I always hear that without Steve Nash Phoenix would fall apart. That's pathetic. They have a loaded roster, talent at all the positions. The same goes for Dallas.

So why do the two players with the best ensemble casts, Steve Nash and Dirk Nowitzski, always frontrun the MVP talk?

Kobe Bryant has Lamar Odom, and that is the only other player on his team that can really create his own shot.

I mean, has anybody seen this guy lately? Talk about peaking at the right time.

That's exactly what the Lakers used to do when they were winning championships. Of course, back then Kobe and Shaq always got dropped down in the MVP discussion because of the fact that each had each other to relieve pressure. Who is relieving pressure for Kobe Bryant?

Maybe if he had a Josh Howard, Jason Terry or a Jerry Stackhouse, he could relax on offense and save his energy for clutch fourth quarters.

Or if he had a Shawn Marion- Raja Bell-Leandro Barbosa- Boris Diaw-James Jones three point shooting threat, he could dribble anywhere on the court and not worry about being doubled immediately.

I mean, have you seen him? He's going through double teams like MJ. That's it. I've never seen somebody cut so nice, and neither have you.

No, you haven't. Stop trying to think of someone.

Kobe For MVP. All I'm saying.

So who are the leading candidates for defensive MVP?

Marcus Camby: 11.4 RPG (9.2 def.), 3.2 BPG, 1.2 SPG

Emeka Okafor: 11.7 RPG (7.7 def.), 2.8 BPG, 0.9 SPG

Josh Smith: 8.4 RPG (6.2 def.), 2.9 BPG, 1.4 SPG

Jermaine O'Neal: 10.0 RPG (7.6 def.), 2.7 BPG, 0.8 SPG

Ben Wallace: 10.6 RPG (6.6 def.), 2.1 BPG, 1.5 SPG

Shawn Marion: 10.1 RPG (8.0 def.), 1.5 BPG, 2.0 SPG

Dwayne Wade: 4.8 RPG (3.8 def.), 1.3 BPG, 2.1 SPG

Kevin Garnett: 12.8 RPG (10.3 def.), 1.7 BPG, 1.2 SPG

Tough. I would love a team with Wade and Kobe Bryant (the most underrated defensive player of our generation) at guard, Camby at center, Shawn Marion and Kevin Garnett at forwards. Throw in Ben Wallace and Emeka Okafor backing up Camby, Josh Smith, Jermaine O'Neal and Caron Butler (almost made the list) off the bench as forwards, and Ron Artest (also-ran) and Baron Davis as backup guards. Make Alonzo Mourning their player/coach.

I'm gonna say that it boils down to Camby, Wallace and Marion. Wallace's team has the lowest opponents FG% for any of the three's teams, but I want to give it to Camby. He's finally put together a full season and show that he's not just a overrated ex-Knick who cashed in on a sweet deal for more than he was worth.

I know all of you watch PTI. They posited this question, and I went to go look it up. Of the 27 quarterbacks in this league who have played at least 8 seasons, only eight of them have played in Super Bowls.

Three are still starting: Steve McNair, Brett Favre, Matt Hasselbeck, Brad Johnson.

Three are now backups: Kurt Warner, Trent Dilfer, Drew Bledsoe, Two of them are inured and out for the season: Donovan McNabb and Jake Delhomme.

Only four of these quarterbacks won the Super Bowl they playe in: Favre, Johnson, Warner McNair and Dilfer.

So it looks like Peyton should, if he was average, get a 33% chance of playing in one. He's exceptional, so I'll add a little. The game was "Oddsmakers", after all.

43%. That's it. What do you think?

Besides that, got to squeeze in a quickie while studying for finals. First, the abbreviated top 10.

1. San Diego Chargers (1)

2. Cincinnati Bengals (5)

3. Baltimore Ravens (3)

4. Chicago Bears (6)

5. Tennessee Titans (unranked)

6. Indianapolis Colts (2)

7. Jacksonville Jaguars (unranked)

8. New England Patriots (4)

9. New Orleans Saints (9)

10. Denver Broncos (8)

I will say this: Vince Young is THE SHOW right now. You should get NFL Sunday Ticket if you don't get him locally. He's the reincarnation of Randall Cunningham.

Now, the picks for the games between two teams with playoff chances. I'm ruling out the 6-7 AFC teams, because its gonna take ten wins to get in in that conference. Similarly out are the 5-8 teams in the NFC, because virtually all of them lose a tiebreaker to the 7-6 teams. That means they won't get in, even at 8-8. So we have five games.

1. Dallas at Atlanta. The "Boys will come into this game hungry, and Atlanta hasn't won more than two games in a row all season. This would be their third. But they also won two in a row and are returning home. The health of their running backs will factor, but get this: Parcells has never coached against Vick. The defense might be a little outmatched, and if their receivers can catch balls they should win this game at home. Plus, I decided to give the Cowboys the benefit of the doubt against the Saints and they burned me! Fuck 'em, I say. Falcons 31, Cowboys 28.

2. New York Jets at Minnesota. There's no indication that Minnesota will be able to beat the Jets. The difference in quality between conferences is evident at this point. Minnesota hasn't beaten a quality opponent since the Seahawks, who they beat by taking out Hasselbeck. Before that, a Carolina team without Steve Smith. Jets 35, Vikings 18.

3. Philadelphia at New York Giants. If Strahan was playing I would feel much more comfortable about this. If Eli Manning wasn't 3-3 at home, I'd make this pick with more ease. As well as the Eagles are playing, I don't think that they get this one. The Giants are just a better team at this point. Giants 24, Eagles 21.

4. Kansas City at San Diego. Are you kidding me? Is anybody picking the Chiefs. The myriad of reasons need not be explicated here. Chargers 38, Chiefs 20.

