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Honest Answers to the Royals Mailbag Questions

Beat writer Dick Kaegal's mailbag column on the KCRoyals.com website is nothing more than a forum for Kaegal to attempt to put a positive spin on what is going on with the Royals. So, in the interest of not glossing over what the Royals are doing, Rounding Third and Heading Home presents honest answers to the recent mailbag questions.

Why is there so much negative talk about Kansas City acquiring Mike Jacobs? The move makes sense. Fine, Jacobs' on-base percentage is low, but against right-handers (where KC's record was below-average) his numbers are not terrible (.315 OBP with 25 homers). Where are you going to find that type of production for $3 million? -- Steven A., Toms River, N.J.

Steven, even the harshest critics of the trade admit that Jacobs will add homerun power to the Royals lineup. But homeruns alone do not win games. In your email you mention the Royals poor performance against right-handed pitching. In 2008 the Royals .260 average was 13 out of 14 American League teams. But as poor as the Royals were against right-handed pitching in 2008 Jacobs was worse. He hit .257 against righties. You also mention Jacobs .315 OBP against right-handers as "not terrible." You are wrong Steven, a .315 OBP is terrible. In 2008 the Oakland A's had an OBP of .318 which was last in the American League.

With the White Sox considering trading Jermaine Dye, do you see the Royals making a trade for him? -- Anthony, Kansas City

To be honest, Anthony, I have no idea why Kaegal devoted space to your question. Former GM Allard Baird made one of the worst trades in baseball history when he traded Jermaine Dye for Neifi Perez. But that is water under the bridge and Jermaine Dye is not coming back to the Royals.

With Zack Greinke and Gil Meche at the top of the rotation, who will the Nos. 3, 4 and 5 guys be? -- Ryan V., Lee's Summit, Mo.

Bad news Ryan, the back end of the Royals pitching rotation is horrible. Greinke and Meche give the Royals a respectable 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation. But after Greinke and Meche it becomes scary for Kansas City. It is now obvious Brian Bannister's 2007 season was a fluke. The Royals are courting disaster by continuing to believe Bannister has a chance to be even a serviceable Major League pitcher. Davies had some bright spots in 2008 but I don't have a lot of faith he is ever going to be a starting pitcher to be counted on. Luke Hochevar is still young and and has shown enough positives that I believe he could still develop into a Major League pitcher. As things stand now the Royals should pencil him into the #3 spot in 2009 rotation. But if the Royals are going to improve in 2009 they are going to have to find replacements for Bannister and Davies.

Despite his excellent hitting numbers this past year, everything I'm reading says Alberto Callaspo has no chance at being an everyday player. What's your take on his future? -- Drew E., Albany, N.Y.

Drew, I am concerned about what I am reading about Callaspo's role with the Royals in 2009. Alberto Callaspo is exactly the type of player the Royals should be playing everyday. He is not a superstar hitter or a Gold Glove infielder but he is solid in all areas of the game. Callaspo is young and inexpensive and it would be to the Royals advantage to use the 2009 season to see if he could be their everyday second baseman. But Dayton Moore seems intent on finding a veteran middle infielder for 2009. Doesn't make any sense for Moore to do that with a guy like Callaspo already in the organization. But Moore did trade for Mike Jacobs even though Ryan Shealy and Kila Ka'aihue were already part of the Royals organization so I'm not holding out much hope Callaspo will be anymore than a utility player for the Royals in 2009.

What the Royals Should Learn from the Phillies

It is now the hot-stove season for Major League Baseball clubs. During the next several weeks teams will sign free agents and make trades in an effort to improve. It is also the time of year for Royals fans to begin singing the small market blues, whining to anyone that will listen that because of their small market limitations there is no way they can compete with teams like the Yankees, Red Sox and Angels. These folks need to stop crying because the 2008 Phillies proved that a team can build a World Series championship team without throwing big money at free agents.

