10 college basketball programs on the rise, 10 on the decline

Beginning with the 2006-07 season, Alabama has reached the NCAA Tournament just twice. However, the Crimson Tide have won at least 18 games in each of the last five seasons. New coach Nate Oats just won 32 games at Buffalo and now gets to coach one of the best players in the country in sophomore guard Kira Lewis Jr. (13.5 points per game in 2018-19). West Virginia graduate-transfer James Bolden (39.9 percent career three-point shooter) and potential SEC star in long distance John Petty Jr., should offer solid support.

While Indiana severely underachieved last season (19-16) with big talent in Romeo Langford and Juwan Morgan, there's a real possibility that it will miss the NCAA Tournament for a fourth consecutive year. There is talent with De’Ron Davis, Devonte Green and Al Durham, but the Hoosiers have not stepped up under Archie Miller, and they might not ever.

Arkansas is another SEC squad hoping to benefit from a coaching change. With Eric Musselman now in charge of the program, Arkansas seems to have the personnel that can succeed in its new coach's fast-paced system. Sophomore Isaiah Joe (13.9 ppg, 41.4 3-point field-goal percentage) is a name to remember. What the Razorbacks will lack in height, they seem poised to make up for with speed in transition.

Sophomore Tyrese Haliburton (43.4 3-point percentage) is an expected lottery pick, but after that the Cyclones don't seem too intimidating. Iowa State returned to the NCAA Tournament after missing out in 2018, but it needs to prove it is more than a one-man show...and that it can relive the glory that resulted in six consecutive seasons with an appearance in the Big Dance prior to 2018.

A solid group is back from last season's squad that won 23 games but fell short of reaching the NCAA Tournament. The Buffaloes don't expect to be shut out of the Dance again after being picked second in the Pac-12 preseason poll. The versatile Tyler Bey (13.6 ppg, 9.9 rebounds per game) and McKinley Wright (13.0 ppg 4.9 rpg and 4.8 assists per game) return as does 7-footer Dallas Walton, who missed all last season with a knee injury. 

With longtime coach John Beilein now in the NBA and beloved Fab Fiver Juwan Howard the new coach, a third straight 30-win season likely is not in the cards for the Wolverines. No returning player averaged double-digit points last season, but the potential seems there. Whether it's enough for a fifth consecutive NCAA Tournament stint remains to be seen.

The Illini have not been to the NCAA Tournament since 2013 and have had only one winning season over the last four. However, they boast one of the nation's top all-around players in sophomore Ayo Dosunmu (13.8 ppg), and two solid contributors in Trent Frazier (13.7 ppg) and big man Giorgi Bezhanishvili (12.5 ppg, 5.2 rpg). Illinois won only 12 games last season, but three came against Michigan State, Maryland and Ohio State, so the potential for a serious turnaround seems possible.

Losing the likes of Jordan Murphy, Amir Coffey and Dupree McBrayer from a team that reached the second round of the NCAA Tournament in 2018-19 hurts. While there is some intriguing talent in 6-foot-10 sophomore Daniel Oturu (10.8 ppg, 7.0 rpg) and Pitt transfer Marcus Carr, the Gophers look like a team that's more a work in progress than one capable of making two straight trips to the Big Dance for the first time since 2009 and 2010.

Complete with the best recruiting class in the nation, expectations are seriously high at Memphis. At the top of Penny Hardaway's prized recruiting class are 7-foot-1 James Wiseman and versatile forward Precious Achiuwa, who hope they can lead the Tigers to their first NCAA Tournament since the 2013-14 season. While Memphis should succeed in the American Athletic Conference, just how far it goes from there depends on how dominant these youngsters turn out to be.

Exit Eric Musselman. Enter Steve Alford. Hiring the latter was certainly a bold move, but is it really what's best for this program? The Wolf Pack have averaged almost 29 wins over the previous three seasons, but the Martin brothers and Jordan Caroline are gone. Making the NCAA Tournament appears to be a chore, so maybe the NIT? It's uncertain if the drop-off will be limited to this season or could linger.