5. Cincinnati at Indianapolis. This one won't be a blowout like some may anticipate. Indy is facing criticism that their offense is suffering, and you have to assume that Peyton can amass a sense of pride in these guys. Should be one hell of a show. Stokeley was dropping all the passes anyway, but having Proehl as a third receiver stopped scaring defenses in oh, I don't know, maybe 2002. Cincy can gash them with the run, and kill them on the deep ball. Bengals 42, Colts 38.

So what does this say about the playoff pictures?

AFC divisional: San Diego stays in first, and should keep doing so. Baltimore has the tiebreaker against them, is on their ass with an easier schedule. These two get the byes. Despite struggling, New England and Indy are still locks for their division.

AFC Wild Card: Cincy goes to Indy and then to Denver, but both of those teams are more scared of the Bengals than the Bengals are of them. I still have them taking one of the spots with either an 11-5 or 10-6 record. Jacksonville and Kansas City will play each other the last week of the season, with the Jags probably at 9-5 and the Chiefs 8-7. The Jets will regroup, but now the best they can hope for is 10-6. Denver might steal one against Cincy at home, and that would create a cockblock at 10-6. But I'm not buying Denver getting three in a row, even if Arizona and San Fran are two of the three. So I'm gonna stay with Cincy to win that one. Can I justify to myself and others my continued support for the New York Jets? Nope. Jacksonville beat them 41-0, so there's the tiebreaker. The playoff teams will thus be the two in the lead right now.

NFC Divisional: Chicago has home field. All New Orleans needs is two out of three to secure a bye, and I say they get that. Seattle has the division, but I'm not so sure about Dallas. The Giants can easily catch them and has the better division record. But both teams have one easy win, a game against Philly, and then the other one is different. Dallas has Atlanta, Giants have New Orleans. I say Dallas keeps the division.

NFC Wild Card: My picks (Falcons and Giants) are still in the lead, and I have both of them winning this week. I have the Giants getting two of three and finishing 9-7. Philly has a brutal schedule, I can't give them victories over New York or even really Dallas. So they're out, great story as Jeff Garcia is. Atlanta might still struggle with them at Philly in the last game, and if they lose to Carolina they'll be 8-7 going into it. But Carolina won't beat Pittsburgh this week, so if they beat Atlanta they'll still be 7-8 going into New Orleans. Carolina's chances are slim to none. Minnesota? They won't beat the Jets, the best they'll get to is 8-8. That means that if Atlanta loses their last two games, they'll slide to 8-8 and lose the tiebreaker to the Vikings based on conference record. But that won't happen. I'm keeping my teams.

If you want to watch Ben Roethlisberger and Derek Anderson fight to a draw in a sloppily defended touchdownfest, go right ahead. But you'd be missing valuable information abou the six games that really matter.

Ok so I went 3-5, getting me to 17-22. I won't make it to .500 this week, so the streak continues. But its getting late in the season, and homefield advantage makes tough choices easier. Lesgo!

1. Baltimore at Kansas City. The Chiefs have one of the toughest stadiums to play in, this we all know. But they looked terrible last week, and Baltimore has the best defense in the league right now. Jared Allen and Jonathan Ogden will be the big matchup, but given each's respective talents, the real deal will be the other side of the line. DE Tamba Hali vs. T Tony Pashos will determine whether Steve McNair will get the protection he needs. I think this will be a low-scoring affair, and that favors the road team. Ravens 17, Chiefs 14.

2. Indianapolis at Jacksonville. The Jags haven't beaten the Colts in their own house since 2003. Their secondary will have its usual problems with the Indy receiver corps, but this game is always close. Jacksonville will be able to run the ball effectively, which will keep them in the game. But you gotta believe that Indy wants to stay indoors in January, and all of a sudden they don't automatically have home field. Colts 23, Jacksonville 20.

3. New York Giants at Carolina. Did you see the Tuna's face after that field goal won them the game? That was the most surprised/relieved I've ever seen the Tuna at the end of the game, and we're talking about the beneficiary of "Wide Right" here. Eli had a good game, and it was one big play that gave them field goal range, otherwise we've got overtime with momentum in the Giants' favor. I have to believe that Michael Strahan will play in this one. This one will be close, and the Panthers have been losing the close ones. Giants 17, Panthers 14.

4. Denver at San Diego. This may just be a blowout. Knowing Marty, that means shutdown second half, LT getting 200 yards. I don't see Denver getting anything going in this game. Merriman and Phillips will create havoc. Chargers 34, Broncos 17.

5. New Orleans at Dallas. I've gotten the Cowboys wrong the last two weeks, so I'm gonna give them this one at home. New O might get Colston back, so this could turn into a shootout. But Hollis Thomas will be missed as Dallas runs all over the Saints. Cowboys 27, Saints 23.

6. Chicago at St. Louis. Don't worry, this is the last time a Rams game will matter to both teams. Carolina showed that their high powered offense can be stopped, and Chicago is even better. Sans Tommie Harris, they'll still get to Bulger. He has bruised ribs. We'll probably see Frerotte. P.S. doesn't it seem like only yesterday that Frerotte and Heath Shuler were competing for the "Skins job? Now the latter is a congressman, and Frerotte is still backing up younger, better quarterbacks. Can't decide who I feel worse for. Bears 23, Rams 10.

So here's how it looks for the wild card in the NFC:

-The group of teams at 6-6 all play three teams with legit playoff chances. Each team will have two games against teams in direct competition in this very group. None of these teams look very good right now.

-The group of teams at 5-7 can't afford more than one more loss. Minnesota has a far easier path to the playoffs, not facing a single division leader and only one good team (NYJ). San Fran will have to play at Seattle and beat Denver in a game that will most likely mean something to the Broncos after Sunday's loss.St. Louis faces Chicago, and then Minny at the end of the season in Minneapolis. If Minnesota can win that game they will go 8-8.

