Yes it's almost Melbourne Cup Day and the nation and the world will stop to watch Australia's greatest horse race. The Horse Racing In Australia website will once again have the exclusive services of professional race tipster Jason Di Lizio, who will be providing his expert feature form and selections for the big race and all the other feature races taking place on the day.
Jason has been in fine form as usual, with his all of his provided racing information this spring. Below is a copy of his feature form and selections information for yesterday's VRC Derby Day program and you can gain this same feature form and selections information covering this years Melbourne Cup and all other feature races on the massive Flemington program, on the Horse Racing In Australia website at: http://www.horseracinginaustralia.com from this Monday evening the 3rd of November.
Jason Di Lizio's VRC Derby Day Feature Form and Selections From Saturday November 1st:
VRC Derby day is regarded as the best day of racing anywhere in Australia in a season and the fields this year do not disappoint. Three Group 1 races on the card highlighted by the time honoured VRC Derby and the Mackinnon Stks. The Saab Quality is always an important lead-up to the Melbourne Cup, while the list of past winners of the Salinger reads a who's who of all-time great sprinters. It will be a great day of racing, here's my preview and selections.
Race 1: The Maribyrnong Plate is a Group 3 race for 2 year olds run at set weights over 1000 metres and has been raced since 1871 and always brings together a talented bunch of youngsters. Past winners of the race include Heroic, Vain, Baguette, Testa Rossa and Bel Esprit.
1 Major Rocketman: first starter has drawn the inside and gets a chance with the scratchings
2 Zaffaan: first starter from astute yard and has produced some top class 2yos in this race, keep safe
3 Our Joan Of Arc: nice win on debut then didn't get the clearest of run to the line last start, looks to have some class and will be tough to beat
4 Noesis: Scratched
5 Movie: Scratched
6 Happy Knockout: easily beaten on debut in a small field at Bendigo and looks up against it here
7 Dawned: owned by Patinack Farm and would prefer to see before I can tip her
8 Seduced: well bred filly trained by Lee Freedman, she is the unknown quantity in the race and she could spring a surprise
We have small field to lineup down the straight in the first with a couple of scratchings. Our Joan Of Arc now looks to be the top pick with race experience giving her an advantage here while first starters Zaffaan and Seduced must be respected.
Top Selection: 3 Our Joan Of Arc
Main Danger: 2 Zaffaan
Value Runner: 8 Seduced
Race 2: The Group 3 Carbine Club Stks raced over 1600m for 3yos run at set weights plus penalties. The race has been won by some handy horses in the past including Submariner, Saintly, Voting, Antiquity and Over.
1 Millbank: has won his last two starts in good fashion and looks to have ability, question mark going up sharply in distance but has class on his side
2 Dr Doute's: has drawn awkwardly but will be hoping to get closer to the fence in a smaller field here, his win two starts ago at this track was impressive and the distance looks to suit, genuine winning hope
3 Caymans: wasn't far off them last start and will be better for the run, he has drawn wide here but looks a talented galloper and will be there on the line
4 Trustus: is dropping back in distance here where he has led them up without going on with it, he is drawn well here to jump straight to the front again but may struggle to hold them out in the straight
5 Georgia's Boy: can put in a good performance at times but has questionable form in this class and seems to have place claims at best
6 Nato: got well back and didn't run on last start, he will appreciate the wide open spaces of Flemington and with some early speed he should be coming home hard, keep safe
7 Lucky Thunder: wasn't a bad run two starts ago behind Whobegotyou before a fair run in weaker company last start, he will also like the big track here and could be the knockout
8 Infatuation: looks like the distance here will suit but was well beaten by Dr Doute's two starts ago and might be a class below these, place chance
9 Grand Couture: won easily at Bendigo last start and is from astute yard, this looks to be beyond it but it would take a brave man to right off a Lee Freedman-trained youngster
10 Taameer: went back last start and didn't make much of an impression, if she can go forward and sit just off the pace she will have a chance here to challenge at the top of the straight and be tough to beat
There should be a nice tempo from the start here with some early speed which looks like it will set it up for Dr Doute's and Caymans to fight it out. Taameer will need luck but is adaptable and can figure here while Lucky Thunder, Nato and Trustus will be coming home hard and could surprise.