For the second time in three years, the Bears are the preseason favorites to win the Missouri Valley. However, Missouri State has essentially been a .500 squad each of the last three seasons and hasn't reached the NCAAs since 1999. So why now? Because it has high-level talent in reigning Valley Newcomer of the Year forward Tulio Da Silva (14.3 ppg, 7.4 rpg), senior guard Keandre Cook (12.8 ppg) and West Virginia graduate transfer Lamont West (11.1 ppg).

After returning to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2015, there is plenty to rebuild within the Red Storm program. Mike Anderson is the new boss, but stars Shamorie Ponds and Justin Simon are gone. LJ Figueroa (14.4 ppg, 6.4 rpg) and Mustapha Heron (14.6 ppg) are strong returners, but this is not an NCAA contender. And the youth doesn't scream promise at the moment.

Ohio State has reached the second round of the NCAA Tournament in each of the last two years, but these Buckeyes have the potential for a long run. Chris Holtmann made a great early impression with 45 wins in his first two seasons and now is armed with 6-9 Kaleb Wesson (14.6 ppg, 6.9 rpg) and one of the better recruiting classes in the country with guard D.J. Carton and forwards E.J. Liddell and Alonzo Gaffney.

It was 2016 when the Orange reached the national semifinals, but they have not gotten past the Sweet 16 in the three seasons since and failed to make the NCAA Tournament in 2017. Minus Tyus Battle, Syracuse simply making the tournament seems like a stretch this season. For as tough as the ACC is year-in, year out, it's unknown how much better the Orange will be in the immediate future.

With senior star Myles Powell (23.1 ppg, 44.7 field-goal percentage) leading the way, the Pirates hope this is a special season. They join Villanova as the preseason favorites in the Big East, and the good times could last beyond this season and Powell. Myles Cale (10.2 ppg) and 6-11 Sandro Mamukelashvili  (8.9 ppg, 7.8 rpg) are both juniors, and if they stick around they could provide a nice base for 2020-21.

Now, we're not talking total decline in Knoxville. However, it should be expected that after losing the stellar trio of Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield and Jordan Bone, the Volunteers will at least take a step back in 2019-20. Does that mean missing out on the NCAA Tournament? Perhaps, if things go seriously wrong. Lamonte Turner (11.0 ppg) and Jordan Bowden (10.6 ppg) return, and the presence of freshman guard Josiah-Jordan James makes 20 wins likely, but maybe not much more. 

Guard Sam Merrill (20.9 ppg, 46.1 field-goal percentage) should get some national Player of the Year consideration. The 7-foot sophomore Neemias Queta (11.8 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 2.4 blocks per game) is one of the more intriguing talents in the country. Utah State last made back-to-back NCAA Tournament trips in 2010 and '11. Together, Merrill and Queta have the Aggies thinking beyond just making that field. It might be Sweet 16 or bust. 

Sure, the Longhorns won the NIT last season, but that's not enough to keep coach Shaka Smart's seat from getting any less hotter. Texas has not won more than 21 games in Smart's first four seasons, and it's really uncertain if it can top that total in 2019-20. While the program isn't in a full-blown decline, it's certainly stagnant, with the arrow pointing slightly downward at the moment.

A 25-win season got VCU back into the Big Dance, and now it hopes to build on that strong campaign and begin another NCAA Tournament appearance streak. The Rams return their top four scorers from last season in Marcus Evans, De'Riante Jenkins, Issac Vann and Marcus Santos-Silva — all of whom averaged double-digit points. Davidson should also have a say in the Atlantic 10 race, but VCU is built like a squad that can make it to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.

Larry Krystkowiak's Utes are young — really young in some spots. While the future might look promising, the fact remains that a fourth consecutive season without a tournament appearance looks to be on the immediate horizon for Utah. Obviously, youth brings potential, but that development is also a bit of a wild card in terms of how quickly the program can regain national prominence.