The following table shows how the 2008 World Series championship team was assembled..........................

Chris De Luca is a Moron!

When I started writing this blog my goal was to express my view of sports in a straight forward, intelligent fashion. I didn't want to be a an overly emotional blogger that constantly rambled and complained. But I am going to deviate from that style today because of something I read about the 2008 NL Cy Young Award. San Francisco Giants pitcher Tim Lincecum was the runaway winner of the award, being listed first on 23 of the 32 of the ballots cast by members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America. Brandon Webb of the Arizona Diamondbacks was second in the voting and Johan Santana of the New York Mets was third. Arguments can be made that either Webb or Santana were the best pitcher in the NL but there is no argument that Lincecum, Webb, and Santana were the three best pitchers in the National League in 2008. (I don't include CC Sabathia because he was not in the NL for the full season).

This brings us to Chicago Sun-Times writer Chris De Luca who didn't put Lincecum anywhere on his ballot. He listed Brandon Webb first, Brad Lidge second, and Johan Santana third. As I said earlier, a case can be made for Webb but it is beyond understanding how De Luca could leave Lincecum completely off his ballot. In an interview with San Francisco Chronicle writer John Shay, De Luca defended his ballot by saying:

"I thought Webb's victories (22) stood out to me more than anything, and Lincecum didn't have the victories. Twenty victories was a big deal. We had a stretch there where no one was hitting 20."

Saying that Webb deserved the award over Lincecum because he was the winning pitcher in more games shows that De Luca has absolutely no clue on how to evaluate the performance of a baseball player. In the same number of innings pitched as Webb, Lincecum allowed fewer homeruns, had more strikeouts, and had a lower ERA and WHIP. The only reson Webb won 22 games to Lincecum's 18 is because the Diamondbacks were a significantly better team than the Giants. I can't imagine any baseball writer not understanding the win statistic alone is not a meaningful tool in evaluating a pitcher's ability or accomplishments. But Chris De Luca demonstrated that understanding the game of baseball is not a requirement for being a member of the Baseball Writers' Association of America.

Royals GM Moore's acquisition of Jacobs puzzling

Kansas City Star sports writer Joe Posnanski weighs in with his few of the Jacobs trade. Good job Joe!

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Royals general manager Dayton Moore was asked a couple of interesting questions the other day. He was asked why, when the Royals desperately need players who can get on base, he traded for a slugging first baseman named Mike Jacobs, who cannot.

Moore asked a couple of questions in return.

He asked: "Should we do nothing because his on-base percentage is not what we want? Should we do nothing even though our coaches think they can help this guy improve and when we know this guy is a hard worker?"

These are interesting questions. My answers would be: Yes and also yes.

We'll get to those answers in just a minute, but first: I think Dayton Moore is doing a terrific job........

Why Trade Matt Holliday

Every baseball writer from Tim Kirkjian to Tracy Ringolsby is reporting the Colorado Rockies are going to trade left fielder Matt Holliday this winter. Even though Colorado would get a fine return of prospects from trading Holliday, it would be a foolish trade for Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd to make. The NL West is a winnable division for the Rockies in 2009 and not having Holliday in the middle of the lineup hurts the Rockies chances. If things do not work out and the Rockies are not in contention Holliday could always be moved mid season. Colorado could also keep Holliday and take the compensation draft picks when he moves on at the end of the 2009 season. The Rockies have a realistic chance to contend in 2009 and they should take advantage of that.

The Rockies do have some weak areas and O'Dowd is going to have to make some moves to shore these up. The player the Rockies should be looking to move is 3B Garrett Atkins. Atkins is a power bat and he is not eligible to file for free agency until after the 2010 season. This should make him appealing to several Major League teams. The Rockies can afford to trade Atkins because they have Ian Stewart to step in and fill Atkins position. Moving Atkins could return a starting pitcher or free up salary to go shopping for one on the free agent market.

