Could Florida men's basketball be an NCAA Tournament sleeper?
The last 10 men's Final Fours have seen (at least) one participant that was a No. 5 seed or lower. From San Diego State (No. 5 seed), Miami (No. 5 seed) and FAU (No. 9 seed) last year, to Auburn (No. 5 seed) in 2019 and Syracuse (No. 10 seed) in 2016, teams outside the top 16 overall seeds have proven to be highly capable of making a run come the NCAA Tournament.
It's worth taking a look, then, at who that team could be this time around. Well, on Tuesday night, we got a nice glimpse of at one possible contender – Florida, which drilled No. 16 Alabama 105-87 in the O'Dome. It marked the Gators' fourth Quadrant 1 victory of the season, the type of win that bolsters your résumé significantly – prior to the contest on Tuesday, bracketmatrix.com (which compiles every bracketology projection into one average) saw Florida as a No. 7 seed.
After recent close road losses to No. 17 South Carolina on Saturday and this same Crimson Tide bunch on Feb. 3 – both of which came after Florida had multi-possession leads in the second half – it must have been satisfying to start fast and never back down on Tuesday.
"We've talked very honestly about our second half and where we focus on the losses and that's normal, and that's understandable," head coach Todd Golden told reporters postgame. "But it's also really enjoyable on a night like tonight where it never gets under 18 or whatever, 15, 16 in the second half, you know, start to finish."
The Gators, in year two under Golden, play an entertaining brand of basketball. They work with pace, ranking 29th nationally in adjusted tempo (per KenPom). They boast the dynamic backcourt trio of Walter Clayton Jr. (17.1 points per game), Zyon Pullin (15.5 points per game) and Will Richard (11.4 points per game). And they attack the glass, ranking joint third nationally in offensive rebound rate (38.9%), per WarrenNolan.com.
That style was on full display in their home rematch with Alabama. Florida (21-9, 11-6 in the SEC) scored 27 fast-break points, collected 12 offensive rebounds and received 64 combined points from Clayton, Pullin and Richard.
Next up for the Gators is a Saturday road date with lowly Vanderbilt (8-21, 3-13). A win doesn't guarantee the Gators a top-four seed and coveted double-bye in the SEC Tournament in Nashville, though. The team needs a bit of help in the form of setbacks by Auburn, Alabama and/or Kentucky.
But a victory over the Commodores would send Florida into the postseason having won 11 of its last 14 games. After Golden's first season ended with a 16-17 (9-9) mark – the program's first losing record since Billy Donovan’s final season in 2014-15 – it's been quite the leap for the Gators.
Could that leap culminate in a deep run in the big dance? Given how much Florida (15th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 80th in adjusted defensive efficiency) resembles last year's Miami team (sixth in adjusted offensive efficiency, 99th in adjusted defensive efficiency), the blueprint is certainly there. It's up to Golden and his team to execute it.
"I feel confident that we can compete with anybody on a neutral floor over the next couple of weeks," the 38-year-old coach said. "So hopefully, we can stay the course and our guys will handle success the right way and make sure we get back to work on Thursday, preparing for Vanderbilt."
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