Top Selection: 2 Dr Doute's
Main Danger: 3 Caymans
Value Runner: 10 Taameer
Race 3: The Saab Quality is a Group 3 race held under open handicap conditions, for horses aged 4 years old and upwards, over a distance of 2500m and has been run since 1869. It is a guide to Melbourne Cup chances and is even the last opportunity for some runners to get into the Cup field. Past winners include Reckless, Think Big and Brew and the race is famous for a triple dead-heat in 1956.
1 Light Vision: has been racing in terrific form and will be in this for a long way, he was wide last start and had excuses, he has drawn well and will be up on a sluggish pace and tough to run down
2 Newport: good win two starts ago and was disadvantaged last start with the big weight, looks better suited here and will give this a shake from the good draw
3 Get Up Jude: got a long way back last start and never got into it, his form over 2400m is sound and he shouldn't be too far off them, watch for him storming home late and be hard to hold out
4 Sentire: one paced stayer will appreciate the drop in weight but is better suited in the country cups
5 Capecover: last three runs have been average and is coming off a fair effort chasing Reggie in the Moe Cup, he has drawn well and won over this distance, keep safe
6 Largo Lad: is running out of chances, will be improved from his fair run last start and gets the luxury of the inside draw but I am prepared to risk again
7 Glistening: won over this track and distance three starts ago but his two runs since have been ordinary and will need a big turnaround to figure in the finish
8 Moatize: keeps promising to produce something but keeps taking punters money, he ran on well last start in the Geelong Cup, has the Bart Cummings polish and will like the big straight here, tread wearily
9 Book Of Kells: distance is a query and looks to be a class below these
10 Chiefcomingfirst: heads south from Brisbane where his form is ordinary, no thanks
11 More Oxygen Please: aiming high here and hard to have
There are eight runners looking to win this race to sneak into the Melbourne Cup field but whoever wins will need to be ultra impressive to come into Cup calculations. Light Vision will be on the speed and will be very tough to run down, Newport was grinding home well in the Moonee Valley Cup and should sit midfield in running while Get Up Jude, Capecover, Moatize and Largo Lad will be the backmarkers hoping the leaders go hard in front, which is unlikely.
Top Selection: 1 Light Vision
Main Danger: 2 Newport
Value Runner: 3 Get Up Jude
Race 4: The Wakeful Stakes is a Group 2 race for three-year-old fillies run under set weights with penalties over 2000m and has been run since 1932. The race is considered the main lead in to the VRC Oaks, with 13 fillies winning the Wakeful Stakes and the VRC Oaks in the same year since 1978. Past winners include Chicquita, Wenona Girl, Light Fingers, Sheraco, Imposera, Kensington Palace, Grand Archway and more recently, Tuesday Joy.