There are some teams like the Kansas City Royals that should look at 2009 as a building year and plan their off season moves with a focus on the future. The Rockies are not in that position. With the right off season moves they could enter 2009 as the favorites to win the NL West. Dan O'Dowd and the Rockies front office needs to realize they are not the Royals and add the pieces that will put the Rockies into the playoffs for the second time in the last three years.

Thoughts on the BCS

One of the biggest criticisms of the BCS system is that a championship should be decided on the field and not in the polls and computer rankings. In a recent column ESPN.com writer Ivan Maisell makes the point the college football champion is decided on the field. In response to an email complaining that Florida and USC are currently playing better than anyone and it is unfair they will not have an opportunity to play for the National Championship Maisell responses:

"I happen to agree with this reader that the Gators and the Trojans are playing better than just about anybody else right now. The reader suggested Florida and USC ought to be able to decide it -- all together now -- on the field."

"Back up a minute. Why aren't Florida and USC at the top right now? Each of them lost a game. Where did they lose it? In the polls? The computers? No, both of them lost on the field. Florida lost at home to an Ole Miss team that is 5-4. USC lost on the road to an Oregon State team that is 5-3. Didn't that prove something?"

In these two paragraphs Maisell makes a very good point. Polls and computers are not the reason that Florida and USC or Texas and Oklahoma face huge hurdles if they are going to play for the title. The reason Penn State, Alabama, and Texas Tech sit on top of the rankings is because those teams have taken care of business on the field. Texas has no one but itself to blame for losing to Texas Tech. Ditto for USC at Oregon State and Oklahoma against Texas. The BCS is far from a perfect system but to claim the national title is subjective and not decided on the field is wrong.

There is no doubt the BCS is flawed. Some teams play more difficult schedules than others and some conferences do not have championship games. Only a fan with blind loyalty would not admit the Big XII and SEC are loaded while the PAC 10, Big X, ACC, and Big East are weak. But that doesn't take away from the fact that when the season starts each team controls its own destiny. Win games and be in a position to play for the title.

Ron Prince Out at Kansas State

by Kevin M.

According to ESPN.com, Kansas State head football coach Ron Prince will not return to coach the 'Cats in 2009. Prince leaving creates a good news/bad news situation. The good news is Prince is gone, something Rounding Third and Heading Home suggested several days ago. It has been obvious for sometime that Prince is in over his head trying to be a head coach of a Big XII football team. During Prince's tenure Kansas State showed few signs of progress and continued to be embarrassed in key conferences games. Kansas State's recent football history is one of being a conference champion, nationally ranked, and playing in top tier bowl games. Ron Prince never demonstrated that he was capable of maintaining the program at this high level.

The bad news is Athletic Director Robert Krause is going to be responsible for hiring Prince's successor. Wildcat fans should remember that it was Robert Krause that extended Prince's contract last August. It does not reflect well on Krause's judgment that he believed it necessary to fire a head coach a few months after giving him an extension. The future of Kansas State football is hanging in the balance. The next football coach is going to have to undo the damage done by Ron Prince and connect with the tradition and success of the Bill Snyder era. If Krause makes a mistake and hires the wrong coach it could take years for KSU football to recover.

There's no quick-fix solution to K-State's problems

By JASON WHITLOCK

The Kansas City Star

LAWRENCE | The problem for Kansas State football fans is that there is no easy fix. Any coach itching to be first in line to replace Ron Prince is probably desperate, driven solely by money, ill-suited and unqualified to turn around a program in free fall.

Dick Curl, please pick up the purple courtesy phone. It's Tim Fitzgerald and the posters at gopowercat.com on the line, and they want to offer you the deal of a lifetime!

OK, I'm joking about Curl, the Chiefs' quarterbacks coach and Herm Edwards' soulmate. With an offer of more than a million dollars, the Wildcats might be able to lure a Prince replacement with a slightly better rA(c)sumA(c) than Father Time's.

But I wouldn't bet on it.

