Auburn basketball vs USC odds, notes, predictions

Originally posted on FanNation Auburn Daily
By Lance Dawe | Last updated 12/17/22

There is no reprieve for the Auburn Tigers.

After scraping by Georgia State on Wednesday night, it began to sink in that there are no more gimme games on the schedule.

That reality sets in with the Tigers' next opponent: The USC Trojans.

While not off to the hottest start, the Trojans poise several issues for Auburn that lead us to believe that this may be a bad matchup.

Here's a breakdown of Southern Cal:

Record: 8-3 (0-2 vs Quad 1, 1-1 vs Quad 3, 7-0 vs Quad 4)

Ranking: NET - No. 118, KenPom - No. 71, AP Top 25 - N/A, Torvik - No. 65

Stats (via ESPN):

PPG: 71.5

RPG: 36.5

APG: 14.8

FG%: 45.7

3PT%: 32.2

Individual Leaders:

PPG: G Boogie Ellis - 14.1

RPG: G/F Drew Peterson - 7.9

APG: G/F Drew Peterson - 6.1

SPG: F Kobe Johnson - 2.1

BPG: F Joshua Morgan - 3.4

Notes: The immediate issue USC poises is their height advantage. The Trojans are seventh nationally in average height and have four players that are 6-foot-8 or taller that get legitimate minutes either as a starter or as a bench player. Their entire starting lineup is no shorter than 6-foot-3.

Guard/forward Drew Peterson is a mismatch; at 6-foot-9, Peterson leads the team in both rebounds and assists per game. Either Jaylin Williams or Allen Flanigan will draw his assignment... probably.

Their best deep threat is Kobe Johnson (40.0% from beyond the arc), who is a typical 3-and-D wing that pairs well with leading scorer Boogie Ellis. Ellis, a transfer from Memphis, faced off against Auburn back in 2020 (shoutout the Jalen Green Bowl) where he went 3-of-10 from the floor in a close loss.

USC plays with decent tempo, they're insanely tall, and they play good interior defense (go figure). They took a season-opening 74-61 loss to FGCU and have since then only lost to Tennessee and Wisconsin, a pair of really good teams that play solid defense.

Auburn is going to have to do two things in order to win this game: play good interior defense (don't have a Memphis-like performance again) while hitting the outside shot at a decent clip. If the Tigers can hold steady from beyond the arc, they'll have a chance in this one.

Wendell Green Jr. is questionable for this game after suffering an ankle sprain against Georgia State. KD Johnson should be returning to the lineup after sitting out vs the Panthers (coach's decision).

Guard play will be key in this one, especially considering Auburn does not have the height here. Johnson can't afford to come off of the bench and go 4-of-12 or something similar. Auburn needs efficiency.

There aren't any lines out on the matchup, but here's what some basketball analytics sites say about the odds:

KenPom: 71-68, Auburn (61% chance to win)

Torvik: 69-68, Auburn (53% chance to win)

ESPN: Auburn (55.8% chance to win)

Our prediction:

Lance: USC

Zac: Auburn

Lindsay: -

Jeremy: Auburn

Jack: Auburn

Matt: Auburn