1 Oval Affair: has always raced like a middle distance horse and this looks ideal, both of her career wins have been at this track and she's racing well but has to overcome the wide draw, eachway claims
2 Sparks Fly: consistent galloper hasn't been far away in good company, hasn't had clear running room in the straight at her last two starts and if she gets to the outside in the straight she will be flying home
3 Miss Scarlatti: classy galloper kept chasing leader home last start, she has drawn fairly but looks well placed here to get a good run and be tough to beat
4 Bauble: good win last start but has drawn terribly, she is stepping up in class and distance here and will need some luck but can't be underestimated
5 Glowlamp: has been gallantly chasing home Samantha Miss several times this prep and is coming off a nice run in the 1000 Guineas, drawn well and is facing her easiest opponents for awhile
6 Kimillsy: had a nice run from a good drawn last start in the 1000 Guineas but failed to run on, drawn well here and will race on the speed but might find the trip too long
7 Estee: won last start over this distance after she controlled the race in front, she is well bred, well drawn and if she gets a soft lead again she will be tough to run down
8 Testa Monte: consistent filly hasn't missed a place in seven starts, ran on well last start after an unsuitable tempo in front and will appreciate the big straight here, genuine winning chance
9 Tobouggie Woogie: has been running on strong in her last two starts and the distance won't worry, she will get back from the wide draw but will need luck, place chance
10 Arms Wide Open: hasn't troubled them in last few starts in similar company and will struggle here
11 Think Money: still a maiden but hit line well behind Estee last start, she will be hitting the line hard and with any luck she could spring a surprise and break her maiden status here
12 Rocha: last two runs have been fair but looks out of her depth here
13 Poco Gusto: was well beaten last start by Estee and will be again here
14 Allez Wonder: unplaced in five starts and will remain so after six starts
15 Freedom March: drawn well but will fail to add to the $1240 prizemoney she has previously won
A tough race here with plenty of genuine winning hopes. Estee and Kimillsy look the only early leaders and if they get left alone in front they will be hard to run down. Miss Scarlatti has class on her side and will be chasing hard while Sparks Fly and Bauble will need some luck from their awkward barrier but only need a touch of luck to figure in the finish. Tobouggie Woogie and Testa Monte are both outsiders but could be thereabouts with any luck.
Top Selection: 2 Sparks Fly
Main Danger: 7 Estee/3 Miss Scarlatti
Value Runner: 8 Testa Monte
Race 5: The Coolmore Stud Stakes (or the Ascot Vale Stks as I like to call it) is a Group 1 for three year olds run at set weights over 1200 metres and has been run since 1933 (but was not run between
1966-68 when it changed from being a race for 2yos to a race for 3yos). The race has been won by greats such as Royal Gem, Comic Court, Vain, Manikato, Rose Of Kingston, Campaign King, Zeditave, Our Maizcay, Encosta De Lago and Weekend Hussler.
1 Von Costa De Hero: is dropping back in distance from 1600m where he seems much more suited, his run in the Caulfield Guineas was good but was simply outclassed by the winner, he is always around the money and if he can get some early speed up front, he will be storming home
2 All American: is also dropping back in distance from the Caulfield Guineas where he was well beaten but looks more suited to the sprint distances than the mile, he has drawn well and will race handy but will need to be at his best to hold them out
3 Wilander: stablemate to All American looks to be a deadset sprinter, coming off a very good win in the Schillaci at WFA in open company and that form has since been franked by the win of the second horse Lucky Secret last week, he will be there for a long way but question mark will be over the last 50m
4 Tindal: consistent galloper is racing well and dropping back from 1400m, he has won two from two at this track but looks more suited to bowling along in front in a mile race than trying to lead some real speedsters here, may find the early pace too much but has place claims
5 Captain Fantastic: has had a freshen since well beaten last start in a battling effort, has struggled in weaker company than this and can't have him here
6 Northern Meteor: very talented youngster that has untapped potential, comes into this on the back of two easy wins over this distance where he broke the track record on each occasion, he has genuine speed to burn and trialed brilliantly down the straight during the week, the one to beat
7 Fist Of Fury: has won both of his two race starts to date and was impressive over this distance last start, this is by far a much tougher assignment but could step up to the mark, keep safe
8 Portland: failed dismally behind arguably the best 3yo in Brisbane three starts ago before winning the last two on the trot including a nice 4L win last start but they've been in pretty weak company and this is a big step up, place chance
9 Impressive Eagle: her last two runs have been in good company and she has hit the line very well both times, she will sit back off the speed and wait for her opportunity and will be flying home late, genuine winning chance
Northern Meteor should have enough early speed to lead these early, the jockey will give him a couple of hits across the rump at the clock tower and he will be very tough to run down. Wilander did a great job to run down the smart Lucky Secret last start and looks the main danger. Von Costa De Hero and Impressive will get back and if the leaders get tired on the line, they will be storming home. Fist Of Fury and Portland are the unknown factors in the race and could sneak a place.