If you're a rational K-Stater who had the misfortune of sitting through Saturday's Sunflower Showdown at Memorial Stadium, you recognize the enormous problem Kansas State's next coach will inherit........

Ron Prince Needs to Go!

Going to take a break from the baseball hot stove discussion and talk about college football. The Kansas State Wildcats' 52 - 21 loss to the Kansas Jayhawks today should convince the administration at Kansas State University that head football coach Ron Prince should be fired. This was another embarrassing Big XII Conference loss and 100% of the blame for the continued failures of the football team rests on the shoulders of Ron Prince. I do not know Prince's contract status but something must be done to send him away or the once proud football program will sink to the depths not seen in Manhattan since before Bill Snyder's arrival.

Ron Prince coached teams are 3-12 against Big XII opponents, 3-8 against the Big XII North, 3-11 in road games, and 0-6 against Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska. If there are Prince supporters they might point to the 'Cats wins against Texas, but two good wins do not make a good program. Clearly Kansas State football is struggling and a change needs to be made.

Reaction to the Mike Jacobs Trade

Since I have already expressed my opinion of this trade I thought I would use this entry to post what others are saying about the move.

Respected Baseball Prospectus writer Rany Jazayerli wrote the following on his blog before the trade was announced:

"But let me be clear about this: trading for Mike Jacobs is a terrible idea."

"Jacobs wasn't even all that good in 2008. He certainly had his uses; he hit 32 homers in just 141 games, and slugged .514 for the Marlins. But he drew just 36 walks, and his OBP was .299. Two-ninety-nine."

"The mere fact that Moore is talking to the Marlins about Jacobs tells me he still doesn't get it. He doesn't get that what really ails his offense isn't the lack of power, it's the lack of walks."

"There were 29 players this season who batted at least 300 times and played at least half their games at first base. Only two of them had a lower OBP than Ross Gload's .317. One was John Bowker, rookie first baseman for the Giants, who had a .300 OBP. The other, with the lowest OBP of any first baseman in the game, was Jacobs. That's right: Moore has managed to find a first baseman that actually reached base less often than Ross Gload. And he's willing to give up talent to get him."

The Miami Herald Newspaper was not complimentary in describing Jacobs.

"...the former catcher [Jacobs] was a defensive liability and had a low on-base percentage."

The Kansas City Star's Upon Further Review blog was not overly critical of the trade, but the writers did point out interesting facts relating to the trade:

"Jacobs and Jose Guillen posted two of the 10-lowest on-base percentages among all qualifying hitters in big-league baseball during the 2008 season. Now they are likely to be paired back-to-back in the Royals' batting order."

"...as I've written many times, the most typical age for a hitter to have his career season is 27. Prior to last season, Jacobs hit 20 and 17 homers for the Marlins in a similar number of plate appearances. So there is a good chance that Mike Jacobs is never going to threaten the 30 home-run mark again."

Ted Carlson, who writes a very good blog for Rototimes.com didn't see Dayton Moore's rational for making the trade:

"But I fail to see this as a necessary upgrade for the Royals. It seems to create more headaches than anything else, and I'm already shuddering at the thought of the club trying to slot Jacobs into the fourth spot. You just know they're going to try it. And Jacobs is going to stink as a No. 4 hitter in the AL, just as he stunk when he tried to be the No. 4 hitter for the Marlins this past year."

The final word on the Royals' ridiculous move comes from fantasy baseball website Rotoworld.com:

"The Royals' finished with a .320 team OBP that ranked 27th in the majors last season, and Dayton Moore's answer to that problem is to pick up a first baseman who finished at .299. Jacobs did hit 32 homers, but he's a 28-year-old with a career .262/.318/.498 line and he's a below average defender at first base."

There is not much to like about this trade and Royals fans can only hope that Dayton Moore does not make anymore senseless moves this off season.

