Final Four Picks: Who advances to the title game?
The Final Four is always a little bittersweet. Once again this has been a very exciting tournament and then it feels like it ends too suddenly.
This Final Four group is fascinating. Three first-time programs plus UConn. Pretty much nobody predicted the teams that we have gotten and to give you an idea of how wild this grouping is, my bracket pool has already been decided ... which means I can focus on just these games tonight.
The Huskies are the favorite to win today and again on Monday, but I truly believe that any of the four teams remaining could cut down the nets. More than who wins, I am just hoping for two good games tonight.
Game No. 1
San Diego State Aztecs vs. Florida Atlantic Owls
Line: Aztecs -2.5
SDSU is definitely the more recognizable of these programs. They have been strong in hoops for a while, riding defenses that have been among the best in the nation for years. The Pac-12 is sniffing around them and a hoops title might just put them over the top. In case you forgot, this team beat Alabama, the top seed in the tournament, a couple of games ago.
Florida Atlantic is the team nobody ever expected to be here. They play in C-USA, which has dominated the postseason, and all they have done is win and win and win. They have 35 wins already including an impressive comeback against Tennessee in the Sweet 16. You might not know the names but the Owls have everything they need to continue to win this weekend.
Both of these teams are "lucky" with this matchup. Usually, when low seeds get this far they have to face truly elite teams but that is not the case today. I do not see either side overwhelming the other but I am leaning toward SDSU on the strength of that defense. They really impressed me with that win over Alabama and this veteran team can handle some lulls which feel like they will occur.
This will be a closely contested game but the Aztecs win and cover.
Score Prediction: SDSU 71 - FAU 63
Game No. 2
Connecticut Huskies vs. Miami Hurricanes
Line: Huskies -5.5
These are two programs folks are more familiar with. UConn has dominated the Tournament and their win over Gonzaga was actually more shocking to me than some of the big upsets we have seen. I have just never seen the Zags beaten like that. The Huskies are the most balanced of the teams remaining, and there is next-level talents on the team. They are the favorites for good reason.
Miami plays in the ACC so even though it is a "football school" (or was) it is accustomed to playing big-time hoops. They have been impressive in advancing this far too, especially the way they came back to beat Texas in the last round. They are a classic overachieving program. They start nobody over 6-7 and in the win over the Longhorns basically used only six players. Wing Jordan Miller is emerging as a star in front of our very eyes.
You kind've have to make the Huskies the favorite based on what we have seen so far. The real question coming into this one is how will Miami handle the size of UConn. None of the teams they have played in the NCAAs really had that and they struggled against Duke in the ACC, another team that really had elite size.
I want to call the upset but UConn gets the win, and cover, in this spot. (Keep an eye on the Jordan Hawkins injury though)
Score Prediction: UConn 76 - Miami 68
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