Top Selection: 6 Northern Meteor
Main Danger: 3 Wilander
Value Runner: 1 Von Costa De Hero
Race 6: The LKS Mackinnon Stakes is a Group 1 race over 2000 metres and is race under WFA conditions. Previously known as the Melbourne Stakes the race was re-named after a former VRC chairman L.K.S. Mackinnon in 1936 but has been run since 1869 when it was first won by Glencoe. Only one horse, Tranquil Star, has won the race three times, in 1942, 1944 and 1945. Some of the biggest names in racing have won this event including Phar Lap (twice), Peter Pan (twice), Ajax, Rising Fast (twice), Comic Court (twice), Tulloch, Sky High, Rain Lover, Leilani, Rubiton, Empire Rose, Better Loosen Up, Let's Elope, All Our Mob, Lonhro and Desert War.
1 Sirmione: the winner of this race last year comes into this on the back of four runs this campaign where he hasn't been beaten by a long way but he hasn't threatened the placegetters either, got too far back in the Cox Plate last start and was never a chance but will like the open spaces of Flemington and can't be underestimated
2 Our Smoking Joe: ran on well in the Coongy and looks to be well placed here, he likes this track and distance and showed enough last start to suggest he could be a danger here against opposition looking for more distance, genuine place chance
3 Theseo: had his chance when pushed forward in the Cox Plate last start, although I think he's a query over this trip at WFA he has drawn ideally and looks the only likely leader and I am getting a sense of dA(c)jA vu about this when I think back to Desert War a few years ago, he will give this a shake
4 Ice Chariot: ran a good third last start coming from well back in the Moonee Valley Cup and will love the big Flemington track but this trip is a little short for what he's looking for and he's not suited at WFA, look for him winding up on the outside at the finish and he could sneak a place
5 Rampant Lion: he was racing well over this distance during the Winter Carnival at WFA but this is far tougher here, his form this time in has been ordinary and it would be an upset if he got up here
6 Viewed: got well back last start in the Caulfield Cup where he wasn't able to fully extend, he is a handicapper and isn't suited here but will get back and be storming home in preparation for the Melbourne Cup
7 Littorio: impressive winner of the Turnbull Stks two starts ago followed that with a solid effort in the Caulfield Cup last start, he is more suited here as he looks to be a Flemington horse, he will be warming up late and although he is a major chance here, keep a watch on him from a Cup point of view
8 Red Ruler: ran a very good second two starts back in the Kelt Stks in NZ before running a great race in the Caulfield Cup where he stuck to the inside and didn't get a clear and should've finished very close to the winner, he has drawn well here and if he gets any luck in running he will be there at the finish
9 Barbaricus: snuck into the Caulfield Cup field last start as an emergency and ran a huge race, he went forward early from the wide gate and kept on finding when the leaders folded in the straight, that was under handicap conditions and he's not suited here at WFA, place chance again
10 Zagreb: Scratched
11 Arlington: stepping up in distance from 1400m and from a 2MW race where he was easily beaten, although the horse has shown ability, that's not good form for a race like this
12 Princess Coup: was given a huge chance last start in the Cox Plate and failed but forget she went around as she was given one of the most unimaginative rides I have ever seen, with the appointment of C.Newitt here she will get a chance to redeem herself, she will get a lovely run from the good draw and expect to see the real Princess Coup here
There's not much early speed here with many of the runners being trained for the Melbourne Cup and will be trying to relax in the run. I think this can play into Theseo's hands, he can go forward and dictate tactics as Maldivian in the Cox Plate and if he can kick a couple of lengths clear at the top of the straight, he will be hard to catch. Sirmione, Littorio, Ice Chariot and Princess Coup will like the open spaces of Flemington but might got get the speed up front to be able to catch the leaders. Red Ruler has drawn perfectly and if he can take a handy position, he will be there on the line.
