who will be playing for a top five, traditional Heisman power. He's coming off a fine season and has a chance to put up big numbers in several marquee matchups. Tebow can have another fine year, but it may not matter if Wells–HP's current front runner–has the kind of season of which he is capable. Then there is a slew of candidates with outstanding name recognition and credentials: Chase Daniel of Missouri, Pat White of West Virginia, Colt McCoy of Texas and Harvin, plus a healthy group of legitimate darkhorses.

Finally, there is the overexposure factor, the Tebow Fatigue, that will set in at some point. Tebow is one of the most popular, larger-than-life Heisman winners in recent times. He has spent the offseason traveling the globe. He's got a great Q rating. But too much Tebow on television and in the news will cause the voters to turn elsewhere. It's a natural reflex. There is also the stinginess factor to take into account, as voters will look for every reason NOT to pick Tebow–last year, they ran out of reasons when no other player stepped up–and most Heismans voter will be reluctant to grant a second trophy unless the circumstance overwhelmingly calls for it.

In the end, I do believe Tebow is the best player in college football. He's a physical phenom who could very well end up doing something far more meaningful than winning two Heismans–that is, he could lead the Gators to their second BCS title in three years. But as good as he is and as good as his season will be–and believe me, he's a lock to finish in the top three of the vote barring injury–the odds of him joining Archie Griffin are slim and none.

Darren McFadden is not going to win the Heisman. He will likely be the runner up for the second time, joining Charlie Justice of North Carolina and Glenn Davis of Army as the only two players to accomplish that feat.

Barring a performance-for-the-ages by Chase Daniel in a win against Oklahoma on Saturday, this trophy is going to go to Tim Tebow by a solid margin.

There are six regions in the Heisman voting: Far West, Mid-Atlantic, Mid-West, North-East, South, Southwest.

The states are divided into the six sections accordingly:

Far West: AZ, CA, HI, ID, MT, ND, NV, OR, SD, UT, WA, WY

Mid Atlantic: DC, DE, MD, NC, NJ, PA, SC, VA, WV

Mid West: IA, IL, IN, MI, MN, OH, WI

North East: CT, MA, ME, NH, NYC, NY, RI, VT

South: AL, FL, GA, KY, LA, MS, TN

Southwest: AR, CO, KS, MO, NE, NM, OK, TX

How I think the voting for each section will unfold.

Who would have thought that Saturday's game between Kansas and Missouri would be so vital to the national title race, not to mention the Heisman?

The team implications are obvious. The winner will go on to the Big 12 championship tilt and will probably have a shot to earn a slot in the BCS title game.

But what does the game mean for the Heisman?

No matter what, this game will be key in determining the next Heisman winner. It's simple: If Kansas wins, the trophy is Tebow's. If Missouri wins behind a knock-em-dead game by Chase Daniel, then the Tiger quarterback still has a chance.

The 12th Heismanpundit.com Straw Poll of the 2007 college football season has been tallied and, with just two weeks to go before the final ballots are due, the nine Heisman-voting members of the college football media who comprise the poll have selected Florida sophomore quarterback Tim Tebow as the strong favorite to win this year's Heisman Trophy. Tebow (26 points) grabbed eight of the nine first-place votes to replace Oregon quarterback Dennis Dixon atop the poll.

I believe there is a stat being circulated out there regarding the number of Heisman winners with three or more losses. The stat I am seeing is that 13 of the 72 Heisman winners played on teams that had three or more losses. That's nearly 20 per cent of Heisman winners, says the note. But this note, for the purposes of looking at the coming Heisman vote, is completely invalid.

It is slowly dawning on the college football world that Tim Tebow is probably going to win this year's Heisman Trophy.

Despite all the chaos--or maybe because of it all--this has been one of the most interesting and memorable Heisman races in memory. The payoff will be historic as, after all the twists and turns, we're about to see a sophomore win it. Tebow is set to go down with Archie Griffin in Heisman lore. That's good for the Heisman and good for college football.

With Dennis Dixon out for the rest of the season with a knee injury, whither the Heisman race? Will it continue to resemble the TV show Survivor?

First off, I can't recall the last time a Heisman front runner has been knocked out of a race this late in a season. In 1976, Ricky Bell missed some games in the middle and late parts of the season, but it is likely that Tony Dorsett was going to win it that year anyway. The injury to Dixon will have a profound effect on this year's Heisman as he was well on his way to winning the trophy. Unless he pulls a Willis Reed, that will not happen....

That is the salient issue at this point in the Heisman race.

The front runner is either Arkansas running back Darren McFadden or USC quarterback John David Booty.

Yes, I know, the vast majority of college players chose McFadden as the front runner in a recent survey, but those guys don't vote for the Heisman.

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That is one of the key questions in the Heisman race. We know that John David Booty probably has to lead USC to an undefeated regular season. Steve Slaton might need 2,000 yards rushing. Colt Brennan? Bench pressing the world would help him top what he did last year.

But what about Arkansas running back Darren McFadden?

This is a somewhat subjective list of the most innovative offenses in college football. It takes into account scheme, the soundness of the system, style of play and play calling. These offenses run unique, unpredictable attacks and runs them well.

These rankings are compiled from (1) average recruiting rank based on Phil Steele's aggregate ratings over the last five years and (2) number of players on a roster rated four-stars or better by Rivals.com. (3) I also listed the relatively untouted players (3-stars by Rivals.com or less) who have emerged as major contributors at the schools.

It's not a perfect system, but it since all the schools are given the same measuring stick, we come up with a good idea of which program has the most talent on its roster heading into this season.

We've already looked at the football players with the fastest track times. Now, here's a look at who's fastest just based on observing their play on the field, without taking track times into consideration.

These guys are rarely, if ever, caught from behind.