-So how will the 6-6 teams do? I think the Giants will get healthier (they can't get any worse) and take out Carolina and Philly in the next two weeks. With a probable loss to New Orleans and a win over Washington, they get to 9-7. So that puts Carolina with one loss, a win over Pittsburgh and then two road games against Atlanta and New Orleans. They'll lose the first one and then probably tank the second one, either way they'll be 8-8 at best.

-I think Atlanta is a good bet for the rest of the way. They could easily pop Tony Romo's bubble, and build a head of steam going into Philly for the last game. Doubtful they'll go 10-6, probably 9-7. Philly losing to the Giants and Falcons puts them 8-8 if they can beat the Cowboys.

My NFC Wild Card Picks: New York Giants and Atlanta Falcons

And here's how it looks in the AFC:

-There's a five-way tie at 7-5. Of these teams, as I have been saying all season, the Jets have the easiest schedule. They don't play a team with a winning record, while Cincy and Denver face two each, Kansas City and Jacksonville three each. They don't play any division leaders, unlike Kansas City and Jacksonville, who each must face two division leaders in the next four weeks. So New York should slide in at 11-5, 10-6 at the worst. The best team they play is Minnesota!

-So the race for the last spot splits into two groups with different chances. The first is Denver and Cincy. As mentioned, they play less division leaders and less winning teams than Kansas City and Jacksonville. Denver and Cincy face each other in three weeks, and going into it both of them will probably be 8-6 (although Cincy could knock off Indy with a strong effort like that which has shown up the last two weeks, the game is in Indy). I like Cincy in the game, and I think taking care of Pittsburgh will put them at 10-6, meaning a streaking Tennessee Titans will fall short even if the sweep the rest of the season. Denver will come in at 9-7, too short for the playoffs.

-So how about the chances of the second group, Kansas City and Jacksonville? Slim, that's for sure. KC plays Baltimore and San Diego the next two weeks, and a win over Oakland would probably boost them to 8-7 going into their final match against the Jags. Jacksonville must play Indy, Tennessee and New England before even thinking about Kansas City. The way they're playing they won't win a single game, but for the sake of argument I'll give them one. That makes them 8-7 as well. They will enter the last game knowing that they must win and Cincy must lose the have a chance, perhaps not even that because Cincy definitely has the tie breaker over KC and almost assuredly does over the Jaguars. The winner of that game won't make it.

My AFC Wild Card Picks: New York Jets and Cincinnati Bengals.

Stay tuned later in the week for this week's picks! Six games, two of them head to head clashes! Oh boy!

That is a direct quote from Sly Stallone himself, talking to Tony Kornheiser. How did Rocky know about Pardon The Interruption, the pinnacle of sports talk television? My guess is his agent warned him that there was this show that had mocked the prospects of "Rocky Balboa," this surefire atrocity he's peddling right now. But anyways, I got through Sunday's regular games 3-3 and saw Denver and Carolina as solid bets to make me 5-3. Whoops!

-Denver didn't look very good with Jay Cutler, but I would be more worried about Al Wilson's health than the QB problem. They look shaky for a playoff run, and everyone is speculating that Shanahan is giving the season away. Maybe he as good reason to.

-Dallas pulled out a victory in a sloppy game featuring a weak Dallas offense smashing a paper-thin Giants defense. I'm STILL not buying the Cowboys. And the Giants ain't getting to the divisional round of the playoffs, that's for damn sure.

-Jacksonville eeked out a win, but see below for reasons why they as well are finished.

-Minnesota couldn't beat Chicago with five turnovers given to them. Why? Because Brad Johnson threw FOUR picks in the third quarter. Chicago doesn't play another team with a winning record, so they should cruise.

-Kansas City couldn't play enough defense to stop Cleveland from scoring two touchdowns in the fourth. Derek Anderson (who?) fucked them up. See below reasons why they're fucked for the playoffs now.

- Vince Young is the most exciting player in the league to watch right now. He's taking teams apart. I wouldn't want to play the Titans right now, and Jacksonville and New England better watch out because these guys roll through like a freight train. Belicheck will have a fun time trying to scheme this type of pure athlete.

-Atlanta won a game they should've, but they're future is sketchy. Again, see below.

-Fucking Niners. I'm not going to bother with reasons why they will hopefully sac it up enough to beat the Packers. Reasons below why they're probably fucked as well.

Top 10! I'm eschewing the reasons for this week's selection in order to tell you "All You Need To Know About the Playoff Scenarios!"

1. San Diego Chargers (2)

2. Indianapolis Colts (1)

3. Baltimore Ravens (3)

4. New England Patriots (4)

5. Cincinnati Bengals (7)

6. Chicago Bears (5)

7. Dallas Cowboys (8)

8. Denver Broncos (6)

9. New Orleans Saints (unranked)

10. New York Jets (10).

So here are the top teams in the NFL by record, with their respective TE's:

Indianapolis Colts, 10-1: Dallas Clark and Ben Utecht

Baltimore Ravens, 9-2: Todd Heap

San Diego Chargers, 9-2: Antonio Gates

Chicago Bears, 9-2: Desmond Clark

New England Patriots, 8-3: Ben Watson and Daniel Graham

Kansas City, 7-4: Tony Gonzalez

Notice anything? All of these teams have an outstanding receiving tight end. Heap, Gates, Gonzalez and Watson all have over 45 catches and at least three touchdowns. Heap has six scores, Desmond Clark 4. New England's TE combo has accounted for 56 catches and 5 scores, Indy's twosome 53 and 4.

So let's see who's gonna win this weekend ...