Top Selection: 3 Theseo
Main Danger: 12 Princess Coup
Value Runner: 8 Red Ruler
Race 7: The Victoria Derby is a Group 1 race for three-year-old horses run over a distance of 2500 metres. First run in 1855, the first three editions were won by fillies but the last time a filly won was in 1923 when Frances Tressady claimed victory. In its history, only one horse has ever won the Victoria Derby more than once. Fireworks accomplished the feat, winning back-to-back runnings in November 1867 and again in 1868 after a change of the race date to New Year's day. Between 1931 and 1956 geldings were not permitted to compete.
Three horses made their racing debut with a win in the Victoria Derby. In 1883, the New Zealand-bred horse Martini Henry won the Victoria Derby in his racing debut. It did not happen again for another 107 years when Fire Oak won in 1990 and then two years later, Redding in 1992. Many great racehorses have won this time-honoured event including Phar Lap, Hall Mark, Comic Court, Tulloch, Sky High, Tobin Bronze, Taj Rossi, Dulcify, Mahogany, Blevic and Nothin Leica Dane.
1 Whobegotyou: one of the most dominant 3yos in many has been very impressive in beating his rivals in his last three runs, regular Feature Form subscribers have backed him in his last three runs as he has been 'Top Selection' each time and I don't see why we should jump off now, he looks too good for them
2 Carnero: I'm a fan of this horse and he can be forgiven his last start failure as he had to go forward from the wide draw which is against his regular racing pattern, he has drawn well here and with the blinkers going on, he could be the smoky at nice odds
3 Rebel Raider: decent run last start in the Geelong Classic but failed to go on, he has been well held previously in this company and looks like he'll do it tough again especially from the outside draw
4 Pre Eminence: controlled the race from start to finish in the Norman Robinson and looks like the extra distance here will be ideal, he might get some stiff opposition for the early lead here but he has drawn the inside and if they go slow down the back, he will be tough to run down
5 The Tiger: is coming off a nice win in the Geelong Classic after he jumped straight to the lead and controlled the pace, he will find it tough to cross Pre Eminence from the awkward draw but if he can settle and they don't get into a speed battle, he too will be tough to beat
6 Wookah: slightly unlucky last start in the Norman Robinson where he was ridden a little quieter than normal, has drawn an awkward alley here again but if he can get some cover in running and settle, he could figure in the finish
7 Tuscany View: never really threatened last start in the Geelong Classic but ran a fair race, his form before that wasn't very good and he'll need a big turnaround to win here
8 Buffett: ran a big race at nice odds last start behind Whobegotyou in the AAMI Vase, that run was a little surprising but if he can continue to improve he will be another genuine place chance here
9 Larry's Never Late: gets well back in his races and has a big finish, his last run was better than it looks when he made good ground late considering Pre Eminence controlled the pace and led all the way, he is bred to run the distance and expect him to be closing in on them on the line
10 St Culpe: hasn't showed anything in four runs this prep and I can't have him
11 Orca: surprised a few with his third behind Whobegotyou last week at nice odds, he has drawn wide here and will need luck but could sneak a place again
12 Relentless Lad: has been racing on unsuitable wet tracks of late and his form may look worse than it should, he led them up and was run down late in a much weaker race last start but that was over 2250m and he will be fitter for it, he has drawn poorly but I don't think he's the worst in the field
13 Paddy O'Reilly: has only placed third three times in six starts, he is coming off a solid effort in the Norman Robinson when he kept chasing home the leader, he has promised a lot but delivered a little and must be taken on trust
14 My Scotsgrey: not too sure about his NZ form but his last run in the Geelong Classic was very good as he got right back to last and kept making ground to run second in a race dominated by the leader and didn't suit the backmarkers, he will get plenty of room to wind up here and could be the knockout horse
15 Flash'N'Dough: will remain a maiden for at least one more start
No prizes for tipping Whobegotyou on top here as he will be a deservedly short priced favourite. There could be value to be found with the placegetters here and we could try and jag the trifecta or even first four. Carnero will get a lovely run from the good draw and the blinkers going on will help while My Scotsgrey was a huge run last start, he is lightly raced so will keep improving and must be included. Buffett was a nice run last start behind Whobegotyou and could sneak a place while Larry's Never Late has been hitting the line well and can't be left out. Pre Eminence and The Tiger will be the leaders and if they get a breather midrace, they could hold on to run a place.