Congratulations to J.C Romero and the Philadelphia Phillies  

One of the most enjoyable aspects of being a fan of the Salt Lake Bees is watching players move on to success in the Major Leagues. Salt Lake baseball fans have been fortunate to watch many good players cut their teeth here before establishing themselves as solid Major Leaguers. David Ortiz, Torii Hunter, John Lackey, and Chone Figgins are a few of the players that fans in Utah have had the pleasure to watch. But of all the Salt Lake players that I have had the opportunity to watch and get to know Phillies reliever J.C. Romero is my all time favorite. It was because of Romero that I was rooting for the Phillies to win the World Series.

Romero made his first appearance for Salt Lake in 1999. At that time my 11 year old son and I attended almost every home game. We would sit on the front row by the bullpen which gave us an opportunity to talk to the pitchers. Game after game J.C. was outgoing and friendly toward my son and he quickly become my son's favorite player. It was very special to an 11 year old boy to feel like he was friends with a professional ball player. The following year Romero started the season with the Twins but was sent back to Salt Lake. My son was excited to have his favorite player coming back to town but I was worried he was setting himself up for disappointment. I explained to him the previous season was a long time ago and that Romero might not even remember him. As it turned out my worries were unfounded. Romero made a point to talk to my son and it was clear that J.C. remembered my son. From that moment I've always rooted for J.C. Romero.

Romero was outstanding for the Phillies in the 2009 post-season. He did not give up a run in 7.1 innings, striking out 4 without walking a hitter. He was the winning pitcher in 2 World Series games. The ultimate goal of every Major League player is to play on a World Series winner. J.C. Romero has now accomplished that goal and in the process proving that truly good guys can succeed in sports. Congratulations to J.C. and the rest of the Phillies.

A Lesson To Learn From theYankees

Beginning in 1947 and continuing through 1964 the New York Yankees won 16 American League pennants and 10 World Series titles. In 1965 the Yankees finished 9 games below .500 and in 6th place. Yankees fans were shocked. How could a team that made a habit out of winning pennants and championships fall so far so fast? This is an important question for the Angels because if they don't make significant moves this off season they could end up experiencing the same fate as the Yankees of the 1960s.

The 1965 Yankees had future Hall of Fame players Mickey Mantle and Whitey Ford and former AL MVP winners Elston Howard and Roger Maris. But in 1965 Mickey Mantle, Whitey Ford, Elston Howard, and Roger Maris were getting old. Bobby Richardson, Clete Boyer and Tom Tresh were above average but not the type of players a pennant winning team is built around. Young players such as Bobby Murcer, Jake Gibbs, Roy White, and Roger Repoz never developed into the championship-caliber type of players the Yankees front office believed they would. In 1966 the Yankees finished behind the Washington Senators and Kansas City A's in last place. It would be 9 more seasons before the Yankees would reach the post-season.

This period of New York Yankees history should not be lost on the Angels. Beginning in 2002, the Angels have won a World Series championship and 4 division titles. But unless drastic changes are made during this off season, the 2009 version of the Angels could follow the same path as the 1965 Yankees. Vlad Guerrero and Garret Anderson are getting older. The Angels have picked up Vlad's 2009 option but it is questionable if Anderson will be back. Torii Hunter and Chone Figgins are both solid players players but neither are corner stones of a World Series winner. Experts have said that Howie Kendrick, Eric Aybar, Brandon Wood, Sean Rodriguez, and Kendry Morales have potential but it remains to be seen if they can produce at the Major League level.

The starting pitching the 2009 Angels will have is something the Yankees of the mid to late 1960s did not have. John Lackey, Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, and Jered Weaver have all proven to be Major League quality pitchers. There is no arguing that John Lackey is a true ace. But starting pitching alone is not enough to guarantee continued success when the offensive line up has so many holes. Most Angels fans believe signing Mark Teixeira is the most important off season move the team should make. But signing Teixeira is not enough to ensure continued success. It is time for Reagins and Scioscia to attempt to make several changes to this team's lineup through trades and free agents signings to ensure that October baseball is not a distant memory for the Angels.