1. Baltimore at Cincinnati. This will be a tough game. Last week I conned out on the Ravens by saying that the Steelers would want it more. Nobody wants it more than Ray Lewis. I doubt that the Bengals will be able to beat Baltimore in any situation, three wide or otherwise. Cincy gives up a healthy allowance of rushing yards each week, so Baltimore can run up an early lead and grind the game out. Ravens 24, Bengals 13.

2. Minnesota at Chicago. Chicago could sure use a boost after that long road trip. Will they have the energy left to pummel the Vikings as they should? Without Tony Richardson there will be no running game for either team, and this one will grind itself out in field goals. Bears 19, Vikings 12.

3. San Diego at Buffalo. The Chargers sleep their way through most of the game on offense, content they can come back when it matters. Shawne Merriman comes back, so I wouldn't be surprised if Buffalo gets shut out. In fact, that's what I'm calling. Chargers 24, Bills 0.

4. Jacksonville at Miami. The Jags can't afford another loss, and couldn't have picked a worse team to play in this situation. The Dolphins have won four straight and will continue as they stifle Jacksonville's offense thoroughly. Dolphins 20, Jaguars 13.

5. Dallas at New York Giants. It doesn't look like the Giants have much of a chance, but this team often gets resilient with its back against the wall. Their defense will show up, hopefully, because their offense will be lucky to put up 20 the way they've been playing. Cowboys 27, Giants 17.

6. Seattle at Denver. I have a hard time believing that Shanahan would put in Cutler unless he saw immediate benefits. The kid's probably a game manager, and will take less risks. This game should be no problem for the home team. Broncos 31, Seahawks 17.

7. Carolina at Philadelphia. The way the Panthers are playing there is no such thing as an easy game. That being said, I'm pretty sure Phily will only show up for the first quarter or so. This will be their season, and as we all know their season has been over since McNabb went down. Can Carolina get things clicking? The answer is no. Panthers 15, Eagles 10.

And the moment you've all been waiting for:

THREE REASONS WHY I'M GOING AGAINST CONVENTIONAL WISDOM AND PICKING THE NINERS FOR THE UPSET OVER THE NEW ORLEANS SAINTS:

1. No home dome. The Saints have a worse record at home (3-2) than they do on the road (4-2). The crowd won't be able to intimidate the Niners the way Rams fans did. This doesn't speak well for the coming game at Seattle, but it should help ease the home-field advantage this week.

2. Frank Gore. This guy is always a reason why they win. New Orleans is another gift for the Niners rushing offense, a team in the bottom five in rush defense. Please, for the love of God, go for it on fourth this week! We were so close!

3. Turnovers. The Saints are -9 on the year. That ball always takes a kinder bounce indoors, and the Niners can easily swoop on some turnovers and convert them into points.

So here's my pick: Niners 30, Saints 28.

So check this out: Six quarterbacks threw interceptions in the fourth quarter of last weeks game: Eli Manning, Alex Smith, Brett Favre, Rex Grossman, Matt Leinart and Jake Delhomme. All of them ended up losing the game. So which quarterbacks can you count on in the fourth quarter?

I checked the stats, and so far this season there have been four groups of QB's: Winners, managers, even bets and losers. The QB's considered are from teams that have a chance of making the playoffs. With the season on the line, who's gonna win you the football game? Who can at least, for the love of God, not lose it for you?

The fourth quarter TD-INT ratio and number of games are included.

Winners:

Philip Rivers, SD: 6-0 in 11

Damon Huard, KC: 3-0 in 9 (8 starts)

Marc Bulger, STL: 5-1 in 11

Carson Palmer, CIN: 7-2 in 11

Drew Brees, NO: 6-2 in 11

Tom Brady, NE: 7-4 in 11

J. P. Losman, BUF: 4-0 in 11

These guys not only have impressive TD numbers, they also keep the interceptions to a minimum. Rivers and Huard haven't given up a interception in the fourth quarter in a combined 20 games. While Brady does have 4 fourth quarter picks, which puts him up there with QB's from lower categories, he still has almost twice as many TD's as interceptions. And how about Losman? Surprising, but the fans in Buffalo have to be pleased.

Managers:

Joey Harrington, MIA: 3-1 in 7

Tony Romo, DAL: 3-2 in 7 (5 starts)

Chad Pennington, NYJ: 3-2 in 11

Byron Leftwich, JAX: 2-1 in 6

Matt Hasselbeck, SEA: 3-3 in 7

Peyton Manning, IND: 3-3 in 11

Alex Smith, SF: 2-2 in 11

David Garrard: 1-1 in 6 (5 starts)

These guys can at least be depended on not to lose the game. Hasselbeck was a mess in the first half on Monday night, but he recovered when it mattered. Alex Smith has cut his bad decisions down from last year in a drastic fashion, a huge improvement. As you can see, the difference between Garrard and Leftwich is minimal in fourth quarter situations. And Peyton Manning hasn't had to throw a lot in the fourth quarter this year. But Harrington, doing something with that talented core of receivers and tight ends in Miami. If they can sneak one against Jacksonville, they have a chance at the playoffs.

Even Bets:

Steve McNair, BAL: 4-4 in 11

Jake Delhomme, CAR: 4-4 in 11

Jake Plummer, DEN: 4-4 in 11

Brett Favre, GB: 5-5 in 11

Eli Manning, NYG: 6-6 in 11

These guys can make plays, but clearly this season they can be accused of trying to force passes late. Favre will always be in this category unless his team is any good. McNair is a surprise, but the Ravens have been in five games decided by a touchdown or less, and he's 4-1. Plummer has always struggled in this category, and was part of the impetus for the article. The other is Delhomme. Usually solid, often impressive late in important games, Delhomme has struggled this year, and the team has lost two games by a combined seven points in losses to Cincinnati and Washington, teams the Panthers should've beaten. Delhomme threw picks in both of those games.

And as for Eli Manning, I'm sure big bro will straighten him out over the offseason, but he looks shaky for the home stretch. Bet the Giants wish they still had the Bachelor.

