Man oh man. Before the outcome of the Kansas/Davidson game was determined, my ESPN bracket was in the 99.7 percentile range. With all the top seeds now officially in the Final Four, I'm still at 98.1 percent.
Oh yeah, and I spent a total of about 15 minutes filling it out. How did it happen? I just followed a few simple rules.
1. Start with conventional wisdom.
ESPN lets you pre-popluate your bracket with predictions from some of their top NCAA experts. I used these as a starting point in order to get a frame of reference, and as a way from keeping my picks from getting too out-of-hand.
2. Pick a few early-round upsets, but not in a way that blows up your bracket.
You have to go out on a limb and pick a few upsets in order to differentiate yourself from the pack. But keep them fairly reasonable, and limit your Sweet 16 surprises to just a few, so that you're not screwed for the entire tournament when you're wrong.
In my case I had the fortunate pick of West Virginia over Duke (not a shocker - Duke was overseeded this year), and just plain lucked out with Western Kentucky (Go Hilltoppers!) - I had a hunch UConn would lose fairly early, and I was right.
3. Hedge your bets in the middle rounds.
The further you get in the tournament, the more each pick counts point-wise. So try not to get TOO cute once you get past the Sweet 16. I never would have predicted FOUR number 1 seeds in the Final Four this year, but the field did seem a bit lopsided this time around - UNC and UCLA just seemed like locks, for example.
I actually picked Wisconsin over Kansas to get into the Final Four mainly because I figured one of the top seeds had to lose. In fact if Davidson had managed to pull an upset today my ranking would probably be 99.999999 percent, since all of the Kansas folks would have been knocked out. Oh well...
4. Cross your fingers and hope for the best!
At this point it's probably going to be hard for me to move up much further in the rankings, since no Final Four scenario from here on out can be TOO far-fetched - everybody's a number 1 seed now, after all.
Having UNC win it all at this point probably is a pretty common pick. Having them do it against Memphis (rather than UCLA) might differentiate this somewhat.
We'll see what happens from here on out. UNC over Memphis 89-84 baby!