CFL best bets: Backing a quarterback bounce-back

Few people gave the two-win Calgary Stampeders any chance of beating the undefeated Toronto Argonauts when the teams met in Week 9. But Argos quarterback Chad Kelly was forced out of the game with a second-quarter ankle injury, and the Stamps subsequently rolled to a 20-7 victory. It figures to be much more of an uphill battle in Friday night’s rematch, and playing from behind only stands to benefit our top prop:

The bet: Over 216½ passing yards for Calgary Stampeders quarterback Jake Maier (DraftKings)

Partly because he was the lone CFL signal-caller to have started 10 games, Maier entered Week 12 as the league leader in passing yards. Yet he hasn’t cracked 200 in any of the last three, and his combined output over that stretch narrowly tops the 450 yards he threw for in an overtime loss to the Ottawa Redblacks in Week 7.

Whereas game script was a limiting factor three weeks ago, Maier was most recently hampered by the same blustery conditions that helped make our bet an easy winner. He was able to complete just 11 of his 24 pass attempts as Calgary suffered a one-point loss to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. Thankfully, light winds are expected in Toronto this evening.

The Argos allow 296 passing yards per game, and opponents complete a whopping 74% of their attempts, which is easily the highest mark in the league. The only time an opposing team didn’t throw for more than 275 yards against this defense, Maier was the quarterback.

Tonight clearly offers a great opportunity to boost his stats.