Top Selection: 1 Whobegotyou
Main Danger: 2 Carnero
Value Runner: 14 My Scotsgrey
It might pay to stand out Whobegotyou in a trifecta or first four and throw in 2,4,5,8,9,14 in an order that tickles your fancy. This will be my Trifecta/First 4.
1st: 1 Whobegotyou
2nd: 2 Carnero/14 My Scotsgrey
3rd: 2 Carnero/8 Buffett/9 Larry's Never Late/14 My Scotsgrey
4th: 2 Carnero/4 Pre Eminence/5 The Tiger/8 Buffett/9 Larry's Never Late/14 My Scotsgrey
Race 8: The Myer Classic is a Group 1 race held under WFA conditions, for fillies and mares aged 3 years old and upwards, over a distance of 1600m. The race was first run in 1988 and was originally known as the Honda Legend Stks but has undertaken many name changes since that time and is registered as the Empire Rose Stks. It has been won by a few handy fillies and mares including Excited Angel, Bonanova, Noircir, Miss Zoe, Lotteria and Divine Madonna.
1 Forensics: top class mare whose two runs in this time in have been very good, she has drawn well, is well suited at set weights and will be running on strong, whatever holds her out will win
2 Mimi Lebrock: is in great form and can be forgiven her failure two starts ago when had no luck, she has drawn poorly and will go forward but might be struggling the last 100m, place chance
3 Absolut Glam: Scratched
4 Serious Speed: tough mare hasn't been far from them this prep, a little disappointing last start when had every opportunity and thought she should've done better, place chance on that effort
5 Gallant Tess: has had a fairly tough campaign and didn't come on last start in the Cox Plate when she sat midfield, might be looking for the paddock at this stage and I'm prepared to risk
6 Absolutelyfabulous: has closed in well on the line in last two starts and will get a lovely run from the good draw, there's a question mark at her running the trip but I think she will and be mighty competitive
7 Translate: drawn well but hasn't really threatened to win in her last few runs and will need luck, must be taken on trust
8 Bellini Rose: last two runs have been very good culminating in a good win in the Blazer Stks, she will go forward and race on the pace but she has an awkward alley and will need luck, place chance maybe
9 Tan Tat De Lago: her two runs this prep have been very good and she will reaching peak here, she has drawn wide and will need a touch of luck but she will be tough to hold out
10 El Daana: her two runs this campaign have been fair but she will appreciate the set weight conditions here, she has been freshened up for this and the trip looks ideal, genuine eachway chance at nice odds
11 Autumn Jeuney: ran well two runs back in the Stock Stks but didn't come into it last start, this is harder and she looks a class below these
12 Trick Of Light: first-up over a mile might worry some but she has a great chance here, she goes great fresh, loves this trip and will be hitting the line hard, great value chance
13 Dane Julia: consistent mare is never far from them on the line, the distance looks ideal and she has drawn well but I would've liked to have seen her win by now, keep safe
14 Bernicia: lightly raced mare looks to have a touch of class, her run last start was only fair but she will improve on that run and will like the wide open spaces of the track, nice eachway chance
15 Prima Nova: handy mare whose dam won this race, her last two runs have been good and will be improved on those runs, she has drawn wide but her class is the query, place maybe
16 Rose Of Cimmaron: Scratched
A very tough race with many genuine winning chances here and punters will be backing numerous runners. Forensics was very good last start when held up in the straight but hit the line very well, the main concern will be the lack of pace up front. Mimi Lebrock, Bellini Rose and Tan Tat De Lago will all race forward and could be tough to run down. Horses like Dane Julia, Serious Speed, Trick Of Light and Absolutelyfabulous can make good use of their good draw and take a handy position and could win at nice odds.
