I know that I am not the first person to recognize this, Grant Wahl and the other guys who actually get paid to spend time writing about basketball (ah to be so lucky) seem to have noticed that UNC isn't the dominant force that was originally thought. But I wonder - and post this to see the thoughts of others - Why does UNC keep having to squeak out W's?
A breakdown of UNC's schedule reveals that it isn't the juggernaut of top notch teams that most 'heels fans would have you believe. They have only played 1 team that is ranked in the top 25 (then #19 Clemson) and beyond that their best competition has been several "mid-majors" including BYU, Nevada, and Valpo and the horrendously underperforming Ohio State and Kentucky.
A recent yardbarker post from a 'heel fan commented that Duke hadn't faced any tough competition and would soon get theirs against UNC on Feb. 6th. However if you look at Duke's schedule they've played three teams ranked in the top 25 (all on neutral courts) in Marquette, Wisconsin, and Pitt. Toss in the fact that Wisconsin is much better than initially thought and Pitt was fully healthy for the majority of the Duke game and that's a pretty impressive schedule. In fact take a look at ESPN.com's bracketology report and Duke has faced 2 teams pegged as 3 seeds (Marquette/Wisconsin) and rising, and one 5 seed (rising Pitt). UNC has faced only one team (Clemson) who is a 6 seed and falling.
Obscure statistical info and "speculation" aside, UNC doesn't seem to be able to defend anybody. Even lowly Georgia Tech took them down to the wire last night - with the help of a healthy free throw advantage, UNC barely won. Duke on the other hand has been completely solid on the defensive end holding most teams to below 70 points.
So how are these teams going to match up?
Duke will have obvious problems with Psycho-T underneath as they have for the past three years. I have come to live with the fact that the dude is going to get 15 free throws a game (and make 13 of them) and will bully his way to a double double. There really isn't much you can do to stop him. I predict that Duke will put McClure/L. Thomas on him throughout and run help defense from G. Henderson and D. Nelson. The crazy thing is that G. Tech showed that you don't really need to stop Hansbrough to beat the 'heels. He pulled 27/12 last night and they still shouldn't have won that game (damn you
Zach Peacock).
Duke can allow him to have his 20/10 as long as they hassle T. Lawson and W. Elliington into having a bad night. In fact just taking one of these guys off their game should be enough. Now this is easier said than done but I think that D. Nelson can totally shut down Ellington (feel free to argue but I am 100% confident on this one). Lawson is more difficult as Duke has notoriously been bad at defending quick PGs but I think that
Nolan Smith might be able to contain him on the drive and his outside shot isn't as much of a threat as other UNC guards of recent memory (Felton, W. Miller, B. Frasor).
At the end of the day Duke is a far better defensive team than Carolina is. And this years Duke team is a far better offensive team than last year and will certainly be the best team that UNC will have faced come Feb 6th. I'm hoping that Duke will get to end UNCs ridiculous "streak" so that I don't have to hear Mike Patrick drone on about the best start in 20 years... Come on UNC - play someone difficult already!