Losers:

Rex Grossman, CHI: 2-5 in 11

Brad Johnson, MIN: 3-5 in 11

Drew Bledsoe, DAL: 2-4 in 6

Trent Green, KC: 0-1 in 3

Seneca Wallace, SEA: 2-3 in 6 (4 starts)

Michael Vick, ATL: 0-1, no rushing TD"s in 11

Now there really are two groups here. The first three quarterbacks are throwing way too many interceptions late in the game. You don't think Parcells got mad at Bledsoe over late game picks? The dude threw two of them in the first game of the season, and never really improved. Grossman and Johnson aren't safe bets for playoff teams, because defense wins championships, and mistakes lose them. Green doesn't have that much to go on, having only played two fourth quarters. He led his team to a winning touchdown late against the Raiders, but he threw a pick late against the Broncos that gave them the ball down less than a touchdown.

And as for Michael Vick, I can't say that it's really his fault, but he's looking more and more like he'll never be that video game player.

Some fun figures for non-playoff QB's:

Ben Roethlisberger, PIT: 3-9 in 10. Ouch!

Vince Young, TEN: 4-1 in 10 (8 starts). Watch out ...

David Carr, HOU: 7-1 in 11. This guy is like Steve Young when he used to play for the Bucs. So sad.

McNabb, PHI: 3-0 in 10. Always solid. Two of those came in that game against the Bucs where they almost came back from his two picks that Ronde Barber took to the house.

Tomorrow, I'll delve into the importance of TE's (besides Kellen Winslow Jr.) and get to my week's picks. Eight games between potential playoff contenders, this week will eliminate at least four teams. Can't wait, I'm gonna pad my stats, going from 13-17 to 19-19. Pray for it.

This week I go 2-3, the worst of it being the loss to the Rams by my beloved Niners. They will have to focus on the next game to keep them in the race, and I need to recalibrate my expectations. Maybe three reasons, not five, why the Niners will beat the Saints.

-Baltimore surpised me, knocking the Steelers out of contention. If they play as well as they did on Sunday, they can expect to beat Cincy and Kansas City in the next two weeks, and bear down upon a first round bye, which would certainly help McNair. The next games are on the road, so we'll see how the offense performs in opposing stadiums.

- Jake Delhomme kills the Panthers again with a fourth-quarter interception to end the game. Pay attention, this week's theme was game-killing interceptions. The consistency of the Carolina offense has to improve, as they face three teams in the playoff hunt in their conference on the road the rest of the way.

- Drew Brees lived up to the hype I assigned him. I will deal with the discussion about who's the best quarterback midweek in a separate column. Suffice to say, he's completed a pass of at least 50 yards 8 out of 11 games this season, the QB equivalent of Dominique Wilkins or Vince Carter.

- Michael Vick is getting no help, and it would be sad if Mora lost his job because Roddy White can't catch the ball. But these guys have lost four in a row and seem to be taking the postseason off this year. I don't know if Vick stopped running in the second half, or if the Saints got tired of looking like college players chasing him around like in the first half. But this team runs the ball too well to be kept out of the end zone like that.

-I don't know about Jacksonville. Fumbled interceptions, missed field goals, allowing kick returns for touchdowns. They should've won this game, and none of their remaining games are against soft opponents.

-San Diego cannot be stopped in the fourth quarter. And I love that back flip guy. They come up big in the end by intercepting Aaron Brooks at the end of the fourth quarter. Hmm.

-Behold Vince Young, second coming of Randall Cunningham. Eli Manning lost it for them, with two fourth quarter interceptions. But Young is gaining confidence, and that stride makes it hard to pick the right angle. His heroics will make the team a promising free agent destination, hopefully, because Tennessee only needs a couple of parts ...

-Kansas City had trouble in the red zone, but otherwise a solid performance with Trent Green back in the lineup. Coach Shanahan, this is the last chance to save your season. Plummer hasn't won a game against a winning team since October 9. Put in Cutler.

-I'm still not buying Romo. Let's see how he does next week.

-Nolan should've gone for it on fourth and inches, yes, I know. And they got robbed on that fumble recovery for a touchdown in the first half. But San Fran has to get better pressure on when a team goes four wide on them, because their corners only have three seconds of coverage in them.

-I don't know if Griese should come in for Grossman, but he did kill them with a fourth quarter interception! Again!

-P.S. Matt Leinart had a great game, but his hail mary at the end of the fourth quarter was intercepted to end the game. Just saying. To be fair, so did Alex Smith. That's six quarterbacks who threw fourth quarter interceptions in losing efforts!

Viva El Top 10! Lesgo!

1. Indianapolis Colts (1). I got some flack for calling Brees a better quarterback in the here and now than Peyton, and though the stats reflect that, Manning is still the most dominant and influential quarterback, maybe ever. I won't say he's better than anybody who's won at least two Super Bowls until he at least wins one, however. Gotta show that championship ability at some point. This may be the last chance for the Colts before the players lose faith and depart for teams with more interesting cities to live in.

2. San Diego Chargers (3). These guys are never out of a game. And now Merriman comes back. Marques Harris, you'll always have a job as cheerleader if you're NFL career peters out.

3. Baltimore Ravens (5). They are the best defense in the league, and that will always get you to the divisional playoffs.

4. New England Patriots (6). Huge win. They need desperately for their safeties to get healthy. But their offense got what it needed to win the game, and Troy Brown and Asante Samuel pitched in quite a bit.

5. Chicago Bears (2). They have a real problem on offense, with a bunch of easy teams to practice against until the playoffs. They'll still cruise into home field.

6. Denver Broncos (4). Their slide can't go on any longer if they want to make the playoffs. Because the Jets are going to go in at 11-5, and with KC tied with them and Jacksonville and Cincy a game behind they aren't going to slip in quietly.