Top Selection: 1 Forensics
Main Danger: 9 Tan Tat De Lago
Value Runner: 6 Absolutelyfabulous/12 Trick Of Light
Race 9: The Salinger Stakes is a Group 2 open handicap race run over a distance of 1200 metres. The race was first run in 1960 and was named the Craven A Stks and only two horses have managed to win back-to-back races, River Rough in 1983-84 and Planet Ruler 1989-1990. This race has been won by turf superstars including Vain, Maybe Mahal, Special, Hareeba, Gold Ace, Notoire, Pharein, Takeover Target and Dance Hero.
1 Bon Hoffa: winner of the Bobbie Lewis first-up over this trip, ran well second-up before failing in the Toorak Hcp, class runner and is back to suitable trip here, will be thereabouts
2 Sunburnt Land: racing in very good form and is going for fifth win in a row, he races very well down the straight and is the one to beat
3 Swick: ran a huge race last start in the Gilgai over this trip and was unlucky not to win, he can mix his form but when he is on he can produce a devastating sprint but will need luck, keep safe
4 Valedictum: last few runs have been and hit the line well in the Toorak Hcp last start, I would've thought the mile race next week would be his go rather than here
5 Publishing: his last two runs have been over this trip and he hasn't been far away on the line, this is similar company here and is not without a chance
6 Keen Commander: speedy type will inject plenty of early speed, he has been racing very well over 1100m in his two runs this campaign and will be struggling to hold out them out in the last 100m
7 Fighting Fund: coming off a nice effort first-up over 1100m, his second-up form isn't flash and might struggle to make an impression in this company
8 Hot Danish: top class mare rarely runs a bad race, was run down last in her first-up effort but gets to a more suitable distance here and gets in well at the weights, one of the main fancies
9 Fritz's Princess: came from well back first-up to produce a big win, she has a good second-up record and can produce a massive late sprint, watch for her weaving through the field late and diving at them
10 Nuclear Medicine: tough sprinter has won all before him in Brisbane before earning a shot at the big time here, he will go forward early but hasn't been put under much pressure before and may struggle
11 Great Is Great: hasn't won in a long time despite racing in weaker company than here, has had a change of trainer which can help sometimes but looks up against it here
12 Aichi: consistent young sprinter continues to take the next step each time he goes up in grade, he will be improved on last run and expect him to be there on the line
13 Biscayne Bay: two runs this time in have been good, he is a genuine sprinter and 1200m looks to be his limit in this company but you can't knock him on his last run
14 Bella Valentina: won impressively last start in Adelaide at WFA and gets in well here on the minimum, there is a question mark as to whether she's up to this class but she's not without a place chance
15 Kiloton: speedy customer failed last start on a wet track and over a mile, looks better suited here and will be up on the pace and he can't be taken lightly
There will be some nice speed on up front here which will suit get back runners such as Sunburnt Land, Swick, Hot Danish, Fritz's Princess and Aichi. Any of these runners can win this with some luck but it is hard to go past Sunburnt Land and Hot Danish. Bon Hoffa is nice odds, he has drawn well and will only need some luck to get off the fence in the straight to be in the finish.
Top Selection: 8 Hot Danish
Main Danger: 2 Sunburnt Land
Value Runner: 1 Bon Hoffa/9 Fritz's Princess
Race 10: The AAMI International Travel Insurance Stks is a Group 3 race run over 1400m.
