Who wins the NL East this year?
I have to stick with my Phillies.
Here's what Jayson Stark had to say...
If
Johan Santana was good enough to carry a team to a World Series by himself, the Twins would have played in about five of them already. But now that we've got that away, no sane human would dispute that Santana is a contract extension away from changing the face of the NL East.
Two days ago, the Phillies were the clear-cut favorites in this division. It's safe to say they aren't anymore. But does that mean the Mets are a lock? Not necessarily, according to the baseball men I surveyed in the last 24 hours.
The case for the Phillies
This may come as a shock to all residents of Queens, but we did find several bright, rational NL executives who still pick the Phillies.
Remember, they did outscore the Mets by 88 runs last year, whomped 82 more extra-base hits and drew 92 more walks. In fact, if you go around the diamond, how many positions are there where the Mets are definitively better than the Phillies? I'd give the Mets two -- third base and center field.
The Phillies also catch the ball better. And would it really surprise anybody if the Phillies' top two starters --
Cole Hamels and
Brett Myers -- won just as many games as Santana and
Pedro Martinez?
Finally, keep in mind the reason that one NL front-office man picked the Phillies -- depth. The Phillies were deep enough last year to survive injuries to Ryan Howard,
Chase Utley, Hamels, Myers,
Shane Victorino and Flash Gordon. And the Mets obliterated their system to make this deal, leaving them with "not much of an underbelly" if they have injuries. And everybody has injuries.
The case for the Mets
In case you hadn't noticed this, Santana is merely the best pitcher in the whole solar system. He's a franchise-changer, a season-changer, a league-changer.
Since 2003, the year he moved into the rotation, the Twins went 105-47 (.691) when he started, and only 335-323 (.509) when anybody else started. In other words, they played like a 112-win team when Santana pitched -- and like an 82-win team when anyone else pitched.
Now drop that guy into the middle of a team like the Mets -- a team that had an ERA a half-run lower than the Phillies' last year without him -- and you have a staff that one NL executive now ranks with the Padres' as potentially the best in the league.
The verdict
First off, just because we're having this fun little debate, it doesn't mean we're writing off the Braves. But the either-or format in the Hot Stove Heaters constitution means somebody has to get lopped off this discussion. So hold your e-mails. Thanks.
Now, back to the debate. I think this is a close call, but Santana represents such a gigantic upgrade over
Kyle Lohse,
Livan Hernandez or anyone else on the Mets' Plan B list (let alone their pre-Johan roster), he personally swings the balance of the division.
Just the fact that he's left-handed -- and last year had nearly twice as many strikeouts (62) as hits allowed (39) against left-handed hitters -- makes him Ryan Howard's and
Chase Utley's worst nightmare. Then add in the fact that the Mets didn't give up anyone of major significance in 2008, and the Mets have to be the pick. But feel free to differ.
That's why we're here.