7. Cincinnati Bengals (10). The road is tough from here on out, but these guys are coming together when it matters. No chance for the division, but a late season win at Denver might put them in the playoffs.

8. Dallas Cowboys (9). What is this world coming to? I have to give some to the 'Boys love for winning three straight in a conference where no other team has a multiple game winning streak right now.

9. Kansas City Chiefs (unranked). All they're doing is winning games, five of their last six. Three of those victories came against winning teams, two of which are in the AFC West. But four of those games were at home. Gotta win on the road to get in the playoffs.

10. New York Jets (unranked). These guys are for real, I keep telling you. They're in the playoffs, or my name isn't Lysol.

That's it for today, thank you if you actually read all this crap. Watch for a midweek column:

WHY TIGHT END PRODUCTION IS THE MOST IMPORTANT OFFENSIVE FACTOR IN SUCCESS

plus,

FOURTH QUARTER INTERCEPTIONS: THE SILENT KILLER

plus,

LYSOL PICKS THE WINNERS, featuring THREE REASONS WHY THE NINERS WILL EKE ONE OUT AGAINST THE GODLESS SAINTS.

Seriously, how can we have a Thanksgiving game without John Madden? His rambling is all the tryptophan I need. But we got some picks to make, and Thursday games press me into action today. Lesgo!

1. Denver at Kansas City. The Chiefs seem to have the upper hand here. They aren't coming off of a blown lead four days earlier on national television. They get to play in their own stadium, which is so loud it sometimes appears structurally unsound. Getting Brian Waters back means they can run without needing to keep Tony Gonzalez in to block. Pick your poison as the running back draws the weak side and middle linebackers up to the line of scrimmage to mirror Johnson and Denver's safeties watch Gonzalez to closely while Eddie Kennison pulls a double move and burns you for the touchdown. Trent Green is back. Chiefs 31, Denver 20.

2. New Orleans at Atlanta. The Saints have only held three teams to less than twenty one points all season. Atlanta has lost its last three games, scoring only 37 points combined in them. One of these trends will break, and I'm betting its the second one. We're gonna see a game with both teams in the thirties. I want to favor New Orleans at home, but Atlanta knows it has to turn its season around right now. A second loss to New Orleans kills them in their division. But New Orleans will win it late with Drew Brees, the best quarterback right now in the league, bar none. Yeah, I said it! Saints 42, Falcons 39.

3. Pittsburgh at Baltimore. Baltimore's defense is back, but Pittsburgh is playing like a man who owes money to a crack dealer: desperate and dangerous. They barely beat Cleveland, but Cleveland has only lost one game by more than ten points all season. This one will be close, dirty, and unspectacular offensively. Perhaps Santonio Holmes or B.J. Sams will grace us with a great return, or anyone on the Ravens defense for that matter. Sorry, but I'm giving this game to the team that wants it more, and thats gonna be the road team. Steelers 16, Ravens 9.

4. Chicago at New England. I can't see either team scoring much in this game. Tom Brady and the Patriots are 1-3 when they score 20 points or less. Chicago will hold them to three scores or less. Can their offense get going? Berrian's ribs must be getting better by now. Defensive score by the Bears is the difference again. Bears 16, Patriots 13.

And finally: 5 REASONS WHY THE 49ERS WILL BEAT THE RAMS ON SUNDAY:

1. Frank Gore and his beautiful, pulling offensive line. Did I tell you, or did I tell you? One block at the line of scrimmage and he's gone. They might not get that many yards this week, but St. Louis gives up almost 40 rushing yards per game more than Seattle, even after giving up 262 to fuck up their average last week. Gore gets at least 150.

2. Brandon Moore. The 49ers have a terrible pass defense, so guess what? They're gonna blitz St. Louis hard, because only Oakland and Cleveland give up more passes. Bulger is Drew Bledsoe around his prime, a pinpoint pocket passer who couldn't slip out of a tackle to save his life.

3. Norv Turner. When the weakness is the running game, defenses tend to pack the line and depend on their corners to single up on the receivers. But Gore blew up Seattle, and something tells me Rams defensive coaches probably checked the tape and noticed what I did. So don't sell out at the line, what does that leave you? Deep safeties with their eyes on the backfield. Run fake! Double route, touchdown.

4. Alex Smith. He hasn't really broken out this year, although his 69.2 % completion rate is spectacular. He hasn't hit 300 yards because we haven't needed to. But teams are gonna try to make him beat them after Gore's performance last week. I think he can do it. He is more judicious this year with his throws, and I think he does what he has to. Three touchdowns, hopefully not 300 yards because that would mean a close game.

5. Adam Goldberg. The revered Orlando Pace went down during the loss to Seattle. The next week, Goldberg started for the Rams. His job: protect Bulger's blindside. The result: the Panthers harassed Bulger all day, recording seven sacks, making him throw for 142 yards, a season low. The man matching up with Goldberg, Mike Rucker, scored two sacks. The Rams had seven three-and-outs and punted nine times while being shut out. The Niners' defense isn't as good as the Panthers', but they can put pressure on.

So let's see. Gore runs for 150, Alex Smith gets three touchdowns, the Niners get five sacks and this one isn't even close. St. Louis fans leave in the fourth quarter. Hell, maybe Bulger goes out for the year. Anyways:

Niners 34, Rams 17.

So I went 3-3, giving the Jets too much credit, San Diego and Dallas not enough, but pegging Seattle, Baltimore and the New York Giants as "exactly who we thought they were." Sorry, Denny, but I'm going to have to switch to some playoff-relative discussion now:

-San Diego impressed everyone with another comeback against Denver. I said the game would come down to turnovers, and though San Diego lost the margin for the game, it was Jake throwing the pick in the fourth that cost them the game. LT is magic, and all of a sudden the Chargers are contending for home-field advantage.