1 Niconero: past his best and has to give his opposition weight, not racing well enough to trouble them here
2 El Cambio: won the Gilgai well first-up before slightly unlucky last start, he will be improved for the run but has drawn awkwardly and will need some luck, keep safe
3 Mr Baritone: backing up from good effort last week over 1200m, steps up to 1400m here which looks ideal and drops back from WFA but will need luck from the wide draw
4 Sniper's Bullet: picked up good ground late in his first-up run over this distance, he has drawn very poorly but will go back and need some luck but has class on his side and can't be taken lightly
5 Tears I Cry: his first two runs this prep were very good before failing in the Underwood Stks, has had a freshen up into this and although he may need the run for his target next week, perhaps a place chance
6 Blutigeroo: first-up run after a long layoff was no guide as he had a big weight over a short distance, this looks a better for him but I can't come into him here
7 Malcolm: good galloper can mix his form, hit the line very well two starts ago before failing on a wet track last start, he has won at his only start over this track and distance and can't be dismissed
8 Royal Discretion: won well last start after taken forward early from a wide draw, he will need to do the same here from barrier 17 and must be given a huge chance on his last run
9 Double Dare: handy galloper never got into it first-up and was doing his best work late over an unsuitable distance, will appreciate the Flemington track and the extra distance and will be working home nicely, one for the multiples
10 Pinnacles: has had to carry big weights this prep and kept closing in on them last start, has drawn the inside and will need luck but will take a handy position and is not without a chance
11 Stickpin: has been improving with every run this prep and just missed in similar field, doesn't have a great record at the track and will need luck from the draw
12 Turffontein: hasn't seen the running rail in his last few starts and doesn't look like he will again here, he's a class galloper and always puts in but will need luck
13 Helideck: had his chance last start behind Royal Discretion when given a nice ride on the inside, hasn't shown enough this prep to suggest he will trouble them here
14 All Silent: hit the line better than anything last start and arguably should've won with a smarter ride, hasn't raced in four weeks but will get a lovely run from the good draw and will be flying on the line
15 Falaise: has been racing in good form despite having to lug big weights, he has drawn well here and gets in well at the weights, the wide open spaces of Flemington will suit and has eachway claims
16 Friday Creek: one of the few leaders in the race was outgunned late last start when carrying WFA, drops a lot in weight here and might take some catching if left alone in front
17 Count To Zero: drawn in the carpark and isn't up to this class
18 Rightfully Yours: has won his last three starts well albeit in much weaker company, this distance looks ideal and he's won at the track but will need luck if he is to gain a start
19 Orbit Express: was racing well in the Winter Championships last prep but didn't show much first-up and will struggle here if he gets a start
20 Chasm: racing in good form and nearly got there last start behind Royal Discretion, has drawn fairly and if he gets a start he could give this a shake
You could make a case for why most of these runners can win and why they can't win here which will make life tough for punters. At first glance there doesn't look to be much early speed in this race, but there's a few horses who like to race in a forward position that have drawn wide which could create some speed. All Silent should get a lovely run from the good draw and if he can get a clear run in the straight, he will be tough to hold out. Turffontein, El Cambio and Royal Discretion are classy gallopers that will be looking to race in a forward position and they will need luck getting across, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see any of them sit wide all the way and still win this. Mr Baritone, Double Dare and Sniper's Bullet will get back and will be rattling home while Falaise and Pinnacles have drawn ideally to get a lovely run and could be the value runners.
Top Selection: 14 All Silent
Main Danger: 12 Turffontein
Value Runner: 9 Double Dare
Well that wraps up my Feature Form preview and selections for VRC Derby day this Saturday. It will be a great day of racing and even if you decide not to bet in every race (which is what I would recommend) make sure you still watch the all of the races and they'll be fantastic. But if you want to have a bet but Whobegotyou and Northern Meteor are too short, perhaps try an all-up with them into a nice value runner for a win or a place.
So sit back, relax and enjoy what will be a great day of racing and good luck, I hope we all back plenty of winners.
Happy Punting,
Jason Di Lizio
http://www.horseracinginaustralia.com
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