In week 6 Denver was their own worst enemy. Turnovers and shoddy defense once again torpedoed a game that the Broncos could have and should have won. Denver lost to Jacksonville by a final of 24 - 17, and moved to 4 - 2 on the 2008 season. This week the Broncos travel to New England for a Monday night match up against a Patriots team that is having issues. My question this week is, are the Patriots so different than Denver right now?
Offense
At quarterback there is not much of a comparison.
Matt Cassel by all accounts is in a tough spot. Stepping in for one of the best quarterbacks in the last decade and for a team that has dominated over the same span is not easy. The fact is, he is no Brady and not Cutler either.
At running back It is an advantage for Pittman and Hall of Denver over
Sammy Morris and
Kevin Faulk of New England. Specific players aside, Denver has almost 200 yards more than New England this year so far. Denver just has a better overall running game, despite who is running.
The wide receiving corps at the moment may be equal, but barely. Denver has some injuries going in with
Eddie Royal,
Brandon Stokley questionable and tight end
Tony Scheffler doubtful for the game Monday. That leaves Brandon Marshall and
Darrell Jackson for Denver against
Randy Moss and
Wes Welker. The tight ends are basically the same on both ends. Without injuries it wouldn't be close, but with the status quo I call this a draw.
The offensive line is where Denver could really make a difference. They have given up a total of 2 sacks on the season versus 20 for the Patriots. Better run blocking and pass blocking for the Broncos makes this a no-brainer.
Overall I give the offensive advantage to Denver.
Defense
On defense these teams are actually pretty equal, and that is a little scary as a Broncos fan. Denver has better corner backs in Bly and Bailey than the Patriots do in former Bronco Deltha O'Neal and rookie (and CU Buff)
Terrence Wheatley. Linebacker might be the only other position where I feel Denver has a slight advantage, and I attribute that to DJ Williams who is playing outstanding. Both teams have pass rushing issues, and this will be a true test for New England as Denver has a pretty dominant offensive line this year. Denver showed some flashes against Tampa Bay then let us all down again last week against Jacksonville while New England made the goober in San Diego look like Joe Montana last week.
I call this a very slight advantage in favor of Denver, New England has some injury issues on defense and age playing a part.
Special Teams
Matt Prater is 13/14 on the year and
Stephen Gostkowski is 11/12 in field goals. In terms of punting, Denver has a slight advantage in net yards but it is negligible as they both are in the same ballpark in terms of punts within the 20. New England actually has a decent punt and kick return game, and that could spell trouble for Denver. For that reason, because I have seen Denver give up the big plays on special teams, I give the special teams advantage to the Patriots.
Prediction
In my preseason prediction post I picked Denver to win this game. This was before Brady was hurt, and I based in on the fact that Denver plays the Patriots tough usually. As of today the Pats are favored by 3 at home to win, and this could very well be a Kansas City type trap game for Denver. These teams are not that far apart in terms of where their troubles are actually.
As I pledged last week after flip-flopping, I am sticking with my preseason picks from here on out no matter what visual trap the Broncos tempt me with. That being said, the Broncos will move to 5 - 2 on the season and win this game 38 - 17.