-Colts have an off day. They need Bob Sanders back soon. But I'm still not buying the Cowboys as title contenders. They just play in the NFC.

-Philly's done. Jeff Garcia can win them three or four more games, but it likely won't be enough. They go to Indy, then play Carolina, then go on the road against their whole division, only to battle Atlanta to the death in the last game.

-Baltimore showed up without Ray Lewis, but did you see him on the sideline? I thought he was gonna break onto the field and tackle Vick. They have their division title, and a bye would help their aging offense.

-Did you see my Niners? Thank God they held onto that one. They have to basically win out, and going into St. Louis will be big next week. Frank Gore might be the most productive rusher the Niners have had in their modern era. Craig and Watters were great, but they never put up the numbers that Gore has. I was amused to see that Gore broke Charlie Garner's single game record. It must've been that one year he played for us, after he killed us with the Eagles. No, I haven't forgotten.

-Same old Panther football, eh? One touchdown coming from a big play that Steve Smith breaks, a bunch of field goals and a defensive shutout. I only hope the Niners can do the same thing next week. I might be the only one who says this, but what is wrong with their offense seems to be Jake Delhomme. He isn't making consistent, smart decisions with the football. Maybe he's in a slump, or that span in the playoffs where he was Brady-esque was a flash in the pan. Bring on Brett Basanez!

-Speaking of inconsistency, those Jaguars sure looked good on Monday night. If only their wide receivers could catch balls. Put in Marcedes Lewis!

Here comes the new Top Ten! Bam! Lesgo!

1. Indianapolis Colts (1). I think it would be hasty to jump off the bandwagon after one loss. I would grant them two more, against Jacksonville and Cincy later this year. That would keep them 13-3 and still have a bye, homefield advantage as long as the Chargers don't win the rest of their games. These guys needed a loss because you can only gain so much knowledge out of reviewing the film of wins. You need mistakes to correct.

2. Chicago Bears (2). They have one more big game, against New England next week. Win that and its all downhill, time to start worrying about losing focus for the playoffs. Always a worry when your offense can't be counted on. But they have the clamps on any offense in the NFC, so beating them will be tough.

3. San Diego Chargers (4). Huge win this week. Their defense will get a huge boost from Merriman and Castillo returning, but their secondary is still a question mark. They don't have a solid cover corner, which is critical because if you double Harrison, Johnson or Walker, then the slot is gonna burn you.

4. Denver Broncos (3). They've lost two close home games to teams above them on this list. But their schedule is tough and they need to pull together. That defense just got LaDainianed.

5. Baltimore Ravens (5). Big props for holding together with no Ray Lewis last week. If they can win one of their road games against Kansas City or Cincy, they'll be safe in the division. Don't overlook a pissed off Pittsburgh, though.

6. New England Patriots (6). Pummelling Green Bay doesn't mean anything, but it was a nice touch. Chicago's gonna be tough, then they cruise until they hit Jacksonville. Another AFC East title. Can they protect Brady long enough to score against Chicago?

7. Carolina Panthers (unranked). I'm not hopping on the bandwagon, I just need to round out the top ten. Their defense still imposes its will, they will find a way to win their division. They just have more prime time players with big game experience than either Atlanta or New Orleans.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars (8). It's an uphill battle now, but their run defense is too stout to count them out. Hey, that rhymed.

9. Dallas Cowboys (unranked). I don't know how they won the game, I was too busy watching the 49ers win their third consecutive game for the first time since 2002. Not buying Romo. Looks like the zebras helped a little bit at the end. I've got them in the playoffs, but this just shows how pathetic the NFC is.

10. Cincinnati Bengals (unraked). It takes heart to come back from three consecutive losses of eight points or fewer and go on the road against the Saints. They gave up ridiculous yardage, but check this out: playing defense in the red zone three times, they got two interceptions and allowed a field goal. Never mind the two long pass plays for touchdown, a bend but not break philosophy works as long as the offense does.

I'll be back soon with this week's predictions. Now 11-14, I'm getting closer to my goal of breaking even on the most important games of each week. There are four games with both teams .500 or better, but I'm not going to waste space telling you Indy beats Philly. Instead, I'm gonna throw in Baltimore vs Pittsburgh because it will be the best game played on Sunday. NBC wishes they could nab it.

Plus: FIVE REASONS WHY THE NINERS WILL BEAT THE RAMS!

sTAY tUNED!

Some decently big games coming up. St. Louis vs. Carolina and Cincinnati vs. New Orleans don't make the cut because in each game one of the teams is sub-.500, and I've already given the single exception this week to my beloved San Francisco 49ers. End of the article: 5 Reasons Why The 49ers WILL Win This Sunday! But now:

Picks of the Week! I took a bye week after my first winning weekend, and now stand at 8-11. But I'm getting better all the time ... Lesgo!

1. Atlanta at Baltimore. This looks like a no-brainer based on last week. But Baltimore's banged up. Ray Lewis is unlikely to play, and his backup is out for the game. But Atlanta is missing their two stud defensive ends and the rest of their defense is hurt. Look for Mark Clayton to run right past injured backup CB Jimmy Williams, who replaces Jason Webster. Both teams will run all over the place, and no Ray Lewis equals Dunn and Norwood breaking embarassingly long runs. Ravens 24, Falcons 14.

2. Chicago at New York Jets. I'm calling this in advance as the best game of the week. Chicago's defense is the perfect test for Pennington, but I give him a chance if Harrington can score on them. Berrian's ribs may keep him from hitting that extra gear against a banged up Jets secondary. I'll give this one to the Jets, who are still not being taken seriously. And even if they lose, they don't have any challenging games left the rest of regular season. Rex Grossman turns the ball over at least 4 times. Jets 24, Bears 20.