Big Mistake by Joe Maddon

The conventional wisdom of baseball says win the game being played today and worry about tomorrow's game tomorrow. According to this morning's St. Petersburg Times, Rays manager Joe Maddon is going against this strategy. The newspaper reports that Maddon is planning to use his bullpen to finish the suspended game 5 and save starting pitchers James Shields and Matt Garza to pitch games 6 and 7. Maddon is quoted in the article as saying "we have to win this game [suspended game 5] to get to Garza." By choosing to use his bullpen, Maddon is setting his team up to have their season end Wednesday night in Philadelphia.

The Tampa Bay bullpen has been less than stellar in the World Series. Grant Balfour, Chad Bradford, Edwin Jackson, Trever Miller, David Price, Dan Wheeler, and J.P. Howell have combined to pitch 14.2 innings. They have allowed 12 hits, 5 homeruns, walked 8 batters, and allowed 8 runs. In the only game of the Series the Rays have won, starting pitcher James Shields pitched 5+ innings of shut out baseball. In an elimination game, Maddon should use the best pitcher he has available. That pitcher is staff ace James Shields. If Maddon goes through with his plan to use his bullpen the next game Shields or Matt Garza will pitch will in the opening series of the 2009 season.

Mike Jacobs to the Royals?

After a hectic summer and fall I am again posting my thoughts on baseball and other sports here on Rounding Third and Heading Home.

If trading for a player like Mike Jacobs is general manager Dayton Moore's idea of improving the team, the Kansas City Royals will never be a contending team in the American League Central Division.

Mike Jacobs is a free swinging first baseman with some pop in his bat. In 2008 he hit 32 homeruns and drove in 93 for the Marlins. But he also posted a .248 batting average, struck out 119 times, and showed poor plate discipline by posting a .299 OBP. Jacobs will also command a huge pay raise this off season as he is eligible for salary arbitration for the first time. The Royals also have options to man first base in 2009. Kila Ka'aihue had a monster year for AAA Omaha and Ryan Shealy is fully recovered from his injuries and performed well for Kansas City in September. It is likely that either Ka'aihue or Shealy would be able to produce nearly as well as Jacobs for close to the Major League minimum salary.

Stop Crying Cardinals Fans

It is inter-league time and the Royals and Cardinals are playing the second installment of the 2008 I-70 Series. Each year when Kansas City and St. Louis hook up many Cardinals fans and announcers begin what has become a yearly ritual, whining about how a blown call cost their team the 1985 World Series. The mention of umpire Don Denkinger still sends many of the Cardinals faithful into a rage. What most of these fans refuse to understand is the missed call by Denkinger didn't cost the Cardinals the World Series. In the interest of setting the story straight this entry is going to revisit Game 6 of the 1985 World Series and show the Cardinals fans they have no one to blame but their own team for not winning the title.

Game 6 was played at what was then called Royals Stadium. Pitchers Danny Cox of the Cardinals and Charlie Liebrandt were both outstanding and the score was tied at 0-0 as the game headed into the 8th inning. In the 8th inning former Salt Lake Bees manager Brian Harper hit an RBI single and the Cardinals took a 1-0 lead. The lead was still 1-0 when the Royals came to bat in the bottom of the 9th. Jorge Orta led off the 9th hitting a ground ball to Cardinals first baseman Jack Clark. Clark field the grounder and flipped the ball to Cardinals pitcher Todd Worrell covering first. The ball was there on time and even Royals fans will agree that Jorge Orta should have been called out. But umpire Don Denkinger missed the call and Orta was safe at first base. Even though Orta was on base because of a missed call this did not cost the Cardinals the game. The chain of events that followed provided the Cardinals with opportunities to over come the call and win the game.
Original Story: http://coachk8.blogspot.com.
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