It's easy to wax poetic about why your team of choice has high hopes for success in the 2008-9 season. When all you have to go on are the rosters on a piece of paper, everybody has an equal chance of being a winner.
As you probably well know however, hockey is not a game where everybody gets to be a winner. It's a hard-nosed game full of blood, sweat, and grit, and I feel that any preview that doesn't reflect this spirit does a disservice to hockey fans everywhere. So, having said that, here is my breakdown of why your team won't hoist Lord Stanley's cup at season's end. We'll start with the East Conference, and next week take a look at the West.
Atlantic Conference
Pittsburgh Penguins: As impressive as this team was in their run to the Stanley Cup, I think they still suffered for a lack of veteran leadership, especially compared to the seasoned Detroit team. Losing
Marian Hossa and
Ryan Malone was a big blow in this respect. If anybody seriously thinks that
Miroslav Satan is the same kind of offensive stud as
Marian Hossa, I've got some ocean front property to sell that you might be interested ina€¦
Philadelphia Flyers: This Flyers squad is young and excited about their prospects about making another run for the top of the Atlantic division. And while they do indeed show promise, there is no way in hell they are raising Lord Stanley's cup with
Martin Biron in net. The guy posted a .876 save percentage in the playoffs and will continue to be a liability in big game situations.
New Jersey Devils: The Devils' Stanley Cup formula used to be air-tight goaltending, excellent defense, and adequate offense. What happens when you remove excellent defense from that equation? Trouble, that's what. The Devils did shore up their offense, bringing in
Brian Rolston and
Bobby Holik to provide some leadership at center, but both players are on the tail end of their careers. They're still playoff bound, but probably lack the punch for a Cup run.
New York Rangers: The Rangers are going to have some trouble producing offense this year, despite the addition of Marcus Naslund. I think the boys in blue are banking on
Scott Gomez returning to form, which is far from a given in the void left by the departing
Jaromir Jagr. Until they can reliably produce offense on the power play, they are a first-round loser.
New York Islanders: This is a team that just transparently has no shot. They're still lacking a head coach, and their biggest offensive threats are the octogenarians
Doug Weight and
Bill Guerin. Goaltender
Rick DiPietro is back from surgery, just in time to continue to regret signing that ridiculous 15-year contract with the Isles. On the plus side, when you don't expect anything from a team, it's easy to be surprised!
Northeast
Boston Bruins: While they looked good late last season in the run-up to their spectacular loss to the Canadiens, the Bruins are far from a lock to reappear in the playoffs. With
Glen Murray finally hitting the road, a big part of their production in the front six is dependent on
Patrice Bergeron, who was limited to just 10 games last season. And free agent signing
Michael Ryder is coming off his worst season ever. Big question marks here.
Montreal Canadiens: People seem to be taking for granted the fact that
Alexei Kovalev can repeat his stellar 84 point performance from last year, but seem to forget that he managed just 47 points the year before. The Canadiens will likely make the playoffs with or without the old winger, but they have yet to be able to time their momentum to carry them through the playoffs.
Buffalo Sabres: After a disappointing 10th place finish last year, the Sabres are a big question mark. They don't score very much though, which is a concern in a conference full of flashy playmakers. They'll benefit from the return of
Teppo Numminen, but their defensive core doesn't help to generate many opportunities and will likely hold them back this year.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Yeah, this is what they're going to call a "rebuilding year." Their defensive core, in Kabrele, McCabe, and Kubina can all produce on the offensive side of the puck, but paradoxically, they don't have any forwards with 30 or more goals last season. Poor
Vesa Toskala is going to have his work cut out for him again this year in net as well.
Ottawa Senators: Like the Canadiens, the
Ottawa Senators are a tremendously talented team that just can't seem to put together any momentum towards the end of the year. Besides simply showing that they can win in the playoffs, the Sens are going to need to find a way to account for the loss of
Wade Redden back on the blueline, as well as pray that
Martin Gerber doesn't continue the downward trend he showed late last year.
Southeast
Florida Panthers: The decision to trade away star forward
Olli Jokinen wasn't entirely without merit, but it left the team without a consistent goal scoring threat. Hockey in South Florida is already a shaky proposition, but without a face for the organization (does Bouwmeester count?) to provide that spark, it could be a long year for the Panthers.
Washington Capitals: Former Caps netminder
Olaf Kolzig shouldered a lot of the blame for a poor defensive game in Washington last year. The truth of the matter is that Kolzig was a fall guy for a poor game plan, which saw the fast-paced Caps offense turtle any time they took the lead.
Jose Theodore won't fare any better than Olli did unless the Caps learn to stick with their guns and keep attacking.
Carolina Hurricanes: Carolina is betting the farm on goaltender
Cam Ward this year, taking it on faith that the young netminder will be able to improve the team's abysmal GAA. Ditching
John Grahame as a backup was a sound move, but young
Michael Leighton hasn't proven himself on the highest levels yet. Give the young duo another year to develop and they may be formidable, but this year isn't their's.
Atlanta Thrashers:
Ilya Kovalchuk remains the lone proven scoring threat for a Thrashers team still reeling from their collapse into obscurity last year. Their goaltending is mediocre at best and their defense gives up an inordinate number of shots. I'd be shocked if they even showed signs of climbing out of the basement in the Southeast.
Tampa Bay Lightning: The shakeups in Tampa this off-season were huge. They managed to coax Barry Melrose out of the broadcast booth to coach the team, and brought in a ton of new talent in
Ryan Malone,
Mark Recchi,
Michel Ouellet,
Gary Roberts, and
Olaf Kolzig, among others. They're basically throwing shit at the wall to see what sticks. Even assuming the team does gel, they have at least a year before they should be looking towards the Cup. Not this year guys.