3. Indianapolis at Dallas. C'mon, does anybody think this is gonna be a game? The Cowboys lose their only pass rusher, Ellis, for the game, and there's no way that Dallas can cover Indy's receivers for more than three seconds. Dallas can run all over the Colts, but they're gonna have to pass to stay in the game, and that's where the problems start. Colts 48, Cowboys 27.

4. San Diego at Denver. I don't know how to call this one. San Diego can frustrate Denver's offense, causing lots of turnovers, and then capitalize on them with an explosive offense. Denver allows the least points a game, and San Diego hasn't played a top ten defense since Baltimore, who beat them by holding them to 12 points. And Javon Walker seems to get into the end zone at least once a game. Plummer almost loses it for Denver, but they manage to play to the home crowd and stuff LT. Broncos 20, San Diego 16.

5. New York Giants at Jacksonville. If the Jags don't put Leftwich in, they can kiss this game goodbye. The Giants come out of that last game angry and on a short week, but according to the Jag's injury report the entire team died on Tuesday. Garrard impresses with his play, but Leftwich has got to be the most underrated quarterback in the game today. Nobody notices that he has a better TD-INT ratio, passer rating or completion percentage than Garrard. But feel free to let him go so the Niners can get him. Anyways, the Jags have only lost two games in a row once in the last two years, and they don't do it here. Jaguars 27, Giants 17.

6. Seattle at San Francisco. The moment you've all been waiting for!

FIVE REASONS THE 49ERS WILL BEAT THE SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AND RESTORE ALL THAT IS GOOD AND RIGHT WITH THE WORLD:

1. Frank Gore. Seattle won't be able to stop him, they give up 100 yards rushing to almost every team. He will break one as the Seahawks try to gang up at the line of scrimmage and he gets that one seal block he needs.

2. Vernon Davis. Even if he can't catch balls yet, him being on the field will draw Julian Peterson away from the backfield, which is always a good thing.

3. San Francisco's pass rush. Seattle's quarterbacks have been sacked 32 times, third to Oakland and Cleveland. Their quarterbacks have combined for eleven interceptions. Put the rush on and you can shut down their offense.

4. Matt Hasselbeck. They will try to start him, and he won't be ready. The 49ers should get some early points off turnovers before Wallace comes back in.

5. The San Francisco 49ers crowd. I spent the weekend in the city feeling out the reaction to the news of a move to Santa Clara, and some said good riddance. Most opined for the better days, under better management. The York family has destroyed a cherished franchise, and only by wresting it back will the tradition continue. But the fans are smart enough to recognize the difference between the team, which they have always loved, and the organization, which has let them down. It is a sad realization that often must be made in today's sports world, where your local team only loves you if you buy them new things, like an expensive prostitute.

But I digress. 49ers 20, Seattle 12. Go Niners!

Sorry kids, been too busy to mess with picks last week, but I'll be back last week. So here's what's up:

-Cincy's done.

-The Jets are still in prime position to sneak into the playoffs, making up for that robbery against Cleveland.

-Seattle better watch out. Because its not like I'm trying to jinx the 49ers, who have now won their first games in back to back weeks that mattered since 2002. Seattle has an intimidating 3-0 division record, but in common games they're 5-3 and San Fran is 4-3. Next week is big for the weak-ass NFC Worst.

Got the GRE's tomorrow, so I'm gonna skip straight to the top ten. I'll think of a treat for you guys later in the week. Lesgo!

1. Indianapolis Colts (1). These guys win by default, but who has confidence in them? Is this where they are in their evolution, learning how to win close games against losing teams? God forbid they don't get home-field.

2. Chicago Bears (2). That front four is the best in the NFL, but beating on a limping Giants team doesn't do it for me. They have a trap game against the Jets, then a big one at New England. Don't hold your breath for two straight victories.

3. Denver Broncos (4). Jake Plummer has twelve turnovers, but Javon Walker still gets open enough for them to win games. What happened to all the baller teams?

4. San Diego Chargers (6). Oh yeah, their defense is either shooting up or getting shot. They're offense balls, but how do they take out Denver at their place? Turnovers will win that game, so at least they have a chance.

5. Baltimore Ravens (5). I pity the Titans fans who saw their favorite players light them up on Sunday. But the defense gave up an uncharacteristic 26 points and let Travis Henry get 100 yards on them, the first time that's happened all season. Sketchy.

6. New England Patriots (3). Let down game after an emotional loss to the Colts. Understandable. They still win the division.

7. New York Jets (unranked). I've been telling you guys: this team will make the playoffs. They will lose their next game to Chicago, but that's the last time they play a winning team all season. Can you say 11-5? And who are you gonna say is better, Jacksonville? Cincy? Kansas City? C'mon.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars (7). I'll give them a mulligan (correct usage? I hate golf.) for the Texans. I guess they just can't beat them. But with four more games against actual playoff contenders they better sac it up. And put Byron Leftwich back ion the game. He's your franchise QB, for Christ's sake.

9. Philadelphia Eagles (unranked). Talk about streaky. Three wins in a row, three losses in a row, now a blowout of Washington. They go on the road to all three NFC Least foes in a row in December, but I kind of like their chances. Of course, that road trip is sandwiched between Indy and Carolina on one side and Atlanta on the other.

10. New Orleans Saints (unranked). This list is pretty sad, but so is the NFL elite level. These guys will still probably make the playoffs, but that's because their division insists on mediocrity and underwhelming performance. And Bush is getting better. Did you see him leap on Sunday? Ridiculous.

I'll be back, refreshed and ready to tackle the key matchups by Thursday. Five games between winning teams coming up, and I'll probably throw in my two cents as soon as I can convince myself that the 49ers are going to beat Seattle. Don't worry, I'll have at least five reasons. Go Niners!